The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[17 Seconds]

somebody tell bryce he isn't on the cubs yet

[Regular Show]

Man, he really likes alternating really good seasons and shitty seasons.

 

I guess this just means Bryce will have an MVP campaign in his first year as a Cubs player.

[imb]

He's been less valuable (1.2 WAR in 75 games vs 1.1 WAR in 59 games) than Jason Heyward, who should opt out and get $300 mil too.

[Cubswin11]

Can he pitch?

[squally1313]

Setting aside Harper's struggles this year, since I generally believe they're fluky and won't continue...

 

With the reemergence of Russell and Heyward, and Baez looking like he has enough 'hot' in his hot/cold streaks to be very valuable, at what point does Harper start to look like a square peg in a round hole given the needs of this team, especially compared to Machado?

 

Said another way, what gives you more value long term...signing Harper and having to essentially dump Heyward or make him a very expensive backup (even with his resurgence, he's still projected to finish at around 2.2 fWAR, which isn't exactly great value), or signing Machado and using Baez or Russell to shore up what could be very real issues in the rotation?

 

Worth pointing out that Machado's monthly OPS has gone from 1.124 to .883 to .747.

 

I get that the basic argument here is "Baez and Russell are good, Bryce Harper is good, we should have all of them on our team." But we might have to create a pitching market going forward, and if we can have a successful outfield from optimizing Schwarber/Almora/Happ/Heyward, being able to float Baez or Russell to get a quality starter has appeal.

[Sammy Sofa]

Heyward would just move to CF and Almora and Happ are the 4th OF or traded.

[imb]

Heyward would just move to CF and Almora and Happ are the 4th OF or traded.

 

Yep, platoon heyward/almora in CF and if you get desperate and need to trade for pitching, just throw Happ in a deal.

[squally1313]

Heyward would just move to CF and Almora and Happ are the 4th OF or traded.

 

Yep, platoon heyward/almora in CF and if you get desperate and need to trade for pitching, just throw Happ in a deal.

 

With some simplifying assumptions (Schwarber 'full time' in left, Zobrist gone):

 

Almora/Happ

Heyward

Machado

A pitcher you can get for Russell

 

vs

 

Almora/Heyward

Harper

Russell

A pitcher you can get for Happ

[Cubswin11]

Don’t trade anyone, sign Bryce. It will work if we can afford it (Zobrist is gone after next year anyways).

 

Schwarber LF (maybe a little Catcher and 1B)

Almora CF

Happ OF/3B/2B/1B

Heyward CF/RF

Harper RF/LF

Zobrist LF/RF/2B/1B

 

All those guys have platoon numbers to protect/take advantage of and also most have some injury history that a little routine rest and maintenance isn’t the worst of things. LaStella is the odd man out.

 

Harper gives us maximum versatility options (plus he’s just better) since if it’s Machado you’re only going to have one SS in Baez on the roster.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Bertz]

I think the roster has enough flexibility that Harper/Machado should come down to which player you like more for the contract. If you sign Machado, Russell is likely sent somewhere for pitching. If you sign Harper, Happ likely goes.

 

Also, Heyward's re-emergence probably makes it so trading him is no longer a pipedream. He has not (and at this probably cannot) done enough to make opting out a legitimate possibility for 2018, but if this is his new normal his 2019 opt-out is likely in play. I'd imagine you could trade him, include a bunch of money in 2020+ to protect the other team against him re-collapsing, and something could come together relatively easily. I'm not sure if that's the right move, but it's certainly more possible than it looked in March. So it might be a matter of keeping the homegrown part of the band together and lifting out Heyward for Harper.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even if they did sign Machado, ideally they'd move him back to 3B and move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF, so no need to trade Russell.

[Cubswin11]

Even if they did sign Machado, ideally they'd move him back to 3B and move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF, so no need to trade Russell.

I would think that too, since Baez can’t be your only real SS option. But Bryant is already plenty fine at 3B and has more value there, give me Bryce damn it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Machado has a .341 wOBA since May 1st and his career UZR at SS is now -8. Bryant is in the biggest slump of his career and hasn't hit a home run since the Truman administration and still has a .352 wOBA in that timeframe.

[Bertz]

Even if they did sign Machado, ideally they'd move him back to 3B and move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF, so no need to trade Russell.

