2020 Offseason Thread

[NOLA]

I would do cartwheels for Schwarber/Benintendi.

[Bertz]

Fallout from the Yankees losing again will be interesting.

Immediate reaction is that you have to imagine they move on from Gary Sanchez this winter. I doubt they're a player for Willson, but I could see them on Realmuto, which would open up Contreras' market even more. And backfilling Willson's spot by taking a flyer on a nontendered Sanchez is something I wouldn't hate.

 

Also, I shudder to even speak this possibility into existence, but the Yankees probably want a #2 behind Cole, and Yu is basically the platonic ideal of what they look for in a pitcher.

[Named After Maddux]

Fallout from the Yankees losing again will be interesting.

Immediate reaction is that you have to imagine they move on from Gary Sanchez this winter. I doubt they're a player for Willson, but I could see them on Realmuto, which would open up Contreras' market even more. And backfilling Willson's spot by taking a flyer on a nontendered Sanchez is something I wouldn't hate.

 

Also, I shudder to even speak this possibility into existence, but the Yankees probably want a #2 behind Cole, and Yu is basically the platonic ideal of what they look for in a pitcher.

I think having Caratini allows you to take a chance on Sanchez. I could definitely see it as a stop gap for Amaya for a year. He still excels with barrel% and hard hit%, but he rocked a 36% K rate. I’d still look into seeing if you could get Kevin Plawecki from the Red Sox first.

 

With Yu’s no-trade clause through 2021, I’d be pretty shocked to see him traded unless it’s to TEX or maybe LA and that’s only if the Cubs tell him they plan to fully rebuild (granted that’s implied if you’re trading Darvish or Hendricks right now).

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SouthSideRyan]

My outrageous claim is that we non-tender Bryant

[Bertz]

 

This is a very interesting article from Sharma and Mooney. Pretty light on concrete info, although a few interesting things stood out:

 

- Non-tendering Schwarber is unlikely

- They're not going to tear it down to the studs, so don't worry about Yu and Kyle going anywhere

- From my reading, Kimbrel is the only guy whom they indicate is more likely than not to go

- Contreras clearly makes the most sense to trade on paper, but the team really values his off the field makeup so they're reticent

- Bryant's clearly on the block, but they expect he's in that awkward "more valuable to us than in trade" zone because of his salary

 

Taking all that together, I imagine they're going to trade Dirty Craig and one of Bryant/Contreras. I imagine they try early to trade KB, and if they don't like any offers pivot to Willson right after Realmuto signs. Everyone else gets a chance going into 2021 to rebound.

 

So if we use Brett's ~$180M payroll estimate, that'd give the team ~$35M to spend in FA if Contreras goes, and ~$50M if Bryant does.

[Clem Fandango]

 

So if we use Brett's ~$180M payroll estimate, that'd give the team ~$35M to spend in FA if Contreras goes, and ~$50M if Bryant does.

 

Do we really think that if they clear up that payroll that they're going to actually spend the money that they saved?

[champaignchris]

 

This is a very interesting article from Sharma and Mooney. Pretty light on concrete info, although a few interesting things stood out:

 

- Non-tendering Schwarber is unlikely

- They're not going to tear it down to the studs, so don't worry about Yu and Kyle going anywhere

- From my reading, Kimbrel is the only guy whom they indicate is more likely than not to go

- Contreras clearly makes the most sense to trade on paper, but the team really values his off the field makeup so they're reticent

- Bryant's clearly on the block, but they expect he's in that awkward "more valuable to us than in trade" zone because of his salary

 

Taking all that together, I imagine they're going to trade Dirty Craig and one of Bryant/Contreras. I imagine they try early to trade KB, and if they don't like any offers pivot to Willson right after Realmuto signs. Everyone else gets a chance going into 2021 to rebound.

 

So if we use Brett's ~$180M payroll estimate, that'd give the team ~$35M to spend in FA if Contreras goes, and ~$50M if Bryant does.

