2016 Trade Deadline

[Tim]

I do not want either Baez in the lineup everyday or Bryant permanently moved off 3B.

I'm very hopeful on the steps that Baez is making. And he's just so damn fun to watch.

 

That said, I'm sure Joe will take great pleasure in rotating everyone through different positions based upon matchups and the desire to keep everyone fresh and focused.

[Cubswin11]

I do not want either Baez in the lineup everyday or Bryant permanently moved off 3B.

That would seem sub optimal to move Bryant off 3B for good

[Thrilho]

Easy money taking Russell over Baez for best individual season, probably. Baez seems like a max 4-5 win player due to his signfiicant flaws, and I might be generous including the 5.

 

Baez has 1.3 fWAR in 193 PAs. That's pacing for 4.0 fWAR in a 600 PA season. You can say he's been sheltered from bad matchups, but he's still only 23 and has 502 MLB PAs. He's achieving this success while at the same time trying make major changes to his swing and approach and also playing 3 positions.

 

Maybe he never gets those 600 PAs to get to stratosphere of 4+ fWAR, but if he does I wouldn't put his ceiling at an outside shot at 5. Personally, if we're taking single seasons I'm putting my money on Baez. Most of his purely physical tools seem better; power, bat speed, arm, speed on the bases. Russell does seem to have the better and more consistent approach, a better eye, is a steadier defender, has plenty of power, and although it won't show up in his WAR numbers he seems to be able to hit pretty well in high leverage situations. (yes, I believe in clutch and will write about it a different time)

 

Both have shown the ability to make big adjustments, with Russell upping his walk rate to 12% after the 2-4% it dropped to in AA/AAA and Javy cutting his K rate in half from where it was in 2014. But to me, when you look at the adjustment periods Javy has had at every level followed by him exploding to a new offensive mark each time, and couple that with the remarkable swing changes he's made so far, I'd put his ceiling pretty high.

 

Right now, with his K rate sitting just over league average, his biggest thing to solve is to start drawing walks. And walks often come directly from pitchers fearing a hitter's power. So keep hitting with power, and my guess is that the walks start coming at a league average rate as well.

 

I like Russell as the steady hand at short and Baez as the dare devil at 3B/2B/backup SS, and maybe it shakes out that Baez consistently gets less PAs because of that. But even so, I'll put 5 internet bucks against the easy money and take Baez for top individual season during their rookie contracts.

[Thrilho]

Long story short on that, Baez has lots of power. Defensively, he's about equivalent to Russell. And with the adjustments Baez has made so far I think he fills in the rest of his hitting game enough that his 30+ HR power tips the scales.

[sneakypower]

Defensively, he's about equivalent to Russell.

agree to disagree

[Thrilho]

Defensively, he's about equivalent to Russell.

agree to disagree

 

Fair enough. Russell was a 2.9 fWAR player last year with a 90 wRC+. But Javy has been playing 3 positions this season plus center field much of the offseason. Same thing his last couple years in the minors. It's always going to be a tough comparison between the two when Javy only plays short once every two weeks. He's probably not going to look as sharp or consistent there. And if he's not putting up the amazing defense at third and second it's going to be hard to put up defensive numbers equivalent to Russell, who could easily be a gold glove winning shortstop.

 

So yeah I'd say Russell is the better defender, but I also think that a perfect comparison could really only be made in an alternate universe where Javy gets to play short stop every day or Russell has to do Javy's super sub thing.

[Thrilho]

So yeah I'd say Russell is the better defender, but I also think that a perfect comparison could really only be made in an alternate universe where Javy gets to play short stop every day or Russell has to do Javy's super sub thing.

 

That the perfect scenario does not exist and is no longer possible is a pretty solid hint that he's not in Russell's league as a defensive talent. It's not as if Russell was designated the SS and Baez was always the super sub, they fell into those roles on merit.

 

Without my alternate universe where Javy plays short stop consistently it's tough to refute the fact that Russell is a better short stop. I think he is, but we don't know what Javy would look like as an every day short stop. We don't know what their advanced defensive metrics were in the minors.

 

What we do know is that Javy got ravaged as a hitter in 2014, and the Cubs wanted to get him MiLB PAs in 2015 to get him right. Then he got injured for half a season. Russell didn't have those contact issues, and he was brought up to play second. He was a pretty good short stop, but as circumstance had it there was another guy there already, so he played second. Russell then moved over and played gold glove caliber short.

