Minor League Musings

[Tim]

 

Welp, Rea's gone. Hopefully more Iowa SP depth gets brought in.

I wonder if that came down to a conversation where the cubs wanted him to convert to reliever and he wanted a shot at being an SP somewhere.

[Bertz]

 

Welp, Rea's gone. Hopefully more Iowa SP depth gets brought in.

I wonder if that came down to a conversation where the cubs wanted him to convert to reliever and he wanted a shot at being an SP somewhere.

 

My guess is he's further down both the SP and the RP depth chart than I realized. Like if he's currently 8th on the SP depth chart and 11th on the RP one, that's a guy you'd like to have around but you're not gonna fight for him to stay.

 

The Cubs have had their problems from a labor relations perspective, but they're pretty good about doing guys solids like this.

[Brian]

Jordan Bastian says that he was released to pursue an opportunity in Japan

[craig]

I would imagine at the moment the battle for the fifth starter spot would be Rea and Miller fighting it out, with Abbott as someone they would hope is viable around midseason.

Who do you think is in the mix for 5th/6th/7th, of the internal guys? And of those, who do you think might perhaps have the best chance of emerging as a viable not-bad anti-awful guy?

My sense is that Abbott is ahead of those two ... ...I'd put the in-house depth starters in the order of:

 

Cory Abbott

Gray Fenter

Tyson Miller

Keegan Thompson

Brailyn Marquez

 

Two caveats. [highlight=yellow]Justin Steele is going to be a reliever long term, but for some reason there are reports that the Cubs have been saying they want to see him start games this year[/highlight] in the minors (at least in spring training). ....

 

Thanks for rotation thoughts, each of you guys who have posted. Win, thanks for note on Steele, I hadn't read that before. That's really interesting and surprising, if true. My sense is that he's been really wild in past, so that seems odd. Of course, he'll turn 26 this summer and has finished 7 years with the Cubs, but has only pitched 340 innings. So they may just want him starting to get a solid 70 pitches thrown on a rotation schedule just to get some real-game innings under his belt?

 

Matt Thompson of ProspectsLive liked Thompson quite a bit, because of his command and variety of arsenal that he can sequence in various ways. He ranked Thompson right behind Abbott, and ahead of Miller.

 

Miller seems to have some good pitch-lab qualities, and some positive buzz from alternative site; has been kinda HR-vulnerable back in his box-score days. Anybody have any data on his splits? The arm slot would seem good versus righties, but is he pretty vulnerable versus lefties? Or not really a problem?

 

Abbott/Thompson/Miller, hard to guess. Level of relative success might depend on which if any actually has a real plus, killer, putaway breaking pitch or not. And how good both command and consistency is. A lot of times collective results are dictated more by the frequency of bad mistakes than by the quality of the non-mistakes. I have no idea how to project their relative performance.

[Bertz]

 

Very relevant to this conversation.

 

Interesting to me that you'd let Rea go if you think you're really going to go 9+ deep in starters. To me that says one of these:

 

1. It's beyond courtesy, more like an unwritten rule that you've gotta let a fringey guy like that take his talents to the NPB/KBO

2. The org is gonna bring in multiple additional starters, whether they be MLB or Iowa

3. Rea was WAY further down the depth chart than I was giving him credit for

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[craig]

I wonder if ≤AA will also have delayed finish, or no?

 

We know guys typically get dropped a level or two. Guys at AA start in majors or AAA, guys who start in AA camp normally dropped to A or lower. I imagine the Cubs could really invite almost anybody who's going to end at AA to big-league camp; probably most any top-50 prospects who'd project to play full-season A-ball, too.

[CubsWin]

3. Rea was WAY further down the depth chart than I was giving him credit for

The data from 2020 showed Rea was much more effective in 1 inning stints than multi-inning ones. My guess is he was no longer considered a starting candidate. The Cubs have brought in a lot of relief depth on both minor league (Biagini, Bourque, Wieland, Kelley, Jewell, re-signed Vasto and Dermody) and major league (Stock & Holder) contracts this off-season and already had a decent amount of options in-house out of the pen. Rea would likely have seen time as a reliever this year, but he got a better opportunity in Japan.

