Mock Expansion Draft

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BTBS did a mock expansion draft, which was a lot of fun to read: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/11/6130703/the-2014-beyond-the-box-score-expansion-draft

 

There's also team-specific rundowns too.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/13/6135647/the-wholly-fictional-2015-portland-beavers-expansion-draft-rosters-depth-charts

http://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/assets/5001084/portlandhitters_medium.png

http://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/assets/5001092/portlandpitchers_medium.png

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/12/6133907/introducing-the-expansion-draft-charlotte-divide-baseball-mlb

http://i.imgur.com/kxJVI9L.png

http://i.imgur.com/5fwerTr.png

 

Some of the individual draft/protection decisions I didn't think were good/realistic, but it's nitpicky for a really fun exercise.

[bukie]

Part of me wishes they did two teams, because MLB would never do a single expansion.

[UMFan83]

Part of me wishes they did two teams, because MLB would never do a single expansion.

 

They did. There is a Charlotte franchise too

[champaignchris]

I find it interesting that despite the fact that the recent realignment which awkwardly put an odd number of teams in each league practically cries out for expansion, there's been no buzz about possible expansion at all.

 

Baseball expansion interests me. It's different from other sports. More simple, less nuanced. More than the other major sports, baseball relies heavily on local attendance and local television/radio contracts. That means more than any other sport, teams gravitate towards the areas where there are more butts to put in seats and eyeballs to put on tv screens. There isn't an MLB team in Green Bay, New Orleans, or Oklahoma City, and there won't be any time soon. It's not about getting 65,000 people there 8 weekends a year; it's about having 20,000 people there 81 times a year, often in the middle of the week.

 

So, the cities in North America with the most butts and eyeballs:

 

1. Mexico City: By some counts, the largest city in the world. Yes, there's a lot of poor people. There are also a whole Hell of a lot of rich people. La Ciudad is too big, with too much money for it to not eventually have an MLB franchise. It's just a question of when Mexico can have its political and economic houses in order well enough for Baseball to make the move. Don't know if it will be in 10 years or 50, but it will eventually happen.

 

2. Montreal: Easily the largest US or Canadian city without a team. Like Mexico City, it's just too big not to eventually have a team. In this case, the politics and the economics aren't the impediment. It's a fanbase that feels it got hosed by the MLB, and the MLB thinking that the problem with the Expos was the French-talking hockey fans instead of the relentlessly incompetent ownership. Personally, I think a solid ownership group with a good stadium plan will make this happen.

 

3. Charlotte, Portland, Vancouver, Orlando, San Antonio and Sacramento: With likelihood in roughly that order. All roughly the same sized metro areas. At least one, if not both of the next expansion franchises will be in these cities. Charlotte and Portland have the edge because they're farthest from an exiting franchise. While these are all safe bets, I'm not sure why you'd volunteer to be the next Cincinnati or Pittsburgh. It's hard enough to be an expansion franchise without being an expansion franchise in the smallest market in the league.

 

4. San Juan, Puerto Rico and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic: The largest Caribbean cities in the most stable countries of the Caribbean. In terms of size, these metro areas are actually larger than the previous group. They just have a bit less money. San Juan, due to its being integrated into the U.S. economy, would be the favorite. You can add Havana, Cuba to this list if the political climate between the US and Cuba ever thaws.

 

5. Smaller U.S. city: Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Nashville, etc. Starting to get into the area of fewer than 2 million people in a metro area. Can you actually run a baseball team when you require on average, every man, woman and child in the area to each attend a game to make a profit? Kansas City, with a good team, is struggling to get 2 million in attendance this year. Can you imagine the problems a team in a metro area half that size (Buffalo or Salt Lake City, for example) would have in getting attendance?

 

6. A third NYC or LA team. A second Philly or Boston team. At some point it makes more sense to put a third team in a metro area of 18 million or a second team in a metro area of 6 million than to try to get a first team in a smaller metro area. Obviously, the existing teams will have a problem with that - see the ugliness going down between the Orioles and Nationals as an example.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hudson County, NJ needs a team.

[treebird]

i say mexico city as long as the first home series is against the cardinals so all their players get kidnapped before the league realizes this is a horrible idea

[rocket]

i say mexico city as long as the first home series is against the cardinals so all their players get kidnapped before the league realizes this is a horrible idea

 

@BestFansStLouis would be amazing

[apete6]

Long term, Mexico City and Montreal would be excellent. Put Montreal in the NL East and have their fans in a blood feud with DC and put Mexico City in the AL West and establish "rivalries" with Texas and Houston.

 

That 2nd tier of cities listed would be good to use as leverage for relocations.

 

Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic just don't have enough income to support teams any time in the foreseeable future.

