Cubs offseason thread

[sweetpeteman]

Smyly seems like an ideal move to RP candidate:

 

 

2016:

First time through order:

K/9: 10.52 BB/9: 2.63 3.05 ERA/ 3.29 FIP

Second time:

K/9: 7.76 BB/9: 2.15 6.18ERA, 5.35 FIP

 

His career numbers are pretty similar.

[Tim]

What makes anyone think Smyly will be reliably healthy?

Assuming health, the Rays will have Archer, Smyly, Cobb, Snell, Andriese, Odorizzi, and Erasmo Ramirez, with Schultz, Guerrieri, and Honeywell knocking on the door.

 

Also Smyly did make 30 starts this year.

I'd be very interested in Archer, obviously.

- Cobb doesn't make sense as he'd only be here for one year.

- I loved Smyly after 2015, but he has a lot of questions after this past year. If he could be had cheaply, it would be great. But nothing from Tampa ever comes cheaply.

- Odorizzi would be okay, but I don't love him. So many home runs.

Everyone else is either meh or still at a point where the Rays won't let them go.

[Tim]

Question:

 

Assuming it meant bringing back Dex so that Zobrist could slide back to 2nd base, how would people feel about Soler + Baez + Candelario + Cease + De La Cruz for Archer + Colome?

 

Colome on his own would probably bring back a Ken Giles type of return. Archer will also bring back a ridiculous return. I don't think the offer I listed above would even come close to getting it done. But I don't know that I could go higher than that, either.

[Tryptamine]

Would something like Soler, Happ/Jeimer and some other lesser piece(s) make sense for Cargo and Hoffman or Bettis? I don't think they'd move Gray but obviously include him in there if they were as he'd be a #1 target if available from them.

I honestly keep wondering if we're destined to deal with the Rays. Something has to give on their glut of starters.

 

Would something like Soler, Jeimer and one of Sands/Stinnett/Kellogg be not enough for Colome and one of Odorizzi/Smyly/Andriese?

 

I suggested Soler/Candelario/Clifton for Odorizzi and Colome a while ago. I think that's quite fair.

[Tim]

Would something like Soler, Happ/Jeimer and some other lesser piece(s) make sense for Cargo and Hoffman or Bettis? I don't think they'd move Gray but obviously include him in there if they were as he'd be a #1 target if available from them.

I honestly keep wondering if we're destined to deal with the Rays. Something has to give on their glut of starters.

 

Would something like Soler, Jeimer and one of Sands/Stinnett/Kellogg be not enough for Colome and one of Odorizzi/Smyly/Andriese?

 

I suggested Soler/Candelario/Clifton for Odorizzi and Colome a while ago. I think that's quite fair.

Ken Giles alone netted Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz

 

I think people are vastly underestimating the market for Colome.

[Tryptamine]

Question:

 

Assuming it meant bringing back Dex so that Zobrist could slide back to 2nd base, how would people feel about Soler + Baez + Candelario + Cease + De La Cruz for Archer + Colome?

 

Colome on his own would probably bring back a Ken Giles type of return. Archer will also bring back a ridiculous return. I don't think the offer I listed above would even come close to getting it done. But I don't know that I could go higher than that, either.

 

Hand to the fire I probably accept it, but it's a max offer for me and I acknowledge that I overpaid a little to really strengthen the chance to win in 2017-2018.

[Tryptamine]

I honestly keep wondering if we're destined to deal with the Rays. Something has to give on their glut of starters.

 

Would something like Soler, Jeimer and one of Sands/Stinnett/Kellogg be not enough for Colome and one of Odorizzi/Smyly/Andriese?

 

I suggested Soler/Candelario/Clifton for Odorizzi and Colome a while ago. I think that's quite fair.

Ken Giles alone netted Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz

 

I think people are vastly underestimating the market for Colome.

 

It was immediately seen as a terrible deal. Just because someone gets raked over the coals doesn't make that the new market going rate. VV by himself would net more than Giles now.