[craig]

I think Rea is totally a courtesy move, and one that every team enables. Guy has a chance to make a bunch of guaranteed millions. No teams block that. Good luck to Rea over there.

[craig]

TH: "We're going to have a lot of opportunity for young guys to step up and show that they can handle the Major League level and they're ready." Behind Alzolay, mentioned Abbott, Marquez, Miller, Steele. Said Rule 5 pick Gray Fenter will be stretched out and given a look, too.

 

Thanks, interesting. There's Steele mentioned again, and Fenter. Thompson not mentioned.

 

Hottovy also mentioned Underwood as a possibility, given his former history in rotation. I think he'd be an interesting one, since I think his stuff and usage has probably shifted some since last in rotation. Hard to envision his consistency or command holding up well, though, but who knows.

 

I wonder about the "multi-IP relievers" bit, how important that actually is, for all the talk they give it. That was talk last summer, too; but when the season actually played, how often did Ross use guys for 2 innings, and did he ever use a reliever for 3 or 4? I guess 2 innings is "multi-IP", so for sure you do want that. But I'd not think getting stretched out to accommodate 2-inning usage would be really all that hard.

 

I suppose it might be a bigger need this year. Early last year, the starters were rolling up innings pretty consistently, so the bullpen was never overwhelmed. Plus the extra roster size enabled a limitless stock of relievers to cover whatever innings came along, and the extra innings rule protected, too.... Depending on roster size and rules, maybe there will be fewer arms to cover more innings. And if we've got some pretty shaky inconsistent rotation guys, guys might get knocked out early more often, too....

 

Last year, they used 9 starters? Original 5 plus Alzolay, and then Colin Rea, Tyson Miller, and Q each had one or two starts. Obviously you're always going to have a bunch of starters at Iowa who can be called up to fill. From a scouting, career-establishment, and competitive perspective, I'm not sure miller's 1 start or Rea's two starters were really an adequate audition to scout them or for them to prove themselves. Neither does one or two starts, even if they're bad, sink your playoff chances.

[craig]

https://ivyfutures.com/2021/01/04/prospect-report-ryan-jensen/

...That would put Jensen at a 5 pitch mix: two seam and four seam both with elite velocity, slider, changeup, and curveball....Same as Alzolay but throws harder, better two seamer, probably better overall secondaries......

 

I've very enthused and curious to see what the can do.

Still, not to be a downer, but every pitcher in pro has experiments and tried lots of pitches. Every minor-league rotation guy does that. Whether Jensen will be able to throw all those pitches for strikes, that's the question, and obviously those who actually can are the exception, not the norm.

 

Scouting reports on Jensen never seem very optimistic about his control potential, much less command. But I admit wondering and hoping anyway? If I'm a smart scout, I'm not giving 1st-round recommendations on a guy who I don't think has a chance to control it pretty well. I've got to assume if the Cubs claim to be excited about the slider/curve progress, obviously some of that is spin and such, but I'd think some might be that he's showing an ability to repeat and throw those pitches for strikes or close.

[Named After Maddux]

https://ivyfutures.com/2021/01/04/prospect-report-ryan-jensen/

 

Jensen threw around 60 simulated innings during the shutdown and experimented with changeup grips and shaping a new curveball.

 

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required and encouraged)

 

Ryan Jensen, has an electric fastball, but the Cubs are thrilled about the development of his secondary pitches, a focus this past summer. The expectation is he’ll bring a much-improved breaking ball to the mound this season.

 

Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required and encouraged)

 

Interesting

 

That would put Jensen at a 5 pitch mix: two seam and four seam both with elite velocity, slider, changeup, and curveball....Same as Alzolay but throws harder, better two seamer, probably better overall secondaries...I thought his changeup was underrated or had potential out of the draft too

 

Gooooooood stuff, and set up for maybe 90 innings in 2021 maybe 100, just seems like a nice sleeper in the org

 

Thanks for posting Tom. I do think Jensen is a bit underrated in the system. He did have a viable changeup coming out of Fresno St, but if he’s still experimenting with grips it may be a bit of a work in progress. He’s an interesting guy to watch this summer. I agree with you, if he can throw a solid 90-100 innings, that sets him up for 2022.

