Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nelson Velázquez and Max Bain are the Cubs August player and pitcher of the month.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wow AA is older than I thought

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow AA is older than I thought

 

The lost season last year has really changed the landscape of the minors this year.

[Bertz]

 

This is really good data. A few of these, like Morel and Canario, I'd never have guessed were anywhere near this high.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Hot Sheet (20 hottest prospects from the last week): https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-9721/

 

13. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (East)

Age: 22

 

Why He's Here: .556/.619/.889 (10-for-18), 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2 SB

 

The Scoop: Nwogu was the Cubs’ third-round selection in the abbreviated 2020 draft. A Michigan product, Nwogu has put together an up-and-down season. After an August which saw him put forth an OPS of .693, Nwogu collected eight hits in the first 15 at-bats of September. He’s hit one home run already this month, equaling his total from all of August. He’s one of just three players in the Cubs’ system (and just 30 in the minors) with 10 or more doubles, 10 or more homers and 15 or more stolen bases. (JN)

[Hrubes20]

BA Hot Sheet (20 hottest prospects from the last week): https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-9721/

 

13. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (East)

Age: 22

 

Why He's Here: .556/.619/.889 (10-for-18), 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2 SB

 

The Scoop: Nwogu was the Cubs’ third-round selection in the abbreviated 2020 draft. A Michigan product, Nwogu has put together an up-and-down season. After an August which saw him put forth an OPS of .693, Nwogu collected eight hits in the first 15 at-bats of September. He’s hit one home run already this month, equaling his total from all of August. He’s one of just three players in the Cubs’ system (and just 30 in the minors) with 10 or more doubles, 10 or more homers and 15 or more stolen bases. (JN)

 

Nice! Just a reminder to everyone that over the past 2 months and over 200 PAs, he's hitting .300/.403/.489 with a 13.7% BB rate and 24.6% K rate.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Hot Sheet (20 hottest prospects from the last week): https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-9721/

 

13. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (East)

Age: 22

 

Why He's Here: .556/.619/.889 (10-for-18), 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2 SB

 

The Scoop: Nwogu was the Cubs’ third-round selection in the abbreviated 2020 draft. A Michigan product, Nwogu has put together an up-and-down season. After an August which saw him put forth an OPS of .693, Nwogu collected eight hits in the first 15 at-bats of September. He’s hit one home run already this month, equaling his total from all of August. He’s one of just three players in the Cubs’ system (and just 30 in the minors) with 10 or more doubles, 10 or more homers and 15 or more stolen bases. (JN)

 

Nice! Just a reminder to everyone that over the past 2 months and over 200 PAs, he's hitting .300/.403/.489 with a 13.7% BB rate and 24.6% K rate.

 

I honestly was surprised Piñango was the one promoted to high-A over Nwogu, especially considering experience.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

Having a totally normal one and thinking about Kevin Made this morning. So I decided to do some research.

 

Since 2010, 89 players have played in full season ball as a 17 or 18 year olds and racked up at least 150 PAs. Of those:

 

- 5 are currently doing so, including Kevin Made

- 30 never really became anything. They never really got all that high on top prospect lists, and if they made the majors it was a mediocre cup of coffee. About half of these guys are still active, so we'll likely get a success or two out of this pool still

- 4 are still in the minors, and are good prospects who look like future MLB regulars

- 9 are either on the current top 100 prospects list or were recently and now are very early in their MLB careers (e.g. Wander Franco)

- 9 were very good prospects that busted hard (e.g. Jonathan Singleton)

- 9 played in the majors, but topped out as 2nd division types or bench players (e.g. Ronald Torreyes)

- 12 ended up as MLB regulars

- 11 ended up as MLB stars

 

That's a pretty great distribution there, and why even with Made's warts he's someone to be excited about.

 

Now obviously, most of the stars on this list like Mike Trout were light-years ahead of what Made is doing. But even if you sort the players by offensive output, Made is currently right in between Carson Kelly and Adalberto Mondesi. So even in that lower quartile there's good company. Made has also been performing well for about 6 weeks now, so if by season's end he's moved his wRC+ up another 10 or 20 points the outlook gets that much rosier.

