Fangraphs Trade Value

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

50. Jorge Soler

32. Addison Russell

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-30-to-21/

 

No Cubs in the 20s. Top twenty come the next two days which presumably includes Rizzo and Bryant.

[Guest]

10 pitchers in the 20-50 range, that's at least 8 too many.

[Little Slide Rooter]

FWIW, BN reposted the first part of the list yesterday, stating that Arrieta narrowly missed the cut, citing remaining years under control as the primary reason.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I would not be at all surprised if Rizzo checks in at the top 3, no doubt top 10. It's hard to imagine Harper not number 1. But Trout's contract goes insane at the back end ($34MM per year 2018-2020.) And while I don't know what kind of contracts some other young players have, Rizzo's is an absolute steal.

[sontensei]

4 of 50 not bad!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/

 

#50: Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago

Controlled Through: 2020

Guaranteed Dollars: $18 million

2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.4

Five year ZIPS WAR: +12.6

Last Year: Unranked

Soler’s first season as the Cubs starting right fielder hasn’t gone that well, with injuries and a surprisingly low power output limiting him to more potential than performance. But Soler remains one of the most intriguing young power hitters in the game, and a few hundred poor at-bats doesn’t wipe away the tools and the minor league performance. He’s still just 23, and while his contact problems might keep him from ever becoming an elite player, he looks like a quality above average regular for the foreseeable future. And he possesses the skillset that teams will overpay to acquire, as young middle-of-the-order hitters are just not really available on the market anymore.

 

Soler is one of the guys who can opt into arbitration, so he will probably make more than $18 million over the next five seasons, but even with a couple of arbitration raises, he’s still going to be a significant bargain. The Cubs have a ton of premium pieces, so it’s easy to overlook Soler in the crowd, but he’d be the best young talent on most clubs in baseball.

 

#32: Addison Russell, 2B, Chicago

Controlled Through: 2021

Guaranteed Dollars: None

2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.8

Five year ZIPS WAR: +22.0

Last Year: Unranked

Obviously, the fact that Russell was traded as part of a package a year ago — for 1 1/2 seasons of Jeff Samardzija and half a season of Jason Hammel — is going to make this ranking (and this whole series) somewhat controversial, no matter where I put Russell on the list. On the one hand, he was traded for the kinds of short-term upgrades that aren’t included in this series, so perhaps Russell is evidence that I’m overrating youth long-term value relative to short-term upgrades. On the other hand, it’s an n of 1, and the general consensus seems to be that the A’s shouldn’t have made that trade in the first place. Does the A’s decision a year ago mean that Russell doesn’t actually have this much trade value, or did the A’s overpay for Samardzija and Hammel last summer?

 

By putting Russell this high, I’m placing myself pretty firmly in the latter camp, and I bet if we could slip Billy Beane some truth serum, he’d say he’d like to have that one back. I might not be quite as high on Russell as ZIPS is — seriously, those are some bullish forecasts — but six years of a quality middle infielder with significant offensive potential is a scarce asset, and I’d bet the Cubs would demand a much larger haul to get him off their roster at this point. Even if Russell is more of a good player than a star in the making — his contact problems are legitimately concerning for a guy who isn’t likely to be a big time power hitter — he’s still a plenty valuable piece, especially with a few league minimum years still to come. And if he’s the potential superstar that ZIPS is forecasting, then this is too conservative a ranking, and Russell should actually be 10 or 20 spots higher.

 

#7: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago

Controlled Through: 2021

Guaranteed Dollars: $34 million

2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.7

Five year ZIPS WAR: +22.6

Last Year: #12

Rizzo’s breakout came a year ago when he converted a bunch of doubles into home runs, and turned into one of the game’s best first baseman in the process. To follow that act this year, he’s decided to just stop striking out and start stealing bases, taking his game up even another level, and now he’s just one of the best players in all of baseball. Being a first baseman limits his upside a little bit compared to guys who can play more demanding positions, but Rizzo’s even a plus defender at first base, so he’s a star with no real flaw.

 

And, of course, the Cubs locked him up pre-breakout, so they’ve got him at a massive discount. The $34 million in guarantees covers the next four seasons, but then they have two team options at $14.5 million each, but they only add a marginal $25 million to the total because the Cubs almost certainly won’t be paying the buyouts on those years. If those options are picked up, Rizzo will cost $59 million over the next six years; if he were a free agent this winter and teams were limited to six years offers, he’d probably still be pushing $200 million, so yeah, this is a pretty good deal for the Cubs.

