BA's Cubs 2015-16 Top 10 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Holy crap, Oscar de la Cruz: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects/

 

1. Gleyber Torres, ss

2. Willson Contreras, c/3b

3. Ian Happ, of/2b

4. Duane Underwood, rhp

5. Dylan Cease, rhp

6. Albert Almora, of

7. Billy McKinney, of

8. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp

9. Eloy Jimenez, of

10. Jeimer Candelario, 3b

[Guest]

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Gleyber Torres

Best Power Hitter Eloy Jimenez

Best Strike-Zone Discipline Mark Zagunis

Fastest Baserunner D.J. Wilson

Best Athlete Jacob Hannemann

Best Fastball Dylan Cease

Best Curveball Bryan Hudson

Best Slider Tyler Skulina

Best Changeup Jen-Ho Tseng

Best Control Daury Torrez

Best Defensive Catcher Victor Caratini

Best Defensive Infielder Carlos Penalver

Best Infield Arm Jeimer Candelario

Best Defensive Outfielder Albert Almora

Best Outfield Arm D.J. Wilson

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I didn't realize Wilson had that kind of an arm. I guess I can't really think of another outfielder we have that has a huge arm. I know Rademacher has a strong arm. Eloy has a pretty good one, too. Still, that's interesting to see Wilson at the top -- as I thought his arm was supposed to be just average-ish. I really liked when we drafted him. He's an interesting guy with his speed, defense, and contact abilities.

[Guest]

Edwards not being on there is nuts.

No. It's really not.

[Guest]

In a Top 10 with 2 short season pitchers on there, plus Candelario(not to mention underachieving toolboxes like Underwood and Almora), you can make a really, really good argument that Edwards should be on there.

[Guest]

In a Top 10 with 2 short season pitchers on there, plus Candelario(not to mention underachieving toolboxes like Underwood and Almora), you can make a really, really good argument that Edwards should be on there.

But it isn't "nuts" to skip over a reliever who can't throw strikes.

[Guest]

In a Top 10 with 2 short season pitchers on there, plus Candelario(not to mention underachieving toolboxes like Underwood and Almora), you can make a really, really good argument that Edwards should be on there.

But it isn't "nuts" to skip over a reliever who can't throw strikes.

 

You can make most of the top 10 sound similarly undesirable if you want to frame things that way. BA's list is obviously heavy on tools, and Edwards's stuff is as good or better than the 3 pitchers on the list. While he was a reliever this year, he didn't fail into it and could be converted back, which I find it hard to hold against him in a prospect ranking that rates Dylan Cease(a guy with 24 IP in 11 appearances as a pro, who is ~4 years away) as high as it does. Edwards is closer to MLB ready than anyone in the Top 10(I could mayyybe see Contreras), which is another point in his favor.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't agree that Edwards didn't fail into it(failure by inability to stay healthy) or that he could be converted back.(Ditto + 60 and ~50 innings the last 2 seasons.)

[Guest]

I don't agree that Edwards didn't fail into it(failure by inability to stay healthy) or that he could be converted back.(Ditto + 60 and ~50 innings the last 2 seasons.)

 

 

I think a single DL stint is a pretty big stretch to say that permanently kicked Edwards out of being a starter. I get the logic that durability will be a question with him and the injury was an indicator, but setting 'don't miss a start with injury' as the bar for not failing as a starter is a bit extreme for me.

 

As far as converting back, the implication isn't that Edwards could be a full time SP in 2016, but I don't think that's much of a negative when we're putting Cease and de la Cruz way up the list and they're many years away. I guess it hurts his MLB readiness if you see no value in Edwards being a good reliever right away, but that wasn't a big part of the point I was making.

[craig]

Thanks for list. Agree, interesting that good-stuff-wildman Edwards off. Interesting that DeLaCruz included. I'll be interested to see what their comments are about him. (Please share if/when they post some.) Surprised that KHapp was so high. Surprised that Candelario was included.

