2016 Magic Number Thread

[Ding Dong Johnson]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_N0qDKRsrWVo/TLZcSyvoqbI/AAAAAAAAIvs/qABueNhGHjg/s1600/Topps+2004+Factory+Kelton.jpg

[Cubswin11]

26

[Ding Dong Johnson]

so ready to post the Tuffy Rhodes pic

[Cubswin11]

25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs magic number for home field advantage in the NL is 31.

[Brian707]

Magic #25

 

http://iameviltebow.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/2Pete-Lacock.jpg

[Omar]

http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-pain/files/2011/07/dereklee.jpg

 

Other 25s

 

Kirby Higbe(1939), Jake Mooty(1940-42), Eddie Stanky(1943-44), Stan Hack(1944), Hi Bithorn(1946), Johnny Pramesa(1952), Walker Cooper(1954-55), Jim Hughes(1956), Bob Scheffing (M)(1957-59), Frank Thomas(1960-61), Moe Thacker(1961), Moe Morhardt(1961), Chris Krug(1965-66), Don Bryant(1966), Joe Campbell(1967), Ted Savage(1967-68), Willie Smith(1968-70), Hal Breeden(1971), Bill North(1971-72), Adrian Garrett(1973), Pete LaCock(1973), Jim Marshall (M)(1974-76), Scot Thompson (1978-81), Bobby Bonds(1981), Gary Woods(1982-85), Rafael Palmeiro(1986-88), Marvell Wynne(1989-90), Gary Scott(1991-92), Candy Maldonado (1993), Karl (Tuffy) Rhodes(1993-95), Luis Gonzalez(1995-96), Dave Hansen(1997), Derrick White(1998), Orlando Merced (1998), Don Baylor (M)(2000-02), Troy O'Leary(2003), Derrek Lee(2004-10), Dave Keller ©(2011), Chris Bosio © (2012-16)

 

[Tim]

On FG predictor this morning, we've finally reached 100.0% for the division. Also, we're sitting at 102.0 expected wins, which is cool.

[UMFan83]

Stupid question but since the Cardinals lead for the 2nd WC spot, that means our magic number for clinching the playoffs would be even lower than 25 right? Obviously the real celebration is winning the division but it would also be nice to know when we officially clinch our spot in the postseason for a smaller celebration.

 

Edit: Just figured it out, our magic number for clinching at least a Wild Card spot is 23.

[Banedon]

On FG predictor this morning, we've finally reached 100.0% for the division. Also, we're sitting at 102.0 expected wins, which is cool.

 

I think they only have to be something like 5 games over .500 the rest of the way to get 102 wins.

[UMFan83]

On FG predictor this morning, we've finally reached 100.0% for the division. Also, we're sitting at 102.0 expected wins, which is cool.

 

I think they only have to be something like 5 games over .500 the rest of the way to get 102 wins.

 

Yep, 22-17

 

I really want 100 wins, but beyond that I would love to finish 103-59 or better. 103-59 looks disproportionately more awesome than 102-60

[BigSlick]

I want to win 100+ games and I want to win the division by 20+ games, for ultimate humiliation of our weak division rivals

[squally1313]

On FG predictor this morning, we've finally reached 100.0% for the division. Also, we're sitting at 102.0 expected wins, which is cool.

 

I think they only have to be something like 5 games over .500 the rest of the way to get 102 wins.

 

Yep, 22-17

 

I really want 100 wins, but beyond that I would love to finish 103-59 or better. 103-59 looks disproportionately more awesome than 102-60

 

Agreed, just to completely rise above the whole 'every team wins 60 games and loses 60 games, it's what you do in the other 42 that make all the difference'.

[David]

god if we didn't inexplicably become shitty for about 4 weeks, we'd totally break the wins record (i didn't check the math on this at all but yeah)

[squally1313]

god if we didn't inexplicably become [expletive] for about 4 weeks, we'd totally break the wins record (i didn't check the math on this at all but yeah)

 

Even us playing luck-neutral so far (I get that pythag probably falls apart at the extremes, but still), has us at 87-38 so far this year, for a .696 winning percentage (nice). The pace works out to 113 wins.

 

It's amazing we're currently 16-17 in one run games. I wonder how common it is for a 100+ win team to be under .500 in that situation.

 

Edit: The Cardinals in 2005 were the last 100+ win team (100-62) to be under .500 in one run games (21-25).

[UMFan83]

god if we didn't inexplicably become [expletive] for about 4 weeks, we'd totally break the wins record (i didn't check the math on this at all but yeah)

 

If the Cubs went 10-10 in that stretch instead of 5-15, and they played up to their current pythag (shitty streak still included in RD), we'd be at 90-35 right now, on pace for 117 wins.