 

So what do the Cubs do in free agency with $35MM?

 

Someone like Marcus Strohman as starting pitching. Good enough now to contribute. Young enough to still be contributing after the soft rebuild. Probably can be had for less than $20MM per year.

 

Center fielder Maybin replacement (Bradley too expensive? Hernandez from the Dodgers?). Middle infielder Kipnis replacement (Schoop?). Dumpster diving for a catcher with up side (Zunino?). Dumpster dive for the bullpen again.

 

Probably good enough to compete in the Central. If not, pull the plug at mid-season and trade everyone.

[Bertz]

 

So if we use Brett's ~$180M payroll estimate, that'd give the team ~$35M to spend in FA if Contreras goes, and ~$50M if Bryant does.

 

Do we really think that if they clear up that payroll that they're going to actually spend the money that they saved?

 

That'd be about $30M less than last year. We'll see how it plays out but the indications we've gotten are that most teams are cutting spending by something in the 10-20% range. Cubs were at 210 last year so 180 would be a 15% cut. It's a very rough guess.

 

So what do the Cubs do in free agency with $35MM?

 

Someone like Marcus Strohman as starting pitching. Good enough now to contribute. Young enough to still be contributing after the soft rebuild. Probably can be had for less than $20MM per year.

 

Center fielder Maybin replacement (Bradley too expensive? Hernandez from the Dodgers?). Middle infielder Kipnis replacement (Schoop?). Dumpster diving for a catcher with up side (Zunino?). Dumpster dive for the bullpen again.

 

Probably good enough to compete in the Central. If not, pull the plug at mid-season and trade everyone.

 

I'd personally do something like Ha-Seong Kim (15ish), a decent #3 starter (10ish), and then use the rest to build out the bench as much as you can (like you said a CF, 2B, and C). But if they don't get Kim I would imagine it looks like what you said, maybe going a little higher in CF (JBJ?) and a little lower on the SP front.

[squally1313]

Today my FA wish list is:

 

Marcus Stroman - The Corbin to Darvish's and Hendricks' Scherzer and Strasburg, seems to be crazy undervalued heading into FA

 

Sean Doolittle (and/or Kirby Yates) - 1 year deals to set up potential draft picks in 2022

 

 

Stroman seems like he'd be perfect as like a 90% version of Hendricks...Toronto's defense was terrible, putting him in front of ours should work out perfectly.

 

I want Doolittle just to enhance my enjoyment of this team. The fact that he's a really good pitcher when healthy is almost a separate discussion.

[Cubswin11]

I want nothing to do with Stroman. He’s battled injuries, granted no serious arm injuries, didn’t pitch at all in 2020 and doesn’t even have 290 IP combined between 2018 and 2019. I also just hate his profile, especially because I think he goes for a decent contract. I’d rather use the money he takes on 2-3 separate things and even prefer bringing Q back over him anticipating Q takes a fraction of Stroman.

[Cubswin11]

I want nothing to do with Stroman. He’s battled injuries, granted no serious arm injuries, didn’t pitch at all in 2020 and doesn’t even have 290 IP combined between 2018 and 2019. I also just hate his profile, especially because I think he goes for a decent contract. I’d rather use the money he takes on 2-3 separate things and even prefer bringing Q back over him anticipating Q takes a fraction of Stroman.

 

OTOH this is because Quintana sucks

Stroman sucks too and I feel Q probably can give you more innings on a reasonable projection and Stroman carries more volatility with being able to cover innings. And innings will be a key in 2021 since guys didn’t pitch as much this year. It doesn’t even need to be Q over Stroman. Give me 2 guys who can reasonably give you ~165 innings of ~4.25 ERA baseball next year for the price of what I expect Stroman to get.

 

I just don’t have any interest in a Hamels type 1 year deal or Lance Lynn+ multi year deal on Stroman given his lack of innings the last 3 years and just overall pitching profile I do not like.

