2018 Draft Thread

[Cubswin11]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/999055172117647360[/tweet]

 

I'm reading a bunch of tweets about college pitchers throwing a ton of pitches on short rest. Not cool...

#DraftBats

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Hrubes20]

 

That write-up was fairly terrible. Basically it was "Cubs have drafted tons of pitchers, so they're going to take a pitcher again in the 1st". This of course flies in the face of what the entire FO has already said, in that bats are definitely in play.

 

Edit: But yes please on Wilcox, depending on what bats are there.

[Hrubes20]

Theo is sitting in the stands at the SEC tournament watching Auburn and Ole Miss. Rolison is currently pitching for the Rebels.

 

This doesn't please me, especially since Rolison was pretty sharp yesterday. Reminds me of when Zastryzny had a really good tourney in front of the Cubs brass and they fell in love with him.

[davell]

I'm not too worried about it honestly. Its our 2nd rounder we seemingly go with the "his stuff ticked up late" guy..... Stinnett, Rob Z, Abbott, might even be forgetting one.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This is a guy I’d love if he lasted till the Cubs 2nd rounder (though an outing like today’s probably cements him in the top 50). I like the idea of drafting guys with a plus pitch if you’re drafting a non high ceiling pitcher outside the first and Roberts definitely has a plus slider.

 

 

 

 

[Hrubes20]

This doesn't please me, especially since Rolison was pretty sharp yesterday. Reminds me of when Zastryzny had a really good tourney in front of the Cubs brass and they fell in love with him.

 

Rolison’s a significantly better prospsect than Zasrtrzny. Throws harder, better breaking ball, better pedigree, younger, more swing and miss, better performer...Hot take is that Rolison has some Ted Lilly to his game with the fastball/breaking ball combo and clean arm.

 

I’m not a Cole Wilcox fan. He reminds me of that guy the Royals drafted a couple years ago, a little stiff, thin, and a bit of a slinger for my tastes.

 

Well of course he is. I wasn't comparing Rolison and Zastryzny as prospects, but comparing the situations. (i.e. a guy who wasn't great most of the year, but who happened to have a terrific start in his conference tourney in front of the FO; leading them to select him)

[Hrubes20]

I'm not too worried about it honestly. Its our 2nd rounder we seemingly go with the "his stuff ticked up late" guy..... Stinnett, Rob Z, Abbott, might even be forgetting one.

 

Well, they took bats for the first however many years so we can't really know. But Brendon Little is in the same boat as Stinnett and Abbott, in that they had velocity increase their draft year, and he obviously was their 1st pick in 2017. I hope it's nothing and I'm just being paranoid.

[Hrubes20]

 

Rolison’s a significantly better prospsect than Zasrtrzny. Throws harder, better breaking ball, better pedigree, younger, more swing and miss, better performer...Hot take is that Rolison has some Ted Lilly to his game with the fastball/breaking ball combo and clean arm.

 

I’m not a Cole Wilcox fan. He reminds me of that guy the Royals drafted a couple years ago, a little stiff, thin, and a bit of a slinger for my tastes.

 

Well of course he is. I wasn't comparing Rolison and Zastryzny as prospects, but comparing the situations. (i.e. a guy who wasn't great most of the year, but who happened to have a terrific start in his conference tourney in front of the FO; leading them to select him)

 

I don't buy it. Rolison was a top 10 or 20 guy for most pubs coming into the year whereas Zastrzny was a relative unknown that happened to be LH, have some arm strength, be healthy, and not totally suck in college while being cheap (Cubs signed him for like 200K+ below slot) for the Bryant draft. That distinction is significant, as is the gap in their college performance. Zastrzny gave up more H than IP in college with a low K rate, mostly in the Big 12, whereas Rolison was strong in the CCL while closing his college career with a season that will probably push 100 IP/120 Ks with tourney play in the SEC. Basically, you're really selling Rolison short by even lumping them together on general terms.