 

Ignoring today's games, since I made this post Made has raised his wRC+ from a 69 to an 81. That takes him from ranking #78 out of 89 players to being tied for #66. Given how hot he's been he'll likely leapfrog a few more.

 

Also, Owen Caissie has become a relevant part of this discussion. While he's just turned 19, he's in his age 18 season, though with how late he got called up he's not going to get to 150 PAs. However, setting the PA threshold aside (because I'm too lazy to re-pull data), his 112 wRC+ coming into today would rank 29th on this list. The four guys ahead of him are Wilmer Flores, Cheslor Cuthbert, Manny Machado, and Isaac Paredes. Luis Urias and Chris Owings are just behind him. Obviously some duds there, but Owen's performance is enough to say he's more likely than not an MLBer, which is pretty horsefeathering cool.

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[craig]

 

Devers is 163K/45BB over his career thus far. 6'3", 21. Would be fun if he emerges as a real prospect.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Didn’t know this about Ronnier:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hot Sheet: Baseball's 20 Hottest Prospects From The Past Week (9/21/21)

 

2. Brennen Davis, OF, Cubs

Team: Triple-A Iowa (East)

Age: 21

 

Why He’s Here: .417/.481/.833 (10-for-24), 6 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 6 RBIs, 3 BB, 4 SO

 

The Scoop: Davis announced his presence nationally with a pair of home runs in the Futures Game. He closed his season on a similarly high note by swatting two more longballs in his first game after a promotion to Triple-A Iowa. Overall, Davis’ season delivered on the promise he showed as an amateur. Among 21-year-olds, he finished 10th in OPS (.891) and seventh in isolated slugging (.242) while playing the bulk of his games at the upper levels. He’s easily the top prospect in Chicago’s system and should be a key piece of the team’s rebuild. (JN)

 

14. James Triantos, SS/2B, Cubs

Team: Arizona Complex League Cubs

Age: 18

 

Why He's Here: .727/.769/1.545 (8-for-11), 8 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 0 SO, 0-for-1 SB

 

The Scoop: Triantos played in just three games over the past week, but he got on base in nearly every plate appearance and clobbered the ball when he did swing, with five extra-base hits in 11 at-bats. It's just a continuation of what he's done all summer since the Cubs drafted him with their second-round pick in July, with Triantos showing plenty of hitterish qualities en route to a .327/.376/.594 line with six home runs in 25 games. (BB)

[UK]

Yay or nay to Triantos being a top 5 prospect in the system? I vote yay

 

Plenty have fallen sans Davis to put Triantos in the top 5.

[CubsWin]

Yay or nay to Triantos being a top 5 prospect in the system? I vote yay

 

Plenty have fallen sans Davis to put Triantos in the top 5.

Enough guys have also risen/been added to put Triantos outside the top 5. I think you can make a solid argument for several prospects to be in the Cubs top 5 after Brennen Davis. Triantos certainly is one of them, but not to the clear exclusion of others like Cristian Hernandez, Reggie Preciado, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, DJ Herz, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ryan Jensen, Kevin Made, Yohendrick Pinango and even Jordan Wicks and Ed Howard.

 

It all depends on how much value you put on performance at higher levels, defense at premium positions and how a player fared in his last 100 PAs. I can make a strong argument for putting Triantos in the top 5 right now. But I can also make strong arguments for any of the other players mentioned.

[CubsWin]

And the really good news is that the system is much deeper than that. We could debate who makes the Cubs top 20 much less what order they'd be in.

 

I just listed 13 names all with a viable argument to be listed in the top 5. Add in the previous top 10 guys who didn't get a chance to play much/at all this year (Marquez, K. Franklin, Amaya, R. Thompson), other guys who took large steps forward this season (Velazquez, Nwogu, Aliendo), other solid in-season additions (Kilian, Vizcaino, Espinoza, Canario) or maybe you're high on some more pure scouting plays (Gray, C. Franklin, Mena) or some previous top 10 (call them "post-hype" if you like) guys (C. Morel, Strumpf, Roederer) and you've got 30 guys for 20 spots.

