Cubs 2015 #15 Prospect

[Clem Fandango]

That's fair, craig, and I tend to agree with your points.

 

I think it's less about a step back than it is the absence of a step forward. As a big guy with a weak defensive profile, the expectation was that he would be carried by his bat. His bat has been solid, but I think most people expected a bit more power out of it by 22. The absurd level of the power bats in the Cubs system over the past couple of years may have skewed expectations a bit as well.

 

Well he'll be 22 this season. If he doesn't hit for more power then I suppose it's a cause for more concern, IMO. And I agree with the skewed expectations bit.

 

On Vogelbach, in all honesty, I would have him above at least one guy on the list, and maybe up to 3. I haven't made an actual list in ages, but glancing at the names, I think he'd go mid-teens for me. I simply think Caratini is being slept on a bit on this list (still not sold Zagunis should be ahead of him when Caratini is, by most accounts, more polished as a receiver), and Sands profile is very good for a lefty arm.

 

To me Caratini is strictly a defensive catcher who offers little offensive upside. I'll admit I'm unclear on how Zagunis profiles as a receiver, but while Zagunis only smacked 2 homers in his first taste of the minors, he did hit 16 doubles and 3 triples while stealing 16 of 18 and drawing 42 walks in a 57 game stretch which, to me, is pretty impressive and why I selected him in the round he went in (actually picked him earlier). A speed/patience combo behind the plate is pretty rare to see these days, if ever. Just for fun, I did some research to see the number of catchers who have stolen 20 bases or more since baseball began. 16. Only 16 catchers have ever stolen 20 or more. 13 if you're just counting individuals and not seasons and you exclude the times Schalk, Kendall, and Biggio did it more than once.

 

Rk            Player SB OPS+   G Year Age  Tm  PA HR
1        John Wathan 36   86 121 1982  32 KCR 502  3
2         Ray Schalk 30   84 129 1916  23 CHW 472  0
3       Jack OConnor 29  139 121 1890  24 COL 496  2
4      Jason Kendall 26  131 149 1998  24 PIT 627 12
5     Ivan Rodriguez 25  125 144 1999  27 TEX 630 35
6       Craig Biggio 25   93 150 1990  24 HOU 621  4
7       John Stearns 25  121 143 1978  26 NYM 563 15
8       Johnny Kling 25  112 115 1902  26 CHC 477  0
9         Ray Schalk 24  100 136 1914  21 CHW 459  0
10      Johnny Kling 23  118 132 1903  27 CHC 524  3
11     Jason Kendall 22  124 152 2000  26 PIT 678 14
12    Russell Martin 21  116 151 2007  24 LAD 620 19
13      Craig Biggio 21  114 134 1989  23 HOU 509 13
14      B.J. Surhoff 21   71 139 1988  23 MIL 541  5
15   Benito Santiago 21  111 146 1987  22 SDP 572 18
16         Red Dooin 20   86 133 1908  29 PHI 468  0

 

If Zagunis can be a decent receiver, he could be a pretty interesting commodity. To me Caratini has backup catcher written all over him, and that's fine. Teams need that kind of catcher, but I just don't see any offensive upside with him. He'll be what David Ross is now, IMO.

[toonsterwu]

Logan, I admit, I'm higher on Caratini's offensive potential than most, but your statement strikes me as odd. If anything, most think Caratini has decent offensive skills, and the questions are still revolving whether or not he can build upon the positive improvements this year that he made defensively. The question, offensively, is whether or not Caratini has enough power. I think so (I would point out pre-draft reports that suggested power potential (not everyone was in agreement, admittedly, but the general feeling, pre-draft was that he had around average power).)

 

What's happened since he hit the professional ranks is that the power has become a bigger question (general feeling seems to be he has good gap power, but he might never tap fully into the raw power ... I haven't followed that closely this year, but the gist I got was that, while he gets loft, his swing gets a bit long at times ... Kiley's grades at fangraphs suggests this as well, as I look at it right now ... says 20 for Game Power, 45 for Raw Power). On the flip side, his defense has made enough improvements that the general report seems to be an increased belief that he can stick behind the plate. He still has the bat speed, he still has a good approach (admittedly, it's not Zagunis good, although I would point out in Rookie ball last year, Caratini walked 16% of the time, similar to what Zagunis did in rookie ball ... to be clear, I think Zagunis probably is a more disciplined/patient hitter with a more level swing) and most believe he'll hit for enough average. If he has average pop ... that's a pretty dang good catching prospect. If he has below average power, that's still a decent catching prospect.