[craig]

Jensen is obviously a huge swing guy for the organization. People often talk about leadership and philosophy and process, for good reason. But you really build a winning roster one player at a time. A 5-man rotation, each time you fill a spot with an asset guy, particularly initially cheap and with years of club control, that's a huge step towards building a winner.

 

Jensen has the arm and stuff to possibly provide that, and it would be huge if he succeeds. Work in progress for sure. But yeah, the ability to command his stuff, consistently, is the hinge. Would be so fun and valuable if he turns out to be a success guy.

[Bertz]

 

I don't like that Miller is currently slated as the 5th or 6th starter, but I love that our Iowa SP depth is finally actually interesting

 

 

Here's some data to back up Bryan's interest in these low approach angle guys. And coincidentally, looks like Jack Patterson's got some of this going on as well

 

 

Clearly appears to be a thing the Cubs are in on

[craig]

Thanks, Bertz. Questions about that:

1. How does that factor into splits? Not sure whether data supports is, but I think a presupposition in past was that lower arm slot might make a guy more vulnerable to opposite hitters?

2. I wonder on control? Wouldn't a more side-arm guy be more likely to have greater horizontal variance relative to an over-the-top, who might be more likely to have greater vertical variance? Or overall no correlation between command/control and arm slot?

 

Will be interesting to see what Patterson looks like this summer. He was a crazy fun story in 19, but the age, history, draft spot, and velocity didn't reinforce going crazy confident that he'll end up being a good major leaguer. He'd be another fun success story.

 

Cubs have at least 5 prospect pitchers of some interest who will all turn 26 this summer: From oldest to youngest:

Thompson (March)

Steele, Miller (July)

Patterson (August)

Abbot (September)

[Cubswin11]

Obviously that should be an out, but man that’s some easy power to one hop the wall one handing that and being out in front.

 

[Bertz]

Thanks, Bertz. Questions about that:

1. How does that factor into splits? Not sure whether data supports is, but I think a presupposition in past was that lower arm slot might make a guy more vulnerable to opposite hitters?

2. I wonder on control? Wouldn't a more side-arm guy be more likely to have greater horizontal variance relative to an over-the-top, who might be more likely to have greater vertical variance? Or overall no correlation between command/control and arm slot?

 

Will be interesting to see what Patterson looks like this summer. He was a crazy fun story in 19, but the age, history, draft spot, and velocity didn't reinforce going crazy confident that he'll end up being a good major leaguer. He'd be another fun success story.

 

Cubs have at least 5 prospect pitchers of some interest who will all turn 26 this summer: From oldest to youngest:

Thompson (March)

Steele, Miller (July)

Patterson (August)

Abbot (September)

 

The splits question is an interesting one. It doesn't tie into this directly, but I thought this article from a few months back was interesting:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-southpaw-advantage/

 

By this same logic you'd *think* that guys with weird release points would do better than their raw stuff would indicate against opposite handed hitters. But in practice most of the funky guys I could come up with off the top of my head, e.g. Chad Bradford, were extremely vulnerable to opposite handed hitters. Is that a testament to how terrible their raw stuff is?

 

Maybe it depends on arsenal? I think, anecdotally, the funkiest guys are sinker/slider types. Those pitches have the largest platoon splits. But if you have a guy whose game is tunneling the high fastball with the curveball, maybe a lower release point doesn't make them any more vulnerable to opposite handed hitters? So good news for Patterson, bad news for Miller?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CubsWin]

Highlights from the Matt Dorey interview:

 

-Outside of the 5 week Instructional League (plus a 2 week performance camp immediately following), only players on the 40-man roster were allowed to work at the Mesa facility due to Covid restrictions. Sounded like only a handful of guys did during the season.

 

-Justin Steele looked great at the alternate site, got called up, wasn't used and then had a hamstring issue. Dorey was excited to see what he could do and that was a tough blow for Justin.

 

-Expects to see Steele and Brailyn Marquez in the bigs this year. Wasn't specific in what exact capacity. It sounded as if he thinks Steele's got a good shot at breaking camp in the bullpen.

 

-Chris Morel took a big step forward at the alternate site. He's likely a year away from being big league ready.

 

-Cory Abbott has a real opportunity to win a job in spring training and if not should be used for spot starts throughout the year. Abbott has added a 4th pitch since being named Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2019.