 

Then Javy's bat was ready. Russell is 100% entrenched at short at that point. Even if they thought Javy could be a better SS, which I doubt, why move Russell off then maybe have to move him back on later? Also, who knows how Russell is at third? Javy is a magician. The smart play, even if they thought Javy could be a better SS, is to keep a guy who's already GG caliber there.

 

But so far this year, Russell's UZR/150 has dropped to 6.2 from 20.4 in 2015. That would give me pause in saying he's a slam dunk out of this world next league up from Javy defender. I could quote Javy's stat's from his various positions, but I don't know the sample sizes everything evens out at. For instance, he's at 36.2 this year at SS, 22.8 at second, but only -3.1 at third. He's seemed awesome at third so far, so I'm at a loss to explain those numbers. Still, Russell's numbers have plenty of sample behind them and he's had a big drop off from last year. So I'll wait and see how things shake out, but the eye test says Javy is at least in Russell's league.

[Gmoney08]

Russell may be the more consistent defender but i dont think it was defenitely decided soley by defensive merit.

 

I think progression of their bats won him the SS job. Had Javy hit the ground running in 2014 and not dealt with injuries, sisters death and needing minor league ABs I could easily see Baez at SS now and Russell at 2b or 3b.

[Thrilho]

- We don't have to know for sure to make a really good guess, and a really good guess is that Baez's defense at SS is not equal to Russell's. Perfect information is extremely, extremely rare, even harder to actually identify in the moment, and nothing of what does exist suggests they're even remotely equal. Baez has graded out positively once by UZR at SS in the majors, and in his largest sample he was a slightly negative defender. Overall over the three years he's been average to even slightly below at the position. Russell's an easy plus at the position spanning ~1100 ML innings.

 

- Baez's bat isn't ready even today, not for a full time role anyway.

 

The perfect information you'd be looking for on Baez's bat is an every day role where he has to face every pitcher. We don't have that, same as we don't have the data on what Baez would do in a full time short stop role. We have 385 innings at short, 255 of which came two years ago when Baez was 21.

 

So you're willing to use those to support your argument that he's not as good a defender, then for your argument against his bat you're using an assumption on how a bunch of at bats that he didn't take would have gone. He's hitting .269/.311/.456. I'm just not sure how you're so positive on all these things when, again, perfect information does not yet exist. I'm making guesses about the future and claiming no certainty.

 

But another way to look at the defensive metrics is that so far this year Javy has a DEF (the defensive component of fWAR) of 2.7 in 193 PAs worth of play vs Russell's 6.2 in 291. Scale them both up to 600 PAs and you have 8.4 for Javy and 12.8 for Russell. Russell has obviously better, but he's also got a bump in there for positional value, so maybe not a perfect comparison. And, as always, the ability to bounce between 3 positions and the negative impact it has on defensive development is not rolled into those numbers.

 

So I'll continue to say it's a gray area where Russell is better, but I'm not sure by how much, and my opinion is it's closer than you make it out to be.

[Thrilho]

Also, WAR doesn't care whether you put the defensive numbers up at SS or bouncing between 3B/2B/SS. So the question of whether he's as good as Russell at short is kind of moot. My point was that Baez's overall peak value would exceed Russell's. If Baez ends up at 8 DEF and Russell at 12, to me that's close enough for Baez to beat Russell with the bat. So far that's what's happening this year when you just look at the rate numbers, with Baez pacing for 4.0 fWAR in 600 PAs vs Russell's 3.1.

[Gmoney08]

Without my alternate universe where Javy plays short stop consistently it's tough to refute the fact that Russell is a better short stop. I think he is, but we don't know what Javy would look like as an every day short stop. We don't know what their advanced defensive metrics were in the minors.

 

What we do know is that Javy got ravaged as a hitter in 2014, and the Cubs wanted to get him MiLB PAs in 2015 to get him right. Then he got injured for half a season. Russell didn't have those contact issues, and he was brought up to play second. He was a pretty good short stop, but as circumstance had it there was another guy there already, so he played second. Russell then moved over and played gold glove caliber short.

 

Then Javy's bat was ready. Russell is 100% entrenched at short at that point. Even if they thought Javy could be a better SS, which I doubt, why move Russell off then maybe have to move him back on later? Also, who knows how Russell is at third? Javy is a magician. The smart play, even if they thought Javy could be a better SS, is to keep a guy who's already GG caliber there.

