Cubs 2016 #16 Prospect

[CubsWin]

#1: Gleyber Torres

#2: Willson Contreras

#3: Albert Almora

#4: Ian Happ

#5: Billy McKinney

#6: Eloy Jimenez

#7: Dylan Cease

#8: Jeimer Candelario

#9: Duane Underwood

#10: Carl Edwards Jr.

#11: Eddy Julio Martinez

#12: Oscar De La Cruz

#13: Pierce Johnson

#14: Victor Caratini

#15: Mark Zagunis

[CubsWin]

This is where it gets interesting. After Zagunis (who won the previous round with 9 votes), there were 5 guys tied with 4 votes and 2 more tied with 3. As usual, you can vote for up to 2 players and are allowed to change your vote.

[craig]

What have you done lately, baby! Dewees and Hudson.

 

Dewees is a center fielder' can really run; has only 2 K's in 28 AB; gets two hits a day; is slugging .821; has a solid walk rate and more walks than K's; has 6 XBS in 7 games; and is doing all of that in cold Midwest April when hitting is usually really hard. Being just a flat-out good hitter is the hardest and rarest of all baseball tools, and it appears he may have that rare tool. Doing that while being a good runner with good command of the strike zone, and being able to play center, even if probably at an unexceptional level, seems pretty valuable. I know, it's small sample. But true-blue hitters are hard to find.

 

The smart and scouting-thorough Cubs used a high 2nd pick and substantially superslotted him ($1.7M at $1.29 slot, basically paying late-first-round money). He is basically doing and being exactly, plus more, than what the Cubs hoped/envisioned for him when they spent that much to get him. Everybody figured the Cubs would pick pitching in 2nd round and after. That they both took Dewees and superslotted (at the expense of saving for pitching $$ later) suggests they really scouted Dewees as a strong-and-obvious best-player-available, too-good-to-pass. If they scouted him that well before, and he's playing this well now, seems kind of easy to slip him into our top 16.

 

Hudson is already as fast as Steele and faster than any other lefties (Sands, Kellogg, Twomey.) At 18 he's got way more velocity-improvement projection than the 21- and 22-year old lefties like Sands or Kellogg. He's already got a better curve than any of them. Seems fairly easy for me to put the high-ceiling kid with already superior stuff, and the chance to end up much, much, much superior, ahead of the others.

[CubsWin]

Hudson is already as fast as Steele and faster than any other lefties (Sands, Kellogg, Twomey.) At 18 he's got way more velocity-improvement projection than the 21- and 22-year old lefties like Sands or Kellogg. He's already got a better curve than any of them. Seems fairly easy for me to put the high-ceiling kid with already superior stuff, and the chance to end up much, much, much superior, ahead of the others.

Not to mention that's 6'8" and fairly thin. Not only does that give him plenty of room to fill out and gain velocity but when pitchers are that tall, it can often take them more time than others to coordinate their delivery. Apparently, Hudson isn't experiencing that delay which speaks to his athleticism.

 

So, he'll likely add velo, will have great downward plane on his pitches creating more balls hit on the ground and is progressing faster than expected speaking to advanced athleticism. I have him as the highest ceiling prospect left on the board and he hasn't done anything so far to suggest he's struggling to reach it.

[Tim]

Total aside...

 

It always cracks me up when people talk about taller pitchers having "great downward plane". Let's say you're comparing a 6'8" guy to a 6'2" guy. Six inches makes a big difference, right? Well, you're talking about a guy standing 60' 6" away. So that 6" difference in height creates an additional slope of 1/121.

[jersey cubs fan]

Total aside...

 

It always cracks me up when people talk about taller pitchers having "great downward plane". Let's say you're comparing a 6'8" guy to a 6'2" guy. Six inches makes a big difference, right? Well, you're talking about a guy standing 60' 6" away. So that 6" difference in height creates an additional slope of 1/121.

what about wing span?

[Tim]

What have you done lately, baby! Dewees and Hudson.

 

Dewees is a center fielder' can really run; has only 2 K's in 28 AB; gets two hits a day; is slugging .821; has a solid walk rate and more walks than K's; has 6 XBS in 7 games; and is doing all of that in cold Midwest April when hitting is usually really hard. Being just a flat-out good hitter is the hardest and rarest of all baseball tools, and it appears he may have that rare tool. Doing that while being a good runner with good command of the strike zone, and being able to play center, even if probably at an unexceptional level, seems pretty valuable. I know, it's small sample. But true-blue hitters are hard to find.

 

The smart and scouting-thorough Cubs used a high 2nd pick and substantially superslotted him ($1.7M at $1.29 slot, basically paying late-first-round money). He is basically doing and being exactly, plus more, than what the Cubs hoped/envisioned for him when they spent that much to get him. Everybody figured the Cubs would pick pitching in 2nd round and after. That they both took Dewees and superslotted (at the expense of saving for pitching $$ later) suggests they really scouted Dewees as a strong-and-obvious best-player-available, too-good-to-pass. If they scouted him that well before, and he's playing this well now, seems kind of easy to slip him into our top 16.

 

Hudson is already as fast as Steele and faster than any other lefties (Sands, Kellogg, Twomey.) At 18 he's got way more velocity-improvement projection than the 21- and 22-year old lefties like Sands or Kellogg. He's already got a better curve than any of them. Seems fairly easy for me to put the high-ceiling kid with already superior stuff, and the chance to end up much, much, much superior, ahead of the others.

I voted the same for very similar reasons.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hudson is already as fast as Steele and faster than any other lefties (Sands, Kellogg, Twomey.) At 18 he's got way more velocity-improvement projection than the 21- and 22-year old lefties like Sands or Kellogg. He's already got a better curve than any of them. Seems fairly easy for me to put the high-ceiling kid with already superior stuff, and the chance to end up much, much, much superior, ahead of the others.

Not to mention that's 6'8" and fairly thin. Not only does that give him plenty of room to fill out and gain velocity but when pitchers are that tall, it can often take them more time than others to coordinate their delivery. Apparently, Hudson isn't experiencing that delay which speaks to his athleticism.

 

So, he'll likely add velo, will have great downward plane on his pitches creating more balls hit on the ground and is progressing faster than expected speaking to advanced athleticism. I have him as the highest ceiling prospect left on the board and he hasn't done anything so far to suggest he's struggling to reach it.

 

Growth plates!!!

[CubsWin]

Total aside...

 

It always cracks me up when people talk about taller pitchers having "great downward plane". Let's say you're comparing a 6'8" guy to a 6'2" guy. Six inches makes a big difference, right? Well, you're talking about a guy standing 60' 6" away. So that 6" difference in height creates an additional slope of 1/121.

I get your point, and you're right, when it comes to a pitcher's height, the difference is very small. But it's also where a given pitcher releases the ball. Height makes a difference (and arm length I guess too), but arm slot probably matters as much if not more. Also, a taller pitcher's stride can be longer and allow him to release closer to the plate. I've read reports that Hudson's arm slot takes advantage of his height. I've haven't heard anything about his stride or exact distance from which he releases but it stands to reason.

 

As far as that difference being slight, in a game where fractions of inches and angles make all the difference, every little bit helps. A few millimeters is the difference between a line drive or a ground ball. The same for a fly ball or a home run. The difference in how long it takes a 92 mph fastball or a 96 mph fastball to reach home plate is infinitesimal. But I'd still rather have the added velocity assuming the pitch is hitting the same spot.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'd suggest adding Rashad Crawford to future polls.

[CubsWin]

I'd suggest adding Rashad Crawford to future polls.

Indeed. He's lighting it up and has the athleticism to have a decent ceiling.