 

I don't see any of the other options (smaller US cities or new team in an established market) ever happening for multiple reasons.

[imb]

baseball in mexico city would be a god damn disaster

[Clem Fandango]

New Orleans is big enough for a team, and it's a city that is fiercely loyal to their sports franchises and their reach extends into surrounding states.

[apete6]

baseball in mexico city would be a [expletive] disaster

 

For now, absolutely. Long term, I find it hard to believe it doesn't get better there,but possibly not good enough to support a MLB team. The environmental concerns, though, could force it to an inside stadium. Attracting free agents, however, would be the main issue, wouldn't it?

[jersey cubs fan]

New Orleans is big enough for a team, and it's a city that is fiercely loyal to their sports franchises and their reach extends into surrounding states.

 

surrounding states don't really help for attendance on 81 game seasons.

[SouthSideRyan]

Portland too small?

[Clem Fandango]

New Orleans is big enough for a team, and it's a city that is fiercely loyal to their sports franchises and their reach extends into surrounding states.

 

surrounding states don't really help for attendance on 81 game seasons.

 

I'm speaking in terms of fan support, not ticket sales. Even then, the gulf coast is easily navigable. Mobile is only 2 hours away from New Orleans. Gulfport/Biloxi, MS only an hour. And they got Baton Rouge not too far away. New Orleans is a day trip for people on the gulf coast. When people plan to go to Braves games they need to plan out well in advance and secure lodging and you spend, at minimum, a half day travelling. There would be lots of people taking the drive over to go see a baseball game and driving back after in New Orleans. They do it already for Saints games, and sure it wouldn't be every home game for a baseaball team because there's so many games, but it also wouldn't be one game a year like many have to treat a Braves game, which is the closest ML team that people support.

[jersey cubs fan]

New Orleans is big enough for a team, and it's a city that is fiercely loyal to their sports franchises and their reach extends into surrounding states.

 

surrounding states don't really help for attendance on 81 game seasons.

 

I'm speaking in terms of fan support, not ticket sales. Even then, the gulf coast is easily navigable. Mobile is only 2 hours away from New Orleans. Gulfport/Biloxi, MS only an hour. And they got Baton Rouge not too far away. New Orleans is a day trip for people on the gulf coast. When people plan to go to Braves games they need to plan out well in advance and secure lodging and you spend, at minimum, a half day travelling. There would be lots of people taking the drive over to go see a baseball game and driving back after in New Orleans. They do it already for Saints games, and sure it wouldn't be every home game for a baseaball team because there's so many games, but it also wouldn't be one game a year like many have to treat a Braves game, which is the closest ML team that people support.

 

Atlanta is the 9th largest metro area in the US, New Orleans is 45th. It would be a horrible spot for major league baseball.

[apete6]

New Orleans is big enough for a team, and it's a city that is fiercely loyal to their sports franchises and their reach extends into surrounding states.

 

surrounding states don't really help for attendance on 81 game seasons.

 

I'm speaking in terms of fan support, not ticket sales. Even then, the gulf coast is easily navigable. Mobile is only 2 hours away from New Orleans. Gulfport/Biloxi, MS only an hour. And they got Baton Rouge not too far away. New Orleans is a day trip for people on the gulf coast. When people plan to go to Braves games they need to plan out well in advance and secure lodging and you spend, at minimum, a half day travelling. There would be lots of people taking the drive over to go see a baseball game and driving back after in New Orleans. They do it already for Saints games, and sure it wouldn't be every home game for a baseaball team because there's so many games, but it also wouldn't be one game a year like many have to treat a Braves game, which is the closest ML team that people support.

 

Atlanta is the 9th largest metro area in the US, New Orleans is 45th. It would be a horrible spot for major league baseball.

 

Yeah, I love New Orleans as much as anyone who has never lived there, but it would be a disaster. There is very little business community (impacts suite purchases, etc...), the Pelicans have limited fan support and the freaking Saints were exploring moving to San Antonio before Katrina made the owner feel bad and keep the team there. New Orleans is a great place and their LSU and recent Saints fan support is excellent, but it is not a very good candidate for a MLB franchise.

[Clem Fandango]

New Orleans is big enough for a team, and it's a city that is fiercely loyal to their sports franchises and their reach extends into surrounding states.

 

surrounding states don't really help for attendance on 81 game seasons.

 

I'm speaking in terms of fan support, not ticket sales. Even then, the gulf coast is easily navigable. Mobile is only 2 hours away from New Orleans. Gulfport/Biloxi, MS only an hour. And they got Baton Rouge not too far away. New Orleans is a day trip for people on the gulf coast. When people plan to go to Braves games they need to plan out well in advance and secure lodging and you spend, at minimum, a half day travelling. There would be lots of people taking the drive over to go see a baseball game and driving back after in New Orleans. They do it already for Saints games, and sure it wouldn't be every home game for a baseaball team because there's so many games, but it also wouldn't be one game a year like many have to treat a Braves game, which is the closest ML team that people support.

