7/10 - Cubs (Lackey) @ Pirates (Niese) - 12:35 WGN

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

Look at that a 1 2 3 inning!

[Agony and Ivy]

Fixed.

[TruffleShuffle]

The pitching performing way, way worse than their median expectations is not "regression to the mean" and calling it that is gambler's fallacy.

 

So what was pitching way, way better than expected for most of the year? I guess you can say "well this is the true Cub rotation" if you're a glass half full of diarrhea type of guy.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

It's pretty funny how high people got when we had like 5 of the best 20 starters in baseball, but then when the inevitable regression happens - albeit rather annoyingly in a terrible 3 week stretch - people lose their minds. Did you really expect Lester to maintain a sub 2.00 ERA or Hammel to not turn into a post-June pumpkin?

 

OK, clearly there's a pretty big middle ground they could have and should have ended up in instead of basically leaping from godly to terrible. You're really [expletive] the chicken if you're thinking people are wrong to be at all frustrated over it.

this i all correct. but i think what truffle is saying is there is a huge chasm between "frustrated" and "we won't make the playoffs"/"we are terrible"/"how soon until fans wears bags over their heads" rhetoric.

 

Anyone that is a fan is frustrated. it's maturity that comes into play in which you can distance yourself from from frustration to outright craziness. a fleeting comment is understandable. it's the overarching, over-the-top pessimism that is annoying as hell. (not directed at you, just trying to read between his lines and my perceptions)

 

Eh; seemed more like he was really harping on the regression thing like this can all be shrugged off and anyone getting worked up at all was just worrying over nothing, which simply isn't the case.

[David]

The pitching performing way, way worse than their median expectations is not "regression to the mean" and calling it that is gambler's fallacy.

 

So what was pitching way, way better than expected for most of the year? I guess you can say "well this is the true Cub rotation" if you're a glass half full of diarrhea type of guy.

 

Kyle is 100% right and it's not even arguable.

 

It takes every ounce of willpower I have not to point it out every time someone wrongly cites "regression to the mean."

[David]

jesus...heyward absolutely scalded that ball

[Tim]

If they were suddenly seeing results in line with their FIP / xFIP, then that would be regressing to the mean. Nobody expected them to remain a full run better than that forever.

[UMFan83]

Apparently hitting the ball on a line up the middle means guaranteed out for the Cubs

[Tim]

btw - their FIP is still really damn good compared to the rest of baseball.

[Sammy Sofa]

Eat horsefeathers, Mercer.

[David]

albert!!!

 

wtf javy?!

[David]

seriously wtf was that??!

[Sammy Sofa]

Baez, what the horsefeathers.

[UMFan83]

I'm all for ignoring Gary Jones but that wasn't a great decision. I get that Lackey was on deck with 2 outs but he had a higher liklihood of getting a hit or there being a WP than him rounding 3rd when the ball was already in the IF.

[Tim]

okay, all you people that want the Cubs to go for home no matter what....that's what that looks like.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 outs and Lackey due up I get being extra aggressive, but that's a bit far

[soccer10k]

Well done Javy. Would have been nice to not have Lackey leading off next inning.

[Butterscup]

what the horsefeathers javy

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Javy is an interesting player. He brings so much good, but sometimes he sprinkles in some really, really, really bad.

[17 Seconds]

idiot

[Sammy Sofa]

Just because today is the Holy Sacrament of Castro doesn't mean you actually need to make decisions like him.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

Baez had seen enough runners stranded on 3rd that he just went for it. I actually don't mind that at all in that situation even though it wasn't even close.

[David]

is mattress firm some kind of money laundering front?

 

i am not exaggerating when i say there is a 5 block stretch in skokie with about 5 different locations.

[Tim]

I wonder if Javy was assuming the ball went all the way back into the corner instead of hitting where the wall juts out and have it sitting there in shallow rf.

[UMFan83]

PS Almora might have saved his roster spot today when Dex comes back. Bye Szczur