 

That's a good point. Also would make me want Machado way less. I am kind of hoping that Machado's not as bad at SS as the numbers say he is, and that it's a Dexter Fowler situation where UZR/DRS are punishing him for the positioning mistakes of the O's coaches. If he's not actually a SS I don't think he's a guy to give hundreds of millions to.

[Backtobanks]

I don't get the lack of respect that you guys (and Maddon) have for Almora. Suggestions of trading him or making him a platoon player are ridiculous. Almora is leading the team in hitting and was hitting 100 points higher than Schwarber last year while Maddon "searched" for a leadoff man.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, hey, Albert.

[Cubswin11]

I don't get the lack of respect that you guys (and Maddon) have for Almora. Suggestions of trading him or making him a platoon player are ridiculous. Almora is leading the team in hitting and was hitting 100 points higher than Schwarber last year while Maddon "searched" for a leadoff man.

I think Maddon "respects" him plenty. He's a very nice and useful player and he's fine to leadoff vs LHP but not RHP. He's made strides vs RHP but there's still certain profiles you want to shield him from, he doesn't walk much and he's slow as horsefeathers and he's carrying a really high BABIP this year for a guy who isn't fast. The diving/jumping/running catches in CF are great and all but they also are a product of his slow speed, like yesterday he didn't get to that ball in RCF on Hernandez's ball.

 

He also has never been the picture of health since he's been in the organization, he gets banged up easily and often and needs to be given about as much rest and maintenance as a non-catcher position player needs. If the lineup is at full health he's probably not starting for me vs RHP in the playoffs, tbh.

 

He's a really nice player and does a lot of things well, especially vs LHP and he has a clear role here and I wouldn't really want to move him under many scenarios now or in the offseason.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Almora is a good player who has gotten better this year. RHP are going to adjust back to his 'slap ground balls through the right side' gambit and his .395 BABIP against them will fall. Again, he's a good player, above average depending on your exact impression of his offense + defense. Average or slightly better puts him in stiff competition with no less than 3 other players for the role of 7th best position player on the team, and since all of those position players are still gonna be around next year barring trade, not giving him a standalone job is the most prudent course of action.

[Cubswin11]

Oh, hey, Albert.

I think we found patient zero of the "PLAY ALMORA EVERYDAY" twitter brigade

[Derwood]

Almora in 2018:

 

vsLHP: .303/.356/.455/.811

vsRHP: .323/.360/.443/.803

 

And he's had 100 more AB's vs RHP

[squally1313]

Almora in 2018:

 

vsLHP: .303/.356/.455/.811

vsRHP: .323/.360/.443/.803

 

And he's had 100 more AB's vs RHP

 

Now do BABIPs

[Cubswin11]

The idea of Joe Maddon not respecting a player is also hilarious. The guy goes above and beyond what any manager does to sing the praises of his players and shield them from criticism.

[squally1313]

Obviously getting off track here in this thread. It's good to see the steps Almora has made this year, and it's really fun to watch him in the outfield, even if it's in a Jim Edmonds type of way. Whatever worth you put in it, he's got the intangibles and leadership qualities that can help a team like this. And he doesn't hit arbitration until 2020. These are all really good things. But.

 

Against LHP: 8.2 BB%, 6.8 K%, 303/356/455, .311 BABIP, .348 wOBA

Against RHP: 5.0 BB%, 20.1 K%, 323/360/443, .395 BABIP, .346 wOBA

 

Hits about the same number of groundballs from each side, and hits more line drives (21.7% to 16.4%) from the right side at the expense of fly balls. But his infield fly ball rate is much higher (20.5% to 4.8%) from the right side, so that should negate any expected BABIP benefit from the increased line drives.

[17 Seconds]

I don't get the lack of respect that you guys (and Maddon) have for Almora. Suggestions of trading him or making him a platoon player are ridiculous. Almora is leading the team in hitting and was hitting 100 points higher than Schwarber last year while Maddon "searched" for a leadoff man.

 

"leading the team in hitting"

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I don't get the lack of respect that you guys (and Maddon) have for Almora. Suggestions of trading him or making him a platoon player are ridiculous. Almora is leading the team in hitting and was hitting 100 points higher than Schwarber last year while Maddon "searched" for a leadoff man.