[squally1313]

Can you expand on the 'Stroman sucks' argument? Never had a FIP or xFIP above 4, never given up more than a home run per 9. I'm also fine bringing back Q, so not really an either/or for me, but I see Stroman as a huge ground ball guy going from Toronto (28th in defensive fWAR from 2017-2019, giving up the 7th highest BABIP in that stretch) to a Cubs team that had, from what I remember, the best infield defense in baseball last year (which shouldn't get any worse with KB/Baez/Rizz staying and Kipnis leaving). Know he only went 100ish innings in 2018, but that looks like it was mainly blisters related, and then he had a torn calf before he opted out last year...not really something I'd worry about going forward. With the blister issue, he's still 29th in baseball in total innings from 2017-2019.

[Cubswin11]

Stroman sucks too and I feel Q probably can give you more innings on a reasonable projection and Stroman carries more volatility with being able to cover innings. And innings will be a key in 2021 since guys didn’t pitch as much this year. It doesn’t even need to be Q over Stroman. Give me 2 guys who can reasonably give you ~165 innings of ~4.25 ERA baseball next year for the price of what I expect Stroman to get.

 

I just don’t have any interest in a Hamels type 1 year deal or Lance Lynn+ multi year deal on Stroman given his lack of innings the last 3 years and just overall pitching profile I do not like.

 

- What about Quintana suggests more innings? Stroman threw more innings in 2019, almost 10% more actually, in their last full season

- Who would be the two guys that can reasonably expected to do that and for cheap?

 

If it's a certainty thing, I agree it should be as much as possilbe, and the choices are guy who opted out after a calf injury, guy who got hurt and threw 10 innings after a weak 2019, and ?? then I mean....guy with the calf injury pretty easily

Q has gone 170+ innings every year since 2013 and has the overall cleaner injury history in recent years. He at least pitched some this year while Stroman was completely shut down, Stroman also has a history of leg injuries and had a shoulder issue in 2018 plus he recently has a year where he barely topped 100 IP.

 

Q is just the safer bet to me to meet the ~165IP and ~4.25 ERA threshold I’m looking for as the mid rotation starter add (again I think covering innings pitching even mediocre is gonna be a premium in 2021) and think he’ll be cheaper than Stroman (since Stroman is younger and think is just thought of more highly). I just don’t see the upside in Stroman (injury history and profile) that it’s worth paying him. I’d rather go another way.

 

Other guys who I prefer for a fraction of Stroman and you can take 2-3 chances on for Stroman’s money does include Q but also (and these guys carry risk, but again give me 2-3 of them over Stroman) Desclafani, Minor, Nova, Odorizzi, and Richards off the top of my head (haven’t looked at a FA list recently). Give me Q and one of names mentioned for the amount Stroman goes for. Or save some money for building out the offense.

 

Again this is more I just don’t like Stroman for the likely

money thing so take a few shots on other guys for the same money or less than me liking any of these guys more than him.

[squally1313]

Stroman sucks too and I feel Q probably can give you more innings on a reasonable projection and Stroman carries more volatility with being able to cover innings. And innings will be a key in 2021 since guys didn’t pitch as much this year. It doesn’t even need to be Q over Stroman. Give me 2 guys who can reasonably give you ~165 innings of ~4.25 ERA baseball next year for the price of what I expect Stroman to get.

 

I just don’t have any interest in a Hamels type 1 year deal or Lance Lynn+ multi year deal on Stroman given his lack of innings the last 3 years and just overall pitching profile I do not like.

 

- What about Quintana suggests more innings? Stroman threw more innings in 2019, almost 10% more actually, in their last full season

- Who would be the two guys that can reasonably expected to do that and for cheap?

