Starting Pitching candidates

[davell]

This is our need, as of now. We may eventually add to the need of starting pitching, but this one probably isn't going away, even if Butler or Montgomery upgrade the Anderson spot. The rotation is just shaky this season. It may get better(probably will), but it seems like an inevitability, that we'll be adding this deadline.....

 

The true question is whether we add one, or two, guys to the mix? We won't be adding two elite guys, I'd feel comfy saying that. But, I could see us adding a multi year guy and a rental. Even if one of them is a swing guy, that just provides more depth.

 

Looking at the landscape, its far from settled, as to who is doing what, at the deadline. But, I'll list out the teams and their pieces that MAY wind up selling.....

 

Toronto

 

Pieces- JA Happ is a fairly decent pitcher and has 1-13 on his deal after this season. That's not horrible and he seems not to be a guy you'd blow your farm on obviously. Marco Estrada is a pure rental, he'd go before Happ. Again, solid addition depth-wise. Liriano is a rental too, he may be hard for them to move, at this point. Stroman? He's hurt. Plus, I legitimately see no reason for them to move him.

 

Tampa Bay

 

Pieces- Archer? Sorry, I don't see it. They're not even able to blow things up, with their attendance. So, they need to stick around in hell and hope for an outlier season. Odorizzi? He's got 2 years of arb left. My guess is they'd still want a TON for him. He'll be available, just not likely to be dealt. Cobb is a rental and WILL be dealt. Erasmo Ramirez is a dark horse, IMO. He's in arb and is a swing guy, I could see them moving on and he's not horrible.

 

White Sox

 

Pieces- Quintana is moving. To us? Highly doubtful, but I'm sure we'll be inquiring. He's got 3/29.35 left after this year. The price of acquisition would be uncomfortable, but he's the best guy moving at the deadline, that isn't a rental.....They're trying the flippy thing with Holland too.

 

Kansas City- What a sad group. Good thing they've got hitting to move. Jason Vargas has been excellent and will turn into a pumpkin soon. Ian Kennedy can opt out of 3/49. I don't see it, but I do see them trying to move him somehow.

 

Minnesota-

 

No idea if they'll sell. If they do, they've got Ervin Santana, with 1-13 left after this year. He'd be attractive to many teams. Phil Hughes has 2/26.8 left, I'm sure they'd love to move on from that.

 

Detroit

 

No clue if they sell either, but I lean no. They're developing a bit of decent young pitching and probably want Verlander there to help honestly. He'd have 3/78 on his deal, if he wants his option picked up. Zimmermann is sitting on 3/74 and they'd gladly eat your toe jam, to get you to take that off their books.

 

Angels

 

Another sad case of pitching. They may not sell. If they do, they've got swingman deluxe Jesse Chavez, who we've shown interest in, in the past. He's a rental. Nolasco is a rental too, but with a club option. Skaggs hits arb next year, I'd guess they'd prefer to keep him, or still be asking too much, at this point.

 

Oakland

 

Its all about Sonny Gray. If he's healthy, they'll move him. They've got 5 cost controlled guys behind him, some with decent upside. He fits us well, in that they need hitting.....

 

Seattle

 

Iwakuma has been bad. But, he's a rental, with an option. Glaardo is in the exact same boat. I fail to see them moving anyone else.

 

Texas

 

Darvish. If they sell, which looks likely.....He's the prize rental of the season. Martin Perez has 3 options at 22.5 total, I doubt he'd cost much. Not sure what they think of him at this stage.....

 

Atlanta

 

Teheran? He's got 3/31 left, he's not been good, and everything else they've got is a rental. So, my educated guess is he's staying put again. They've got Colon, Dickey, and Garcia all as rentals to try and flip. Teams have tried copycatting our approach, which is flattering and yet dumb. Because that market is way over saturated at this point.....

 

Miami

 

Volquez has 1-13 left. They COULD move him. They could also stand pat, with the team getting sold soon. Tom Koehler is a swing guy who's been awful, that we've shown interest in previously.

 

Philly

 

Hellickson gets moved this year. Feel confident in that. They've got youngsters everywhere else, maybe you could target excess from them and get a Jake Thompson cheap?(he's been awful too)

 

Cincy

 

Our man, Scott Feldman is back to be flipped again. Assuming they wind up selling, which isn't certain. Arroyo could be had too.

 

Milwaukee

 

Peralta has 2 years of arb left and is a DFA candidate. That's about it, for them.