[Guest]

In a Top 10 with 2 short season pitchers on there, plus Candelario(not to mention underachieving toolboxes like Underwood and Almora), you can make a really, really good argument that Edwards should be on there.

But it isn't "nuts" to skip over a reliever who can't throw strikes.

 

You can make most of the top 10 sound similarly undesirable if you want to frame things that way. BA's list is obviously heavy on tools, and Edwards's stuff is as good or better than the 3 pitchers on the list. While he was a reliever this year, he didn't fail into it and could be converted back, which I find it hard to hold against him in a prospect ranking that rates Dylan Cease(a guy with 24 IP in 11 appearances as a pro, who is ~4 years away) as high as it does. Edwards is closer to MLB ready than anyone in the Top 10(I could mayyybe see Contreras), which is another point in his favor.

I understand CJ's strengths. I'll have him in my top 10. I just can't agree that it's "nuts" to leave him out.

 

I will, however, say that I think it is nuts to have him at #1.

[craig]

In a Top 10 with 2 short season pitchers on there, plus Candelario(not to mention underachieving toolboxes like Underwood and Almora), you can make a really, really good argument that Edwards should be on there.

But it isn't "nuts" to skip over a reliever who can't throw strikes.

 

You can make most of the top 10 sound similarly undesirable if you want to frame things that way. .....

 

I agree with Tim's note. True, most of these guys can be framed in a negative way that could justify excluding them. That said, I don't think it's "nuts" for BA to hold that view.

 

We can disagree. (I included Edwards in my top 10, certainly, and I think really good stuff and really good relievers are very valuable.) But it's not "nuts" for a contrasting opinion to be lukewarm about a reliever who can't throw strikes. Hardly "nuts" to consider a 41BB/55IP reliever to be too wild to be very good. And not "nuts" to exclude a guy because they believe he's going to be a reliever (lots of people do), and because they think he's too wild to be an excellent one.

[craig]

In their projected tools, they have Gleyber with 60's on everything (including power) other than speed (55). Not sure I've projected his power to be as good as his defense, for example. But if so, that would explain why he ranks so favorably. And if that projection proves correct, he'll be a very fine player.

[craig]

Back to Edwards, unpredictable things happen in this crazy game, and unpredictable management decisions as well. But I think at this point, whether it was Theo-team-dumbness or whatever, I think it's relatively unlikely that Edwards will be realigned onto rotation track.

 

Rotation-track guys, they typically want guys who can eat innings and have diverse repertoire. Edwards is slight, wild, and thus far can't control any pitches much less three different ones. I'll be pretty surprised if they realign Edwards back to rotation track. Like it or not, disagree with it or not, he's probably on the relief side for good.

 

Very good relievers are super valuable. I'd be happy if he could be a really good reliever. Whether he'll have enough command for that to prove true, time will tell, I have no reason to assume he will and none to assume he won't. We've seen Grimm and Strop be super valuable as wild man relievers with very good stuff. So it's not like it's impossible to be variably successful despite control issues. Or, maybe Bosio will be able to clean him up and his control really won't be that bad long-term, who knows.

[toonsterwu]

At first glance, my first inclination is ... okay. Really, you could make the case for a lot of different arrangements for the Cubs prospects this year. It does feel like they went harder on tools/upside this year.

 

I really do love the de la Cruz ranking. Feels like there's some serious elite upside potential there (frame, size, stuff, mechanics don't seem to be a huge concern as of now), and he's coming off a simply fantastic season. We'll have to see how it holds up.

 

Are they really projecting almost all plus tools for Gleyber? If so ... that's better than projections for Profar's tools back in the day, tools wise. That's a lot of love ... very curious if there's any questions directed as to why they feel the tools are that special.

