Runoff Cubs 2016 #8 Prospect

[Cubswin11]

Jeimer or Duane

[CubsWin]

2016 Rankings:

 

Sickels - Underwood 5th, Candelario 12th

Callis (MLB) - Underwood 4th, Candelario 7th

Manuel (BA) - Underwood 4th, Candelario 10th

Farnsworth (Fangraphs) Underwood 3rd, Candelario 10th

Crawford (BP) Underwood 8th, Candelario not in his top 15.

 

Sickels and Callis follow the Cubs prospects pretty closely and the others might just be group thinking their rankings.

 

As I see it, his main drawback right now is his inconsistency and a K% that took a hit last season (a season in which he sustained a shoulder injury) but was at 20.3% the year before. That's not bad for a raw-ish 19-year-old (he turned 20 in late July) in Low-A.

 

He's got the stuff, but it's plus to plus-plus one inning and then it's not. That tells me he's got a high ceiling but is struggling to reproduce the outcome on a pitch-by-pitch basis. He's been playing above his level his entire career (he's 21 going into AA). He held batters in Low-A to a BAA of .230 and in High-A to .200. He's improved his BB%, H/9, WHIP and FIP (which aren't that great mostly due to his middling K%)) every season since rookie ball. He was raw when they drafted him and has improved every year but hasn't put it all together consistently yet.

 

I have no problem putting Candelario at #8. I like him, but if we're going to go ceiling-heavy with guys like Cease and Jimenez, then why not Underwood?

[craig]

Easy Underwood for me, on this tie-breaker.

 

1. Outside evaluation consensus: As Cubswin just noted, outside sources almost invariably rank Underwood ahead. Maybe for some informed reasons? Just following the crowd isn't necessarily correct; but sometimes the outside crowd actually does have some objective sense?

 

2. Inside evaluation consensus: McLeod and the Cubs scouts do their own ranking. Both this offseason and last, they valued Underwood ahead of Candelario. Maybe for a reason?

 

3. Age: Underwood is a year younger.

 

4. Ceiling: Underwood scores higher.

 

5. Pitchers jump: Pitchers have greater opportunity to "jump" than hitters. You throw the ball yourself, you're the initiator. As the initiator who determines each pitch, it's way easier for a pitcher to "figure something out" and make a performance jump, than for a hitter.

 

6. Scouting and inconsistency: Scouts, including McLeod himself, see Underwood at times having a plus heavy fastball, a plus curve, and a plus change. Again, a very young pitcher has a greater opportunity to improve consistency.

 

7. BB-progress: 6.2 - 4.5 - 3.2 - 2.8 BB/9. Underwood has been on a steady pathway of control improvement. For a guy who is scouted as having very good stuff, and who'll play his AA season at age 21, that seems pretty good progress. Good stuff and low walks, that seems good.

 

8. Fastball/groundball/K/BB puzzle: Underwood's faults of course are the HR's and the low K's. Interestingly, his GO/AO ratio is pretty good, 1.42 on his career. That seems to match the scouting, that his fastball is a pretty heavy ground ball pitch. That also seems to match the scouting, that he's thrown a lot of fastballs thus the modest K-rates. Breaking balls and change ups can improve with practice; if they do, K's can go up and HR's can drop.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pretty easily Jeimer for me.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pretty easily Jeimer for me.

[David]

Pretty easily Jeimer for me.

 

Same.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Pretty easily Jeimer for me.

 

Same.

Ditto. Mostly because he's not a pitcher.

[jumbo]

Easy Underwood for me, on this tie-breaker.

 

1. Outside evaluation consensus: As Cubswin just noted, outside sources almost invariably rank Underwood ahead. Maybe for some informed reasons? Just following the crowd isn't necessarily correct; but sometimes the outside crowd actually does have some objective sense?

 

2. Inside evaluation consensus: McLeod and the Cubs scouts do their own ranking. Both this offseason and last, they valued Underwood ahead of Candelario. Maybe for a reason?

 

3. Age: Underwood is a year younger.

 

4. Ceiling: Underwood scores higher.

 

5. Pitchers jump: Pitchers have greater opportunity to "jump" than hitters. You throw the ball yourself, you're the initiator. As the initiator who determines each pitch, it's way easier for a pitcher to "figure something out" and make a performance jump, than for a hitter.

 

6. Scouting and inconsistency: Scouts, including McLeod himself, see Underwood at times having a plus heavy fastball, a plus curve, and a plus change. Again, a very young pitcher has a greater opportunity to improve consistency.

 

7. BB-progress: 6.2 - 4.5 - 3.2 - 2.8 BB/9. Underwood has been on a steady pathway of control improvement. For a guy who is scouted as having very good stuff, and who'll play his AA season at age 21, that seems pretty good progress. Good stuff and low walks, that seems good.

 

8. Fastball/groundball/K/BB puzzle: Underwood's faults of course are the HR's and the low K's. Interestingly, his GO/AO ratio is pretty good, 1.42 on his career. That seems to match the scouting, that his fastball is a pretty heavy ground ball pitch. That also seems to match the scouting, that he's thrown a lot of fastballs thus the modest K-rates. Breaking balls and change ups can improve with practice; if they do, K's can go up and HR's can drop.

 

I switched from Candelerio to Underwood a day or two ago because of this post. i see it's a one vote difference at this point....