 

If you want to talk top 30, maybe you think some relievers should be added to the discussion (Leeper, Carraway, Ueckert, Kobos, Roberts) or some recent IFA signings (Ballesteros, P. Ramirez, R. Quintero) or some older, stuff pitchers who need refinement (Sanders, Bain). Now you've got 40 names for 30 spots.

 

The point is the Cubs system is deep and debatable. The order we choose to put these guys in is fairly arbitrary. So many possibilities with so many questions left to be answered that how they're ranked is up to what characteristics you value and who you believe in.

[CubsWin]

Triantos - positionless infielder without top notch defensive skills, put up great numbers in 109 PAs, but they came against rookie ball level pitching. He is almost exactly one year younger than Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers that, like Triantos, were almost all older than him, but Howard plays stellar defense at a premium position.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong to put Triantos in your top 5. I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying you can diminish Triantos' profile like you did the other guys (relatively small sample size, worse competition, not outstanding defensive ability, not a premium position) and still make a valid argument for ranking him however you like. And I compared him to a guy many are down on because of meaningless full season numbers.

 

The fact of the matter is, outside of Davis, we don't know enough about any of these prospects to definitively place them in the Cubs top 5 and be "right" about it. And thus, you can make a valid argument for about 13 guys being in the top 5 right now. It all depends on what characteristics you place more value on in your assessment process.

[Named After Maddux]

The Cubs rankings are pretty fun that 2-11 on everyone’s lists are probably all different. I’ll throw out there that I have Triantos 8th on my personal list as of today. I still need to ask around about a few prospects, but that’s probably pretty close to where he’ll sit with my final ranking this winter. If you have him in your top 5, there’s nothing outrageous about it.

I’ll be, almost assuredly the “high guy” on Kevin Made.

 

I’ve used the Yorke comp before and others are now as well. It’s not unreasonable to see Triantos finish next year at Hi-A and in the latter part of a Top 100 this time next year. That’s the high end of projections, but the skills are there.

[CubsWin]

The Cubs rankings are pretty fun that 2-11 on everyone’s lists are probably all different. I’ll throw out there that I have Triantos 8th on my personal list as of today. I still need to ask around about a few prospects, but that’s probably pretty close to where he’ll sit with my final ranking this winter. If you have him in your top 5, there’s nothing outrageous about it.

I’ll be, almost assuredly the “high guy” on Kevin Made.

 

I’ve used the Yorke comp before and others are now as well. It’s not unreasonable to see Triantos finish next year at Hi-A and in the latter part of a Top 100 this time next year. That’s the high end of projections, but the skills are there.

Yeah, it's definitely an interesting system right now. In my 30+ years of following Cubs prospects, I don't think I've ever seen it deeper and less defined.

[CubsWin]

Triantos - positionless infielder without top notch defensive skills, put up great numbers in 109 PAs, but they came against rookie ball level pitching. He is almost exactly one year younger than Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers that, like Triantos, were almost all older than him, but Howard plays stellar defense at a premium position.

 

To pick this apart:

 

- Being positionless as a teenaged SS is a whole different world from being positionless as a teenaged COF. Like "positionless" for Triantos is to slide over to 2B or 3B depending on his mobility and arm strength (and he could hit the mid-90s on the mound so probably it's a strength for his defense) with COF/1B being the furthest down fallback options

- He faced rookie ball pitching as an 18 YO newly drafted HSer, this is normal at worst and definitely not a knock particularly with such a strong showing

- Not being on par with Ed Howard in this system isn't really a knock or at least shouldn't be seen as one

 

