Who gets traded in the offseason?

[sneakypower]

also i can tell many of you paid little attention in the 2nd half (understandable, really)

 

[attachment=0]ks-2nd-half.PNG[/attachment]

[UMFan83]

also i can tell many of you paid little attention in the 2nd half (understandable, really)

 

[attachment=0]ks-2nd-half.PNG[/attachment]

 

From Aug 1st on he was 3rd best hitter in the NL by wRC+ and 4th best by wOBP.

[Sammy Sofa]

Being resoundingly mediocre or ass for half of the season and then pretty good or even awesome the other half is basically the patented Kyle Schwarber Specialty at this point.

 

2017:

.178 .300 .394 .694

.253 .335 .559 .894

 

2018:

.249 .375 .498 .873

.221 .323 .417 .740

 

Which order will he do it in THIS time?

[chopsx9]

Being resoundingly mediocre or ass for half of the season and then pretty good or even awesome the other half is basically the patented Kyle Schwarber Specialty at this point.

 

2017:

.178 .300 .394 .694

.253 .335 .559 .894

 

2018:

.249 .375 .498 .873

.221 .323 .417 .740

 

Which order will he do it in THIS time?

Well the numbers have gotten better each year so if that trend continues it won't really matter.

[Sammy Sofa]

Being resoundingly mediocre or ass for half of the season and then pretty good or even awesome the other half is basically the patented Kyle Schwarber Specialty at this point.

 

2017:

.178 .300 .394 .694

.253 .335 .559 .894

 

2018:

.249 .375 .498 .873

.221 .323 .417 .740

 

Which order will he do it in THIS time?

Well the numbers have gotten better each year so if that trend continues it won't really matter.

 

He basically ends up being the same dude value-wise unless he gets the inexplicably 2018 defensive bounce from Fangraphs again.

 

I'm not saying he's terrible, but we've done this dance three seasons in a row now, and he probably just is what is he is at this point. He's a useful player for the Cubs, but I seriously doubt there are any teams looking at him as someone they'd want to give up a serious return to acquire. Very streaky 2-3 WAR players whose defensive value wildly fluctuates at best aren't exactly a hot commodity.

[Cubswin11]

Being resoundingly mediocre or ass for half of the season and then pretty good or even awesome the other half is basically the patented Kyle Schwarber Specialty at this point.

 

2017:

.178 .300 .394 .694

.253 .335 .559 .894

 

2018:

.249 .375 .498 .873

.221 .323 .417 .740

 

Which order will he do it in THIS time?

Well the numbers have gotten better each year so if that trend continues it won't really matter.

 

He basically ends up being the same dude value-wise unless he gets the inexplicably 2018 defensive bounce from Fangraphs again.

 

I'm not saying he's terrible, but we've done this dance three seasons in a row now, and he probably just is what is he is at this point. He's a useful player for the Cubs, but I seriously doubt there are any teams looking at him as someone they'd want to give up a serious return to acquire. Very streaky 2-3 WAR players whose defensive value wildly fluctuates at best aren't exactly a hot commodity.

I think that’s why you keep him and add a bench player who compliments him for his deficiencies and move Contreras who has a clearer value/is easier to replace and maybe Bryant if some team has The Godfather offer (I don’t think it’s out there but you never know).

[squally1313]

Yeah, Schwarber as a full time outfielder putting up 2.5-3 WAR isn't all that exciting, both for us and for another team. He put up a .900 OPS against RHP and a .756 against LHP. You obviously can't eliminate all his PAs against LHPs, but it's safe to say most of his value came from his 486 PAs against RHP, and he got none or negative value in his 124 PAs against LHPs. If you can find someone to take those ABs, then you could be looking at 4-4.5 WAR from the left field spot, which is definitely appealing.

 

Looking at left fielder stats against lefties, there are names like Jordan Luplow, Ian Desmond, Chris Taylor that could maybe serve that role. Of course, a player like that might be better served doing this with Heyward instead of Schwarber, so this all might be a moot point.

[sneakypower]

Being resoundingly mediocre or ass for half of the season and then pretty good or even awesome the other half is basically the patented Kyle Schwarber Specialty at this point.

 

2017:

.178 .300 .394 .694

.253 .335 .559 .894

 

2018:

.249 .375 .498 .873

.221 .323 .417 .740

 

Which order will he do it in THIS time?

perhaps more importantly, his K rate dropped from 28.3%, to 21.8% in the 2nd half; to me that signals development

 

for comparison, his 2017 strong 2nd half was coupled with 191 K pace, and a 169 K pace for his 2018 1st half so he never before really coupled good contact ability with slugging/production

[Sammy Sofa]

Being resoundingly mediocre or ass for half of the season and then pretty good or even awesome the other half is basically the patented Kyle Schwarber Specialty at this point.

 

2017:

.178 .300 .394 .694

.253 .335 .559 .894

 

2018:

.249 .375 .498 .873

.221 .323 .417 .740

 

Which order will he do it in THIS time?

perhaps more importantly, his K rate dropped from 28.3%, to 21.8% in the 2nd half; to me that signals development

 

for comparison, his 2017 strong 2nd half was coupled with 191 K pace, and a 169 K pace for his 2018 1st half so he never before really coupled good contact ability with slugging/production

 

Hey, it would be cool if it finally worked out. Each time he's done something we all thought he'd finally figured out....and then he didn't.

