Minor League Musings

[Jason Ross]

Let me weigh in a little more substansative right now:

Good: I like what I'm seeing across the system pitching wide. The Cubs have a few arms from the recent years showing improved stuff and velocity. Ryan Gallagher, Grant Kipp, Evan Ashenback have all shown really encouraging signs of being useful arms. Beyond that, Jaxon Wiggins has exploded on to the scene and is performing about as well as Cade Horton was at the same levels. JP Wheat and Nazier Mule have flashes of improvement though both have more to do before they're legitimate. Luke Little and Jack Neeley have righted their ships as well. Riley Martin looks like he's found some command. 

Offensively, Rojas and Hernandez have had really great years. Moises Ballesteros and Jonathon Long are both on the up and up as well. Owen Caissie's power has really flashed this year and his defense has made strides again. Carter Trice, Ivan Brethowr and Eli Lovach of the last two drafts have had encouraging years, teetering on breakouts with a few extra tweaks. Christian Franklin, outside of a bad stretch, has made himself a real threat to  be an MLB player. 

Bad: Injuries have been a pain for some guys. Brandon Birdsell, Jordan Wicks (not a prospect but I'm adding him into this system overview), Cole Mathis, and James Triantos have been negatively affected by them, throwing their seasons off. Long time to get it together, but a pain in the ass.

Myrtle Beach just hasn't had a great year. There's interesting players there, but they're struggling a bit. 

Kevin Alcantara has been bad against non-fastballs. That's redflag territory. It's not "his ship is sunk" or anything, but thats not good. Caissie's K% has spiked heavily into the 30's this year. His power is helping offset this, but right now, you'd be hard-pressed to believe enough contact to be fully offset yet. 

Depth in the system is questionable. Losing Cam Smit to trade, Cade Horton and Matt Shaw to promotion and some iffy down-the-table performances means that there's a bit less meat there than has been. 

Overall: I still think this is an encouraging year on the whole, even if it's imperfect. I suspect the system will rank by the end of the year somewhere in the late teens, to low-20's range...say....18-23? That adds in some trades even with the draft coming. But it's a system that needs one good IFA crew to play well and their last IFA group was promising on paper. Last year's draft still has enough upside floating around to help too. There was a lot made of the system in the last few years that it didn't have a star player, and all Pete Crow-Armstrong has done...well I think we can say we were probably wrong there. I think the system may be deceptively low; if Juan Thomas or someone like that jumps off the paper, if the Cubs nail their first round pick or can add in a second rounder with big upside, we probably have more upper ceiling guys than we know. 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-6-16-25/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/yohendrick-pinango-jhostynxon-garcia-headline-10-statcast-standouts-june-16/

Quote

Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs

Caissie has one of the more internally consistent exit velocity/launch angle metrics. It pretty much spells out a 70 raw/game power profile. His contact and swing decision metrics also point to a player with limited bat-to-ball who will be a three true outcomes type of player. This is Caissie’s second year at Triple-A, so let’s take a look at what’s changed:

He’s hitting the ball much harder (about three mph), while also getting it in the air more. That’s come at the expense of just a couple of points of zone contact, with basically identical swing decisions. That’s a fantastic trade-off. Caissie has clearly reached a new level, and is pushing to crack a crowded Cubs lineup soon.

 

[Bertz]

Among AAA hitters with at least 200 PAs, the Iowa Cubs have four guys in the top sixteen in xwOBA.  Can you guess who and in what order?

#6. ???

#7. ???

#8. ???

#16. ???

[We Got The Whole 9]

Long

Franklin

Mo

Caissie?

[allen6510w]

Long and Ballesteros for 6-8 slots.

Franklin and Caissie for #16

So, either I'm forgetting someone or underestimating Caissie or Franklin

The BA article states that Caissie has a mean exit velocity of 92.6 compared to 89.5 in 2024 while his average launch angle increased from 13.9 to 16.1. 

Edited June 16, 2025 by allen6510w

[Bertz]

38 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Long

Franklin

Mo

Caissie?

This is almost it.  Gotta swap Mo and Caissie though.

Long - .381

Franklin - .379

Caissie - .373

Mo - .359

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Drew Gray is starting a rehab assignment in the ACL

Burl Carraway to South Bend. Probably his last chance.

[allen6510w]

7 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I'm curious as to why Cameron spent so much time in low-A given his age, OPS, K/W and how poorly Brian Kalmer has played.  Perhaps they were hoping he could re-find his power stroke while working on his fielding, perhaps they wanted to give Brian a fair chance as he presumably beat out Cameron this spring, perhaps they believed Cameron's success this year was due to a SSS, or other (likely the actual reason) 

 

[Bertz]

Not all fat guys are the same, but probably notable when thinking about Ballesteros that Alejandro Kirk managed to turn himself into a pretty strong defender.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/5-breakout-mlb-pitching-prospects-who-have-raised-their-stock-in-2025/

[Bertz]

Really really good read here

Talks a lot about things that get brought up every day, but brings some hard numbers to the table which we're sorely needed.

[Donzo]

Wiggins at 60 (60.1) innings for the year, which is already a little more (59.2) than last year.

What are we looking at, 90-100 innings this year?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[allen6510w]

On 6/24/2025 at 5:14 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Perhaps related. 

RHRP Jordan Henriquez 6’4” 245 Lbs (200404) [2024-DR] Jordan signed with the Cubs a few weeks before his 20th birthday.  In 2024, Jordan posted a 21/10 K/W in 24.1 DSL IP with a 0.174 BAA.  In 2025, Jordan returned to the DSL posting a 13/5 K/W in 9.1 IP with a 0.094 BAA before getting promoted to the ACL in late June. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[Bertz]

33 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

 

Honestly a relief.  His last two outings have been horrific (7 BB and a HBP in 9 batters) after seemingly righting the ship for like a month prior.  Hopefully we can blame this injury.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-mlb-hitting-prospects-with-standout-data-in-june/

[Donzo]

Horton graduated from the Cubs top 30.

Cassie now #1 and I think they added Sanders to the list, he's at #20. I like the scouting report. He's huge; he throws harder than I thought.

"Scouting: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Splitter: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 40

While Sanders' 92-94 mph fastball can touch 97 and is missing more bats in his second pro season than it did in its first, it's still not especially lively."

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Honestly pretty similar deal with Alcantara.  Chase and contact numbers are flat, batted ball quality is substantially better.  His line just looks worse because of a few more K's (probably not permanent given the whiff and chase #s) and a less flukey BABIP.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Donzo]

Wondering who the other five pichers are for Huss?

1- Mule

2- Neely

3- Gray

4- Scheffler?

5- ????

Can't be McCullough, hurt two years in a row. Brooks Caple, Sam Armstrong, someone on the ACL roster?!?