 

-Ryan Jensen pitched 70 simulated innings. Added a curveball to his FB/SL mix. Needs time to just pitch, get innings and fine tune.

 

-Ryan Franklin grew an inch and added 10-15 lbs. Wouldn't be shocked if he's sitting 95-98 this year. Needs to experience managing a full season of innings.

 

-Cubs want to develop all their current SS as SS. The player will let them know through their performance when they need to be moved off to a different position. (I'm guessing that likely means Andy Weber at AA, Yeison Santana at High-A, Ed Howard and Luis Verdugo at Low-A, Cristian Hernandez, Reggie Preciado and Kevin Made in Mesa.)

 

-Brennen Davis' lack of experience playing baseball (lack of an established routine, a long history of building and maintaining his swing), he was unusually open and coachable. His development is a testament to the effectiveness of the Cubs coaches as well as his work ethic and athleticism.

 

-Jordan Nwogu's workout regimen is ridiculous. He's really intelligent and thoughtful. Has a strong drive to improve. Like Davis, he also hasn't played a lot of baseball. With his athleticism, he could also improve quickly.

 

-Amaya felt so good with his performance and where he was at at the alternate site, that he lobbied to go to winter ball. Cubs enthusiastically agreed.

 

-PJ Higgins is ready right now to be a major league back-up.

 

-Players most likely to take a big jump forward in their development this year: Andy Weber, Chase Strumpf, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson. Wouldn't be surprised if Thompson starts in AA this year.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I've heard Abbott added a 1-seam

[craig]

That Dorey interview was really, really good. And CubsWin gave a terrific recap of it.

 

Couple add-ons: In mentioned Riley Thompson as the second breakout-candidate pitcher beside Jensen, he mentioned being really fast, I think his wording was tickling triple digits. pre-draft, BA reports had talked about high-end velocity. But I thought in his pro reports from both 18 and 19, that there really wasn't mention of being exceptionally fast, and reports were more low-90's touching 95. *IF* he's really very fast and approaching 100, that's maybe a different story. Particularly for a guy where the fastball is his 2nd pitch. Dorey mentioned that his curve is really good, one of the best in the system, that his changeup is developing or improving or some wording like that, and made reference to developing a cutter. I'm a big cutter fan, and think it often adds a pitch that guys can throw for strikes to different parts of the zone. So I thought that report was pretty interesting.

 

As CW and Tom have mentioned, had some really positive excitement about Jensen, great athlete, explosive stuff. But while he may end up using 5 pitches as Tom is hoping, that wasn't quite the story that Dorey was spinning. He referred to jensen as having been mostly a 2-pitch guy, who also used the change some in college but not a lot; and referred to the curve as a 3rd pitch (not a 5th). Oddly, he made some reference to the curve for Jensen as a pitch he could throw for a strike. I found that curious, since for most pitchers the curve is a very difficult pitch to throw for strikes, and I rarely think of pitchers with control issues looking to add a curveball as a strike pitch. Hope it works.

 

In mentioning Andy Weber as one of the two offensive breakout candidates (with Strumpf), he mentioned Weber having gotten a lot stronger, more physical, and was really driving the ball. That's interesting. He was only 20 and pretty slim when he was drafted; in 2019 he hit 8 HR, but he had 43 other XBH. So he wasn't a singles guy; *if* he's bigger/stronger and some of those doubles become HR's, he could become a different prospect if he ends up with decent HR production.

 

I thought the positivity about Abbott was pretty interesting, reference to transformation as a pitcher; reference to developing the 1-seam fastball to go with his two above-average breaking pitches and his riding fastball. He talked about his riding fastball, and then I thought tossed in the word cutter; I wasn't sure if he was saying he has a riding 4-seamer, AND a cutter, and the two above-average breaking balls, and now the 1-seam changeup, to make him a 5-pitch guy? Or whether he was actually suggesting that his riding fastball is actually a cutter? I don't normally think of guys using cutters at the top of the zone. Talked about his being really athletic, and really competitive, and "killing it" in Mesa, in addition to being in really great shape. And tons of strikes. Very curious to see what he can do. With six years of club control in front of him, *if* Abbott could emerge as capable rotation guy, even if not great, that would be fun to eat up one of the rotation spots, and to free up budget for other targets.

