2015 lineup or no?

[Guest]

No, you do not take lesser value in a trade simply because what you're trading away has a more able replacement. The only way that would make sense is if you could not acquire the same value for less given up(or trade away the same value for a greater return). Neither are true, most especially in the offseason.

 

EDIT: For a more concrete example, let's say I want something for 50 cents at a vending machine that only takes exact change, and all I have are $1 bills.

 

- If this vending machine is in the middle of nowhere and there's only one person within sight, I *might* give them a dollar for only 50 cents to make sure I can make a purchase

 

- If this vending machine is in the middle of a busy convenience store that also has an ATM, I'm going to want 4 quarters in return for my dollar when making an exchange

 

This is the second situation, not the first.

I don't think it's at all like that. There are a lot more variables involved than your vending machine thingy. It's a really terrible and lazy allusion. Plus, what do you mean by value? Short-term? Long-term, value as in bargain? value as in fits a need? Value is a simple and framed term the way you're using it.

 

I mean, a more apt analogy would be if you had a dollar at a whorehouse and had to choose between an exotic hooker that is available one night and one night only, or two hookers that look exactly like your wife.

 

Over the next 4 years it's a pretty good bet that Hamels will out-WAR Castro and he's something we do not have and cannot possibly hope to have a shot at all the time.

 

But I'm tired of arguing.

Edited August 10, 2014 by Stannis

[Guest]

This ignores the fact that Hamels is post-prime, already has arm issues, and has a manager who has tried to actively ruin his arm.

 

i would quibble with these points. hamels has never suffered a serious arm injury, and his issue in spring training was shoulder tendonitis. he had an MRI that came back clean, so the problem was treated with rest and anti-inflammatories. it didn't take him long to get back to full health and he has pitched really well this year. i've had shoulder tendonitis in the past (from swimming), and that's not a major concern - not like the dreaded forearm strain or fraying of the rotator cuff. it's not a structural issue. both scherzer (2012) and lester (2011) have had minor arm isues in the past, so i wouldn't say that hamels is at any greater risk because of minor spring training shoulder tendonitis.

 

as for hamels being worked hard, he's had only 7 starts in which he's thrown 110+ pitches, compared to lester 13 for lester and scherzer. sandberg is a lousy manager, but hamels' workload hasn't been too irresponsible, aside from a couple of starts.

It's no use. Hamels being damaged goods feeds their narrative of simplicity.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

 

I mean, a more apt analogy would be if you had a dollar at a whorehouse and had to choose between an exotic hooker that is available one night and one night only, or two hookers that look exactly like your wife.

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/albundy_shock.gif

[Rob]

I don't think it's at all like that. There are a lot more variables involved than your vending machine thingy. It's a really terrible and lazy allusion. Plus, what do you mean by value? Short-term? Long-term, value as in bargain? value as in fits a need? Value is a simple and framed term the way you're using it.

 

I mean, a more apt analogy would be if you had a dollar at a whorehouse and had to choose between an exotic hooker that is available one night and one night only, or two hookers that look exactly like your wife.

 

Over the next 4 years it's a pretty good bet that Hamels will out-WAR Castro and he's something we do not have and cannot possibly hope to have a shot at all the time.

 

But I'm tired of arguing.

 

Imagine your whorehouse has triplets who all usually charge $1. And you brought that wrinkled dollar bill with you.

 

Trading Castro for Hamels is like picking the triplet who is on sale for $0.80 tonight, but refuses to make change.

 

Trading Castro+ for Stanton is your exotic hooker who is available one night only. You're out in your car digging under the seat trying to come up with enough extra change for that one.

[Guest]

I can get on board with that, but what if the 80 cent hooker triplet is the [expletive] of a lifetime and does something the other non-triplets don't, will make change, something her her sisters dont do, which is exactly what you need so you don't kill yourself?

[Rob]

I can get on board with that, but what if the 80 cent hooker triplet is the [expletive] of a lifetime and does something the other non-triplets don't, will make change, something her her sisters dont do, which is exactly what you need so you don't kill yourself?

 

Yeah, well the other two triplets will double up on you like you've always dreamed, and one a has a great hookup for weed.

[Guest]

Over the next 4 years it's a pretty good bet that Hamels will out-WAR Castro and he's something we do not have and cannot possibly hope to have a shot at all the time.

You know I'm not over the top on a projection for Castro. Here is the list of pitchers that I would project to more WAR over the next four years:

 

Kershaw

Felix

 

Yeah, that's pretty much it.

[Guest]

Over the next 4 years it's a pretty good bet that Hamels will out-WAR Castro and he's something we do not have and cannot possibly hope to have a shot at all the time.

You know I'm not over the top on a projection for Castro. Here is the list of pitchers that I would project to more WAR over the next four years:

 

Kershaw

Felix

 

Yeah, that's pretty much it.

That's kind of a weird stance to take.

[Guest]

Over the next 4 years it's a pretty good bet that Hamels will out-WAR Castro and he's something we do not have and cannot possibly hope to have a shot at all the time.

You know I'm not over the top on a projection for Castro. Here is the list of pitchers that I would project to more WAR over the next four years:

 

Kershaw

Felix

 

Yeah, that's pretty much it.

That's kind of a weird stance to take.

Castro is a 23 year old SS who will already have 3 3-WAR seasons under his belt at the end of this year. He is a very safe bet to maintain that level of production over the next four years and is a pretty good bet to get to 14-16 during that stretch.

