2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[Cubswin11]

Bryant is by far the least likely of these 3, imo, but his name still keeps coming up it seems.

 

 

[Cubswin11]

Abreu and Odorizzi accepted their QO’s. I believe everyone else declined theirs or will.

[Banedon]

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[champaignchris]

Abreu and Odorizzi accepted their QO’s. I believe everyone else declined theirs or will.

 

I was a little surprised the Twins QO’d Odorizzi. He’s smart to take it. He’ll make more this year than he would have during the first year of any multi-year, and then he’ll be able to get more as a free agent next year with no draft pick attached assuming he’s basically same pitcher in 2020 that he’s been for the last 5 or 6 years.

[Bertz]

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Xander Bogaerts is probably the closest comp, and he got 6/120 last winter. That being said he was a year younger, a little better, and a year closer to FA, so maybe more like 6/100?

[Cubswin11]

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Xander Bogaerts is probably the closest comp, and he got 6/120 last winter. That being said he was a year younger, a little better, and a year closer to FA, so maybe more like 6/100?

AAV seems right given the two Arb years. Javy’s gonna make ~$9 mil this year and ~$13 next year. Xander is at $20 mil a year in the FA years he extended to. So yeah let’s call it 6/110, 7/125, 8/140 or so.

Edited November 15, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Backtobanks]

This Cleveland writer expresses some doubts that the Dodgers and Indians line up for a Lindor trade:

 

https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2019/11/its-going-to-be-an-offseason-of-trade-rumors-for-cleveland-indians-francisco-lindor.html

 

Some media generated trades have Lindor headed to the Dodgers or Yankees. The Dodgers, however, reportedly do not want to include outfielder Alex Verdugo, second baseman Gavin Lux and/or right-hander Dustin May, three of their better prospects. It’s hard to believe the Indians would send Lindor to the West Coast this offseason with two years of control left and not receive at least two of those players along with some spare change.

 

It should be noted that last winter rumor upon rumor said the Dodgers and Indians were talking about a deal for Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. How did that work out? The Indians exercised Kluber’s 2020 option for $17.5 million last month. They did trade Bauer, but not to the Dodgers and not last winter.

 

I doubt the Cubs would be as slow to give up Happ, Hoerner, and/or Alzolay/Marquez just sayin' Indians!

 

Why don't we cut out the middle man and trade Happ, Horner, and Alzolay/Marquez for Verdugo, Lux, and May? :good:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think they’re way more concerned about LT value than absolute value, so i don’t see much benefit to backloading the first few years of a Baez (or Bryant) extension.

[Bertz]

That former high ranking MLB executive is definitely just Ralph

[Cubswin11]

What about a deal that helps the Cubs achieve payroll flexibility in 2020 and 2021 and locks Báez in long-term?

 

A former high-ranking MLB executive suggested a deal structure that pays Báez $10 million in 2020, $16 million in 2021, plus six additional years at an average annual value of $23 million. That would bring the total value of the contract to $164 million.

 

Add in two club options for an additional two seasons at $30 million each and it allows Báez to have the largest contract of all active shortstops in MLB. Total value of the deal: $224 million; guaranteed value of the deal: $164 million.

 

A deal structured like that gives the Cubs certainty with one of their most talented and marketable players and protects Báez from serious injury for the rest of his career.

 

Would he sign a deal structured like that? I know I would. There is no greater feeling in the world than long-term financial security. A deal structured like this is a win-win for both sides.

 

Yeah see, I just think that kind of contract offer (total value and guaranteed - sneaking some NFL contract language in there yaaaaaaaaaaay) is way more likely in FA than an extension

Dude, MLB teams have been structuring deals this way for years with option years being “not guaranteed.” It has nothing to do with your thinking the MLB is being NFL’ized.

[Cubswin11]

I think they’re way more concerned about LT value than absolute value, so i don’t see much benefit to backloading the first few years of a Baez (or Bryant) extension.

Also when most guys are extended with buying out Arb years isn’t it pretty common practice to still pay them around what they would’ve gotten in Arb still in those years? Javy is pegged between 9-10 this year and probably 14-16 next year. In any extension I’d assume he’s getting around that in 20 and 21. I don’t know where the writer thinks there’s savings. In any extension Javy isn’t getting $20+ mil this year in salary.

 

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a guy sign an extension buying out Arb years where he’s making like 2x or more money in the new deal in the Arb years.

[Cubswin11]

Dude, MLB teams have been structuring deals this way for years with option years being “not guaranteed.” It has nothing to do with your thinking the MLB is being NFL’ized.