 

Caratini posted a pedestrian ISOP overall last year, but I would point out that, while with the Braves, his road numbers were .279/.367/.455, showing a very healthy amount of power (first one to say SS issue, but hey, people are getting excited over Zagunis pop from a very small sample size ... to be clear, I think Zagunis has some more pop as well). To the best of my recollection, Rome (his home park with the Braves) saps power.

 

This isn't to say I think he's a lock to succeed or anything. Again, the profile just seems very solid, although I'll be the first one to say there seems to be some variance on reviews for Caratini (some say strong arm, others say superb release, average arm ... I think it's probably somewhere in b/w, as he seemed to go show good arm strength at 3rd from the few clips I recall seeing).

[Some Guy]

I gave my 2nd vote to Caratini (same as last round), but truly I'd rank Sands above him. But Sands is already getting plenty of votes and I just want Caratini's vote total to reflect that he's at least similar in value to Zagunis, if not better.

 

Caratini is a year younger, a level ahead (with a pretty nice OBP too), was drafted higher, and currently seems a much better bet to stick at catcher. Zagunis's speed is nice, but it's perhaps wasted at C and a lot less notable if he's an OF.

 

PS: If Vogelbach and Sands are tied this round I will switch a vote to Sands. And hopefully Vogelbach can continue coming up short for another couple rounds (Rivero, Caratini).

Edited March 23, 2015 by Some Guy

[Guest]

Caratini is only 6 months younger, and both he and Zagunis finished the year at Kane County. They were also only drafted 13 spots apart(65th v. 78th).

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Montero

Ross

Castillo

Lopez

Schwarber

Zagunis

Caratini

 

At least one of these names will be traded and most likely, at least one will shift positions. But I can't imagine we ever had depth at the dish like this.

[Guest]

Montero

Ross

Castillo

Lopez

Schwarber

Zagunis

Caratini

 

At least one of these names will be traded and most likely, at least one will shift positions. But I can't imagine we ever had depth at the dish like this.

Theo and Co know how to hoard precious commodities. #valuemultiplier

[craig]

Caratini played last year at age 20. Too early to know what he will or won't become, either offensively or defensively. Perhaps some solid HR-game-power will grow over time, but hardly certain. Perhaps with experience, coaching, and practice, he'll emerge as a legit defensive catcher, but hardly certain. The combination of his actual hitting (good K/W splits, some hints of possible power) combined with the scouting reports (some projection of possible power) justify hopes that he may become a pretty good offensive catcher.

 

My impression is that he's got a chance to be solid in a lot of areas, but outstanding in none? May become a decent defensive catcher, but no talk of extraordinary. Might mature into some HR's, but not tons. He looks like a good hitter, but not amazing.

 

From the age and stats side, I totally understand some people ranking him ahead of Zagunis. He's somewhat younger, he's a level ahead, and his catching defense is definitely more advanced, particularly in the catch-and-throw aspect.

 

I rank Zagunis ahead, myself. My sense is that the Cubs scouts and farm people are very excited about Zagunis's hitting, more so than about Caratini's. We'll see how it goes this year. Maybe the Cubs don't see it that way, or maybe they're wrong even if they do, time will tell. This season should tell a lot for both prospects, I think. Would be awesome if both make good progress defensively, and both hit really well too.

[Bull]

Not sure who Rivero and Sands are, unless this refers to the pitchers by those names. But, then, I thought we were voting for prospects, not pitchers.

[toonsterwu]

Not sure who Rivero and Sands are, unless this refers to the pitchers by those names. But, then, I thought we were voting for prospects.

 

Okay, you got me ... why aren't rookie-eligible players, and in Sands case, a guy who is many years away from the bigs, considered prospects?

 

Ah, I see you edited that to say pitchers. Still, even if you want to discount value because TINSTAAP, they still have value of some fashion.

[Bull]

Not sure who Rivero and Sands are, unless this refers to the pitchers by those names. But, then, I thought we were voting for prospects.

 

Okay, you got me ... why aren't rookie-eligible players, and in Sands case, a guy who is many years away from the bigs, considered prospects?

 

Ah, I see you edited that to say pitchers. Still, even if you want to discount value because TINSTAAP, they still have value of some fashion.

No such thing.