 

Here is the list of pitchers who have exceeded 12 WAR over the past four years...

 

Name	WAR
Clayton Kershaw	23.3
Felix Hernandez	22.6
Justin Verlander	21.4
Cliff Lee	18
Max Scherzer	17.9
David Price	17.4
Anibal Sanchez	17.1
Cole Hamels	16.1
Jon Lester	16
James Shields	15.4
Chris Sale	15.3
Doug Fister	14.5
Zack Greinke	14.2
Yu Darvish	14.1
CC Sabathia	14
Adam Wainwright	13.9
Madison Bumgarner	13.7
Jordan Zimmermann	13.6
Gio Gonzalez	13.3
Jered Weaver	12.1

I'm not willing to bet on any of these pitchers maintaining their current level of production over four years. So we have to look at the guys who will put up enough WAR over the next three years to exceed Castro's four.

 

• Kershaw and Felix are great bets to do so.
  
• Verlander is already in steep decline

 

Nobody else accrues WAR at a fast enough pace to overcome the attrition rate for pitchers vs Hitters. The bottom line is that it basically comes down to "screw pitchers".

[Guest]

How much better can Castro get when he's one of many decent hitters in the line up, instead of being one of two guys that can be counted on for production?

[SouthSideRyan]

Wait, you wouldn't trade Castro for Sale, Darvish, Bumgarner or Greinke?

[mul21]

Wait, you wouldn't trade Castro for Sale, Darvish, Bumgarner or Greinke?

 

Darvish was going to be my first pick on that list considering he's gotten to that number in ~2.5 seasons. I think Sale's arm may fall off and really don't have an opinion on the other 2 either way. I'd probably add Wainwright to that list if I hadn't just heard about how far down his velocity is.

[Guest]

How much better can Castro get when he's one of many decent hitters in the line up, instead of being one of two guys that can be counted on for production?

He'll continue to be a guy whose .750 OPS at a position of value is appreciated if not celebrated.

[Guest]

How much better can Castro get when he's one of many decent hitters in the line up, instead of being one of two guys that can be counted on for production?

He'll continue to be a guy whose .750 OPS at a position of value is appreciated if not celebrated.

 

A .750 OPS these days, in general, is a lot better than you're making it out to be (let alone for a SS).

[muntjack]

I'd like to know exactly what a .800 OPS in 2004 would translate to in this environment.

[Guest]

I'd like to know exactly what a .800 OPS in 2004 would translate to in this environment.

 

Roughly .750, give or take a few points.

[dew1679666265]

How much better can Castro get when he's one of many decent hitters in the line up, instead of being one of two guys that can be counted on for production?

He'll continue to be a guy whose .750 OPS at a position of value is appreciated if not celebrated.

 

His current .757 OPS would make him the 10th best 3B in the majors offensively. He'd be 16 points away from Sandoval and Carpenter for 8th best. A .750 OPS would put him 12th, just behind Valbuena. I would guess his defense would be pretty solidly plus as well.

 

And that's with Castro being the 2nd youngest player on that list (behind Rendon).

[Guest]

How much better can Castro get when he's one of many decent hitters in the line up, instead of being one of two guys that can be counted on for production?

He'll continue to be a guy whose .750 OPS at a position of value is appreciated if not celebrated.

 

His current .757 OPS would make him the 10th best 3B in the majors offensively. He'd be 16 points away from Sandoval and Carpenter for 8th best. A .750 OPS would put him 12th, just behind Valbuena. I would guess his defense would be pretty solidly plus as well.

 

And that's with Castro being the 2nd youngest player on that list (behind Rendon).

 

UNACCEPTABLE

[Guest]

How much better can Castro get when he's one of many decent hitters in the line up, instead of being one of two guys that can be counted on for production?

He'll continue to be a guy whose .750 OPS at a position of value is appreciated if not celebrated.

 

His current .757 OPS would make him the 10th best 3B in the majors offensively. He'd be 16 points away from Sandoval and Carpenter for 8th best. A .750 OPS would put him 12th, just behind Valbuena. I would guess his defense would be pretty solidly plus as well.

 

And that's with Castro being the 2nd youngest player on that list (behind Rendon).

 

THAT'S WHAT I JUST [expletive] SAID, HE'LL BE APPRECIATED IF NOT CELEBRATED

[dew1679666265]

THAT'S WHAT I JUST [expletive] SAID, HE'LL BE APPRECIATED IF NOT CELEBRATED

 

Considering your continued instance that he's nowhere near as good as other 3B options the Cubs have, I took that as sarcasm. I was simply trying to point out that Castro's offense right now is something to be appreciated and celebrated.

[Guest]

THAT'S WHAT I JUST [expletive] SAID, HE'LL BE APPRECIATED IF NOT CELEBRATED

 

Considering your continued instance that he's nowhere near as good as other 3B options the Cubs have, I took that as sarcasm. I was simply trying to point out that Castro's offense right now is something to be appreciated and celebrated.

No, Tulo is something to be celebrated.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, so long as you're not setting your standrds too high or anything.

[Guest]

Well, so long as you're not setting your standrds too high or anything.

Go have a celebration for yourself over your can of mushroom soup

[Sammy Sofa]

I used mushroom soup in my stroganoff tonight.

[Guest]

Now that is cause for celebration. Tulo is stroganoff