The Starlin Trade Thread

[Tracer Bullet]

Did you look up Smyly before posting that? You might be surprised at what he's done. I don't know why the Tigers used him like they did, but he's probably going to be a stud in Tampa (assuming the shoulder issue isn't major). 220 ERA+ in 7 starts last season

[Guest]

Did you look up Smyly before posting that? You might be surprised at what he's done. I don't know why the Tigers used him like they did, but he's probably going to be a stud in Tampa (assuming the shoulder issue isn't major). 220 ERA+ in 7 starts last season

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/early-returns-of-the-drew-smyly-project/

[bukie]

valid question: what's the worst pitcher you'd accept in a heads-up swap for Castro?

 

Kevin Gausman? Danny Salazar? Drew Smyly?

A potential top-10 starter that's younger than Castro that has a more team friendly contract situation.

[Guest]

I wouldn't limit it to just pitchers. If I could get a great option for the OF, I'd look at that, too.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

valid question: what's the worst pitcher you'd accept in a heads-up swap for Castro?

 

Kevin Gausman? Danny Salazar? Drew Smyly?

A potential top-10 starter that's younger than Castro that has a more team friendly contract situation.

madison bumgarner

[champaignchris]

Unless it's a package for Giancarlo Stanton or some other young, power-hitting corner outfielder, I'm not interested.

[JeffH]

I wouldn't limit it to just pitchers. If I could get a great option for the OF, I'd look at that, too.

 

To the Pirates for a package centered around Austin Meadows?

[Guest]

I wouldn't limit it to just pitchers. If I could get a great option for the OF, I'd look at that, too.

 

You'd really better be sold on Bryant as a 3B long term if you trade Castro for an OFer that isn't some great young CF who I can't think of (and said CFer would have to be great enough to be worthy not only of trading Castro for, but doing so while we have a perfectly good CFer on the roster, albeit for one year).

[sneakypower]

valid question: what's the worst pitcher you'd accept in a heads-up swap for Castro?

 

Kevin Gausman? Danny Salazar? Drew Smyly?

A potential top-10 starter that's younger than Castro that has a more team friendly contract situation.

Julio Teheran?

[The-Kris-Bryant]

I wouldn't limit it to just pitchers. If I could get a great option for the OF, I'd look at that, too.

Wil Myers? Not sure if wed have to kick in someone.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wouldn't limit it to just pitchers. If I could get a great option for the OF, I'd look at that, too.

 

You'd really better be sold on Bryant as a 3B long term if you trade Castro for an OFer that isn't some great young CF who I can't think of (and said CFer would have to be great enough to be worthy not only of trading Castro for, but doing so while we have a perfectly good CFer on the roster, albeit for one year).

 

Nothing wrong with moving Fowler to LF in that situation.

[Gilby]

True or False?

 

Starlin Castro will be a Cub on opening day 2016.

 

I still say true because Bryant ends up in LF.

[ctcf]

 

This man is speculating about a Castro trade.

[Guest]

My biggest problem right now is that the coming players that could make Castro expendable are projected to be so good that it's hard to see much benefit in trading Castro rather than moving them to a different position lower on the spectrum. For example, something centered around Castro for Ozuna could potentially make sense. But then you have to ask, is:

 

LF Fowler/FA

CF Ozuna

3B Bryant

SS Russell

 

Really better than:

 

LF Bryant

CF Fowler/FA/maybe Contra

3B Russell/Castro

SS Castro/Russell

 

this year and going forward?

 

With that in mind, I don't think it really makes a lot of sense to trade away one of the young position players unless you can be pretty sure that 2 of 3 of Alcantara, Baez, and TLS are going to be good. That's the point when you reach a true glut that needs to be relieved(and even then there's options like just letting Fowler go). That doesn't mean don't dare use those players to get what you want(I for one am dreaming of what might happen if Washington has a weird collapse in the first half), but all of these rumors are borne out the Cubs *needing* to trade someone, which is a false sense of urgency.

[Guest]

My biggest problem right now is that the coming players that could make Castro expendable are projected to be so good that it's hard to see much benefit in trading Castro rather than moving them to a different position lower on the spectrum. For example, something centered around Castro for Ozuna could potentially make sense. But then you have to ask, is:

 

LF Fowler/FA

CF Ozuna

3B Bryant

SS Russell

 

Really better than:

 

LF Bryant

CF Fowler/FA/maybe Contra

3B Russell/Castro

SS Castro/Russell

 

this year and going forward?

 

With that in mind, I don't think it really makes a lot of sense to trade away one of the young position players unless you can be pretty sure that 2 of 3 of Alcantara, Baez, and TLS are going to be good. That's the point when you reach a true glut that needs to be relieved(and even then there's options like just letting Fowler go). That doesn't mean don't dare use those players to get what you want(I for one am dreaming of what might happen if Washington has a weird collapse in the first half), but all of these rumors are borne out the Cubs *needing* to trade someone, which is a false sense of urgency.

 

Amen so hard to all of this.

[KingCubsFan]

Pretty much sums it up:

 

Perhaps no useful young player in baseball has been hypothetically traded more times than Starlin Castro. Addison Russell‘s acquisition last summer made the chatter even louder, and after a big spring, there is a natural replacement for Castro waiting in Triple-A if the Cubs chose to move him. But this one strikes me as particularly unlikely, because at the moment, Starlin Castro isn’t doing anything to keep Addison Russell out of the big leagues.

 

The trade-Castro argument essentially comes down to unblocking a logjam, but that logjam only existed as long as Javier Baez was playing a significant role in the big leagues. A terrible debut and an awful spring got him sent back to Iowa as well, however, so now the Cubs are using Tommy La Stella and Arismendy Alcantara at second base. Both are interesting and potentially useful role players, but neither one is a serious impediment to the promotion of an elite prospect like Russell, and since he’s not a defense-first SS, he wouldn’t lose much value by breaking into the big leagues as a second baseman. For 2015, there’s no real reason why Castro and Russell can’t co-exist in the big leagues once the Cubs determine Russell is ready for the majors.

 

So, really, trading Castro would open a spot back up for Baez, not Russell, and that’s a downgrade that Chicago should not want to make this year. You don’t spend $150 million on Jon Lester and then trade away a solid big leaguer so that you can rush Baez back into a job he probably isn’t ready for. Like the Padres, the Cubs are trying to win this year, and trading Castro away makes that more difficult; they may have a future logjam up the middle, but they don’t have one at present. If anything, the Cubs should be looking to add big league caliber hitters, not subtract them.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-the-padres-a-shortstop/

[toonsterwu]

I would never rule anything out ...

 

That said, as noted by everyone ... I don't see this happening anytime soon. Now ... if Addison came up and established himself at short ... maybe they get a bit more creative. Problem is, if Starlin's healthy, I don't think Addison comes up at short.

 

As fangraphs noted, unless Javier Baez gets untracked, there's no log-jam to be concerned with as of now.

 

_____

 

to sneaky's question on Gausman/Salazar/Smyly

 

if it was just one of them, plus guys a clear notch or two below ... i wouldn't consider it ...

 

if it's one of those arms plus another high quality asset or two ... i'd consider Salazar and Smyly ... I'm still a bit wary on Gausman's breaking ball and would need him to "prove" it first ...

 

put it another way, i'd rank it Salazar/Smyly ... and Gausman a bit further down