 

#4: Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago

Controlled Through: 2021

Guaranteed Dollars: None

2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.4

Five year ZIPS WAR: +23.0

Last Year: #29

A friend in the game — who has seen plenty of Bryant this year — told me a month ago that his comparison for Bryant was Mike Schmidt. While expecting him to match the career of the best third baseman of all-time is probably unfair, Bryant is clearly a pretty special talent, as he’s on track to put up a +5.5 WAR rookie season despite spending the first couple of weeks in the minors. And that’s without hitting for a ton of power, which was supposed to be his calling card. If you add a bit of a power spike to the surprisingly strong defense and baserunning he’s shown early on, you have a perennial MVP candidate.

 

But, there is one little hiccup; Bryant swings and misses a lot, and the comments I made about Joc Pederson apply a bit here too. And that’s likely one of the reasons why ZIPS seems relatively conservative about his future growth, thinking Bryant is already maxing out his skills, because it’s just really difficult to be consistently better than a +5 WAR player while striking out 30% of the time. In fact, from a statistical perspective, Bryant and Pederson aren’t all that different, though I don’t know anyone in the game who would take Pederson if given a choice between the two.

 

As long as he hits for power and draws walks, Bryant will be fine, even with the strikeouts. But the contact issues do seem to potentially put a bit of a lid on his ceiling. Overall, he profiles as a something like a healthy version of Giancarlo Stanton — with a little less power but a little more value in other parts of the game — which gives him one of the highest floors of any player with a half season of big league experience you could imagine.

 

So while Bryant might have a little less best-player-in-baseball potential than some of the others in this area of the series, he’s a relatively safe bet to be a top 20 player, especially since it looks like he might be able to stick at third for a while. And it’s probably worth noting that Mike Schmidt had a serious strikeout problem at age-23, but then fixed it on his way to a +10 WAR season at age-24. If my friend’s aggressive comparison is right, Bryant might very well be number one on this list next year, and all my comments about a limit on his upside will look quite silly.

[Tracer Bullet]

would you really trade rizzo for goldschmidt?

[ARCubsFan]

would you really trade rizzo for goldschmidt?

Probably

[sontensei]

would you really trade rizzo for goldschmidt?

Probably

 

No way! Rizzo is the leader of the team and he is very awesome i wouldnt do this!

[nolanwood]

would you really trade rizzo for goldschmidt?

 

 

Nope.

[Tracer Bullet]

would you really trade rizzo for goldschmidt?

Probably

 

given the difference in age, years of control, and cost, i don't see why anyone would make that deal. now that rizzo is immune to strikeouts, it's even more [expletive] crazy.

[ARCubsFan]

Just straight up, I think Goldy is a better player than Rizzo. Realistically, you keep both players where they are because you don't want to ruin any chemistry. But in a fantasy world, yes I'd take Goldy over Rizzo.

[seanimal]

you're kind of wrong. rizzo is putting up a better age 25 season than goldschmidt did

 

plus for no reason at all, i think goldschmidt is going to do the travis hafner disappearing act in a year or two

[Guest]

It's Rizzo for 6 years after this one at like 40 million or Goldschmidt for 4 years and 30-something million. Goldschmidt is a slightly better current player, not close to being worth 2 extra years though.

[Tryptamine]

I still say it's absurd to say there are 50 more valuable players than Arrieta. The haul they could get for 2.5 more years of him would be crazy.

[sontensei]

I still say it's absurd to say there are 50 more valuable players than Arrieta. The haul they could get for 2.5 more years of him would be crazy.

 

True but he is putting up 15-20 mil/yr type performance this year. They only have him a couple more years

[Clem Fandango]

I still say it's absurd to say there are 50 more valuable players than Arrieta. The haul they could get for 2.5 more years of him would be crazy.

 

True but he is putting up 15-20 mil/yr type performance this year. They only have him a couple more years

 

It's actually closer to $30 million.

[sneakypower]

#36 Yordano Ventura demoted to AAA

[imb]

#36 Yordano Ventura demoted to AAA

 

lol