 

If it's a certainty thing, I agree it should be as much as possilbe, and the choices are guy who opted out after a calf injury, guy who got hurt and threw 10 innings after a weak 2019, and ?? then I mean....guy with the calf injury pretty easily

Q has gone 170+ innings every year since 2013 and has the overall cleaner injury history in recent years. He at least pitched some this year while Stroman was completely shut down, Stroman also has a history of leg injuries and had a shoulder issue in 2018 plus he recently has a year where he barely topped 100 IP.

 

Q is just the safer bet to me to meet the ~165IP and ~4.25 ERA threshold I’m looking for as the mid rotation starter add (again I think covering innings pitching even mediocre is gonna be a premium in 2021) and think he’ll be cheaper than Stroman (since Stroman is younger and think is just thought of more highly). I just don’t see the upside in Stroman (injury history and profile) that it’s worth paying him. I’d rather go another way.

 

Other guys who I prefer for a fraction of Stroman and you can take 2-3 chances on for Stroman’s money does include Q but also (and these guys carry risk, but again give me 2-3 of them over Stroman) Desclafani, Minor, Nova, Odorizzi, and Richards off the top of my head (haven’t looked at a FA list recently). Give me Q and one of names mentioned for the amount Stroman goes for. Or save some money for building out the offense.

 

Again this is more I just don’t like Stroman for the likely

money thing so take a few shots on other guys for the same money or less than me liking any of these guys more than him.

 

Desclafani, Minor, and Nova suck in a non-debatable way. Just resign Lester if you want to throw someone out there to give up 4 runs in 6 innings once a week. Richards has pitched about 200 innings in the last 5 years total. Odorizzi put up a 2.6 fWAR in 2018 and then a 4.3 in 2019, and then only pitched 13 innings in 2020, so not sure why you'd think he's getting significantly less than Stroman.

[Cubswin11]

Can you expand on the 'Stroman sucks' argument? Never had a FIP or xFIP above 4, never given up more than a home run per 9. I'm also fine bringing back Q, so not really an either/or for me, but I see Stroman as a huge ground ball guy going from Toronto (28th in defensive fWAR from 2017-2019, giving up the 7th highest BABIP in that stretch) to a Cubs team that had, from what I remember, the best infield defense in baseball last year (which shouldn't get any worse with KB/Baez/Rizz staying and Kipnis leaving). Know he only went 100ish innings in 2018, but that looks like it was mainly blisters related, and then he had a torn calf before he opted out last year...not really something I'd worry about going forward. With the blister issue, he's still 29th in baseball in total innings from 2017-2019.

I think he sucks relative to contract he’s going to get (estimate are 5+ years and $100+ million from what I’ve seen) and think there’s a decent amount of downside and limited upside and just prefer alternative routes for the money.

 

The leg injury history is a thing at this point. Knee, hamstring and calf now. He had elbow issues in 2018 as well. The GB rate is great but his stuff/velo isn’t special. He doesn’t strike guys out and his walk rates are just kinda okay and not great (64th of 132 qualified pitchers in BB% since 2017 and for a guy with his lack of stuff/velo that’s a little troubling to me). As he ages in to his 30s and his stuff/velo slips due to age he doesn’t have a ton of margin, imo.

 

Again, this is all through the point of view he’s getting 5+ and 100+. I don’t want anything to do with him at that and think there’s red flags. I just don’t see how he’s really worth it to us on a 1 year prove it deal or long term deal with the other needs we have and spending restrictions to whatever degree.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Last offseason four SP got 5+ years: Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, and Bumgarner. Only Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, and Ryu got 20+M AAV, regardless of length. I struggle to think Stroman is going to get within a thousand miles of 5/100 given that he has just one good season in the last 3 because of injury, ineffectiveness, and opting out of 2020. Plus he's turning 30 next year and has always had an uphill perception battle because he's small.

[Cubswin11]

 

- What about Quintana suggests more innings? Stroman threw more innings in 2019, almost 10% more actually, in their last full season

- Who would be the two guys that can reasonably expected to do that and for cheap?