Agreed that some excitement should be tempered over just 109 PAs, but it's enough to get a good read on his already reportedly strong plate approach and in between also showed some usable game power as one of the younger players in the org at an age and experience appropriate level. Also this rookie showing came off a dominant showcase circuit the Cubs clearly had eyes on, translated right away from what we were told he'd be able to do which. The basic profile both offensively and defensively isn't crazy different from guys like Nick Yorke or Anthony Volpe, nominal HS SS prospects with outstanding hit tools and enough power to be interesting who came into the pros swinging, and both went in the first first round. Also notable is they paid 2nd round pick Triantos more than they paid 2019 24th overall pick Ryan Jensen. He's a lock to open next year, barring injury, at the lowest full season level and will probably swing between 2B, SS, and 3B on that roster, something most of the same aged guys of similarly high amateur status can't definitively say today

 

It'll be close and I'll proooobably have him just outside the top 5, but I think he's one of the prospects in the system there's more confidence around than others

Totally fair, but that's also my point.

 

I could easily pick apart some of the criticisms you made of those other guys. Errors in the DSL? Made not having a projectable body? Positionless OFer? We can all do the same thing with anybody on the list except Davis.

[Bertz]

I actually have been noodling on a top prospects list given that everything but Iowa is done, and nothing these last two weeks are going to materially change our opinion on Davis, Deichman, or the relievers (which is pretty much all that's left at Iowa prospect-wise).

 

By my count, I see 17 guys you could realistically put in the top 5 (ordered by rough MLB proximity)

 

Davis

Kilian

Amaya

Velazquez (I'm probably alone out on this limb)

 

Wicks

Brailyn

Jensen

 

Herz

K. Franklin (probably the least defensible guy on this list TBH)

PCA

Made

Howard

 

Caissie

Hernandez

Alcantara

Preciado

Triantos

 

That really speaks to both the strength and weakness of this system. It's not great that you can argue ~17 guys up as high #5. But on the flip side it's fantastic that guys like Ethan Roberts and Ben Leeper really don't belong in our top 30. Even a lot of damn good systems have like half the depth we do, and have several guys like that in their 20s.

[CubsWin]

Totally fair, but that's also my point.

 

I could easily pick apart some of the criticisms you made of those other guys. Errors in the DSL? Made not having a projectable body? Positionless OFer? We can all do the same thing with anybody on the list except Davis.

 

TBF it's less about the league the errors came in than the errors themselves. There's definitely star SSs who are error prone these days, but it's guys like Tatis and Bichette Jr. who are constant candidates to move

 

Caissie's OF defense is really bad, he looked at least a little whelmed in MB at the speed of the game and got played a few times out there. Here's what he said after the 2020 draft:

 

While Caissie has his work-from-home routine under control, the one aspect of his game that will be the most difficult to improve until he can see some game action again is also the tool he feels needs the most work -- his defense.

 

“Fielding, I just need to power shag, because I’m indoors most of the year and I never see pro fly balls,” Caissie said. “The only time I’ve ever seen a pro fly ball was with Team Canada, and that was only on one trip, so it wasn’t that much exposure. But when I go down to the AZL or wherever I go down to, I’ll be able to power shag and work on it every single day. That’s when I feel like I’ll improve the most is because these American kids are outside every day and I’m inside for eight months a year.”

 

Made's got room to fill out up top, has definitely added some (good) weight since signing especially in the lower body, but he'd be the shortest starting SS in the MLs if that were the case right now at his listed 5'10." Obviously that's not the end of the world, I've made a comp to Orlando Cabrera before and still don't hate it, mostly don't see a high ceiling hitter unless he sells out defensively to be more like Triantos offensively (which is easier said than done)

That Caissie quote is from an article published over a year ago (Sept 3, 2020) before he was traded to the Cubs and had any professional training. If you're trying to support an argument that his defense is terrible, you may want to find better evidence than that. He may very well wind up playing LF, 1B or DHing, but this has little to do with whether or not one can say with any certainty that Triantos is a top 5 or top 6 prospect in the Cubs org (or whatever you're saying he is now).

 

We don't know how much a 19-year-old OFer will improve his defense over the next 2-3 years. And that's my point. There's so much that is unproven about most of these teenagers at the lower levels that a variety of opinions can be supported, including yours.

 

If you'd like to believe that your opinions are the right opinions, that's okay with me.