Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-26-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa lost 4-2 Box Score

 

CF A. Almora 2/4, K

LF M. Murton 2/4, 2 RBI

1B D. Vogelbach 2/4, 2B (5), K

2B A. Alcantara 1/4, 2B (4), 2 K

3B L. Watkins 0/3, 2 K

SS M. Kawasaki 0/2, R, 2 BB, K, SB (1), E (1, throw)

SP P. Johnson 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 5-2 GO-FO, 86-55 pitches-strikes

 

Tennessee won 11-2 Box Score

 

CF J. Hannemann 1/6, 2 R, 3B (1), SB (9)

2B C. Young 3/4, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB (10)

3B J. Candelario 2/3, 2 R, 2B (5), HR (2), 6 RBI, 2 BB

C V. Caratini 2/3, R, 2B (4), 2 RBI, 2 BB

RF B. McKinney 0/4, K

LF M. Zagunis 2/5, RBI, K

SP JH Tseng 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP, 1 WP, 1 HR, 9-2 GO-FO, 85-54 pitches-strikes

RP S. Peralta 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 2-1 GO-FO

RP J. Paniagua 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-2 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach lost 7-4 Box Score

 

SS G. Torres 1/5, R

2B I. Happ 1/4, 2 K

3B J. Vosler 0/3, R, BB

RF Je. Baez 1/4, RBI, K, 3 outfield assists (at third base, at second base, at third base)

SP J. Martinez 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 2 HR, 3-5 GO-FO, 84-53 pitches-strikes

RP J. Rosario 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER 1 BB, 3 K

 

South Bend won 7-5 Box Score

 

C PJ Higgins 1/3, R, 2B (5), RBI, 2 BB, K

CF D. Dewees 1/5, R, 3B (6), RBI, K

LF E. Jimenez 2/5, R, 2B (4), RBI, 2 K

RF E. Martinez 1/4, R, 2B (3), BB, K

1B T. Alamo 1/4, R, 2B (2), RBI, 3 K

3B J. Hodges 2/3, RBI, BB, K, CS (1)

SP P. Morrion 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 5-2 GO-FO, 88-50 pitches-strikes

[ctcf]

Heading into today, Happ's K% sits at 22.5% and his BB% is at 18.8% (LOL)

[ctcf]

Smokies are going off today and Candelario seems to be waking up from his slumber. BB, 2B and HR so far today.

[sneakypower]

stray thought: is Torres maybe our 4th-best prospect now?

[Tim]

stray thought: is Torres maybe our 4th-best prospect now?

I'm definitely taking Happ at #1 right now.

[ctcf]

Chesney Young is 2-2 w/ 2 BB today. BA up to .379

[Aaron_Kennelly]

That Tennessee lineup is loaded. And they are all so patient and disciplined. They are the mini-Cubs. Billy McKinney's been the only real disappointment so far.

[Cubswin11]

That Tennessee lineup is loaded. And they are all so patient and disciplined. They are the mini-Cubs. Billy McKinney's been the only real disappointment so far.

I'm giving McKinney the benefit that he's still coming back from that knee injury/surgery and that this early on it is still kind of his spring to get things clicking.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Tim]

stray thought: is Torres maybe our 4th-best prospect now?

Who else are you adding above Torres?

 

Willson was great, but last year was his first standout year in 5 tries at full-season ball so you'll forgive me if i'd like to see a little bit more...proof, that he's a changed man

 

Torres is pretty firmly in the top-25 overall neighborhood; looking at his nearest contemporaries he's a better hitter than Ozzy Albies and has a more well-rounded profile than Rafael Devers, albeit without the power projection ceiling

 

seems like there's a pretty distinct breakdown at the moment

top-25: Torres

top-50: Contreras

top-75: Happ

top-100: McKinney / Almora / Underwood / EJM

If it is Candelario, that's quite a jump for less than a month of results.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would assume Happ, Contreras, Almora in some order.

[Tim]

To balance out the good news from Tennessee today:

 

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR

Pierce Johnson 3.0 3 3 3 3 4 0

[Tim]

I would assume Happ, Contreras, Almora in some order.

Damnit. I've gone from "math is hard" to "counting is hard".