[Bilbo161]

I didn't realize Wilson had that kind of an arm. I guess I can't really think of another outfielder we have that has a huge arm. I know Rademacher has a strong arm. Eloy has a pretty good one, too. Still, that's interesting to see Wilson at the top -- as I thought his arm was supposed to be just average-ish. I really liked when we drafted him. He's an interesting guy with his speed, defense, and contact abilities.

 

I agree. That's eye opening for me on Wilson. One more reason to look forward to following him. The lack of arm is so prevalent in CF that most teams don't even require it anymore. At least it seems that way. Always bothered me about Bobby Dernier.

[Bilbo161]

Edwards not being on there is nuts.

 

I thought he would be there too. Must think he has no chance as a starter, but to me, he could be a lights out type RP and should be there on that alone.

[UMFan83]

Are we discussing the BA post-release chat anywhere? Some good info in there:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects-chat/

 

Jeff (Wisconsin): You guys seemed high on McKinney on the midseason top 50. What has changed since then? The injury? His numbers were solid at AA considering his age.

 

John Manuel: We were high on him, as he was raking in high Class A. We talk to a lot more scouts for the postseason stuff than we do at Midseason because it’s not a moving target and the games are over; it’s easier to find scouts, it’s easier to get information and to delve deeper into players. McKinney reminds me a lot of Tommy LaStella; he’s an above-average hitter, chance to be plus, though he did not handled lefthanders at all this year, which is a red flag if he wants to be a regular. Like LaStella, he’s not a great athlete, and other than the hit tool, all the other grades are average or below. What is he, profile wise? It’s hard to see him being an impact player at this point. Most of the scouts I talked to saw both Almora and McKinney and were fairly split. I prefer Almora; I think there’s more there, better body, much, much more defensive value.

 

Frank (Chicago): What's Vogelbach's projection at this point? Future DH for an AL club? Still in your top 30?

 

John Manuel: Look for him in the Rule 5 draft preview. He’s blocked, he didn’t have a huge year due in part to injury, he’s never hit for prodigious power and he lacks defensive value. I didn’t realize I was so grumpy today but I apparently am. I like Vogelbach, but I don’t see him being a factor for the top 30.

 

Matt (Naperville, IL): How big of a tumble did Pierce Johnson take in your rankings? If he can stay healthy and his command improves, what is he?

 

John Manuel: Pretty decent tumble; talked to a scout who saw him recently in the Arizona Fall league, and it wasn’t pretty. The reports of the stuff have backed up and the durability has not improved. I love my Colorado pitching prospects, but Kyle Freeland, Marco Gonzales and Pierce Johnson all are doing their best to make me stop having blind faith in that phylum of players.

 

Mike (Boston): Curious about why Eddy J. Martinez didn't crack the list. He seems like the sot of premium international signing who would slot in immediately. Do you view him as a candidate to place high on the list next year?

 

John Manuel: He’s not. Premium int’l signings are for 8 figures, not 7. I’m not making light of it, but premium international guys all get in the 10s of millions of dollars. Some of the media reports of Mr. Martinez’s tools, to our understanding, are inflated. He can really run and has athleticism. We’ll see about the bat. He’s an 11-20 kind of guy.

 

RotoChamp (Arizona): Willson Contreras came out of nowhere in 2015 and is now #2 on the list. If you had to give a name currently out of the top 20ish prospects that could make the top 5 next year, who would that be?

 

John Manuel: Contreras is one of the biggest climbers I can think of in 15 years of Handbooks. I’m sure there are others, but consider that Contreras was Rule 5-eligible last year (and every year since 2010), but wasn’t picked. Oscar Hernandez, a low Class A catcher, was picked, but not Contreras. I wish I had ranked him but I don’t think I was alone in missing him; 29 other teams had a shot at him in a way as free talent and chose not to take him. As for outside the top 10 guys who could really jump up … the Cubs’ young Latin American arms such as Adbert Alzolay and Pedro Araujo are intriguing. DJ Wilson, their 4th-round pick, could jump high into the top 10 if his workout tools translate into full-season production. Maybe Kevonte Mitchell will get it, but man, he did not back up my great faith in him this year. Disappointing season.

