8/7 Cubs (Darvish) @ Reds (Bauer) 6:10 CST NBCSCH

[Edith Cox]

The truest meaning of leadoff is the first at-bat of the game where Heyward has a .983 OPS. Rickey Henderson's leadoff OPS was .822.

 

Your move, Edith.

 

Being the leadoff hitter is way more than first AB of the game, since the rest of your PA are still in front of the good hitters. His OPS as the first hitter of the game is .983 because the lone 3 hits he has to start games are XBH while that BA is .200 the OBP is .250.

[Sammy Sofa]

His OBP is over .300 when he leads off

 

Maybe leading off an inning other than the first, but not hitting from the leadoff spot this year.

 

Hitting leadoff this season...

.159/.227/.377/.603

 

Those are his season splits hitting as the batter listed first in the lineup, not necessarily always actually "leading off" in the sense of being the first batter of the game or an inning.

 

As Janelle pointed out, Heyward's splits when he actually is the first batter of the game, a situation where he has had only 16 PA this season, is a very lopsided .200 .250 .733 .983, with a BAbip of .077. Those numbers correspond with how Heyward has been slumping or trending for a slump even before he was moved to the #1 spot.

 

If you're curious, his numbers this season when he's leading off an inning are .282 .325 .527 .852 with a .312 OPS in 117 PA. That's roughly in line with how he's hitting .271 .350 .460 .810 with a .304 BAbip over all this season in 437 PA.

 

So what does this tell us? That hitting Jason Heyward #1 is a serviceable idea, and that his current stretch is far more likely due to a slump as opposed to some kind of idea along of the lines of, "Jason Heyward can't handle leading off." The problem is that Maddon didn't plug Heyward in ahead of the team's better hitters sooner, not some nonsensical idea that hitting leadoff makes Heyward suck.

[Derwood]

His OBP is over .300 when he leads off

 

Maybe leading off an inning other than the first, but not hitting from the leadoff spot this year.

 

Hitting leadoff this season...

.159/.227/.377/.603

 

A meaningless stat

[Sammy Sofa]

The truest meaning of leadoff is the first at-bat of the game where Heyward has a .983 OPS. Rickey Henderson's leadoff OPS was .822.

 

Your move, Edith.

 

Being the leadoff hitter is way more than first AB of the game, since the rest of your PA are still in front of the good hitters. His OPS as the first hitter of the game is .983 because the lone 3 hits he has to start games are XBH while that BA is .200 the OBP is .250.

 

Serious question:

 

Do you think that he's hit .159 .227 .377 .603 in 75 PA hitting #1, and that he's hit .343 .453 .557 1.011 in 86 PA hitting #5, means anything?

 

Like, do you genuinely think that moving him back to the #5 spot would likely result in him hitting well again in short order?

 

I'm giving you an out here: if your argument is, "Heyward is slumping and he shouldn't be getting the most PA of anyone on the team right now," that's valid. If your argument is something along the lines, "Heyward can't handle the pressure of leading off," or, "hitting #1 makes Heyward bad," that's a laughably terribly argument.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It's so obvious that Bryant should be our leadoff hitter. Been obvious for 3 seasons.

[Edith Cox]

61 players have at least 75 PA as a hitting 1st and Heyward's OBP from the spot is 60th of 61 with the one behind him being Josh Harrison who got released yesterday. Schwarber had just a .304 OBP leading off which was 45th. If you just want SLG out of the spot then they need to back to Schwarber who hit 17 HR in the spot which lead to his wRC+ being 28th vs Heyward's 60 of 61 players.

[Sammy Sofa]

So that's essentially you answering that, yes, you think hitting #1 inexplicably significantly impacts a player's performance vs. them hitting elsewhere in the lineup.

[Edith Cox]

Do you think that he's hit .159 .227 .377 .603 in 75 PA hitting #1, and that he's hit .343 .453 .557 1.011 in 86 PA hitting #5, means anything?

 

Yes it means something. Heyward has always said he dislikes hitting first because if makes him feel like he has to change.

 

Don't expect Jason Heyward to hit in the leadoff spot for the Cardinals. The former Braves outfielder, who was traded to St. Louis in November, said Sunday that he felt limited as a leadoff hitter in Atlanta.

 

"You feel like there's a governor on you and you're not letting it ride," Heyward said, via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

 

Just like being a closer if anyone could do it everyone would have good closers and leadoff hitters.

[Edith Cox]

Since Heyward has said that he's gone 13-for-101 hitting 1st

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Just like being a closer if anyone could do it everyone would have good closers and leadoff hitters.

So you are saying some baseball players are better than others? Amazing insight. What if I told you sometimes, players play better for some stretches of their career than in others? And what if I also told you that distribution of success is largely random...and IF there actually were some kind of correlation to KB not hitting in Stl or Heyward being bad at leadoff, that you would need orders of magnitude more stats to prove or even hint at that? What then? Would you just ignore me and give me another small sample size or cherry picked result?

[Edith Cox]

Its not even about being better. There are good BP arms who can't handle the 9th trying to lock down a save, Good hitters can't hit in RBI spots or leading off. Baseball is a mental game as much as its physical and some roles or situations make players uncomfortable leading to poor performance.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Its not even about being better. There are good BP arms who can't handle the 9th trying to lock down a save, Good hitters can't hit in RBI spots or leading off. Baseball is a mental game as much as its physical and some roles or situations make players uncomfortable leading to poor performance.