 

If it's a certainty thing, I agree it should be as much as possilbe, and the choices are guy who opted out after a calf injury, guy who got hurt and threw 10 innings after a weak 2019, and ?? then I mean....guy with the calf injury pretty easily

Q has gone 170+ innings every year since 2013 and has the overall cleaner injury history in recent years. He at least pitched some this year while Stroman was completely shut down, Stroman also has a history of leg injuries and had a shoulder issue in 2018 plus he recently has a year where he barely topped 100 IP.

 

Q is just the safer bet to me to meet the ~165IP and ~4.25 ERA threshold I’m looking for as the mid rotation starter add (again I think covering innings pitching even mediocre is gonna be a premium in 2021) and think he’ll be cheaper than Stroman (since Stroman is younger and think is just thought of more highly). I just don’t see the upside in Stroman (injury history and profile) that it’s worth paying him. I’d rather go another way.

 

Other guys who I prefer for a fraction of Stroman and you can take 2-3 chances on for Stroman’s money does include Q but also (and these guys carry risk, but again give me 2-3 of them over Stroman) Desclafani, Minor, Nova, Odorizzi, and Richards off the top of my head (haven’t looked at a FA list recently). Give me Q and one of names mentioned for the amount Stroman goes for. Or save some money for building out the offense.

 

Again this is more I just don’t like Stroman for the likely

money thing so take a few shots on other guys for the same money or less than me liking any of these guys more than him.

 

Desclafani, Minor, and Nova suck in a non-debatable way. Just resign Lester if you want to throw someone out there to give up 4 runs in 6 innings once a week. Richards has pitched about 200 innings in the last 5 years total. Odorizzi put up a 2.6 fWAR in 2018 and then a 4.3 in 2019, and then only pitched 13 innings in 2020, so not sure why you'd think he's getting significantly less than Stroman.

Minor was worth more WAR than Stroman in 2019 and I think he’ll be cheaper. Desclafani undoubtedly sucked this year but the stuff is there (his FB velo was the highest it’s ever been this year), he will be extremely cheap and think he has the parts to be a decent SP. He’d also be the second or third guy brought in and have to earn a spot as the 4/5. Same reasoning for Nova there mostly. And yeah Richards carries risk but his stuff is generally back and he’s intriguing for the 4/5th role. Give me Q back and 1 of those guys for less money along with internal options to fill out the rotation (Adbert/Mills early then Marquez/Abbott during the year). I thought Odorizzi was more 33/34 and not just 30, you’re right that he’ll probably get a decent deal.

[champaignchris]

Taijuan Walker is another free agent starting pitcher that I haven’t seen mentioned yet. Only 28 and had a nice (60 game) season this year. But has significant injury history, only pitching 14 innings in 18-19 combined.

 

That said, I just don’t see Stroman being THAT pricey. Looking at other pitchers contracts from 2019, he’s not getting a Wheeler/MadBum contract. I’d assume Stroman would be getting less than Ryu (4 years, $80MM) and more than Kyle Gibson (3 years, $28MM with incentives). There’s a lot of space in there, but is 3 years and $45MM reasonable? I don’t think you’re getting two of those other guys - Gauseman, Paxton, Ray, Richards, Minor - for that price.

 

I think Odorrizzi - who took the 1 year qualifying offer last year - will be pretty comparable, maybe slightly cheaper, and I’d be perfectly happy if he were the guy instead of Stroman.

[squally1313]

Can you expand on the 'Stroman sucks' argument? Never had a FIP or xFIP above 4, never given up more than a home run per 9. I'm also fine bringing back Q, so not really an either/or for me, but I see Stroman as a huge ground ball guy going from Toronto (28th in defensive fWAR from 2017-2019, giving up the 7th highest BABIP in that stretch) to a Cubs team that had, from what I remember, the best infield defense in baseball last year (which shouldn't get any worse with KB/Baez/Rizz staying and Kipnis leaving). Know he only went 100ish innings in 2018, but that looks like it was mainly blisters related, and then he had a torn calf before he opted out last year...not really something I'd worry about going forward. With the blister issue, he's still 29th in baseball in total innings from 2017-2019.