[Cubswin11]

Archer is the only Rays pitcher I really want/would be willing to pay for. Sure if we could get Odorizzi for Jeimer and like 1 of Zagunis, Caratini or Dewees and spare parts, great do it but it probably is going to cost more for him and at that point just sell out for Archer Edited November 11, 2016 by Cubswin11

[sweetpeteman]

Archer I would pay for. Odorizzi I would take as part of a package with Colome and I would prefer to not include Baez/Almora if that's the case.

 

 

Smyly/Cobb + Colome would only be ok if it's for a lesser package - Soler/Candelario/lesser prospects

[raw]

I want Colome. He's exactly the type of guy the Cubs should be looking at for closer if they aren't going to spend on one of the top 3 FAs. But really good relievers are going to cost starter value (in terms of prospects) to acquire. Colome is one of the few I'd pay that type of price for. He seems like a guy that could be a multi-inning reliever too as he started games as recently as July 2015.

 

It's really an interesting dilemma from the Cubs point of view. They are obviously looking toward Oct/Nov with every move they make. And a shutdown closer may be more valuable than a guy that potentially only starts 1 game per playoff series, and there are diminishing returns when you're talking about a guy that has to be better Lackey. But the Cubs also have to look toward getting a start or two for 2017 and beyond. I'd be more apt to give up a package for a really good reliever (especially one with 4 years of control left) than I would for a really good starter. I'd just as soon go after a Bosio project and wait for the 2017 offseason and a much better FA class of starting pitchers.

[Donzo]

Trading with the Rays is tough... Just remember what the Cubs paid for Garza... Different management with the Rays, but the same M.O.

 

Also, a lot of teams are looking at the Rays pitching. There's talk (I live in Clearwater) the Braves would unload their farm system for Archer, Odorizzi and Colome.

[davell]

So, here's what I'd consider to be the guys we've got a "shot" at acquiring this offsesson, from a SP standpoint.

 

Tampa- Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, Cobb

 

I doubt its Archer that they move. And I doubt we'll get Odorizzi, since Tampa won't come off of Javy for him. And they're supposedly not high on Soler. May put a damper on Colome too, unless they'll take minor leaguers....

 

White Sox- Sale, Quintana

 

I think its a cold day in hell they'd trade either to us. But I guess that since we won the WS, at least they don't have to worry about giving us the piece that put us over the top.

 

Detroit- Verlander

 

I don't see us adding an older guy like this at that money. If he's dealt, I'd imagine its the Dodgers basically buying him and not giving up a ton. Doubt he's moved though.

 

Royals- Yordano Ventura

 

He's an ass. That probably takes him off our radar. But I could see the Royals moving him and he's got some talent.

 

Oakland- Sonny Gray

 

I know Beane would be selling low. But if he doesn't expect a full recovery, he could still extract some value. A deal for him and/or Doolittle, seems like a decent bet, in my mind.

 

Seattle- Paxton, Walker, Karns

 

We've had rumored interest in the first two before. It'd be cool if they've soured on Walker enough to where Soler and Happ or Candelario is realistic.

 

Atlanta- Wisler, Blair

 

They may have soured on one or both of these two. Worth a look in and they've been linked to Soler in the past, even if their OF is supposedly full, with Inciarte and crap.

 

Arizona- Miller, Bradley, Corbin

 

With a new GM, they may not have a lot invested in this group. At any rate, I could see any of the 3 being dealt. Each interesting in their own way.

 

Colorado- Bettis, Chatwood, Butler

 

No, I don't see Gray or Hoffman available. But any of these 3 could be. Anything special? No. But depth and Butler is an interesting reclamation project.

 

What's available from us? Loaded question, but here's the list of guys I think will all be Cubs in 2017....

 

Lester, Lackey, Hendricks, Montgomery, Arrieta, Edwards, Dylan Cease

Contreras, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Heyward, Zobrist, Almora, Eloy Jimenez

 

If anyone from that list is dealt, I'll be extremely surprised.

