8/11/15 - Other Gam(e)s Thread

[ctcf]

Rockies @ Mets - 6:10 CST

Pirates @ Cardinals - 7:15 CST

Nationals @ Dodgers - 9:10 CST

Astros @ Giants - 9:15 CST

 

The Pirates are set to play 3 against the Cards and then 3 against the Mets, making those series essentially Win-Win for the Cubs.

[Andy]

I don't really consider the Mets much of an issue anymore, so I don't look at that series as win-win. Go Mets go.

[Banedon]

Rockies @ Mets - 6:10 CST

Pirates @ Cardinals - 7:15 CST

Nationals @ Dodgers - 9:10 CST

Astros @ Giants - 9:15 CST

 

The Pirates are set to play 3 against the Cards and then 3 against the Mets, making those series essentially Win-Win for the Cubs.

 

Not really a win-win to me. Yeah, guaranteed that one of PIrates-Cards lose, but on also guaranteed to win.

[Cubswin11]

Rockies @ Mets - 6:10 CST

Pirates @ Cardinals - 7:15 CST

Nationals @ Dodgers - 9:10 CST

Astros @ Giants - 9:15 CST

 

The Pirates are set to play 3 against the Cards and then 3 against the Mets, making those series essentially Win-Win for the Cubs.

 

Not really a win-win to me. Yeah, guaranteed that one of PIrates-Cards lose, but on also guaranteed to win.

Cardinals wins are probably what we want

[Sammys Boombox]

I mean, I would have liked to get down to 4 games or so back before the end of August considering the pace we have been playing at and the number of games we have against the two teams in September. If you're going to leave the WC2 contenders in the dust I'd rather the division become more feasible than WC1.

[Banedon]

Rockies @ Mets - 6:10 CST

Pirates @ Cardinals - 7:15 CST

Nationals @ Dodgers - 9:10 CST

Astros @ Giants - 9:15 CST

 

The Pirates are set to play 3 against the Cards and then 3 against the Mets, making those series essentially Win-Win for the Cubs.

 

Not really a win-win to me. Yeah, guaranteed that one of PIrates-Cards lose, but on also guaranteed to win.

Cardinals wins are probably what we want

 

Well right, but....I'd rather both lose...that's all I'm saying.

[UMFan83]

Yeah it sucks to go 11-1 and only gain 2 games on the 1st place team. Oh well.

[Guest]

All comes down to what has more value (and I'm not really sure)

 

A home game (vs. a road game but still a ticket) that's 2.5 games away, or skipping the wild card round and having a best of 5 which basically doubles your playoff odds, but is 8.5 games away.

 

I'm thinking Cardinal losses increase our WS odds more despite being so far behind.

[Andy]

All comes down to what has more value (and I'm not really sure)

 

A home game (vs. a road game but still a ticket) that's 2.5 games away, or skipping the wild card round and having a best of 5 which basically doubles your playoff odds, but is 8.5 games away.

 

I'm thinking Cardinal losses increase our WS odds more despite being so far behind.

Even factoring in a playoff crowd, I don't think it's close - STL losses are far more valuable.

[Guest]

All comes down to what has more value (and I'm not really sure)

 

A home game (vs. a road game but still a ticket) that's 2.5 games away, or skipping the wild card round and having a best of 5 which basically doubles your playoff odds, but is 8.5 games away.

 

I'm thinking Cardinal losses increase our WS odds more despite being so far behind.

Even factoring in a playoff crowd, I don't think it's close - STL losses are far more valuable.

 

The only thing that gives me pause is how much better Pittsburgh seems to be at home. Not sure how much that's neutralized by the fact that we're pretty much the same home or road.

[ARCubsFan]

The Cubs aren't catching the Cardinals. Even if they keep their current pace, they aren't catching the Cardinals. Way too good of a team and a lock to win at least 100 and probably 105.

[Guest]

The Cubs aren't catching the Cardinals. Even if they keep their current pace, they aren't catching the Cardinals. Way too good of a team and a lock to win at least 100 and probably 105.

 

But catching the Cardinals is exponentially more valuable than catching the Pirates should be.

 

On one end, you skip the gauntlet that is the one game playoff (so your odds of postseason success are doubled basically). On the other end, you marginally increase your odds in said gauntlet.

[Andy]

The Cubs aren't catching the Cardinals. Even if they keep their current pace, they aren't catching the Cardinals. Way too good of a team and a lock to win at least 100 and probably 105.

It's wildly unlikely, but there's always the chance their ludicrous LOB% swings the other way, someone important gets hurt without an inexplicably studly performance by his replacement for once, etc. etc. I still would like to see them lose rather than worry too much about whether we get home field in the coin flip game.

[mul21]

The fact that their pitchers are wildly outperforming their FIPs the last time I saw the number gives me hope of some 2nd half regression. Their offense isn't likely to stay as putrid as it had been though, so it may be a wash.