 

I disagree. Rolison as a 1st rounder is as big a stretch to me as Zastryzny was as a 2nd rounder. He was garbage against SEC opponents this year and feasted on lesser opponents. Other than his curve, his stuff isn’t anything to write home about. His body is probably maxed out, so he’s not going to improve the 89-92 much. Rolison’s stock has been steadily falling all year and honestly, his health is the only reason he’s still in 1st round discussions. He wouldn’t be in mine.

 

But I still think you are trying to compare them as prospects. Rolison is clearly a superior prospect to what Zastryzny was. That was never in question.

[CP_414]

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/999630321955098624[/tweet]

 

Casey Mize is #1, my boy (Carter Stewart) is #2 on his big board, Bohm is ranked #5, India is ranked #9, Bart is ranked #10, and Rocker is all the way down at #29.

 

The big board goes to 100 so if you guys want to know where Law has someone ranked let me know. It's very different from other lists I've seen, but it's a solid ranking of the draft prospects.

[Cubswin11]

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

I like him a lot from the little I know/see. Maybe not first round like him but our 2nd pick if he’s there I’d love it.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Regular Show]

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

 

He is indeed considered a 1B/DH only type player. He played RF his freshman year and seemed okay to me on video, but reports say he was pretty bad out there. Some scouting reports don't like his swing and worry about how he'll perform with a wooden bat.

 

I don't have a strong opinion on him, but his performance and production are undeniable. He might go at the end of the 1st round or right after the 1st round.

[CP_414]

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

 

He is indeed considered a 1B/DH only type player. He played RF his freshman year and seemed okay to me on video, but reports say he was pretty bad out there. Some scouting reports don't like his swing and worry about how he'll perform with a wooden bat.

 

I don't have a strong opinion on him, but his performance and production are undeniable. He might go at the end of the 1st round or right after the 1st round.

 

Thanks for the responses.

 

I won't pretend to scout the stat line, but the stat line is something.

[Regular Show]

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

 

He is indeed considered a 1B/DH only type player. He played RF his freshman year and seemed okay to me on video, but reports say he was pretty bad out there. Some scouting reports don't like his swing and worry about how he'll perform with a wooden bat.

 

I don't have a strong opinion on him, but his performance and production are undeniable. He might go at the end of the 1st round or right after the 1st round.

 

Thanks for the responses.

 

I won't pretend to scout the stat line, but the stat line is something.

 

Oh for sure. His stats are very impressive and I like his swing actually. It's just you're not getting any value on defense from him so the bat has to be pretty special.

[Cubswin11]

 

He is indeed considered a 1B/DH only type player. He played RF his freshman year and seemed okay to me on video, but reports say he was pretty bad out there. Some scouting reports don't like his swing and worry about how he'll perform with a wooden bat.

 

I don't have a strong opinion on him, but his performance and production are undeniable. He might go at the end of the 1st round or right after the 1st round.

 

Thanks for the responses.

 

I won't pretend to scout the stat line, but the stat line is something.

 

Oh for sure. His stats are very impressive and I like his swing actually. It's just you're not getting any value on defense from him so the bat has to be pretty special.

It might be too soon but I brought up if there were any bat only college guys this year for a future Rizzo replacement (maybe that’s too soon) earlier in the thread and Beer was brought up and I like what I saw when I did a little digging.

[Regular Show]

 

Thanks for the responses.

 

I won't pretend to scout the stat line, but the stat line is something.

 

Oh for sure. His stats are very impressive and I like his swing actually. It's just you're not getting any value on defense from him so the bat has to be pretty special.

It might be too soon but I brought up if there were any bat only college guys this year for a future Rizzo replacement (maybe that’s too soon) earlier in the thread and Beer was brought up and I like what I saw when I did a little digging.

 

I know bro -- I was the one that mentioned Seth Beer to you lol. Yeah, he's definitely intriguing but we don't need to worry about a Rizzo replacement already.