 

Pittsburgh

 

They're not trading with us. But, I could see Garrit Cole being made available. He's got 2 years of arb left. Nova has 2/17 left on his deal after this year and is a bargain they've fixed.....

 

San Fran

 

TT posted a Brisbee article explaining why they won't be active. I kind of agree, but if Cueto is a goner and a sure thing to opt out of 4/84, I could SEE them moving him. Assuming they don't extend him obviously and make this a moo point. Matt Cain is a rental now, I'd think they'd be happy to move him at this stage.

 

San Diego

 

Flip city of pure poop. Cahill is the best they've got. We're probably a bit ticked we didn't keep him(if he'd have taken less than a guaranteed SP gig). Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin are also out there to be had. Jarred Cosart probably wouldn't be too hard to obtain as a pre arb swing guy.

 

Arizona

 

Greinke at 4/126.5? Doubtful. They'll probably stick in the low end of the playoff hunt too. Is Miller a guy they'd move now? He's going to miss part of next year and only has one year after that. Buy low chance? Corbin has a year left too, if they fall out of things....Slight chance of selling, my guess is they add actually....

 

I'll clean this up more later tonight. Wanted to list all the guys now.

 

The Rentals.....

 

Yu Darvish, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Jason Vargas, Trevor Cahill, Derek Holland, Scott Feldman, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yovani Gallardo, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, RA Dickey, Matt Cain, Clayton Richard

 

1 year of control guys

 

Ervin Santana 1-12, JA Happ 1-13, Edison Volquez 1-13

 

2 years of control

 

Jake Odorizzi(4.1), Garrit Cole(3.75), Sonny Gray(3.575), Ivan Nova 2-17

 

3+ years of control

 

Chris Archer 4-33.75

Julio Teheran 3-31

Carlos Quintana 3-29.5

Zack Greinke 4-126.5

Johnny Cueto 4-84, 5-106, or a rental

Edited May 10, 2017 by davell

[davell]

Put rentals in a category at the bottom, 1 year guys, 2 year guys, and 3+ into separate categories. Although I think Quintana is the only 3+ year guy that moves.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it's important to take stock of the current rotation to help inform who they might try and acquire.

 

- Lester - A pair of bad April starts notwithstanding, he's been fine and his overall numbers are as expected

- Hendricks - got bombed his first 3 starts but has righted the ship and looks to be following a similar path as last year, no reason to expect he won't continue to be good going forward

- Lackey - yesterday was his second truly good start in 7 tries, but he's also averaging 6 IP/start. It's on the lower end of expectations, but he's not pitching poorly for the back end starter he is.

- Anderson - on the DL and hopefully sent to Belize when he's ready to return

- Montgomery/Butler - They're going to be given a chance to take Anderson's spot, personally I'd expect Lackeyish production there, maybe with better run prevention over shorter outings. You know, like we expected from Anderson.

- Arrieta - hasn't given up less than 3 runs since his first start, he's been quite bad. His track record gives him leash to work things out since the stuff doesn't appear to be diminished.

 

With that out of the way, I think you can focus on two potential outcomes:

 

1) Cubs target middle of the road starter - This happens if Montgomery/Butler don't live up to the Lackey standard, or Lackey starts getting truly torched

2) Cubs target top 3 starter - This happens if Arrieta continues to pitch poorly, with a possibility of it happening in the above two situations as well

 

The tricky thing for me is I expect Arrieta to bounce back but not pitch exceptionally, and I also don't expect Montgomery and Lackey to pitch poorly enough to lose a rotation spot, leaving them without a gaping hole to patch. You can always send Montgomery to the pen or Butler to AAA if you find a real good deal, but I'm also skeptical of the front office paying midseason prices for a Stroman/Archer type that would necessitate such a move either.

 

 

Among the actual targets, I'd love to see if Stroman was actually available, and if they could take on some contract(s) that would help with his asking price. I also wouldn't turn down Teheran or Odorizzi, although for the latter I'm not sure he's such an upgrade that I'd want to displace Montgomery/Butler if they were doing fine.

[davell]

I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.

 

Donaldson will be 33 when his FA deal starts, and Pillar is the only offensive player they have who 1) actually can be expected to play well and 2) is not post-prime and going to continue to get worse. On the pitching side they have Stroman, Sanchez, and little else, Osuna is a good end of pen guy and that's about it. They play in the AL East too, and they have a lot of money in guys who are uncertain to even be average going forward(Martin, Tulo, Happ, Morales). They may logically decide Stroman is part of the next good Jays team, but they're real close to the 'blow it up' point too, and cashing in pitching assets sure isn't a bad decision if they do.

