9/19 Cubs (Hamels) @ Diamondbacks (Ray) 8:40 NBCSC

[javy knows my name]

 

This was the only way this streak was going to end. I used up too many baseball movie gifs and this was the only one left.

 

So poetic lmao

[Sammy Sofa]

horsefeathers; I mentioned earlier that Hamels' 4.90/4.48 FIP/xFIP in his 3 September starts before tonight was seeming a tad ominous. Bummer.

 

After last night, he's now sitting at 5.33/4.49 in 4 September starts.

 

Yeah, let's not bring this guy back next year.

[Sammy Sofa]

His HR/9 is also back up at 1.85, which is right in line with what he was doing with Texas in the first half.

[Brian707]

So playoff rotation:

1. Lester

2. Kyle

3. Q

4. Hamels

 

?

[UMFan83]

So wait, the Cubs only got 1 hit and it was Addison Russell who got it?

[Sammy Sofa]

So playoff rotation:

1. Lester

2. Kyle

3. Q

4. Hamels

 

?

 

Being so LH heavy especially sucks here since Hendricks really gives you your best shot to take the first game. Do they end up just rolling with having 3 lefties in a row?

[17 Seconds]

Hendricks

Hamels

Q

Lester

[Sammy Sofa]

Lester has been legit baller in his 3 September starts: 1.33/2.48 FIPs with a 1.18 WHIP, with walks down and k's WAY up (plus no dongs). Small sample size, sure, but he and Hamels have basically flip-flopped performance-wise. If he keeps it up through the end of the regular season, I think I have Lester go second after Hendricks.

 

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Hamels

[17 Seconds]

Lester has been legit baller in his 3 September starts: 1.33/2.48 FIPs with a 1.18 WHIP, with walks down and k's WAY up (plus no dongs). Small sample size, sure, but he and Hamels have basically flip-flopped performance-wise. If he keeps it up through the end of the regular season, I think I have Lester go second after Hendricks.

 

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Hamels

 

you're putting too much emphasis on 4 september starts to put hamels all the way down to 4th imo

[Cubswin11]

Lester has been legit baller in his 3 September starts: 1.33/2.48 FIPs with a 1.18 WHIP, with walks down and k's WAY up (plus no dongs). Small sample size, sure, but he and Hamels have basically flip-flopped performance-wise. If he keeps it up through the end of the regular season, I think I have Lester go second after Hendricks.

 

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Hamels

 

you're putting too much emphasis on 4 september starts to put hamels all the way down to 4th imo

For the DS it doesn’t really matter outside of the game 1 starter since that’s the only guy who potentially goes 2 games. And if it’s the VBs I probably want Q going 1 and 5. Cardinals I’d want Kyle in that spot. I like Lester going game 2 as well since he’s theoretically be available out of the pen in a game 5.

Edited September 20, 2018 by Cubswin11

[jersey cubs fan]

Lester has been legit baller in his 3 September starts: 1.33/2.48 FIPs with a 1.18 WHIP, with walks down and k's WAY up (plus no dongs). Small sample size, sure, but he and Hamels have basically flip-flopped performance-wise. If he keeps it up through the end of the regular season, I think I have Lester go second after Hendricks.

 

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Hamels

 

you're putting too much emphasis on 4 september starts to put hamels all the way down to 4th imo

4 September, and ~20 non-September, no?

[17 Seconds]

Lester has been legit baller in his 3 September starts: 1.33/2.48 FIPs with a 1.18 WHIP, with walks down and k's WAY up (plus no dongs). Small sample size, sure, but he and Hamels have basically flip-flopped performance-wise. If he keeps it up through the end of the regular season, I think I have Lester go second after Hendricks.

 

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Hamels

 

you're putting too much emphasis on 4 september starts to put hamels all the way down to 4th imo

4 September, and ~20 non-September, no?

 

hamels' total 2018 xfip is 2nd best on the cubs

[Sammy Sofa]

Lester has been legit baller in his 3 September starts: 1.33/2.48 FIPs with a 1.18 WHIP, with walks down and k's WAY up (plus no dongs). Small sample size, sure, but he and Hamels have basically flip-flopped performance-wise. If he keeps it up through the end of the regular season, I think I have Lester go second after Hendricks.

 

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Hamels

 

you're putting too much emphasis on 4 september starts to put hamels all the way down to 4th imo

 

Well, it's those 4 starts, plus how he performed before coming to the Cubs AND how he performed in 2017, too. His last 4 starts are right line line with Bad Hamels, so I'm more inclined that the month+ resurgence is the outlier.

 

Bad Lester wasn't just a blip, but he also doesn't have as much of a sustained track record of badness. His 2017 definitely wasn't ideal, but he was much better than Hamels.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

you're putting too much emphasis on 4 september starts to put hamels all the way down to 4th imo

4 September, and ~20 non-September, no?

 

hamels' total 2018 xfip is 2nd best on the cubs

 

That just speaks more to how bad the rotation was for the first half+ as opposed to how good an option Hamels is in the playoffs. In the end they're gonna have to gauge whether it's more likely that everyone else's recent success is a fluke and they're likely to regress to first half levels, or that Hamels HAS already regressed to how he was before he was traded.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

xFIP is also thinking 'surely Hamels won't give up THIS many home runs' when that's probably closer to his talent level than fluke chance

[Cubswin11]

4 September, and ~20 non-September, no?

 

hamels' total 2018 xfip is 2nd best on the cubs

 

That just speaks more to how bad the rotation was for the first half+ as opposed to how good an option Hamels is in the playoffs. In the end they're gonna have to gauge whether it's more likely that everyone else's recent success is a fluke and they're likely to regress to first half levels, or that Hamels HAS already regressed to how he was before he was traded.

Yeah I just think outside of Hendricks the other 3 are coin flippy in however you want to order them up. Jon probably gets a leg up for being Jon and his postseason history (looking at it from Joe’s drunk eyes), Q and Hamels just line up whoever matches up better with the opponent. It also looks like fall weather will be setting in at night starting next week, so hopefully that helps keep some Dongs in the park (especially for Hamels).

[Cubswin11]

The other thing about Hamels is, well yes he was likely due for regression regardless and last night he was just bad, but he started pitching completely different with us. I believe he started throwing his FB a ton more, specifically inside to RHB so maybe the league is catching up to him a bit on the new scouting reports and he needs to adjust his pitch mix a bit and/or execute better.