 

A bunch more at the link

[UMFan83]

Also, RE: Edwards

 

RotoChamp (Arizona): Did Carl Edwards exit from the top 10 because of 'stuff' concerns or is the transition from SP to RP the only reason for his descent?

 

John Manuel: The reliever deal was kind of important. Chalk that up as a pretty big whiff by yours truly; I really thought that guy was going to be a star. Sorry for getting your hopes up, Cubs fans.

[Guest]

No Vogelbach in the Top THIRTY? What a weird list this is.

[davell]

Initial thoughts.....

 

CJ is in my top 10, but it's definitely not worth any hand wringing if he missed. 2) No surprise BA will be low on EJM, it'll take actual performance before they let up off Badler's report. Embarrassing comment on elite guys getting over 10 mill though as it definitely seemed he just got hung out by unforeseen circumstances(and had 7.5 from Yanks before their offer timed out. 3) If Vogelbach isn't top 30, that's just dumb. I'm not counting on trading him at this point, but he could be nice insurance on Rizzo and a solid PH/backup type. 4) Very intrigued on what they must have heard on De La Cruz that jumped him up this high.

[toonsterwu]

I've really got no huge issue with Edwards outside of the top 10. Look, at the end of the day, rankings are simply for discussion, and Manuel is one of the better ones out there. It sounds like he was fairly thorough in doing the legwork, and IIRC, he was huge on Edwards last year (as he acknowledges in the chat). If the thought process is that he feels that Carl, as a reliever, is not a surefire bet to dominate, and thus, the question of his value to the organization, as a whole, becomes trickier to assess, then okay. I don't think I would leave Edwards out of a top 10, but I don't have a problem with the argument for it. Everyone ranks differently, and it really comes down to what criteria you are utilizing and emphasizing. It sounds like, in this case, he made a value assessment (to put him outside the top 11 - he basically says Zagunis is 11). Doesn't mean he's right, doesn't mean he 's wrong, but I can understand his thought process behind it. A measure of upside, a measure of value.

 

The Pierce Johnson statement is a bit more telling. If his stuff has backed up ... he's really not that intriguing. I mean, what held his intrigue was the potential of two plus pitches utilized in some role (starting or out of the pen).

 

Vogelbach out of the top 30? Eh. Don't agree. Dewees in 21-30 range? I'm okay with that, but he's got more potential to be a long term CF than McKinney, so the wide gap seems questionable. Again, no issue with it, though. Wish he had given more analysis on Trevor Clifton in that question. Felix Pena borderline top 30? Admittedly, hadn't thought about it, but at first thought, okay, why not? 3-7 top 100? Based on his list, the debate is on Underwood/Cease/Almora/McKinney. I'd be surprised if more than 2 made it in, in all honesty. Markey, Skulina, and Chesny Young as borderline top 30? Wouldn't really think all three of them would make it.

 

System rank 7-12? Okay. His 2nd comment (about the plethora of bad systems out there) is the more telling statement. The statements on Candelario's defense was quite ... stunning. "outstanding defender"? If so, then we might be under-selling Candelario. 2 of Williams/Null/Torrez in the top 30? Okay, I can see that, but geesh, he's throwing a lot of guys out there as top 30. Granted, he wasn't done with the list when he did the chat. Christian Villanueva as the White Sox 3rd baseman is ... funny.

[Guest]

He doesn't say anything about Edwards as a reliever besides him being docked solely because of it. No need to add words. My thinking is we're basically witnessing continued racism against relievers. BA is the most scout heavy one, and scouts want SPs. I understand why they did it, just think it is wrong in the context of ranking this individual system. He didn't even mention the walks or anything.

 

Agreed most with the "light on his feet" comment on Candelario and am more worried about HR power than his defense.

