Baez and Bryant (and Russell) to Iowa

[Proven Veteran]

Not going to lie, while I was fairly optimistic about Baez coming into camp, I'm now fearing he goes full on Brett Jackson, where he's worried about making adjustments after his horrid MLB stint and won't even be able to produce at AAA anymore. I'm probably reading too much into his spring stats, but I was expecting more there. I think Russell beats him to the majors.

That's my concern as well.

[Ryno12]

In 2011, there was a relatively highly rated prospect who was called up to the majors at age 21 who posted the following line:

 

49 G / 153 PA / 128 AB / 46K / .141 BA /.281 OBP / .242 SLG / .523 OPS

 

He was sent back to AAA to begin the following season, then finished that year in the majors with a line of

 

87 G / 368 PA / 337 AB / 62K / .285 BA / .342 OBP / .463 SLG / .805 OPS

 

That guy was Anthony Rizzo. Now, I'm not saying Javy is Rizzo, but it just goes to show that baseball is hard, especially at the Major league level. Sometimes guys take awhile to adjust, it takes longer for some than others (sometimes it never happens). From all accounts, Javy is trying to make adjustments. I'm not saying that Javy's contact rate is not cause for concern (it is), but it is not unheard of for extremely talented players to struggle, make adjustments, then succeed. It would probably be wise to exercise a little patience in this instance before rushing to judgment.

[XZero771679666304]

That's not the first time the Rizzo/Baez comparison has been thrown out there on this board. I'm not sure it works, but I do think that if there is an adjustment being made by Baez, AAA is probably where he needs to finish making it. I'm not the least bit surprised Baez is being sent down, and it doesn't make me feel any less hopeful (or more hopeless, more accurately) about Javy's chances.

[Clem Fandango]

The Rizzo/Baez comparison is fun to make, but really all it represents is a cautionary tale of not writing off prospects after an initial poor showing at a young age (like you said). Despite the similarities, Rizzo's issue was never contact and K's, whereas Baez's is exactly that. Rizzo just wasn't ready. Baez is just bad at connecting with the ball and needs to fix that. No one is questioning Baez's defensive ability or his ability to hit for power. But he can't hit for power if he can't hit the ball to begin with. Rizzo never really had that problem, he was just overmatched... not to mention debuting in maybe the worst hitters park in baseball.

 

EDIT: I really wouldn't be shocked if Baez is just one of those highly touted prospects who doesn't tap into his potential until his prime years like Alex Gordon or Matt Wieters and just kinda struggles to adapt for the first 2-3 years before he starts making strides... but I'm not sure how patient our management or fans would be with a player like that, given Baez's polarity

[Thrilho]

...Despite the similarities, Rizzo's issue was never contact and K's, whereas Baez's is exactly that. Rizzo just wasn't ready...

 

Rizzo never had strikeout problems in the minors, but definitely had contact issues in his first go round. He had a 69% contact rate, with 77.9% z-contact and 57.7% o-contact. Baez was at 59.0% overall, 78.8% z-contact, and 42.1% o-contact.

 

Rizzo's o-swing was 34.7% vs Javy's 41.0%. So Rizzo did have some contact issues, but he didn't swing at junk as much and when he did he was a decent bit better at making contact.

 

Obviously, it's not a perfect comparison because Rizzo was a <20% K guy in the minors, but I think it's close enough to note.

[KingCubsFan]

The Rizzo/Baez comparison is fun to make, but really all it represents is a cautionary tale of not writing off prospects after an initial poor showing at a young age (like you said). Despite the similarities, Rizzo's issue was never contact and K's, whereas Baez's is exactly that. Rizzo just wasn't ready. Baez is just bad at connecting with the ball and needs to fix that. No one is questioning Baez's defensive ability or his ability to hit for power. But he can't hit for power if he can't hit the ball to begin with. Rizzo never really had that problem, he was just overmatched... not to mention debuting in maybe the worst hitters park in baseball.

 

EDIT: I really wouldn't be shocked if Baez is just one of those highly touted prospects who doesn't tap into his potential until his prime years like Alex Gordon or Matt Wieters and just kinda struggles to adapt for the first 2-3 years before he starts making strides... but I'm not sure how patient our management or fans would be with a player like that, given Baez's polarity

Keith Law said it would probably take about 1,000 AB in the majors for Baez to get comfortable, and I think that's probably right. Not sure if the Cubs will give him that long of a leash though.

[Sammy Sofa]

They're really only "close" if you're literally only comparing contact rates their initial forays in the big leagues.

[Clem Fandango]

Somebody call the Wahhhmbulance

 

http://i.imgur.com/36wQ0Hk.png

 

Maybe next time don't agree to a system with rules you don't like that can hurt the financial outcome of the players you represent

[Guest]

They should be publicizing this instead.

[Tracer Bullet]

They don't need as much of the revenue since they don't have to buy those expensive PEDs anymore.