[davell]

I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.

 

Donaldson will be 33 when his FA deal starts, and Pillar is the only offensive player they have who 1) actually can be expected to play well and 2) is not post-prime and going to continue to get worse. On the pitching side they have Stroman, Sanchez, and little else, Osuna is a good end of pen guy and that's about it. They play in the AL East too, and they have a lot of money in guys who are uncertain to even be average going forward(Martin, Tulo, Happ, Morales). They may logically decide Stroman is part of the next good Jays team, but they're real close to the 'blow it up' point too, and cashing in pitching assets sure isn't a bad decision if they do.

 

I'm not arguing whether its the right thing to do or not. I'm just saying I don't think they'll pull up for a rebuild this early, when they'll have some semblance of hope for next year, barring injuries. If they wait a year, its not going to affect things that much, so I'd expect that route.

 

Especially since there's plenty of starting pitching options on the market that will alter Stromans value anyway.

[We Got The Whole 9]

What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

 

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[davell]

Here's the guys I EXPECT to get dealt....(not counting back end types)

 

75% chance or higher

Darvish, Quintana, Gray

 

50% chance

Cole, Cueto

 

25% chance

Teheran

 

10% chance or less

Archer, Stroman, Verlander, Greinke

 

Back end/middle of rotation types that have at least a full year of control moving forward....

 

50% chance or better

Happ, Santana

 

25% chance or less

Odorizzi

[davell]

What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

 

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I didn't include him because they're expecting to compete soon. Hell, they went into the year expecting 75ish wins this year. With their new stadium, they're going to be aggressive quick. I do NOT think its going to work great, but I think they make a strong push this off season. They like Foltynewicz, I don't see them moving him. If they did, I guess they'd want a major league ready position player, ala Happ(off season type of move)

[We Got The Whole 9]

What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

 

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I didn't include him because they're expecting to compete soon. Hell, they went into the year expecting 75ish wins this year. With their new stadium, they're going to be aggressive quick. I do NOT think its going to work great, but I think they make a strong push this off season. They like Foltynewicz, I don't see them moving him. If they did, I guess they'd want a major league ready position player, ala Happ(off season type of move)

I think you're probably right but they are getting a 250 wOBA from their 3B position, manned by 32 y/o Adonis Garcia. What about a Candy-led package? That would really solidify their future infield with Swanson and Albies.

 

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[davell]

What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

 

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I didn't include him because they're expecting to compete soon. Hell, they went into the year expecting 75ish wins this year. With their new stadium, they're going to be aggressive quick. I do NOT think its going to work great, but I think they make a strong push this off season. They like Foltynewicz, I don't see them moving him. If they did, I guess they'd want a major league ready position player, ala Happ(off season type of move)

I think you're probably right but they are getting a 250 wOBA from their 3B position, manned by 32 y/o Adonis Garcia. What about a Candy-led package? That would really solidify their future infield with Swanson and Albies.

 

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Eh, I think they'd need Happ as a starter for him. They're a great fit for Candelario, but its probably more for Wisler, as we've discussed before on here before. At this stage, I'm not sure I'd even do that deal.

 

I would love to trade Candelario for a guy in AA or AAA though, just not sure its Wisler anymore.

[We Got The Whole 9]

What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

 

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The thing with him is that he doesn't do anything well besides throw hard. He's young and cheap, but beyond that there's no appeal. Even his minor league career doesn't indicate significantly higher upside - he was more solid than spectacular at his best. Some might point to Arrieta as an example of terrible to awesome, but Arrieta at his worst in the minors was better than anything Foltynewicz did, was a significantly more accomplished amateur before that, and had way better breaking stuff.

 

I feel like he's Odorizzi with more team control and we've shown significant interest in Odorizzi.

 

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[We Got The Whole 9]

 

The thing with him is that he doesn't do anything well besides throw hard. He's young and cheap, but beyond that there's no appeal. Even his minor league career doesn't indicate significantly higher upside - he was more solid than spectacular at his best. Some might point to Arrieta as an example of terrible to awesome, but Arrieta at his worst in the minors was better than anything Foltynewicz did, was a significantly more accomplished amateur before that, and had way better breaking stuff.

 

I feel like he's Odorizzi with more team control and we've shown significant interest in Odorizzi.