 

Of course that's a lot of if's and but's but its fun to discuss anyways.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

It's looking like there is a decent chance that we clinch the division sometime during a 10-game home stand that starts September 15.

https://theathletic.com/17537/2016/08/22/save-the-date-cubs-likely-to-clinch-the-nl-central-at-home/

 

I know it would be cool for all of the season ticket holders and you other guys that live in Chicago that might make it to a clinching game at Wrigley. But I also would love clinching the series before, which is in St. Louis.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's looking like there is a decent chance that we clinch the division sometime during a 10-game home stand that starts September 15.

https://theathletic.com/17537/2016/08/22/save-the-date-cubs-likely-to-clinch-the-nl-central-at-home/

 

I know it would be cool for all of the season ticket holders and you other guys that live in Chicago that might make it to a clinching game at Wrigley. But I also would love clinching the series before, which is in St. Louis.

 

Man, being there when they clinched in 2008 was amazing. If it looks like this one is going to happen at home, I'm ditching work and headed back to Chicago for a couple days.

[Brian]

Sex Fowler

http://www.trbimg.com/img-558dc47f/turbine/chi-bryant-fowler0626-ct0028396841-20150427/650/650x366

 

and

 

[Old Style]

It's looking like there is a decent chance that we clinch the division sometime during a 10-game home stand that starts September 15.

https://theathletic.com/17537/2016/08/22/save-the-date-cubs-likely-to-clinch-the-nl-central-at-home/

 

I know it would be cool for all of the season ticket holders and you other guys that live in Chicago that might make it to a clinching game at Wrigley. But I also would love clinching the series before, which is in St. Louis.

I'm hoping for a 9/9 or 9/10 clinch in Houston.

[Brian]

http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/ryne-sandberg-of-the-chicago-cubs-readies-for-the-pitch-during-a-picture-id53241862?k=6&m=53241862&s=594x594&w=0&h=wPD5-V5VpvjTAu-OBkxPMIFGiXmaMzRddIX8EkdVrAI=

 

 

and just for fun

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/chc/wrigleyfield100/images/100greattimes/moment80.png

[bukie]

Technically, the Cubs have a magic number for each opponent, so here they are down the line:

 

Team          #
----------------
Rangers       29
Nationals     29
Indians       28
Blue Jays     26
Dodgers       26
Red Sox       26
Orioles       25
Giants        24
Tigers        23
Cardinals     23
Mariners      22
Marlins       21
Royals        21
Astros        21
Yankees       21
Pirates       21
Mets          19
White Sox     17
Rockies       15
Phillies      14
Brewers       11
Athletics     10
Reds          10
Rays          10
Angels         9
Padres         8
Diamondbacks   7
Twins          4
Braves         1

[UMFan83]

Technically, the Cubs have a magic number for each opponent, so here they are down the line:

 

Team          #
----------------
Rangers       29
Nationals     29
Indians       28
Blue Jays     26
Dodgers       26
Red Sox       26
Orioles       25
Giants        24
Tigers        23
Cardinals     23
Mariners      22
Marlins       21
Royals        21
Astros        21
Yankees       21
Pirates       21
Mets          19
White Sox     17
Rockies       15
Phillies      14
Brewers       11
Athletics     10
Reds          10
Rays          10
Angels         9
Padres         8
Diamondbacks   7
Twins          4
Braves         1

 

The Braves will be very disappointed to know that after tonight they will have no shot at the best record in baseball.

[Old Style]

Technically, the Cubs have a magic number for each opponent, so here they are down the line:

 

Team          #
----------------
Rangers       29
Nationals     29
Indians       28
Blue Jays     26
Dodgers       26
Red Sox       26
Orioles       25
Giants        24
Tigers        23
Cardinals     23
Mariners      22
Marlins       21
Royals        21
Astros        21
Yankees       21
Pirates       21
Mets          19
White Sox     17
Rockies       15
Phillies      14
Brewers       11
Athletics     10
Reds          10
Rays          10
Angels         9
Padres         8
Diamondbacks   7
Twins          4
Braves         1

A magic number for an American League team is completely worthless because we need the All Star game to mean something.

[David]

Technically, the Cubs have a magic number for each opponent, so here they are down the line:

 

Team          #
----------------
Rangers       29
Nationals     29
Indians       28
Blue Jays     26
Dodgers       26
Red Sox       26
Orioles       25
Giants        24
Tigers        23
Cardinals     23
Mariners      22
Marlins       21
Royals        21
Astros        21
Yankees       21
Pirates       21
Mets          19
White Sox     17
Rockies       15
Phillies      14
Brewers       11
Athletics     10
Reds          10
Rays          10
Angels         9
Padres         8
Diamondbacks   7
Twins          4
Braves         1

A magic number for an American League team is completely worthless because we need the All Star game to mean something.

 

It still would've been worthless before the All Star game "meant" anything.