 

Getting old sucks.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm not sure I'm ready to drop Gleyber down. The strikeouts are ugly. He got off to a troubling start in that regard, with 9 in his first 4 games. He seems to have a little better grasp on them since then. But, he's walking a lot and hitting for a little pop. The .238 BABIP is dragging him down quite a bit, too. I'm gonna need to see the K% drop back down to around 20%. But, so far, I think he's handling A+ OK for a 19-year-old.

 

That being said, yeah, it's close on those top 4. Contreras and Gleyber were already really close for me. And Almora and Happ are quickly rising up with their great starts. I'm not sure exactly how I would rank them if I had to right now. I defer back to my pre-season ranks. But, around mid-season, they could all flip-flop pretty easily.

[sneakypower]

stray thought: is Torres maybe our 4th-best prospect now?

Who else are you adding above Torres?

 

Willson was great, but last year was his first standout year in 5 tries at full-season ball so you'll forgive me if i'd like to see a little bit more...proof, that he's a changed man

 

Torres is pretty firmly in the top-25 overall neighborhood; looking at his nearest contemporaries he's a better hitter than Ozzy Albies and has a more well-rounded profile than Rafael Devers, albeit without the power projection ceiling

 

seems like there's a pretty distinct breakdown at the moment

top-25: Torres

top-50: Contreras

top-75: Happ

top-100: McKinney / Almora / Underwood / EJM

If it is Candelario, that's quite a jump for less than a month of results.

i think Gleyber's probably fallen outside the top 50 at the moment; it's always hard to get real excited by low-power/medium-high Ks especially in the relative absence of loud tools & raw projection- he's still young of course but i'd like to see more than .274/.340/.368 career line in full-season ball

 

Happ, Contreras, Almora might all be top 50 or better too at the moment, but it's hard to be certain the order without knowing more what the full reports are on Happ & Willson's D

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Stop if you've heard this before, but Chesny Young is on base again. This time with an RBI single.

[sneakypower]

i found a great user-curated list from a few days ago, that i'm in a lot of agreement with top to bottom:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/23/11495250/non-cromulent-top-200-late-april-edition

 

34. Wilson Contreras, c - 55/B+.

62. Ian Happ, 2b - 55/B+

74. Gleyber Torres, ss - 50/B. A lot of it just an ugly BABIP, but the strikeout rate near 30% worries me enough to bump him down a grade. PREVIOUSLY: 55/B+ (67)

83. Albert Almora, cf - 50/B. The hot start combined with the very high floor make me think Almora is a safe pick as a Role 5 center fielder in the majors. He might belong even higher than this. PREVIOUSLY: 50/B (146)

it includes 2016 draftees so numbers are lower than you'd otherwise expect, especially for the latter three

[toonsterwu]

I'm not ready to move anyone due to the SSS so far (Torres has had bad streaks with strikeouts before, I think there was a stretch last summer where he was striking out more than 1/4th of the time, maybe even close to 30%, although I'm too lazy to check). That said, the one thing to be said is that Torres was always more an accumulation of good skills, rather than a lot of great skills. I know there was some debate on it over the winter, or at least I brought it up, but it's debatable how many plus tools he really has, and how strong those said tools are, if you believe they are plus. Still, the overall balance of tools is very intriguing, and I wonder, without having followed a damn thing so far, if he's intentionally trying to hit for more power, which may impact his overall approach.

 

That said, putting him 3rd is probably fair. I don't think there's a huge gap between Happ and Torres yet, though. I'm no where near close to pushing Almora up - really want to see extended work.

 

As much as I like Pierce Johnson, I think he's better off as a late inning pen arm. He has the potential to be a solid option there, but the command will probably make him no more than an end of the rotation type if he even makes it.

 

I do hope Zagunis can figure it out. There's a lot to like about him overall, but the inconsistency in his swing will hamper his hit tool. If he can iron it out, still think there's a chance for a very solid MLB player there.

 

Anyone know what Tseng's velocity is these days? I just wonder if he is better off being a multi-faceted pen arm.

 

I was mildly disappointed that Pena was moved to the pen, although it made sense. Anyone know if his stuff is playing up?

[Cubswin11]

A couple more standouts from Tennessee today:

 

Caratini is 2/3 with 2 BBs, a double, and RS. He's off to a decent enough start this year. Hannemann started out the day hot with a triple and 2 RS in his first 3 PAs before cooling down without striking out in his last 3 PAs.

What are the scouting reports on Caratini's defense/game calling skills? Because the bat/approach seems like there's at least a pretty solid back up catcher in there.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Little Slide Rooter]

Stop if you've heard this before, but Chesny Young is on base again. This time with an RBI single.