 

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That would be a huge step up for him. Unfortunately there's nothing to really indicate it's on the way. Odorizzi's got a deeper set of pitches, better command, better control, is a way better bet to stay healthy, has a more successful background, has at least logged the innings they're (likely) shopping for...

 

Both average about 5.5 innings per start, 20-22 K%, up to this year Odorizzi had been a 7-8 BB%, which is where MF is. MF gets about 5% more GB, and over his last 200 IP, JO has been more of a mid-4s FIP guy, which is what MF has been but his sample is only 250 IP. Purely by results he's pretty much as good as JO is, as JO is trending in the wrong direction.

 

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[davell]

I liked Odorizzi a lot more two years or so ago, than I do now. At this point, I think any upside he may have had is likely gone and he's the epitomy of a number 4 guy. There's nothing at all wrong with that, but Tampa likely values him way more than what should be given up for a guy like him. The low salary is about the best quality he has and that'll be gone next year, once he's making 7-8 mill. It'd be relatively easy to find his production thru FA for 10 mill a year or so and it won't cost you an Ian Happ type of prospect, to get that guy.

[We Got The Whole 9]

 

That would be a huge step up for him. Unfortunately there's nothing to really indicate it's on the way. Odorizzi's got a deeper set of pitches, better command, better control, is a way better bet to stay healthy, has a more successful background, has at least logged the innings they're (likely) shopping for...

 

Both average about 5.5 innings per start, 20-22 K%, up to this year Odorizzi had been a 7-8 BB%, which is where MF is. MF gets about 5% more GB, and over his last 200 IP, JO has been more of a mid-4s FIP guy, which is what MF has been but his sample is only 250 IP. Purely by results he's pretty much as good as JO is, as JO is trending in the wrong direction.

 

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Yes but:

 

- Odorizzi has done it way more often at all levels of ball

- Does it against tougher competition at the ML level

- If JO is trending down already at 27, why would you want to spend precious resources on a guy with a watered down version of his skill set only two years younger? I mean if he were super cheap to pick up that would be a find, but the easy/safe assumption is that anyone and everyone will demand the Cubs pay a premium

Because there's still a lot of time to unearth that upside and I think realistically the best we are going to get will be a MORP type. I'd rather get a guy in that case that has many years of control. I really dont want to simply be in the rental market every season. If he brings down the HR rate he should be pretty decent.

 

Too bad Atlanta wouldn't consider Newcomb.

 

I really think Candy to Atlanta makes perfect sense.

 

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[We Got The Whole 9]

What do you guys think of Andrew Triggs? Dude is 28 and slipped through the cracks, he throws his breaking balls more than half of the time, and his periphs are (and were in milb, too) excellent, with great command of the strike zone. Barely any service time, 90 innings of 3.5 xFIP.

 

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Edited May 11, 2017 by We Got The Whole 9

[We Got The Whole 9]

You know how Foltynewicz makes for an interesting pickup? Second piece in a bigger Teheran trade to be a multi-inning power reliever. Taking on Kemp to add some pop to the bench and offer a platoon option for Schwarber (.662 OPS against LHP in 2017 with a 35% K rate and .138 IsoSLG, .548/41%/.129 career) could bring down the prospect cost enough to make it worthwhile.

 

Teheran is so inconsistent. Currently sitting with the 4th worst xFIP in the league. He's like a box of chocolates... or the pitching version of Starlin Castro. Velocity is also down but who knows what to trust these days in that regard. I don't know man, he's a pretty overrated player.

 

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[davell]

What do you guys think of Andrew Triggs? Dude is 28 and slipped through the cracks, he throws his breaking balls more than half of the time, and his periphs are (and were in milb, too) excellent, with great command of the strike zone. Barely any service time, 90 innings of 3.5 xFIP.

 

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To me, he's kind of tailor-made for Oakland. Why would Beane trade him? They've got 5 young guys(or cheap at least) in Graveman, Triggs, Manaea, Hahn, and Cotton. My guess is Beane values that a bunch and allows for trading off Gray, who probably scares him at this point anyway.

[We Got The Whole 9]

What do you guys think of Andrew Triggs? Dude is 28 and slipped through the cracks, he throws his breaking balls more than half of the time, and his periphs are (and were in milb, too) excellent, with great command of the strike zone. Barely any service time, 90 innings of 3.5 xFIP.

 

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To me, he's kind of tailor-made for Oakland. Why would Beane trade him? They've got 5 young guys(or cheap at least) in Graveman, Triggs, Manaea, Hahn, and Cotton. My guess is Beane values that a bunch and allows for trading off Gray, who probably scares him at this point anyway.