I think he sucks relative to contract he’s going to get (estimate are 5+ years and $100+ million from what I’ve seen) and think there’s a decent amount of downside and limited upside and just prefer alternative routes for the money.

 

The leg injury history is a thing at this point. Knee, hamstring and calf now. He had elbow issues in 2018 as well. The GB rate is great but his stuff/velo isn’t special. He doesn’t strike guys out and his walk rates are just kinda okay and not great (64th of 132 qualified pitchers in BB% since 2017 and for a guy with his lack of stuff/velo that’s a little troubling to me). As he ages in to his 30s and his stuff/velo slips due to age he doesn’t have a ton of margin, imo.

 

Again, this is all through the point of view he’s getting 5+ and 100+. I don’t want anything to do with him at that and think there’s red flags. I just don’t see how he’s really worth it to us on a 1 year prove it deal or long term deal with the other needs we have and spending restrictions to whatever degree.

 

I don't know all the background on his injuries, but as mentioned above, it hasn't hurt him yet in terms of innings pitched. Walk rate isn't overly impressive, but GB rate is elite, as is (relatedly) his home run rate. If it's really 5+ years, then sure, we can pass, but can't see him getting something like that.

[Cubswin11]

Can you expand on the 'Stroman sucks' argument? Never had a FIP or xFIP above 4, never given up more than a home run per 9. I'm also fine bringing back Q, so not really an either/or for me, but I see Stroman as a huge ground ball guy going from Toronto (28th in defensive fWAR from 2017-2019, giving up the 7th highest BABIP in that stretch) to a Cubs team that had, from what I remember, the best infield defense in baseball last year (which shouldn't get any worse with KB/Baez/Rizz staying and Kipnis leaving). Know he only went 100ish innings in 2018, but that looks like it was mainly blisters related, and then he had a torn calf before he opted out last year...not really something I'd worry about going forward. With the blister issue, he's still 29th in baseball in total innings from 2017-2019.

I think he sucks relative to contract he’s going to get (estimate are 5+ years and $100+ million from what I’ve seen) and think there’s a decent amount of downside and limited upside and just prefer alternative routes for the money.

 

The leg injury history is a thing at this point. Knee, hamstring and calf now. He had elbow issues in 2018 as well. The GB rate is great but his stuff/velo isn’t special. He doesn’t strike guys out and his walk rates are just kinda okay and not great (64th of 132 qualified pitchers in BB% since 2017 and for a guy with his lack of stuff/velo that’s a little troubling to me). As he ages in to his 30s and his stuff/velo slips due to age he doesn’t have a ton of margin, imo.

 

Again, this is all through the point of view he’s getting 5+ and 100+. I don’t want anything to do with him at that and think there’s red flags. I just don’t see how he’s really worth it to us on a 1 year prove it deal or long term deal with the other needs we have and spending restrictions to whatever degree.

 

I don't know all the background on his injuries, but as mentioned above, it hasn't hurt him yet in terms of innings pitched. Walk rate isn't overly impressive, but GB rate is elite, as is (relatedly) his home run rate. If it's really 5+ years, then sure, we can pass, but can't see him getting something like that.

He missed half a year in 2018 with shoulder (not elbow like I mistyped above) and other injuries and just got over 100IP, 2019 he was normal then this last year was wiped out due to injury. So 2 of the last 3 years his IP have been affected by injuries. The 5+ 100+ I got from a quick search and a few articles. Maybe that changes but it’s been consistently in that range. But yeah if he comes for more around half that or more I’d be in I guess if we have other money to spend on the offense and another SP. But if we have ~15 AAV to use on a FA I’d rather get in on Brantley or DJ and then go for the volume approach on SP adds (Q+a cheap guy) vs spending it all on 1 guy for the rotation.