 

But so far this year, Russell's UZR/150 has dropped to 6.2 from 20.4 in 2015. That would give me pause in saying he's a slam dunk out of this world next league up from Javy defender. I could quote Javy's stat's from his various positions, but I don't know the sample sizes everything evens out at. For instance, he's at 36.2 this year at SS, 22.8 at second, but only -3.1 at third. He's seemed awesome at third so far, so I'm at a loss to explain those numbers. Still, Russell's numbers have plenty of sample behind them and he's had a big drop off from last year. So I'll wait and see how things shake out, but the eye test says Javy is at least in Russell's league.

 

Three things:

 

- We don't have to know for sure to make a really good guess, and a really good guess is that Baez's defense at SS is not equal to Russell's. Perfect information is extremely, extremely rare, even harder to actually identify in the moment, and nothing of what does exist suggests they're even remotely equal. Baez has graded out positively once by UZR at SS in the majors, and in his largest sample he was a slightly negative defender. Overall over the three years he's been average to even slightly below at the position. Russell's an easy plus at the position spanning ~1100 ML innings.

 

- Baez's bat isn't ready even today, not for a full time role anyway.

 

- Eyes can be decieving and even then I would have to agree to disagree there. Russell's the better, smoother defender by my eye and definitely has the advantage on paper.

 

 

Baez bat isnt ready for what? He may not be a star but he is already plenty useful as an MLB starter with the bat.

[Thrilho]

So you're willing to use those to support your argument that he's not as good a defender, then for your argument against his bat you're using an assumption on how a bunch of at bats that he didn't take would have gone.

 

I'm just going to agree to disagree on the defense. To me it's obvious even without the most perfectest info, but if the "we can't know with absolute 100% certainty" card is going to keep getting dropped then it's best to just move on.

 

On the actual quoted part - please clarify. I don't understand what point you are making here. What did I say about PAs he didn't take? Should the assumption be that he would be a good hitter in imaginary PAs? Didn't you yourself mention/suggest that he's getting overall softer matchups as someone who does not start every day this year?

 

On defense: fair enough. On the part about making assessments based on PAs that didn't happen I'm referring to this:

 

You can say he's been sheltered from bad matchups

 

That is basically what it boils down to offensively. That and I don't buy he's as good a defender as Russell - a guy who has racked up nearly 1800 innings of superlative defense in the MIF under a starter's workload the past two seasons to maybe 1100 for Baez spread over 3 seasons on a part time basis.

 

Baez's bat isn't ready even today, not for a full time role anyway.

 

You say "that's what it boils down to offensively" referring to me saying he's been sheltered from bad matchups. Then you say that he's not ready with the bat to be a full time player. I can only guess, since you didn't provide any other reasoning, that you think he's not a full time player because he'd struggle a lot more if he was forced to hit against everyone.

 

I'm saying that what it boils down to for me is the .269/.311/.456. If you're saying that he's not a full time player based on those results then you're making an assessment based on PAs that have happened. If you're saying he would have struggled a lot more if he had a full time role then to me you're making an assessment based on PAs that never happened.

[Thrilho]

Btw, to the mods, I didn't mean to completely derail this discussion on the trade deadline. This was just where the Baez vs Russell discussion was happening already.

[Thrilho]

You say "that's what it boils down to offensively" referring to me saying he's been sheltered from bad matchups. Then you say that he's not ready with the bat to be a full time player. I can only guess, since you didn't provide any other reasoning, that you think he's not a full time player because he'd struggle a lot more if he was forced to hit against everyone.

 

I'm saying that what it boils down to for me is the .269/.311/.456. If you're saying that he's not a full time player based on those results then you're making an assessment based on PAs that have happened. If you're saying he would have struggled a lot more if he had a full time role then to me you're making an assessment based on PAs that never happened.

 

I still don't understand your point. Is the suggestion here the assumption should be that he would be the same or better given a larger role and signficiantly more responsibility? Why? Why should I ignore the other 309 PAS when I didn't ignore his previous 300 innings at SS when deciding he isn't on Russell's level as a defender?

 

Ok, it wasn't clear to me that your assessment that his current inability to hit full time was based largely on the 309 PAs he took in 2014-2015 (of which most were in 2014). That works, I think this is another situation where I lean towards weighting what a player has done this season, in the last month, etc rather what they did at SS and at the plate in 2014.

 

For me, I don't know how he would have fared so far in the PAs he didn't take, but I see excellent trends in peripherals and performance that tell me that he could take on a full time role and do fine.