 

My guess? We get Gray for Soler/Candelario/Zagunis/Clifton.....

[Donzo]

I wont bore the board with constant local updates about the Rays, but I'll state this now.

 

Any and all Rays are up for trades this offseason, especially Archer. He's gone public with his criticism of the organization, he's gone. The Rays management has identified this offseason as an especially good offseason to get high returns on their assets. That appears to be accurate.

 

Also, they wouldn't mind tanking the next two years to save money and kill the little local support they still have for the Rays- they're very motivated to get out of their stadium deal. And, they could really accumulate an incredible amount of young assets. With what they already have on the farm, what they could get in trades this offseason and in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts, it's mindboggling how much young talent they could have by June 2019. Just in time to move to Tampa, Orlando, Vegas or wherever.

 

To point, the Rays have six top assets they could trade this offseason. Here's how I see it:

 

Archer- 90% chance he gets traded... Huge return. Atlanta is the early favorite.

 

Longoria- 50% chance he gets traded (yep)... Huge return. Excellent player coming off a good year and has that crazy cheap long term contract. The Dodgers are really interested... Myself, I hope he's traded. I would miss him, he's the face of the franchise... He just deserves better.

 

Colome- 67% chance he gets traded... Huge return. The value of closers is at an all time high and a lot of teams want Colome. He's just beginning his closing career, he was great last year, has everything you want in a closer and is under team control for four more years... No early favorite.

 

Odirizzi, Smyly and Cobb- 50% chance two of the three are traded. Good return for all three... Odirizzi probably has the most value. If Cobb wasn't coming off TJ surgery rehab (five starts in 2015), his value would be much higher.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Donzo

[Donzo]

I wont bore the board with constant local updates about the Rays, but I'll state this now.

 

Any and all Rays are up for trades this offseason, especially Archer. He's gone public with his criticism of the organization, he's gone. The Rays management has identified this offseason as an especially good offseason to get high returns on their assets. That appears to be accurate.

 

Also, they wouldn't mind tanking the next two years to save money and kill the little local support they still have for the Rays- they're very motivated to get out of their stadium deal. And, they could really accumulate an incredible amount of young assets. With what they already have on the farm, what they could get in trades this offseason and in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts, it's mindboggling how much young talent they could have by June 2019. Just in time to move to Tampa, Orlando, Vegas or wherever.

 

To point, the Rays have six top assets they could trade this offseason. Here's how I see it:

 

Archer- 90% chance he gets traded... Huge return. Atlanta is the early favorite.

 

Longoria- 50% chance he gets traded (yep)... Huge return. Excellent player coming off a good year and has that crazy cheap long term contract. The Dodgers are really interested... Myself, I hope he's traded. I would miss him, he's the face of the franchise... He just deserves better.

 

Colome- 67% chance he gets traded... Huge return. The value of closers is at an all time high and a lot of teams want Colome. He's just beginning his closing career, he was great last year, has everything you want in a closer and is under team control for four more years... No early favorite.

 

Odirizzi, Smyly and Cobb- 50% chance two of the three are traded. Good return for all three... Odirizzi probably has the most value. If Cobb wasn't coming off TJ surgery rehab (five starts in 2015), his value would be much higher.

[Donzo]

:flythew:

[raw]

So, here's what I'd consider to be the guys we've got a "shot" at acquiring this offsesson, from a SP standpoint.

 

Tampa- Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, Cobb

 

I doubt its Archer that they move. And I doubt we'll get Odorizzi, since Tampa won't come off of Javy for him. And they're supposedly not high on Soler. May put a damper on Colome too, unless they'll take minor leaguers....

 

White Sox- Sale, Quintana

 

I think its a cold day in hell they'd trade either to us. But I guess that since we won the WS, at least they don't have to worry about giving us the piece that put us over the top.

