08/27 CUBS (Haren) @ San Francisco (Bumgarner) 2:45 CDT, CSN TV

[ARCubsFan]

Cardinals win, 8.5 behind them now. Go Cardinals this weekend.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Cardinals win, 8.5 behind them now. Go Cardinals this weekend.

 

So business as usual for you.

[Ski]

Is there a chance we catch the Cardinals? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

[Clem Fandango]

DBacks have two on, no out and Goldy up in the 8th, down 5-3. Cishek walked the first two hitters in the inning.

 

EDIT: Walked Goldy also so bases loaded, no out.

You're gonna be shocked at what happened next

 

He fixed the cable?

 

http://i.imgur.com/T8zw8y7.gif

[Guest]

Is there a chance we catch the Cardinals? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

 

Is there a chance that both the Dodgers and the Giants or both the Mets and the Nationals catch us? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is there a chance we catch the Cardinals? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

 

Is there a chance that both the Dodgers and the Giants or both the Mets and the Nationals catch us? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

 

I hope those two flame out next.

[Ski]

Is there a chance we catch the Cardinals? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

 

Is there a chance that both the Dodgers and the Giants or both the Mets and the Nationals catch us? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

I haven't been one of those crying doom and gloom about us missing the playoffs, though.

[Guest]

it's pretty easy

 

if we win, we definitely want the giants to win

 

if we lose, it's fine if the cardinals win

[UMFan83]

it's pretty easy

 

if we win, we definitely want the giants to win

 

if we lose, it's fine if the cardinals win

 

Good way to look at it

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Guys like David are way better at math than me, but why is it that out of question that the Giants catch the Cubs? I'd rather be up six in the loss column than down six, but there is still a month left and they don't have to climb over multiple teams to catch us.

 

I don't know. I just want to secure a playoff spot this season. I'm not greedy. I'd rather the Giants lose to help lock that up.

[Banedon]

Because the Giants will catch the Dodgers before they catch us. For the Cubs to lose the WC spot, both the Dodgers and Giants would need to go on a tear while the Cubs lost a bunch. This while playing each other 7 more times.

[Sammys Boombox]

Is there a chance we catch the Cardinals? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

 

Is there a chance that both the Dodgers and the Giants or both the Mets and the Nationals catch us? Sure.

 

Is there a realistic chance? Absolutely not.

I haven't been one of those crying doom and gloom about us missing the playoffs, though.

 

Question. Who here has been crying gloom and doom? I don't think I've seen anybody worried we weren't going to the playoffs - only people saying other people are worried.

But I also don't read every a single post, so it's very possible I missed it.

[UMFan83]

Guys like David are way better at math than me, but why is it that out of question that the Giants catch the Cubs? I'd rather be up six in the loss column than down six, but there is still a month left and they don't have to climb over multiple teams to catch us.

 

I don't know. I just want to secure a playoff spot this season. I'm not greedy. I'd rather the Giants lose to help lock that up.

 

Again, if the Cubs play .500 the rest of the year, that puts them at 91-71

 

The Giants would have to go 24-11 to pass the Cubs with 92 wins. If they go 24-11, chances are they would pass the Dodgers and win the West. If that was the case, the Dodgers would have to go 22-14 to win 92 games

 

The chances of all 3 of those things happens (Cubs playing .500ish ball, Giants playing at least .686 ball, Dodgers playing at least .611 ball) are pretty low. Not impossible at all but low.

 

Then you look at the schedules. The Giants and Dodgers still have 7 games left against each other. So right there is 7 more losses split between them already out of 27 losses needed for the Cubs to feel safe at .500.

 

If you presume the Cubs who have been playing out of their minds lately will play better than .500 the rest of the way then obviously it tilts even more in the Cubs favor.

 

Looking at schedules, the Cubs have 13 games left (36%) against the only 3 teams in baseball that have better records than us, 3 this weekend against the Dodgers, 3 at home against the .500ish Diamondbacks, and then 17 games left against the dregs of the league (Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Milwaukee). So for the most part we are either playing really tough teams or [expletive] teams.

 

Giants have 10 games left against St. Louis and the Dodgers and their other 25 games are against sub 500 teams (Colorado, San Diego, Arizona, Oakland). So that's a bit of a concern

 

Dodgers have 16 games left against legit playoff contenders (Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Angels) and then 20 games left against the dregs of the West

 

So overall unless you are expecting the Cubs to collapse or the Giants and Dodgers to BOTH go on big hot streaks, you should feel pretty safe.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Because the Giants will catch the Dodgers before they catch us. For the Cubs to lose the WC spot, both the Dodgers and Giants would need to go on a tear while the Cubs lost a bunch. This while playing each other 7 more times.

 

That and the Giants just aren't a better team than us. They have some injured guys on offense, and their starting rotation is terrible. Also, they don't get to play us again, while we play both the Pirates and the Cardinals at least six times each. We can make up games quickly head-to-head.

[Sammy Sofa]

Because the Giants will catch the Dodgers before they catch us. For the Cubs to lose the WC spot, both the Dodgers and Giants would need to go on a tear while the Cubs lost a bunch. This while playing each other 7 more times.

 

That and the Giants just aren't a better team than us. They have some injured guys on offense, and their starting rotation is terrible. Also, they don't get to play us again, while we play both the Pirates and the Cardinals at least six times each. We can make up games quickly head-to-head.

 

ARCubsFan would respond to this measured, well-reasoned explanation, except he's too busy at his job being Fredbird.