[Thrilho]

And with that I'm going to have to drop the mic. Have to run to some plans. Feel free to respond and I'll get back atcha sometime (much to the chagrin of the people who want interesting trade deadline talk I'm sure)

[Guancous]

Having both players is a great situation that makes 29 other teams envious.

 

So... how about a lefty reliever?

[raw]

Having both players is a great situation that makes 29 other teams envious.

 

So... how about a lefty reliever?

 

I still wouldn't be overly surprised if all this LH reliever hype goes by the wayside and they aim higher - namely a SP.

 

It won't go by at all. The Miller/Chapman/Doolittle extraordinary LH reliever hype might, but they'll get someone in here. I still think the Cubs have to get in on Teheran/Rich Hill talks. Teheran is such a good fit and Atlanta is a team that would be very happy with a Soler and minor leaguers package for him. Hill is a rental, but I really love what he could add to this team. I think he could easily be the 3rd or 4th starter for a playoff team, or he could be a late inning LH reliever if necessary. I don't have much faith in Hammel to be there by October, and I agree that a starter could prove to be an even bigger need eventually.

[davell]

Hill is definitely a guy to look into. horsefeathers Teheran. One, he'll come back to earth. Two, they want more than what they got for Miller and truly have no reason to deal him, if they don't get it. And I liked the idea of getting him last deadline. Way too high of a price now though.

[raw]

Hill is definitely a guy to look into. [expletive] Teheran. One, he'll come back to earth. Two, they want more than what they got for Miller and truly have no reason to deal him, if they don't get it. And I liked the idea of getting him last deadline. Way too high of a price now though.

 

Back to Earth? He's 25 and 2015 is looking like the outlier in his career. I guess the reason to deal him would be his salary doubling next year before he becomes arbitration eligible. They didn't really have much incentive to trade Miller, and while they did get a nice haul for him I probably wouldn't hate giving up Soler, Happ, and a pitching prospect not named Cease for him and either a reliever (Vizcaino) or minor league arm.

[davell]

Hill is definitely a guy to look into. [expletive] Teheran. One, he'll come back to earth. Two, they want more than what they got for Miller and truly have no reason to deal him, if they don't get it. And I liked the idea of getting him last deadline. Way too high of a price now though.

 

Back to Earth? He's 25 and 2015 is looking like the outlier in his career. I guess the reason to deal him would be his salary doubling next year before he becomes arbitration eligible. They didn't really have much incentive to trade Miller, and while they did get a nice haul for him I probably wouldn't hate giving up Soler, Happ, and a pitching prospect not named Cease for him and either a reliever (Vizcaino) or minor league arm.

 

He's a 3ish WAR starter. By backing up, id suspect his year end ERA to be more inline with his FIP than it currently is .Hes not becoming arb eligible, hes under contract. Which is fine. I'm not against adding that caliber of arm. But considering their asking price is likely higher than what you're proposing(just for him, not even accounting for Vizcaino)......I'll pass.

[Tryptamine]

He's a 3ish WAR starter. By backing up, id suspect his year end ERA to be more inline with his FIP than it currently is .Hes not becoming arb eligible, hes under contract. Which is fine. I'm not against adding that caliber of arm. But considering their asking price is likely higher than what you're proposing(just for him, not even accounting for Vizcaino)......I'll pass.

 

Actually he's a 4 WAR pitcher by RA9WAR and rWAR, and is almost at that already this year. As a pitcher who has beat his FIP his whole career spanning -750 innings and 3+ seasons, I am inclined to go with either of those over a FIP based WAR like fWAR. These trades tend to come with another piece, the teams trading for the ML rarely get just that guy, and I suspect that will be the case here too even if it is not Vizcaino.

 

While he does beat his FIP it's usually by .4 or .5. I"m not about to believe in a guy whose current babip is .040 lower than any other he's ever had in his career and whose strand rate is also the highest of his career. When the numbers start evening out I suspect he's a 3.2-3.5ERA pitcher which is nice, but I suspect they want value like he's a young top of the rotation pitcher and he just isn't.

[raw]

He's a 3ish WAR starter. By backing up, id suspect his year end ERA to be more inline with his FIP than it currently is .Hes not becoming arb eligible, hes under contract. Which is fine. I'm not against adding that caliber of arm. But considering their asking price is likely higher than what you're proposing(just for him, not even accounting for Vizcaino)......I'll pass.