 

Rizzo will bounce back and I think he'll be good for many years to come.

[Cubswin11]

 

Oh for sure. His stats are very impressive and I like his swing actually. It's just you're not getting any value on defense from him so the bat has to be pretty special.

It might be too soon but I brought up if there were any bat only college guys this year for a future Rizzo replacement (maybe that’s too soon) earlier in the thread and Beer was brought up and I like what I saw when I did a little digging.

 

I know bro -- I was the one that mentioned Seth Beer to you lol. Yeah, he's definitely intriguing but we don't need to worry about a Rizzo replacement already.

 

Rizzo will bounce back and I think he'll be good for many years to come.

If the bat is “that” good, which Beer seems to be idk if it’s overly soon especially since we won’t have picks like this for quite some time. But yeah in general it is a little soon.

 

And I’m not worried about a Rizzo replacement while he’s under contract or think he’ll suck at all during the duration of it. But he’s only here for 3 years after this and I’m not wild about paying him big money once he hits free agency at age 32 or whatever he’ll be. It would be nice to find cheap production at 1B when the time comes to replace him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

 

Bad defense (even questionable at 1B) and has struggled in wood bat leagues. But he has prodigious power and takes walks.

[Hrubes20]

Moving off of Rolison, Callis had a new mock yesterday. Gave the Cubs Trevor Larnach, and tied them to Nico Hoerner and Nick Schnell (who somebody said has a bunch of helium right now).

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-college-players-get-picked-early/c-278228058

 

I would be 100% behind the pick of Larnach. Not sure he makes it to 24 though. Hoerner would be a reach for sure. Seems like a target for the 2nd round. Worth noting that both Larnach and Hoerner performed well on the Cape.

[davell]

Hoerner seems like a very safe pick. But, also a guy you save on and spend big on a HS kid in the 2nd. I can see weighing HS kid in the 1st, with college bat in the 2nd, versus the opposite..... And I can see where your take the college bat first, due to a larger dropoff. There's plenty of HS arms, not as many bats that seem likely to be there in the 2nd......

 

Hoerner or someone else for 2 mill, allows you to spend 1.7 on your 2nd, without even going into the overage or the 7-10 Round seniors......

[Bertz]

Yeah if we're going bat-only guys, give me Larnach over Beer.

 

Though in that scenario, I'd be mighty tempted to take Groshans, Naylor, or Thomas. Those are three high quality well rounded high school position players. Though if we take a college bat I trust this FO implicitly that he's a good choice.

[Hrubes20]

Hoerner seems like a very safe pick. But, also a guy you save on and spend big on a HS kid in the 2nd. I can see weighing HS kid in the 1st, with college bat in the 2nd, versus the opposite..... And I can see where your take the college bat first, due to a larger dropoff. There's plenty of HS arms, not as many bats that seem likely to be there in the 2nd......

 

Hoerner or someone else for 2 mill, allows you to spend 1.7 on your 2nd, without even going into the overage or the 7-10 Round seniors......

 

Very true. There will always be more prep arms than anything else. It's actually a somewhat deep pool this year for college bats though.

Hoerner/Eierman/Conine/Hannah/McCarthy/Jenista/Pompey/Isbel all look like guys that are actual prospects with a solid chance of being there in the 2nd.

 

 

 

Yeah if we're going bat-only guys, give me Larnach over Beer.

 

Though in that scenario, I'd be mighty tempted to take Groshans, Naylor, or Thomas. Those are three high quality well rounded high school position players. Though if we take a college bat I trust this FO implicitly that he's a good choice.

 

Without a doubt. Beer is a DH. Larnach is actually pretty athletic for his build, and looks like a solid RFer.

[davell]

I like Hannah a bunch. If we were going to under slot a college guy in the 1st, I think he's my top choice.

[Regular Show]

Good tweets by Keith Law:

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1000040754973216768[/tweet]

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1000041059341230080[/tweet]

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1000041394319306752[/tweet]