 

Detroit- Verlander

 

I don't see us adding an older guy like this at that money. If he's dealt, I'd imagine its the Dodgers basically buying him and not giving up a ton. Doubt he's moved though.

 

Royals- Yordano Ventura

 

He's an ass. That probably takes him off our radar. But I could see the Royals moving him and he's got some talent.

 

Oakland- Sonny Gray

 

I know Beane would be selling low. But if he doesn't expect a full recovery, he could still extract some value. A deal for him and/or Doolittle, seems like a decent bet, in my mind.

 

Seattle- Paxton, Walker, Karns

 

We've had rumored interest in the first two before. It'd be cool if they've soured on Walker enough to where Soler and Happ or Candelario is realistic.

 

Atlanta- Wisler, Blair

 

They may have soured on one or both of these two. Worth a look in and they've been linked to Soler in the past, even if their OF is supposedly full, with Inciarte and crap.

 

Arizona- Miller, Bradley, Corbin

 

With a new GM, they may not have a lot invested in this group. At any rate, I could see any of the 3 being dealt. Each interesting in their own way.

 

Colorado- Bettis, Chatwood, Butler

 

No, I don't see Gray or Hoffman available. But any of these 3 could be. Anything special? No. But depth and Butler is an interesting reclamation project.

 

What's available from us? Loaded question, but here's the list of guys I think will all be Cubs in 2017....

 

Lester, Lackey, Hendricks, Montgomery, Arrieta, Edwards, Dylan Cease

Contreras, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Heyward, Zobrist, Almora, Eloy Jimenez

 

If anyone from that list is dealt, I'll be extremely surprised.

 

My guess? We get Gray for Soler/Candelario/Zagunis/Clifton.....

 

I think if the Cubs bring back Fowler and a team really wants Almora for pitching.....he'll be available in the right deal. Same with Cease, though I could see it being an either/or with him and De La Cruz.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Rays line up so very well for the Cubs to trade with, they have arms of pretty much every profile that you could want. Ace potential? Archer. Controllable and past the injury nexus with room to be better? Odorizzi. Buy-low LHP who controls contact the way the Cubs like? Smyly. Relief ace? Colome.

 

The problem is that there is a reason that the Rays haven't made any trades from that pitching depth, and it's that their valuation of those pitchers has bordered on the absurd. Maybe this is the offseason where they re-evaluate and pull the trigger, it's definitely a possibility. The problem is I don't think the Rays are going to be quick on the trigger finger to do so, and if we've learned nothing else about the Cubs under Theo, it's that they very much prefer 'fast and done' to 'perfect' when it comes to trading for players.

[Tryptamine]

The Rays line up so very well for the Cubs to trade with, they have arms of pretty much every profile that you could want. Ace potential? Archer. Controllable and past the injury nexus with room to be better? Odorizzi. Buy-low LHP who controls contact the way the Cubs like? Smyly. Relief ace? Colome.

 

The problem is that there is a reason that the Rays haven't made any trades from that pitching depth, and it's that their valuation of those pitchers has bordered on the absurd. Maybe this is the offseason where they re-evaluate and pull the trigger, it's definitely a possibility. The problem is I don't think the Rays are going to be quick on the trigger finger to do so, and if we've learned nothing else about the Cubs under Theo, it's that they very much prefer 'fast and done' to 'perfect' when it comes to trading for players.

 

This is exactly why a deal hasn't been done. Asking for Baez and two more top prospects for Odorizzi was absurd. However, now with such a traffic jam of talent they're going to have to get more realistic if they want to keep from wasting their value.

[Gilby]

I'm intrigued by davell's idea of trading for Sonny Gray. There are some big red flags, including health, and that's a good package, but it's a group of players I'd be willing to sacrifice to bet on Gray. He's got three more years of control and the 2016 A's infield defense was an abomination. Gray's a big time ground ball pitcher, so I'd be very interested to put the best infield defense in baseball behind him and see if he can't put up some more ace-like ERAs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the Cubs place a lot of value on health when it comes to pitchers, and it's part of the reason that they've been able to keep their rotation so healthy. That doesn't mean they won't trade for someone with potential health risks, but someone who missed a bunch of time with a forearm injury and had their command leave them before the injury is an enormous red flag if you're giving up a package of any real value.