 

Actually he's a 4 WAR pitcher by RA9WAR and rWAR, and is almost at that already this year. As a pitcher who has beat his FIP his whole career spanning -750 innings and 3+ seasons, I am inclined to go with either of those over a FIP based WAR like fWAR. These trades tend to come with another piece, the teams trading for the ML rarely get just that guy, and I suspect that will be the case here too even if it is not Vizcaino.

 

While he does beat his FIP it's usually by .4 or .5. I"m not about to believe in a guy whose current babip is .040 lower than any other he's ever had in his career and whose strand rate is also the highest of his career. When the numbers start evening out I suspect he's a 3.2-3.5ERA pitcher which is nice, but I suspect they want value like he's a young top of the rotation pitcher and he just isn't.

 

Yeah, like Tom said....why is this a bad thing? Outperforming his FIP is an actual skill when he's done it in every year of his career, it's not a luck thing. I also don't know how you can say he's a 3.2-3.5 ERA pitcher when he's only been at the exact bottom of that range in his 1st year of the 3 of 4 strong years of his career. He's 25 and a top 25 pitcher in baseball. I like him because he's under contract (mistakenly said arb eligible after next year), he's a top 25 SP, who's young, and durable and could conceivably get a little better with Bosio. Would be a good guy to have in place when Lackey is a FA/retires and insurance in case they can't/won't pay Arrieta in a couple years. While I'd rather give up the type of package it would take to get Fernandez or Carrasco or Gray, I don't know that any of those guys will come available.

[Tryptamine]

 

Actually he's a 4 WAR pitcher by RA9WAR and rWAR, and is almost at that already this year. As a pitcher who has beat his FIP his whole career spanning -750 innings and 3+ seasons, I am inclined to go with either of those over a FIP based WAR like fWAR. These trades tend to come with another piece, the teams trading for the ML rarely get just that guy, and I suspect that will be the case here too even if it is not Vizcaino.

 

While he does beat his FIP it's usually by .4 or .5. I"m not about to believe in a guy whose current babip is .040 lower than any other he's ever had in his career and whose strand rate is also the highest of his career. When the numbers start evening out I suspect he's a 3.2-3.5ERA pitcher which is nice, but I suspect they want value like he's a young top of the rotation pitcher and he just isn't.

 

Yeah, like Tom said....why is this a bad thing? Outperforming his FIP is an actual skill when he's done it in every year of his career, it's not a luck thing. I also don't know how you can say he's a 3.2-3.5 ERA pitcher when he's only been at the exact bottom of that range in his 1st year of the 3 of 4 strong years of his career. He's 25 and a top 25 pitcher in baseball. I like him because he's under contract (mistakenly said arb eligible after next year), he's a top 25 SP, who's young, and durable and could conceivably get a little better with Bosio. Would be a good guy to have in place when Lackey is a FA/retires and insurance in case they can't/won't pay Arrieta in a couple years. While I'd rather give up the type of package it would take to get Fernandez or Carrasco or Gray, I don't know that any of those guys will come available.

 

I never meant to imply that outperforming FIP is a luck thing, especially when given years of the same results. All I'm saying is that at some point I don't buy it being totally legit either. When a guy is sporting a babip that much lower than any other babip in his career and while his LD% is down, he's giving up more hard hit balls this year.

[davell]

Who puts emphasis on a half years worth of numbers? The horsefeathering Braves, that's who. Again, I don't dislike Teheran. But he's not a guy I'd give up what amounts to more than a Shelby Miller package for. And thank God, neither will the FO.

 

By the way, am I imagining things or didn't Gato dislike Teheran just last year?

[raw]

Who puts emphasis on a half years worth of numbers? The [expletive] Braves, that's who. Again, I don't dislike Teheran. But he's not a guy I'd give up what amounts to more than a Shelby Miller package for. And thank God, neither will the FO.

 

By the way, am I imagining things or didn't Gato dislike Teheran just last year?

 

Well, Teheran wasn't very good last year. And that's why I threw out a Soler, Happ, pitching prospect idea. That's about equal to what the Braves got for Miller. Granted, Soler is probably a lesser value than Inciarte and Happ lesser than Dansby Swanson (position value), but Inciarte has really struggled this year and his bat has suffered leaving Chase Field. Granted Inciarte plays wonderful defense, but Soler would be very valuable RH power that they don't have. Swanson and Happ both destroyed the Carolina league and Happ is still hitting very well at AA, don't think those 2 are that far off. Cubs don't really have an Aaron Blair, unless Underwood can be fixed. But it's not an astronomical package that the Cubs can't reasonably meet due to the sheer amount of talent on the roste.r