[Cubbie Swagger]

What are the odds that Javy never plays in the majors again?

 

approximately the same as his odds of being killed or seriously injured in some sort of accident.

I would say somewhere close to double, or maybe even triple those odds.

[Thrilho]

They're really only "close" if you're literally only comparing contact rates their initial forays in the big leagues.

 

That was the comparison I was making. For as much as people are burying Javy for his contact rate he still had a z-contact rate equivalent to rookie Rizzo. Or compare it to whoever, an 80% z-contact is not bad as a rookie, and to me is a bright spot that is worth acknowledging.

[bukie]

to me, the biggest difference between Baez and previous cubs prospects struggles is that Baez is just one of like 5 potentials. If he can't figure it out, the team isn't screwed.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah it's not like it's some surprise that baez might not make enough contact to be a decent major league player. this has always been a possibility for him. it would be disappointing, but having 6-7 top 50 hitting prospects (bryant, soler, baez, russell, alcantara, schwarber, arguably almora) reaching the high minors within 3 years means you're very likely to end up with some good cheap bats even when accounting for injuries and prospect attrition.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Can we stop comparing Baez to Rizzo and make the right comparison: Mike Olt

[Sammy Sofa]

They're really only "close" if you're literally only comparing contact rates their initial forays in the big leagues.

 

That was the comparison I was making. For as much as people are burying Javy for his contact rate he still had a z-contact rate equivalent to rookie Rizzo. Or compare it to whoever, an 80% z-contact is not bad as a rookie, and to me is a bright spot that is worth acknowledging.

 

It's just a really narrow comparison that really doesn't do much of anything to justify the general comparisons to Rizzo people still insist on trotting out just because Rizzo struggled with the Padres.

[Guest]

They're really only "close" if you're literally only comparing contact rates their initial forays in the big leagues.

 

That was the comparison I was making. For as much as people are burying Javy for his contact rate he still had a z-contact rate equivalent to rookie Rizzo. Or compare it to whoever, an 80% z-contact is not bad as a rookie, and to me is a bright spot that is worth acknowledging.

 

It's just a really narrow comparison that really doesn't do much of anything to justify the general comparisons to Rizzo people still insist on trotting out just because Rizzo struggled with the Padres.

 

Well, there is one aspect that is slightly promising, as much as I hate the comparison

 

After the horrid start with lots of swings and misses, Rizzo made mechanical adjustments (he has actually done this successfully twice now so he is clearly some sort of swing savant), implemented them at Iowa for a few weeks and then came up and did much better.

[Sammy Sofa]

After the horrid start with lots of swings and misses, Rizzo made mechanical adjustments (he has actually done this successfully twice now so he is clearly some sort of swing savant), implemented them at Iowa for a few weeks and then came up and did much better.

 

I thought there was talk that Baez had been working on similar mechanical adjustments, but not much of anything looked different to me, but I'm hardly the person to know for sure.

[treebird]

it is also important to remember that rizzo is magic and used his big, juicy brain to decide to strike out less in the major leagues than he did in the minors. we should probably not ascribe that development path to anyone else, least of all a godless hacker like baez.

[SouthSideRyan]

They're really only "close" if you're literally only comparing contact rates their initial forays in the big leagues.

 

That was the comparison I was making. For as much as people are burying Javy for his contact rate he still had a z-contact rate equivalent to rookie Rizzo. Or compare it to whoever, an 80% z-contact is not bad as a rookie, and to me is a bright spot that is worth acknowledging.

 

It's just a really narrow comparison that really doesn't do much of anything to justify the general comparisons to Rizzo people still insist on trotting out just because Rizzo struggled with the Padres.

 

Well, there is one aspect that is slightly promising, as much as I hate the comparison

 

After the horrid start with lots of swings and misses, Rizzo made mechanical adjustments (he has actually done this successfully twice now so he is clearly some sort of swing savant), implemented them at Iowa for a few weeks and then came up and did much better.

 

If it came about because of an instructor in our system, I'd feel a lot better.

[Sammy Sofa]

it is also important to remember that rizzo is magic and used his big, juicy brain to decide to strike out less in the major leagues than he did in the minors. we should probably not ascribe that development path to anyone else, least of all a godless hacker like baez.

 

Rizzo also uses awesome new future steroids, which is why his face is all swole like Jerry Lewis and [expletive].

[Guest]

Baez will still adjust and be awesome you faithless heathens.

[Sammy Sofa]

Soon enough sanity will be restored and we'll look back at a man with an MLB logo tattooed on his neck and laugh and laugh and laugh.

[Guest]

Baez will still adjust and be awesome you faithless heathens.

 

i just want him to adjust and be OK because he's really fun to watch so there's added value there

[Guest]

Soon enough sanity will be restored and we'll look back at a man with an MLB logo tattooed on his neck and laugh and laugh and laugh.

 

that's not fun or cool man wtf