2018 Draft Thread

[UK]

I love him and he's good but he's not 1/1 good.

[Regular Show]

I love him and he's good but he's not 1/1 good.

 

I agree that Kelenic is good, but not #1 overall good/great.

 

So I know you'll eventually tell us when we get closer to the draft, but do you have scouting reports available for the top tier of HS arms in this draft? What have you heard and how would you order them right now?

 

That top tier for me is Hankins, Rocker, Liberatore, Stewart, Denaburg and Winn. I have no idea how to rank them right now...

 

I would be happy if any of them fell to the Cubs.

[Hrubes20]

A guy that hasn't been discussed much, but probably should be, is Jonathan India from UF. I will be following him more closely now that SEC play is in full swing. 24 games into the season and he's rocking a .429/.535/.909 slash line with 9 HRs and 17 BBs to 15 Ks. He hasn't been playing SS this year, but his D at 3B has received some really solid reviews. I think I read somewhere that many thought he was a 2B at the next level.

 

4 weeks of SEC play and India is at .429/.547/886 with 12 HRs and a 25 BBs to 22 Ks, and a perfect 4 for 4 in SBs for good measure. He's not going to make it to 62 as I once hoped.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A guy that hasn't been discussed much, but probably should be, is Jonathan India from UF. I will be following him more closely now that SEC play is in full swing. 24 games into the season and he's rocking a .429/.535/.909 slash line with 9 HRs and 17 BBs to 15 Ks. He hasn't been playing SS this year, but his D at 3B has received some really solid reviews. I think I read somewhere that many thought he was a 2B at the next level.

 

4 weeks of SEC play and India is at .429/.547/886 with 12 HRs and a 25 BBs to 22 Ks, and a perfect 4 for 4 in SBs for good measure. He's not going to make it to 62 as I once hoped.

 

Yeah, he’s played his way up to 24 at this point.

[Hrubes20]

A guy that hasn't been discussed much, but probably should be, is Jonathan India from UF. I will be following him more closely now that SEC play is in full swing. 24 games into the season and he's rocking a .429/.535/.909 slash line with 9 HRs and 17 BBs to 15 Ks. He hasn't been playing SS this year, but his D at 3B has received some really solid reviews. I think I read somewhere that many thought he was a 2B at the next level.

 

4 weeks of SEC play and India is at .429/.547/886 with 12 HRs and a 25 BBs to 22 Ks, and a perfect 4 for 4 in SBs for good measure. He's not going to make it to 62 as I once hoped.

 

Yeah, he’s played his way up to 24 at this point.

 

Likely. He gives off a big Jed Lowrie vibe to me. Certainly no superstar, but could be a really big piece of a contending team with his positional versatility and ability to be "solid" if pressed into starting duties.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/983465101696135168?s=21

[Hrubes20]

 

I wonder wtheck has been going on with Kumar Rocker. No game tweets or random updates at all this month...Hopefully it helps get him to a Cubs pick.

 

I couldn't find any tweets, but according to this, he at least pitched on Monday.

 

http://www.onlineathens.com/sports/20180410/high-school-sports-roundup

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-draft-prospects/

 

More good stuff from Kiley on some top prep prospects:

 

Carter Stewart (he says he's the top prep arm now)

Mason Denaburg

Matthew Liberatore

Cole Winn

Connor Scott

Nolan Gorman

Brice Turang

Alek Thomas

Jordyn Adams

Joe Gray Jr

Triston Casas

Gunnar Hoglund

Cole Henry

Cory Acton

[Hrubes20]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-draft-prospects/

 

More good stuff from Kiley on some top prep prospects:

 

Carter Stewart (he says he's the top prep arm now)

Mason Denaburg

Matthew Liberatore

Cole Winn

Connor Scott

Nolan Gorman

Brice Turang

Alek Thomas

Jordyn Adams

Joe Gray Jr

Triston Casas

Gunnar Hoglund

Cole Henry

Cory Acton

 

Did Kiley just comp Connor Scott to Kyle Tucker, but with 70 speed thrown in? That's #1 overall material. I can't imagine he has the power potential that Tucker had/has.

[OleMissCub]

54:1 k/bb

 

Is that good?