 

Dorey had "sky's the limit" for Franklin, with his projection on his fastball, comment that he can throw strikes, mentioned his curve having really good spin, and of course his changeup has always gotten good reports as being a plus pitch and one of the best changeups in the system, not counting Hendricks.

 

I wish the interviewer wouldn't have changed subjects or directed the interview in non-player directions. Dorey was willingly talking details about prospects, but interviewer detoured him to Brewslow direction, and detoured him to talking about Theo. Would have loved to have asked him another 5-10 minutes to talk about other pitchers who might be emerging or might be guys we'll be talking about a year from now. Would have loved to let him discuss Clark, Herz, McAvene, Schlafer, Roberts, Gallardo, Cruz, Rodriguez, Fenter, Rodriguez, Thompson, Burgman, Bigge, Patterson, or whomever. Dorey might have willingly gone that direction if either allowed or given any kind of little nudge, he was more than willing to talk about anybody. I'd just love to have a prospect interview with him that talked about nothing but players, and didn't spend any time on the familiar top-10.

[craig]

Tom, good points that the interviewer has audience other than prospect-following fans like us in mind. [i admit I find endless stories about Theo-for-commissioner, how-awesome-was-Theo, how-smart-is-Breslow, and Covid-disrupted-what-we-do to be kinda redundant and boring; but maybe the larger audience has more appetite for those than I do.]

 

I don't imagine that Dorey or the organization has much close-to-the-chest, keep-it-secret stuff in terms of hyping their prospects. Dorey was more than willing to discuss whomever came up, whether Nwogu or Weber or Riley or whomever. So I suspect he'd have been fine to share some pitch discussion and he's-working-on-XYZ if the discussion had turned to McAvene or Clark or Gallardo or whomever. The interview just didn't flow that way. I kinda suspect having discussed Jensen and Franklin, that Dorey was just about ready to discuss some other pitchers when interviewer kind of cut him off and redirected to his SS-is-the-flavor-of-the-month thing.

 

On Jensen, Dorey was pretty enthusiastic, was the first "breakout" name, and talked about his stuff being explosive, really athletic guy, etc.. I do get the 5-pitch thing. But Dorey kinda talked as if Jensen was a 2-pitch fastball/slider guy who needed a 3rd pitch, thus the focus on trying to develop the curve. Maybe he's just using broadly using "fastball" to encompass both high-fastball and low-fastball 4-/2-seam variants. Right after mentioning the 2-pitch-needs-a-3rd thing, he almost caught himself to acknowledge that Jensen had tinkered with the change in college, but hardly used it. I kinda got the impression that he views the change as a token pitch that, at least for now, doesn't look like a useful part of his arsenal? He didn't say that, I'm just inferring from how he talked. I's also possible that the change will be an area of focus later, but isn't right now? In mentioning the need-for and efforts-on 3rd-pitch, the curveball, he curiously mentioned that as a pitch he could throw for strikes, before mentioning the change that he'd used a little bit in college. I'm just speculating, but I suspect they are having him work on curve more than change because they think his change did NOT look like a pitch he'd be able to throw for strikes very often, and that the curve had a better chance for that? Perhaps in time the change will be used at times, but perhaps more as a chase-pitch than a pitch that can be thrown for strikes reasonably often?

 

I still think it was weird/dumb that they didn't bring Jensen to South Bend to work with him there. If he's working on grips and change and curve and stuff, I'd like to hope the Cubs coaches would have been helpful in supporting that. O well.

 

Still, this may be a guy who still has a fair bit of learning, discovery, and development ahead for him. Maybe now the focus will be curve. Maybe in a year or two he'll invest time in something else in the changeup world, maybe even the one-seam like Abbott? Maybe at a different point he'll decide that maybe some cutter action will complement his other stuff, who knows. But I'm guessing there may be a few chapters left in his developmental story.

[craig]

..Dorey kinda talked as if Jensen was a 2-pitch fastball/slider guy who needed a 3rd pitch, thus the focus on trying to develop the curve.

 

I just don't hear that at all in the interview...

 

I re-listened, and you may be right here, Tom. I may have just been reading things in that weren't really there. Dorsey said there were really focusing on the curveball and talked about that most; said previously was mostly two-pitch fastball/slider, with some change in college that he didn't throw much.