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wolf stansson

By wolf stansson,
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UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

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Still plenty of time but if we were to lose would we need 3 at Honduras to be in any sort of decent position going into the final set of games.?
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Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

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Still plenty of time but if we were to lose would we need 3 at Honduras to be in any sort of decent position going into the final set of games.?

 

 

Coming back to this, assuming Panama doesn't get any points later in Azteca, you have:

 

USA 8 pts +1 GD

Honduras 8 pts -6 GD

Panama 7 pts -1 GD

 

With these schedules:

 

USA: @Hon, v.Pan, @T&T

Hon: v.USA, @CR, v.Mex

Pan: v.T&T, @USA, v.CR

 

A tie and a win for the US would not only put them at 11 points, but make it extremely difficult for them to be caught since Panama would likely be on 10 points and Honduras 9 entering the final game day where the US has by far the best matchup. 4 points from the next 2 games isn't a given, but Honduras hasn't exactly defended their home field well, and there's other uncertainties like Panama taking 3 from T&T(they haven't won at home in the hex).

soccer10k Cooperstown

soccer10k

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Still plenty of time but if we were to lose would we need 3 at Honduras to be in any sort of decent position going into the final set of games.?

 

 

Coming back to this, assuming Panama doesn't get any points later in Azteca, you have:

 

USA 8 pts +1 GD

Honduras 8 pts -6 GD

Panama 7 pts -1 GD

 

With these schedules:

 

USA: @Hon, v.Pan, @T&T

Hon: v.USA, @CR, v.Mex

Pan: v.T&T, @USA, v.CR

 

A tie and a win for the US would not only put them at 11 points, but make it extremely difficult for them to be caught since Panama would likely be on 10 points and Honduras 9 entering the final game day where the US has by far the best matchup. 4 points from the next 2 games isn't a given, but Honduras hasn't exactly defended their home field well, and there's other uncertainties like Panama taking 3 from T&T(they haven't won at home in the hex).

 

We're fine unless Costa Rica clinches a top-3 against Mexico and decides to not try in their last two games. It's unlikely with the matchups but Mexico would absolutely tank that last game if it screwed us over. But the only way that would happen is if we beat/tied Honduras but lost to Panama and then Honduras won in Costa Rica.

 

Even to finish third we could lose a close one to Honduras and still be fine because of goal differential. Lose to Honduras, win the next two and Honduras would have to beat Mexico by 7 goals or something to make up the GD.

soccer10k Cooperstown

soccer10k

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Last couple rounds of South American qualifying will be interesting. Chile's trying to blow it by losing at home to Paraguay 3-0 and then losing at Bolivia (9th place) 1-0. Brazil is officially in and Uruguay is all but qualified (they're in second and they play the 9th and 10th place teams).

 

After that:

 

3. Colombia  26 (+3 GD)  vs Par  at Per
4. Peru      24 (+1 GD)  at Arg  vs Col
5. Argentina 24 (+1 GD)  vs Per  at Ecu
6. Chile     23 (+1 GD)  vs Ecu  at Bra
7. Paraguay  21 (-6 GD)  at Col  vs Ven
8. Ecuador   20 (+0 GD)  at Chi  vs Arg

 

Colombia is in if they win one of the two games and might get in with two draws. Ecuador needs to win twice to make it and Paraguay probably does also.

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
soccer10k Cooperstown

soccer10k

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Last couple rounds of South American qualifying will be interesting. Chile's trying to blow it by losing at home to Paraguay 3-0 and then losing at Bolivia (9th place) 1-0. Brazil is officially in and Uruguay is all but qualified (they're in second and they play the 9th and 10th place teams).

 

After that:

 

3. Colombia  26 (+3 GD)  vs Par  at Per
4. Peru      24 (+1 GD)  at Arg  vs Col
5. Argentina 24 (+1 GD)  vs Per  at Ecu
6. Chile     23 (+1 GD)  vs Ecu  at Bra
7. Paraguay  21 (-6 GD)  at Col  vs Ven
8. Ecuador   20 (+0 GD)  at Chi  vs Arg

 

Colombia is in if they win one of the two games and might get in with two draws. Ecuador needs to win twice to make it and Paraguay probably does also.

 

Update:

 

3. Colombia  26 (+2 GD)  L 1-0 vs Par  at Per
4. Chile     26 (+2 GD)  W 2-1 vs Ecu  at Bra
5. Peru      25 (+1 GD)  T 0-0 at Arg  vs Col
6. Argentina 25 (+1 GD)  T 0-0 vs Per  at Ecu
7. Paraguay  24 (-5 GD)  W 1-0 at Col  vs Ven

 

Chile put itself in good shape today but Argentina and Columbia blew chances to put themselves in great position. Going into the last week, only Paraguay can't get at least 5th win a win because Columbia and Peru play each other (the loser of that is probably out).

wolf stansson Knoxville Smokies

wolf stansson

Old-Timey Member
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What needs to happen for Argentina to be in/out (I realize I could look into it, but I'd rather ask someone who already knows, and this thread isn't active enough lately).
bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
What needs to happen for Argentina to be in/out (I realize I could look into it, but I'd rather ask someone who already knows, and this thread isn't active enough lately).

Out with a loss, in with a win, with a draw they need to hope for 3 of 4 outcomes of Paraguay L/T, Peru L, Chile L, and Colombia L by 2+

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Ftr, we're going to lose tonight. I have such a terrible feeling.

 

I'm very glad there's Cubs playoff baseball to watch instead. They could win 7-0 and it still wouldn't be a relief, so there's no way that's going to be a pleasant viewing experience.

wolf stansson Knoxville Smokies

wolf stansson

Old-Timey Member
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Ftr, we're going to lose tonight. I have such a terrible feeling.

 

I'm very glad there's Cubs playoff baseball to watch instead. They could win 7-0 and it still wouldn't be a relief, so there's no way that's going to be a pleasant viewing experience.

You're insane. Playoff baseball just gives you double the risk.

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