[Cubswin11]

Anyone else very pro trading Ian Happ? He was the Cubs' weakest MiL performer of this starting crew and still hasn't been good over a full season. They also gained an extra year of control last year, he isn't a FA until after 2023, and who's really thinking that far ahead about these Cubs? He's even more of a sell high candidate on Contreras tbh as the weakest defensive starter now and totally definitely best hitter

I think he’s made legit corrections and improvements to be a pretty good MLB player moving forward (3 +/- .5 win player with maybe 1-2, 4-5ish win year if things break right) but if the return is right I’d be fine moving him. He’d have to bring you back something(s) that helps now though. If you’re trading him and his control for prospects 1+ year away you might as well blow everything up and bottom for 1-2 years even if it means trading guys for ~60 cents on the dollar (Bryant, Javy, Schwarbs).

[squally1313]

In terms of the Stroman discussion, I believe he's better (ie, will produce more WAR over the next 3-5 years, especially with his profile and the Cubs infield defense) than any pitcher mentioned above. He's not twice as good as all those guys, and so if he's actually getting a contract that doubles everyone else, it's a different story.

 

For Happ, it all depends on your goals for the team, and the decisions you make elsewhere. If you want to make another couple runs here with whatevers left of the old core, I doubt you can get someone who will produce more in 2021/2022 than Happ, and I'd rather just find someone who can hit lefties to protect him (throw a nobody prospect at the White Sox for Leury Garcia, for example). If this is more of a rebuild (which would imply present and future cost constraints), then yeah, could probably find someone/someones who could reset the service clock and give you more value down the road.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think he’s made legit corrections and improvements to be a pretty good MLB player moving forward (3 +/- .5 win player with maybe 1-2, 4-5ish win year if things break right) but if the return is right I’d be fine moving him. He’d have to bring you back something(s) that helps now though. If you’re trading him and his control for prospects 1+ year away you might as well blow everything up and bottom for 1-2 years even if it means trading guys for ~60 cents on the dollar (Bryant, Javy, Schwarbs).

 

Agreed, imagine that would be the plan. Thanks to the recency of his success, at least nominally being able to claim being a CFer, and the years of control it's at least arguable he is their biggest trade chip for exactly that right now

 

I believe he can hit some, but find it interesting he's not crazy different from the hitter he was during his ML debut less than two years after being drafted:

 

Ian Happ 2017 (413 PAs): .349 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 67% contact rate, 31.2% K rate

Ian Happ 2018-2020 (849 PAs): .347 wOBA, 116 wRC+, 66% contact rate, 31.7% K rate

 

Long story short: he's a typical Theo Cub. Flashes/stretches of what you want him to be, but ultimately too flawed to be of real long term value beyond "this guy is decent," and the window is long missed for them being a serious trade asset.

[Bertz]

In terms of the Stroman discussion, I believe he's better (ie, will produce more WAR over the next 3-5 years, especially with his profile and the Cubs infield defense) than any pitcher mentioned above. He's not twice as good as all those guys, and so if he's actually getting a contract that doubles everyone else, it's a different story.

 

For Happ, it all depends on your goals for the team, and the decisions you make elsewhere. If you want to make another couple runs here with whatevers left of the old core, I doubt you can get someone who will produce more in 2021/2022 than Happ, and I'd rather just find someone who can hit lefties to protect him (throw a nobody prospect at the White Sox for Leury Garcia, for example). If this is more of a rebuild (which would imply present and future cost constraints), then yeah, could probably find someone/someones who could reset the service clock and give you more value down the road.

 

I think this is pretty much exactly where I am.

 

On the rotation, I'm wondering about more of a volume approach. Like if Stroman costs $20M, for that same money could you get James Paxton or Jake Odorizzi on a $15M pillow contract as well as someone in the Alex Wood tier for $5M? It might be too risky given that Alzolay is also unlikely to give you more than 120 innings, but I think it's interesting to consider.

[Bertz]

 

Holy crap