 

[Hrubes20]

Hoglund might be growing on me. He reminds me of a watered down Greinke as a HSer. Simple and athletic delivery, fastball command, command and control with stuff (not as good as HS Greinke in either area but w/e), smart, two way prospect, Florida kid...

 

I think McDaniel's Florida focus is keeping guys like Torres Jr. and Hjelle more off radar than they should be. Torres might stack with any non Rocker or Hankins RH for me, he's basially Winn but his body got better rather than worse over the winter. I also don't agree on Stewart's arm action being clean, my heartgutinstinct says it's long and shouldery. He's clearly trying to imitate Verlander, great idea, but he lacks the twitch Verlander had in college (no clue what Verlander was like in HS). I'm also leery of HS curveballers, thanks Clint Everts and Chris Gruler, and even his velocity jump.

 

Hjelle is probably keeping himself off the radar. He's just a really boring prospect, other than that he looks like a giraffe out there on the mound. Low-90's fastball. No plus secondary, although the curve has flashed it at times. He doesn't even have any eye-popping performance numbers that stand out. Just boring all around.

 

I agree with you on being leery of prep arms that are curveball heavy. But then again, I'm leery of prep arms in general.

[Regular Show]

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He has 8 HRs so far this year. His stats are very impressive. I think he's still in that late first round range.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Is being wary of Stanford arms still a thing? Was it an over-hyped thing in the past?

[Bruno7481]

The Cubs have been in to see Indiana prep SS Timmy Borden on multiple occasions this Spring, along with a slew of other teams as well.

[Regular Show]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen updated their draft board: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

 

1. Casey Mize

2. Nick Madrigal

3. Alec Bohm

4. Travis Swaggerty

5. Carter Steward

6. Shane McClanahan

7. Matthew Liberatore

8. Jarred Kelenic

9. Joey Bart

10. Connor Scott

11. Nolan Gorman

12. Kumar Rocker

13. Trevor Larnach

14. Ryan Rolison

15. Brady Singer.

 

Others who have been mentioned here:

 

18. Cole Winn

19. Ryan Weathers

22. Mike Vasil

23. Grayson Rodriguez

24. Jonathan India

27. Mason Denaburg

31. Ethan Hankins

33. Jordyn Adams

35. Tristan Beck

36. Cole Wilcox

41. Kris Bubic

43. Griffin Conine

48. Triston Casas

52. Gunnar Hoglund

 

Also of note:

 

We’ve noted the prep players whom we’ve heard will be a challenge to sign (Adams, Banfield, Denaburg, Hoglund, Kloffenstein, Rocker, Thomas, and Wilcox), although typically, with players ranked this high, all but one or two of will end up reaching an agreement with a club.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And just an FYI for Tom, Kiley McDaniel is seeing Kumar Rocker tonight so you'll get your share of tweets.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

12:37

Sharm: What does it take for Ethan Hankins to get into top 5 consideration?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: That ship has sailed. I was commenting to a friend yesterday that I couldn’t imagine years ago that I’d see a 6’5 high school kid that’s still 17 hit 96 mph and not be impressed but that’s kinda where it is right now, given the expectations and what he’s done in the past. Someone may give him 15-20th overall money, I mean there were two GMs at his last game and another one at the game before that so teams are interested, but there’s so many prep arms in this class with less concerns and comparable strengths. Doesn’t mean he can’t be a good big leaguer or I’m not rooting for it. Seems like readers have a hard time processing guys rising/falling when they’ve heard a guy will be X for months over the winter/early spring.

 

Here’s your opening, Tom:

 

Pete: Can Vandy fans get their hopes up about Hankins coming to Nashville? Do any of the top guys have a chance to not sign?

1:16

 

Kiley McDaniel: He’s signing. Get your hopes up about Rocker and Banfield, there’s a chance on those.

[Cubswin11]

What is the reference to “expectations and what he’s done in past” and he concerns about with Hankins? 6’5” 17 year old hitting mid 90s doesn’t seem like there’s too much concern other than just the general concerns about prep arms.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

What is the reference to “expectations and what he’s done in past” and he concerns about with Hankins? 6’5” 17 year old hitting mid 90s doesn’t seem like there’s too much concern other than just the general concerns about prep arms.

 

He had shoulder "fatigue" recently that knocked him out of a few starts and since he's returned, he hasn't been as good as he was before the injury, with his velocity fluctuating. Basically, he isn't meeting the expectations of his pre-injury past and there are too many other good, currently healthy prep arms for him to compete with.