[davell]

I think the Cubs place a lot of value on health when it comes to pitchers, and it's part of the reason that they've been able to keep their rotation so healthy. That doesn't mean they won't trade for someone with potential health risks, but someone who missed a bunch of time with a forearm injury and had their command leave them before the injury is an enormous red flag if you're giving up a package of any real value.

 

While I agree that a deal for Gray would be far outside the MO for our group, they've also said that at some stage they'll have to make a few moves that are uncomfortable.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the Cubs place a lot of value on health when it comes to pitchers, and it's part of the reason that they've been able to keep their rotation so healthy. That doesn't mean they won't trade for someone with potential health risks, but someone who missed a bunch of time with a forearm injury and had their command leave them before the injury is an enormous red flag if you're giving up a package of any real value.

 

While I agree that a deal for Gray would be far outside the MO for our group, they've also said that at some stage they'll have to make a few moves that are uncomfortable.

 

I think there's a distinction between uncomfortable and out of character. Uncomfortable is trading more than you want to get a guy you really like(for me this would be Teheran, Quintana, or Odorizzi), or trading for a guy who doesn't check every box because the opportunity is there(for me this might be Manaea, Bradley, or even Bauer). It doesn't have to mean trading for a guy who is probably more likely than not to need arm surgery at this point, especially when he would cost more than scraps in return.

[davell]

I think the Cubs place a lot of value on health when it comes to pitchers, and it's part of the reason that they've been able to keep their rotation so healthy. That doesn't mean they won't trade for someone with potential health risks, but someone who missed a bunch of time with a forearm injury and had their command leave them before the injury is an enormous red flag if you're giving up a package of any real value.

 

While I agree that a deal for Gray would be far outside the MO for our group, they've also said that at some stage they'll have to make a few moves that are uncomfortable.

 

I think there's a distinction between uncomfortable and out of character. Uncomfortable is trading more than you want to get a guy you really like(for me this would be Teheran, Quintana, or Odorizzi), or trading for a guy who doesn't check every box because the opportunity is there(for me this might be Manaea, Bradley, or even Bauer). It doesn't have to mean trading for a guy who is probably more likely than not to need arm surgery at this point, especially when he would cost more than scraps in return.

 

I won't argue that. But my reasoning hinges partially on the fact that each of those 3 guys you just brought up are extremely unlikely to be Cubs. Quintana because he's crosstown, Odorizzi because the Rays are likely wanting Javy+, and Teheran because he's not on the market whatsoever.

 

I get that Gray isn't ideal by any stretch. But they've got a great relationship with Beane at least. Which would conceivably help things a bit. I think they'd weigh the possible upside here versus the return, which equates to giving up depth, but no true impact, and be fine with the risk. Especially when the other impact arms are costing way, way more than this.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm liking his Cesar Hernandez guy from the Phillies some. Listed as a 2B/3B/CF, he also played some SS last year. Not sure of his fit here because he took starter reps the past couple seasons, but nice player in that Martin Prado mold.

 

Got that dude on my fantasy team, he was a consistently good hitter all season but much better in the the 2nd half of the season when he flipped a switch and became an on base machine (.412 OBP with 49 BB in 70 G in the 2nd half... 15.7% BB%). I'd be all about acquiring him and seeing if he can be Zobrist 2.0.

[Gilby]

I was thinking of what we'd have to add (probably a lot) to Baez + Soler to get Archer and Daniel Robertson from the Rays. Because Kaplan was saying today he's hearing Dex and the Cubs want to reunite and someone will have to be traded.

 

Then I checked Archer's fangraphs page...I get it's a great pitch, but my elbow started to hurt looking at the slider usage. I mean, come on.