Actually, your response, I basically typed out the same thing but I erased it before I posted... so I agree with your point 100%

 

I guess the thought process behind it is that he's old with major risk. Maybe Beane would want to sell high if he does keep this up through June.

 

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[Tryptamine]

I think Ervin Santana is perfect for what we need right now. A guy to buy us time until FA 2018/2019 or a starter from or a starter from the farm emerges. He's closer to a frontline starter than a back of the rotation guy some of you refer to him as. Since July 1st 2016 Santana has posted a 2.21ERA over 150 2/3IP to go with a 3.59FIP. The Twins have Berrios ready to go and Fernando Romero not too far off as well so I can't imagine they're all that interested in hanging onto Santana if he can bring them a few nice pieces.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Ervin Santana is perfect for what we need right now. A guy to buy us time until FA 2018/2019 or a starter from or a starter from the farm emerges. He's closer to a frontline starter than a back of the rotation guy some of you refer to him as. Since July 1st 2016 Santana has posted a 2.21ERA over 150 2/3IP to go with a 3.59FIP. The Twins have Berrios ready to go and Fernando Romero not too far off as well so I can't imagine they're all that interested in hanging onto Santana if he can bring them a few nice pieces.

 

In that timeframe he has a 3.59 FIP and 4.07 xFIP, which is explained by a .219 (!) BABIP against. Santana is fine as a guy to give you innings and I always like AL to NL transitions, but I don't think there's another gear there. He's not someone you want starting a playoff game any more than the Lackeys and Hammels of the world. He's decent at everything but not excellent at anything.

[Tryptamine]

I think Ervin Santana is perfect for what we need right now. A guy to buy us time until FA 2018/2019 or a starter from or a starter from the farm emerges. He's closer to a frontline starter than a back of the rotation guy some of you refer to him as. Since July 1st 2016 Santana has posted a 2.21ERA over 150 2/3IP to go with a 3.59FIP. The Twins have Berrios ready to go and Fernando Romero not too far off as well so I can't imagine they're all that interested in hanging onto Santana if he can bring them a few nice pieces.

 

In that timeframe he has a 3.59 FIP and 4.07 xFIP, which is explained by a .219 (!) BABIP against. Santana is fine as a guy to give you innings and I always like AL to NL transitions, but I don't think there's another gear there. He's not someone you want starting a playoff game any more than the Lackeys and Hammels of the world. He's decent at everything but not excellent at anything.

 

Look at the quality of contact. His SOFT% is way up and his HARD and MED% are both down. His LD% is down from 21.7% to 13.6% so it's no wonder his babip is so low when people aren't making good contact against him. What has led to the drastic increase in poor contact? I have no idea, but based on the huge increase in Pull% there has to be something.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Ervin Santana is perfect for what we need right now. A guy to buy us time until FA 2018/2019 or a starter from or a starter from the farm emerges. He's closer to a frontline starter than a back of the rotation guy some of you refer to him as. Since July 1st 2016 Santana has posted a 2.21ERA over 150 2/3IP to go with a 3.59FIP. The Twins have Berrios ready to go and Fernando Romero not too far off as well so I can't imagine they're all that interested in hanging onto Santana if he can bring them a few nice pieces.

 

In that timeframe he has a 3.59 FIP and 4.07 xFIP, which is explained by a .219 (!) BABIP against. Santana is fine as a guy to give you innings and I always like AL to NL transitions, but I don't think there's another gear there. He's not someone you want starting a playoff game any more than the Lackeys and Hammels of the world. He's decent at everything but not excellent at anything.

 

Look at the quality of contact. His SOFT% is way up and his HARD and MED% are both down. His LD% is down from 21.7% to 13.6% so it's no wonder his babip is so low when people aren't making good contact against him. What has led to the drastic increase in poor contact? I have no idea, but based on the huge increase in Pull% there has to be something.

 

I'm not saying he's not someone who can't beat his fielding independent peripherals, but Arrieta at his peak was still running a .240 BABIP. I'm pretty skeptical that Santana figured something out in his mid-30s that makes him a consistent low 3's ERA due mostly to soft contact.

[davell]

According to Keith Law, on Olney's podcast, we were heavily scouting Greinke in ST. Not just normal coverage type stuff. Something to keep an eye on moving forward.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Greinke's been great this year. But his velo is way down. Struggling to get over 90. He'd fit right in.