 

I like Null some in a Scott Feldman kind of way, liked him in the draft too, and would have him in my top 30. The others not so much, really think Williams is org depth more than an actual prospect.

I think it's the 42 free passes in 55 innings as much as being a reliever that docked him.

[craig]

There aren't many teams looking hard to trade for DH's whose only skill is walking. I don't really see any problem with Vogelbach being outside the top 30. (He's at #40 on my list! :))

 

I have Edwards well into my top 10.

 

But really, other than Candelario, I don't see compelling reason to flip Edwards over the guys BA included.

*The info Manuel got on de la Cruz was pretty enthusiastic. "Beast", "stud", plus movement-plus-velocity fastball that touches 97, throws strikes, I can see why Manuel ranked him ahead of a wild reliever if that's his intel. Maybe his info is baloney, and the scouts he talked to weren't really that smart, so Edwards as a 7th inning reliever may have a much more valuable career, very possible. But I can see how a possible rotation asset would rank ahead of a wild reliever.

*Likewise Jiminez, with his power potential, I don't think it would have been wise to exclude him from the top 10. So if those guys are coming in 8th/9th, I don't see huge argument about posting 42walk/53inning Edwards behind them.

 

It's maybe the nature of the ranking/projecting business to try to ID and rank impact players. Cease, Jiminez with his Bryant/Schwarber-level raw power (and no attitude/effort/intelligence/contact/K issues thus far), and DelaCruz (given the "stuff" evaluations Manual was working with), those three have shots to be stars or high-impact guys. I think BA doesn't want to omit possible impact guys like that, and if they do their is no shame there, since they obviously mention how distant and raw and short-season each of those three guys are. But If Edwards becomes an effective setup reliever, I don't think BA would have the same "How did we miss that guy?" shame. Miss on setup reliever, o well. Miss on a big star? Big miss.

[craig]

I'm not that big a Candelario guy. So I had Edwards ahead of him. Seems like a decent-across guy, but not sure I see anything special.

*Manuel has his defense and arm really good. Just this week Law thought his defense was a limitation, rather than a significant asset. I assume he's got a good chance to be fine, but not a "because of his glove" guy. I'm a little guarded there.

*I'm optimistic about his power. But none of the scouting reports really describe him as a HR-guy. He's been a 10-11 HR guy, while young. So, I'm very optimistic that he project the raw power and hitting skill to eventually be a 14-24 HR kind of guy. But none of the scouting reports seem to scout as having big power in the Baez/Soler/Schwarber/Bryant/Jiminez mold, or even in the Addison Russell mode. I'm guarded their too.

*His K/BB are solid, very much so if he was a HR guy, but at the same time not amazing or anything. And his average hasn't been anything wow. .270's this year, .250 previous season. I'm pretty optimistic; K/BB is controlled, and having 8/1 K/HR ratios at 20/21 gives him a serious chance to maintain respectable K/HR ratios future. But I don't get the sense that his wrists and bat-speed have the "pop" that really good hitters have. So, again I'm guarded.

 

Seems like a very nice prospect, but maybe more a guy who might be an average-across-the-board guy rather than good-at-everything-and-special-at-something.

 

Overall a very good prospect, and we'll see what the new summer brings. Hopefully he'll step everything up, the more Manuel-like defensive evals will become the norm and win out over the Law-view. Hopefully his BABIP will look better, and he'll bump his HR's a little further.

 

I admit a certain level of hypocrisy, probably. Candelario has a chance to be a solid/average starter. I see Almora as having a chance to be a solid/average starter. I've got Almora in my top 5, because given the Cubs present layout, a capable solid/average CFer projects to be a very valuable commodity. And with Soler/Schwarber having defensive limits on one or the other or both sides, having a good-D CFer seems especially important long-term. Perhaps if 3B was to Candelario what CF is to Almora, perhaps I'd have Candelario securely in my top 10, and Almora on or off the bubble too.