Some of that might be close to true, but the stats you use to support it are just nearly meaningless. Please nod yes if you understand.

[Edith Cox]

The player has said he dislikes leading off and has had terrible numbers there since he said that, yet idiots think it doesn't mean anything.

:lol:

 

Maddon must just be really unlucky to pick every time he slumps to put him in the leadoff spot

 

.296/.376/.478/.854 over 362 PA

.159/.227/.377/.603 over 75 PA

[Edith Cox]

Does Schwarber have comically bad RISP due to luck too?

[Sammy Sofa]

Pointing out that Maddon often makes bad/baffling decisions isn't helping your case. Heyward is, even at the best of times, a very streaky player in terms of peaks and valleys. We have seen Maddon, time and again, stick with players, position and pitching, giving them playing time or using them in spots when they are clearly struggling....because that's what baseball players do. They go through stretches where they underperform, or don't play well, or are hurt, or just flat out stink.

 

Again, Heyward was already struggling again BEFORE he was moved up to #1. You keep arguing like he was doing fine and then suddenly on a dime started hitting poorly when he was moved up there. That's simply and obviously not true. You repeatedly cherrypick tiny sample sizes for these absurd, intangible-based narratives you insist must exist.

 

Again, there is a very good and obvious argument against Heyward hitting #1, and that's that he has obviously been struggling for several weeks, and his OBP in that time shows he shouldn't be getting the most PA and be the guy you need to get on base in front of better hitters. Why do you need this nonsense storyline of, "leading off gets in Heyward's head, maaaaaaaaaannnnnn?"

 

Look at this: Heyward is slashing .295 .349 .462 .810 in 86 PA when he bats 7th this season. As I pointed out before, he is slashing .343 .453 .557 1.011 in 86 PA when he is hitting 5th.

 

Exact same sample size.

 

Do you honestly believe that Jason Heyward has an OPS 200 points better hitting 5th because he feels more comfortable there, or prefers it, or whatever to hitting 7th?

[Edith Cox]

How many of those times hitting 7th came vs LHP?

[Sammy Sofa]

Does Schwarber have comically bad RISP due to luck too?

 

Schwarber has a .222 .351 .486 .837 line with RISP this season, which is clearly not "comically bad," with a BAbip of only .216 for a guy who usually is around .260, so, yeah, he's been reasonably unlucky in those spots.

[Edith Cox]

Does Schwarber have comically bad RISP due to luck too?

 

Schwarber has a .222 .351 .486 .837 line with RISP this season, which is clearly not "comically bad," with a BAbip of only .216 for a guy who usually is around .260, so, yeah, he's been reasonably unlucky in those spots.

 

 

He's under 200 lifetime

[Sammy Sofa]

How many of those times hitting 7th came vs LHP?

 

Wait, wait, wait....so your response is to blatantly shift the goal posts to now argue that he must have just bad luck of the draw seen more LH pitchers when hitting 7th vs. 5th?

 

Come on, man.

[Sammy Sofa]

Does Schwarber have comically bad RISP due to luck too?

 

Schwarber has a .222 .351 .486 .837 line with RISP this season, which is clearly not "comically bad," with a BAbip of only .216 for a guy who usually is around .260, so, yeah, he's been reasonably unlucky in those spots.

 

 

He's under 200 lifetime

 

OK? It's 2019, and that's what he's doing THIS season.

 

Also: his career RISP numbers carry a .200 BAbip to his career BAbip of .260, so, yes, again, reasonably unlucky.

 

Let me pose a scenario to you:

 

It's late in a tie game, and the Cubs have a guy on 3B with Schwarber up to bat. He's facing a struggling RH pitcher. He has a career .115 .350 .115 .465 line with only a guy on 3B in a mere 40 PA. Do you PH for him?

Edited August 10, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[Edith Cox]

 

Schwarber has a .222 .351 .486 .837 line with RISP this season, which is clearly not "comically bad," with a BAbip of only .216 for a guy who usually is around .260, so, yeah, he's been reasonably unlucky in those spots.

 

 

He's under 200 lifetime

 

OK? It's 2019, and that's what he's doing THIS season.

 

 

So now you want to go with the smaller sample size?

[Edith Cox]

How many of those times hitting 7th came vs LHP?

 

Wait, wait, wait....so your response is to blatantly shift the goal posts to now argue that he must have just bad luck of the draw seen more LH pitchers when hitting 7th vs. 5th?

 

Come on, man.

 

When Heyward was hitting leadoff the first time Joe was moving him from 1st to 7th on some days so I would bet those bad 7 hole numbers were due to facing LHP and getting dropped down.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

 

He's under 200 lifetime

 

OK? It's 2019, and that's what he's doing THIS season.

 

 

So now you want to go with the smaller sample size?

 

Yes, because it's not some bizarre micro sample piggybacked on the back of some weirdo meatball narrative. This is simply, "Kyle Schwarber has not been bad with RISP this season."

[PackLandVA]

I love these "my dick is bigger than yours" arguments.

[Edith Cox]

Let me pose a scenario to you:

 

It's late in a tie game, and the Cubs have a guy on 3B with Schwarber up to bat. He's facing a struggling RH pitcher. He has a career .115 .350 .115 .465 line with only a guy on 3B in a mere 40 PA. Do you PH for him?

 

First off he wouldn't be facing a struggling RH pitcher in that spot.