[sneakypower]

each time that he had a half season of 1000 OPS and 21% Ks? oh yeah i've just lost count of 'em

[Sammy Sofa]

Schwarber has been King Baseball Gonna Baseball for multiple seasons now despite multiple cases of "figuring it out," so I dunno why the idea of, "I'll believe he's finally figured it out for real THIS time when it actually happens," is so bonkers. The dude's track record of being super inconsistent is a lot longer than his last 198 PA. Odds are he ends up being the 2-3 fWAR guy SOMEHOW yet again, which is fine. If he's actually clicked, hey, even better, obviously. But it ain't dunking time yet.

[Derwood]

He's a guy with a high pull % who is a perfect target for overshifting

[Cubswin11]

He's a guy with a high pull % who is a perfect target for overshifting

His 2nd half pull% was 5% less than his career and his oppo% went up 5% as a trade off, throw in the K rate dropping and I think he definitely had some growth in the 2nd half.

[biittner77]

Schwarbs and Contreras make ton of sense, Bryant does not.

 

The only way it makes sense if they already discussed an extension with Bryant and they are really far apart. That seems pretty unlikely now but if they really wanted to shake things up, this would accomplish more than trading Contreras. They'd have to get an awful lot for Bryant and it's hard to envision what that deal would look like.

[Sammy Sofa]

Schwarbs and Contreras make ton of sense, Bryant does not.

 

The only way it makes sense if they already discussed an extension with Bryant and they are really far apart. That seems pretty unlikely now[...]

 

What makes you think that?

[sneakypower]

Schwarber has been King Baseball Gonna Baseball for multiple seasons now despite multiple cases of "figuring it out," so I dunno why the idea of, "I'll believe he's finally figured it out for real THIS time when it actually happens," is so bonkers. The dude's track record of being super inconsistent is a lot longer than his last 198 PA. Odds are he ends up being the 2-3 fWAR guy SOMEHOW yet again, which is fine. If he's actually clicked, hey, even better, obviously. But it ain't dunking time yet.

no it's more that now he's shown signs of actual real growth rather than a random hot stretch so we probably shouldn't be pushing him out when we imagine the trade market for him might not be overly enthusiastic (i might dispute this also)

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not saying they should push him out. I think they would get pennies on the dollar.

[squally1313]

The ideal usage of Schwarber is starting only against RHP, with a platoon partner who kills lefties. The issue with that is that Heyward needs a platoon partner even more, and somehow getting two pretty much wrecks any flexibility you have. If Bote can turn into someone who OPSs in the mid 800s against lefties, then KB can be one of those guys. But that's far from a guarantee.

[biittner77]

Schwarbs and Contreras make ton of sense, Bryant does not.

 

The only way it makes sense if they already discussed an extension with Bryant and they are really far apart. That seems pretty unlikely now[...]

 

What makes you think that?

 

It's still early to give up on extending Bryant. I don't believe they can get enough back to make it worth trading him. Then again, I haven't any idea what the return on Bryant would be but I'd guess he's not a guy that nets 3 really good players.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

The only way it makes sense if they already discussed an extension with Bryant and they are really far apart. That seems pretty unlikely now[...]

 

What makes you think that?

 

It's still early to give up on extending Bryant. I don't believe they can get enough back to make it worth trading him. Then again, I haven't any idea what the return on Bryant would be but I'd guess he's not a guy that nets 3 really good players.

 

I'm not opposed to them extending Bryant; I'm just curious as to why you're so sure the Cubs and Bryant/Boras are in a position where them not extended him seems "pretty unlikely."

 

Between how vocally they weren't happy about the Cubs keeping him in the minors, how lame the Cubs have been about spending money, and the rumored discontent by the Bryants over how the Cubs handled Russell, and that Rizzo is almost certainly gone after 2 years would have me thinking that the Cubs are going to have to work really hard to re-sign him. I'm looking at it like they'll be competing just like any other team to sign him as a FA.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm having trouble parsing the words of who's saying which side of this argument, but Boras has been extremely single-minded on getting his clients to free agency and then trying to wait out the market/put pressure on certain owners to get the best deal. He's had more than a couple clients he's done a disservice with that approach the last couple years, but he's been undeterred so far. When you combine that with Bryant's likely willingness to test the market(he'll have made north of 75 million in baseball already, we haven't seen any particular risk aversion to free agency from him, he's filed the MLBPA grievance over service time), it does seem real unlikely that Bryant extends before FA.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm having trouble parsing the words of who's saying which side of this argument, but Boras has been extremely single-minded on getting his clients to free agency and then trying to wait out the market/put pressure on certain owners to get the best deal. He's had more than a couple clients he's done a disservice with that approach the last couple years, but he's been undeterred so far. When you combine that with Bryant's likely willingness to test the market(he'll have made north of 75 million in baseball already, we haven't seen any particular risk aversion to free agency from him, he's filed the MLBPA grievance over service time), it does seem real unlikely that Bryant extends before FA.

 

That's basically what I'm saying. The Cubs, IMO, are going to have to look at Bryant in 2 years as if he were a "regular" FA coming from another team; they're going to have to get in line with everyone else.