 

I'm still trying to decide whether or not I have time to take him and Rademacher seriously.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Stop if you've heard this before, but Chesny Young is on base again. This time with an RBI single.

 

I'm still trying to decide whether or not I have time to take him and Rademacher seriously.

 

Take Young seriously. Do what you want with Rademacher. But take Young seriously. He can play second -- and probably all over as a utility guy. He has speed. And he's been a great contact guy for awhile now. I mean, don't take him as seriously as Kris Bryant or anything, but take him seriously.

[craig]

After 17 K's, Eddy Martinez drew his first walk today. Jiminez average is up pretty high now.

 

Torres is young, and the season is early, and he's been anti awful for the last ten games or whatever. Still, he's been a high-level K-guy last year as well, this is nothing new or anomalous. And, while saying he's K'd in bunches before is true, it isn't totally encouraging. The concept was that for a teenager, all bad things were forgiven because being so young he's expected to improve. That he's come back and been lots worse 2nd half than first last year, and much worse this April than last summer, is not the improvement trajectory we were looking for. Fortunately, lots of time ahead. Ironic perhaps that BABIP has bitten him. Last year his high batting average was built on BABIP; for a guy with so many K's and so few HR's last year, his BA was flukey high, built on BABIP. Now the BABIP has swung opposite direction.

 

Caratini, for the moment, has OPS up to .801. Nice progress. Hope he can sustain and improve for a while, and slip in a few XBH semi-regularly.

 

Young is a fun freak; How many guys are slugging well over .500, even while >80% of their hits are singles?

[Thrilho]

A big consideration in where to rank Happ is the likelihood he sticks at second. He made his 6th error in 18 games today. Errors aren't the be all end all, but I've never read anything glowing about his defense. So until I start reading some glowing stuff I'm assuming he's a corner outfielder.

 

I'm also reserving judgment a bit until I see how his K rate shakes out. Brett Jackson had a 14% BB / 21% K as a 22 year old at A+. 11% BB / 23.5% K as a 23 year old at AA. I'm definitely not doing cartwheels yet about a 22% K rate out of a 22 year old Happ at A+. And the BB% can be deceiving at that level because he could just be getting pitched around due to the power.

 

Or if Brett Jackson is too strong an example for you, look at Soler. Innocuous 19% K rate in AA, 20.5% in AAA, while sporting very sexy 15% / 13% walk rates at each stop. But clearly he's got some serious contact issues at the majors even though his minor league rates were relatively decent. So basically, K rate is the biggest evaluation factor for me by far, and 4 K games like the one Happ had earlier this year give me the freaking willies. I was/am behind Javy because of his out of this world power and defense, as well as bat speed to help him make contact. If Happ gives me some more of that stuff I'll move him up.

 

Now Almora, there's a guy I'm buying. 10% K so far, matching his 10% K at AA last year. 8.7% walk. Power in the eye of the beholder, but I'm seeing .140+ which is enough. One thing I keep thinking with him is that he doesn't need to develop power to keep walking at the major league level. In this lineup, he could draw the same type of walks that Sczcur has been drawing. Feast on tired pitchers who can't find the zone or foul off balls and wait for the pitcher to not be able to find the zone. That'll be enough.

 

I'm still taking Candelario ahead of Happ too. I see now reason to back off it now. I think he can play third, so already I'm giving him some rope. His K rate was 11% last year at AA and in AZ league, and he's never had a K rate that topped 18%. Maintaining that 12% walk rate from AA again at 15% this year, while K'ing a bit more at 20%, but small sample with the rest of his recent K success. And he illustrated today that he can go off with power. So I'll keep him at 3, ahead of Almora but right now they're pretty much tied.

 

Torres I'll keep at 2, because his slow start isn't really surprising. I don't love him, but with so many publications being so high on him I've got to figure they see some tools in there that keep him above what I think Almora and Candelario will be. But I'd rather keep both those guys and Happ over Torres, since I think the rest are better fits with the org.

 

Still no one close to Contreras.