 

My mistake, MLB contracts reported with a huge distinction between guaranteed money and total value is a tale as told as time. Nothing NFL-y about that. My mistake, nothing to see here and the owners are great guys baseball's going great I mean Will Smith signed yesterday even with a QO so see trust

I don’t give a horsefeathers how they’re reported, the fact is they’ve been structured that way for a long time with option years. This is nothing new or nefarious.

[UMFan83]

Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

 

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)

2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)

2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)

2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)

2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)

[squally1313]

Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

 

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)

2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)

2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)

2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)

2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)

 

Well for 2018, if trading TLS doesn't qualify then signing Descalso definitely doesn't qualify, at least in hindsight. Could probably just leave last offseason off the list, at least until Kimbrel.

 

I think you'll see transactions continue to get pushed back. Even something like the potential Morrow signing, it was hinted that there have been good discussions but they want to wait until after 12/1 because of 40 man roster considerations.

[UMFan83]

Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

 

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)

2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)

2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)

2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)

2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)

 

Well for 2018, if trading TLS doesn't qualify then signing Descalso definitely doesn't qualify, at least in hindsight. Could probably just leave last offseason off the list, at least until Kimbrel.

 

I think you'll see transactions continue to get pushed back. Even something like the potential Morrow signing, it was hinted that there have been good discussions but they want to wait until after 12/1 because of 40 man roster considerations.

 

Yeah...but I do think the trading him away was more notewrothy to us than the trading for him. I was more looking at the first time we actually had a noteworthy transaction to discuss. I do remember us discussing the trading for TLS, but it was more about us trading Vizcaino. By the time TLS became a world champion who went AWOL during the season, then later became a board meme, trading him away was noteworthy enough.

[Bertz]

Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

 

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)

2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)

2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)

2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)

2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)

 

I do expect that we see some activity earlier this year. I think the broad strokes of the offseason is likely to be:

1. Trade Willson for pitching

2. Use FA and/or small trades to complement the primary group of position players

3. Possible additional pitching moves

 

Because these tracks are largely independent, and because we are not shopping at the top of the market. I see no reason to not expect activity before or during the winter meetings.

 

On the flipside Contreras might not be traded for *just* pitching (e.g. Manuel Margot), so it could still muk things up. Also, if a KB trade is legitimately being explored, that DEFINITELY holds everything else up.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.

[Named After Maddux]

For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.

 

He's what Almora should be. He's relatively cheap salary-wise, strong defensive CF, and hits well against LHP. Last year he mashed lefties (.886 OPS, wRC+ of 139 against LHP in 2019). He also had a strong prospect pedigree.

 

If his cost is high, I'd stay away. But if he could be acquired as a second player in a trade (like for Quintana) or third player in a Contreras trade then I'd like it. He is an ideal platoon bat with Heyward.

[Backtobanks]

For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.

 

Pros: he's a CF, he's young, he's cheap and controlled.

 

Cons: he's not very good.

[Bertz]

For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.

 

Good contact, good D, hits lefties well...he's what Almora is supposed to be basically. Certainly not a guy you pencil in as a starter (though young enough it could still happen), but the OF is inevitably gonna have a bunch of platoons/timeshares in 2020 and he complements the current group well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.

 

The sales pitch for Margot:

 

- He's entering his prime at 25, and his plate discipline(walk rate and O-Swing) took a step forward last year

- He has pedigree, entering 2017 he was a consensus Top 25 overall prospect and had made it through AAA

- Theo's red sox signed him out of the DR (I suspect this is mostly trivia, but it doesn't hurt)

- He's a strong defender, career +6 UZR and +9 DRS

- He's very capable against LHP, .331 wOBA career and .383 last year

- As a Padre, you can dream that on a different team where he's not playing 100 games in Petco + ATT + Dodger Stadium, he'll be in a greater position to succeed

- He did well enough last year that you can at least see the good version of Almora as a likely floor, but not so well that he's likely to command a ransom in trade

- He makes above average contact, which balances the roster slightly

 

There's probably some other nuanced points to make(like he's strangely not great on fastballs, which could be construed as an inability to make the leap or an easier mechanical/approach fix than picking up sliders), but that's the long and short of it.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Ask a question, get some quality knowledge. Thanks everyone.

[Backtobanks]

If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF

 

 

His stats show he hits better and with more power at Petco.

 

Home - .245/.313/.400/.713

Away - .251/.290/.388/.678

[Bull]

Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

 

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)

2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)

2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)

2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)

2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)

ahh, the Tommy LaStella era. Greatest time in the history of Cubs baseball.

[David]

If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF

 

 

His stats show he hits better and with more power at Petco.

 

Home - .245/.313/.400/.713

Away - .251/.290/.388/.678

 

in 2019, margot had a wRC+ of 69 at home (nice) and 95 on the road, FWIW. wOBA of .270 at home vs .319 on road.

 

his walk rate at home was almost double his road walk rate though, which is weird.