[Cubswin11]

What is the reference to “expectations and what he’s done in past” and he concerns about with Hankins? 6’5” 17 year old hitting mid 90s doesn’t seem like there’s too much concern other than just the general concerns about prep arms.

 

He had shoulder "fatigue" recently that knocked him out of a few starts and since he's returned, he hasn't been as good as he was before the injury, with his velocity fluctuating. Basically, he isn't meeting the expectations of his pre-injury past and there are too many other good, currently healthy prep arms for him to compete with.

Got it, thanks. I kinda like hearing there's a lot of prep arms thought of so highly and hopefully they mostly stay healthy for the next 60 days or so up to the draft so they go early and more college guys/hitters are there for us to take.

 

Also are there any Cease or Giolito type HS guys who we know need TJS that would've been higher if not for it that could fall to us? Seems like the FO, but also the league in general, doesn't seem to overly think it is that big of a deal anymore other than the missed time. We've added Chatwood, Darvish, Morrow and Smyly all in the last year and obviously drafted Cease. I'd think it would be something we'd look at if the opportunity is there.

[Regular Show]

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen updated their draft board: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

 

1. Casey Mize

2. Nick Madrigal

3. Alec Bohm

4. Travis Swaggerty

5. Carter Steward

6. Shane McClanahan

7. Matthew Liberatore

8. Jarred Kelenic

9. Joey Bart

10. Connor Scott

11. Nolan Gorman

12. Kumar Rocker

13. Trevor Larnach

14. Ryan Rolison

15. Brady Singer.

 

Others who have been mentioned here:

 

18. Cole Winn

19. Ryan Weathers

22. Mike Vasil

23. Grayson Rodriguez

24. Jonathan India

27. Mason Denaburg

31. Ethan Hankins

33. Jordyn Adams

35. Tristan Beck

36. Cole Wilcox

41. Kris Bubic

43. Griffin Conine

48. Triston Casas

52. Gunnar Hoglund

 

Also of note:

 

We’ve noted the prep players whom we’ve heard will be a challenge to sign (Adams, Banfield, Denaburg, Hoglund, Kloffenstein, Rocker, Thomas, and Wilcox), although typically, with players ranked this high, all but one or two of will end up reaching an agreement with a club.

 

My favorite HS arm is Carter Stewart because of that sick curveball and now his fastball has improved. Kinda sucks we have no shot at him. I am pretty excited about the Cubs possibly having a shot at Ethan Hankins now. I'm still a big fan and think in other draft years he'd still be at the top of the draft board. This draft class is just so stacked in talented healthy arms that he's falling, which is ideal for us.

 

Right now, I'd be pretty happy if Cole Winn or Ethan Hankins were still available at #24. I also like Mason Denaburg.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

What is the reference to “expectations and what he’s done in past” and he concerns about with Hankins? 6’5” 17 year old hitting mid 90s doesn’t seem like there’s too much concern other than just the general concerns about prep arms.

 

He had shoulder "fatigue" recently that knocked him out of a few starts and since he's returned, he hasn't been as good as he was before the injury, with his velocity fluctuating. Basically, he isn't meeting the expectations of his pre-injury past and there are too many other good, currently healthy prep arms for him to compete with.

Got it, thanks. I kinda like hearing there's a lot of prep arms thought of so highly and hopefully they mostly stay healthy for the next 60 days or so up to the draft so they go early and more college guys/hitters are there for us to take.

 

Also are there any Cease or Giolito type HS guys who we know need TJS that would've been higher if not for it that could fall to us? Seems like the FO, but also the league in general, doesn't seem to overly think it is that big of a deal anymore other than the missed time. We've added Chatwood, Darvish, Morrow and Smyly all in the last year and obviously drafted Cease. I'd think it would be something we'd look at if the opportunity is there.

 

No TJS HS guys yet but Mason Denaburg has biceps tendinitis and has been shut down.

[Bertz]

Keith Law released his initial Top 50 this morning. He says to expect a run on college guys to open the draft, since after Casey Mize no one has really differentiated themselves on talent.

 

Of the guys he has ranked in our vicinity, I think I like Noah Naylor. Law comped him to Brett Lawrie as a frontline athlete who can hit but doesn't really have a position yet.