 

I'll also take this space to say yes on Chesney Young. 5.7% K at A last year, 9.7% at A+, 7.6% at AA so far. 10% walk rates at both stops last year with 17.7% so far this year. OBP of .385 and .394 at his two stops last year and .481 so far this year. The power wasn't there last year obviously, as the ISO was only .065, but has already hit 2 HRs. He's also 6'1", so maybe a .120ish MLB ISO isn't out of reach. Also, last year at MB: 21 games at 2B, 21 games at 3B, 10 games at SS, 11 games in LF, 6 in RF. So again, sticking with "contact is king" I'm putting him right behind Dewees, around 12. A Seal Boy type with high likelihood of making the majors seems pretty worthy of a high spot.

 

Not impressed yet with EJM. Jimenez also striking out more than I want. I may have been over exuberant on those dudes. Still early though.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Geez, Jeffrey Baez had three outfield assists today. He got Andrew Stevenson at third base twice.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

A big consideration in where to rank Happ is the likelihood he sticks at second. He made his 6th error in 18 games today. Errors aren't the be all end all, but I've never read anything glowing about his defense. So until I start reading some glowing stuff I'm assuming he's a corner outfielder.

 

I'm also reserving judgment a bit until I see how his K rate shakes out. Brett Jackson had a 14% BB / 21% K as a 22 year old at A+. 11% BB / 23.5% K as a 23 year old at AA. I'm definitely not doing cartwheels yet about a 22% K rate out of a 22 year old Happ at A+. And the BB% can be deceiving at that level because he could just be getting pitched around due to the power.

 

Or if Brett Jackson is too strong an example for you, look at Soler. Innocuous 19% K rate in AA, 20.5% in AAA, while sporting very sexy 15% / 13% walk rates at each stop. But clearly he's got some serious contact issues at the majors even though his minor league rates were relatively decent. So basically, K rate is the biggest evaluation factor for me by far, and 4 K games like the one Happ had earlier this year give me the freaking willies. I was/am behind Javy because of his out of this world power and defense, as well as bat speed to help him make contact. If Happ gives me some more of that stuff I'll move him up.

 

Now Almora, there's a guy I'm buying. 10% K so far, matching his 10% K at AA last year. 8.7% walk. Power in the eye of the beholder, but I'm seeing .140+ which is enough. One thing I keep thinking with him is that he doesn't need to develop power to keep walking at the major league level. In this lineup, he could draw the same type of walks that Sczcur has been drawing. Feast on tired pitchers who can't find the zone or foul off balls and wait for the pitcher to not be able to find the zone. That'll be enough.

 

I'm still taking Candelario ahead of Happ too. I see now reason to back off it now. I think he can play third, so already I'm giving him some rope. His K rate was 11% last year at AA and in AZ league, and he's never had a K rate that topped 18%. Maintaining that 12% walk rate from AA again at 15% this year, while K'ing a bit more at 20%, but small sample with the rest of his recent K success. And he illustrated today that he can go off with power. So I'll keep him at 3, ahead of Almora but right now they're pretty much tied.

 

Torres I'll keep at 2, because his slow start isn't really surprising. I don't love him, but with so many publications being so high on him I've got to figure they see some tools in there that keep him above what I think Almora and Candelario will be. But I'd rather keep both those guys and Happ over Torres, since I think the rest are better fits with the org.

 

Still no one close to Contreras.

 

I'll also take this space to say yes on Chesney Young. 5.7% K at A last year, 9.7% at A+, 7.6% at AA so far. 10% walk rates at both stops last year with 17.7% so far this year. OBP of .385 and .394 at his two stops last year and .481 so far this year. The power wasn't there last year obviously, as the ISO was only .065, but has already hit 2 HRs. He's also 6'1", so maybe a .120ish MLB ISO isn't out of reach. Also, last year at MB: 21 games at 2B, 21 games at 3B, 10 games at SS, 11 games in LF, 6 in RF. So again, sticking with "contact is king" I'm putting him right behind Dewees, around 12. A Seal Boy type with high likelihood of making the majors seems pretty worthy of a high spot.

 

Not impressed yet with EJM. Jimenez also striking out more than I want. I may have been over exuberant on those dudes. Still early though.

 

 

Great post. I agree with you on just about everything. Post more often!

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Geez, Jeffrey Baez had three outfield assists today. He got Andrew Stevenson at third base twice.

 

I saw that and forgot to post about it. I knew he had a decent arm and that he's piled up some outfield assists in the past. But maybe I've been sleeping on his arm? I don't remember any glowing reports about it. But he now has 31 outfield assists in 169 games in RF since 2014.