 

Atlanta is the 9th largest metro area in the US, New Orleans is 45th. It would be a horrible spot for major league baseball.

 

Yeah, I love New Orleans as much as anyone who has never lived there, but it would be a disaster. There is very little business community (impacts suite purchases, etc...), the Pelicans have limited fan support and the freaking Saints were exploring moving to San Antonio before Katrina made the owner feel bad and keep the team there. New Orleans is a great place and their LSU and recent Saints fan support is excellent, but it is not a very good candidate for a MLB franchise.

 

Fair enough, but as someone who lives in the area and witnesses the immense support the city gets, I happen to think it would work out.

[champaignchris]

The greater New Orleans metro area, which includes Hammond, Metarie, Picayune, etc. has 1.4 million people in it. That's 42nd in the United States and roughly half the number of people in the Portland and Orlando areas.

[Clem Fandango]

The greater New Orleans metro area, which includes Hammond, Metarie, Picayune, etc. has 1.4 million people in it. That's 42nd in the United States and roughly half the number of people in the Portland and Orlando areas.

 

Miami is the 8th largest metro area in the country. Population does not equal ticket sales.

[jersey cubs fan]

The greater New Orleans metro area, which includes Hammond, Metarie, Picayune, etc. has 1.4 million people in it. That's 42nd in the United States and roughly half the number of people in the Portland and Orlando areas.

 

Miami is the 8th largest metro area in the country. Population does not equal ticket sales.

 

Lack of population, and financial strength, can very easily equal lack of ticket sales.

[Guest]

The greater New Orleans metro area, which includes Hammond, Metarie, Picayune, etc. has 1.4 million people in it. That's 42nd in the United States and roughly half the number of people in the Portland and Orlando areas.

 

Miami is the 8th largest metro area in the country. Population does not equal ticket sales.

 

Large cities with crap attendance doesn't make it any more likely that there will be small cities with great attendance. There are only 4 MLB cities in metro areas with < 2.7 million people(Cincy, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, KC), and they are not cities that draw well historically. New Orleans is at least 600k smaller than even the smallest of those four.

[Clem Fandango]

The greater New Orleans metro area, which includes Hammond, Metarie, Picayune, etc. has 1.4 million people in it. That's 42nd in the United States and roughly half the number of people in the Portland and Orlando areas.

 

Miami is the 8th largest metro area in the country. Population does not equal ticket sales.

 

Large cities with crap attendance doesn't make it any more likely that there will be small cities with great attendance.

 

I know, which is why using population as a reason for starting a franchise in a city is a foolish notion. Tampa is a Top 20 population region and they've been an excellent ball club for about half a decade now and still can't draw good attendance figures. So if population doesn't matter, and a good team doesn't matter, what does to that god forsaken state? Is putting yet another team in Florida where people obviously don't care about baseball a wise move? It's hard enough enticing new fans to a team in your area when you've spent your whole life rooting for another club, and most of the people in Florida either grew up caring about the Braves or transplanted from the north and are Yankee and Red Sox fans.

 

A place like Portland is perfect cause it's smack dab between the bay area and Seattle so it's kind of a neutral zone where if they got a baseball team they'd likely support the hell out of it because they finally have something to call their own. I just happen to think New Orleans could be the same way is all.

[Guest]

Well yeah, there's definitely reasons Orlando would be a bad idea, one of them being that they're barely big enough a metro area(which is where the comparison to NO falls down). There are definitely others though, like you mention.

 

Personally, Montreal, Portland, and Charlotte would be the 3 most obvious candidates. Whichever 2 could get the best owner/stadium/TV arrangement would be the best bets, IMO.

[jersey cubs fan]

I know, which is why using population as a reason for starting a franchise in a city is a foolish notion.

 

So if population doesn't matter, and a good team doesn't matter, what does to that god forsaken state? .

 

Population does matter. Florida is a lost cause for just about anything and that is besides the point. But population absolutely matters.

[Guest]

Well yeah, there's definitely reasons Orlando would be a bad idea, one of them being that they're barely big enough a metro area(which is where the comparison to NO falls down). There are definitely others though, like you mention.

 

Personally, Montreal, Portland, and Charlotte would be the 3 most obvious candidates. Whichever 2 could get the best owner/stadium/TV arrangement would be the best bets, IMO.

I think a third team in LA or NY/NJ would make most sense after Montreal.