Javy called up to Cubs

[Guest]

Baez really is going to have the most ridiculous line to end the year. Like high teens in home runs and almost 100 strikeouts in a third of a season.

 

I'm also warming to the idea that if Baez ends up long term at 2B, it will almost be impossible for him to NOT be a productive player. He should be at least average defensively there - probably better than average in reality - but the offensive bar is so low for 2B that even if he is striking out 200 times and has an OBP of like .280, he will be an asset because he is hitting 30-40 home runs a year.

 

You think he'll have 10+ HRs in the last 33 games? I don't think so. I think teams will get enough film by the end of the season and start throwing to the areas he can't lay off. Maybe he makes an adjustment and get a dozen more but I think the most likely scenario is he keeps hitting in the low .200s but doesn't have as good of a HR-to-hit ratio. I think he'll end around 12 HRs which would still be ridiculous for 1/3 of a season.

 

Probably no. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-pitchers-are-pitching-to-javier-baez/

Edited August 24, 2014 by Castro's Spray Chart

[Guest]

Baez really is going to have the most ridiculous line to end the year. Like high teens in home runs and almost 100 strikeouts in a third of a season.

 

I'm also warming to the idea that if Baez ends up long term at 2B, it will almost be impossible for him to NOT be a productive player. He should be at least average defensively there - probably better than average in reality - but the offensive bar is so low for 2B that even if he is striking out 200 times and has an OBP of like .280, he will be an asset because he is hitting 30-40 home runs a year.

 

You think he'll have 10+ HRs in the last 33 games? I don't think so. I think teams will get enough film by the end of the season and start throwing to the areas he can't lay off. Maybe he makes an adjustment and get a dozen more but I think the most likely scenario is he keeps hitting in the low .200s but doesn't have as good of a HR-to-hit ratio. I think he'll end around 12 HRs which would still be ridiculous for 1/3 of a season.

 

Probably no. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-pitchers-are-pitching-to-javier-baez/

 

yep. he was born with film

[Guest]

Most of Javy's dingers have been with no men on base - and maybe that's why he's batting 2nd. If he's 5th or 6th with men on, and with his high K rate - teams might pitch him differently. From the Cubs perspective, if he's K'ing too much with men on, they might feel there's too much pressure on a young player.

Meh, it's more the fact that they want Rizzo hitting behind him so he'll see a lot of strikes. If/when he starts laying off the bad pitches he'll then get hot again and his K% will go down, JUST LIKE HE ALWAYS DOES.

 

Protection is a myth. It's to get him a lot of PA's mainly.

 

I wouldn't be at all shocked if Ricky thinks having Rizzo there helps, too, though.

 

As for the pitching differently stuff in the first post, lol...if you think that, you haven't been paying attention.

[Clem Fandango]

Baez really is going to have the most ridiculous line to end the year. Like high teens in home runs and almost 100 strikeouts in a third of a season.

 

I'm also warming to the idea that if Baez ends up long term at 2B, it will almost be impossible for him to NOT be a productive player. He should be at least average defensively there - probably better than average in reality - but the offensive bar is so low for 2B that even if he is striking out 200 times and has an OBP of like .280, he will be an asset because he is hitting 30-40 home runs a year.

 

You think he'll have 10+ HRs in the last 33 games?

 

I mentioned this elsewhere, but among all qualified and unqualified 2B with home runs, Javier Baez leads the majors with an 11.1 AB/HR rate. The #1 qualified 2B is Neil Walker with a 22.9 rate. He's hitting a home run at a little more than twice the rate as the qualified MLB 2B leader in AB/HR. Now, 11.1 is really low, but with Javy's power it's not unreasonable to think he could have one around 15. It's very reasonable that he could reach 15+ homers by the end of the season.

 

And just for fun, if Javy's 11.1 was his full season mark, that would rank him 5th in all of MLB if this were 2001.

 

Also, FWIW, Rizzo's AB/HR this season is 16.5, good for 7th in all of baseball. #1 is Edwin Encarnacion with 13.2

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

his contact % is somehow still getting lower. 59.7 before today.

[Clem Fandango]

Just spotted this on the MLB HR Videos page...

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/0/v35618943/baez-shows-glimpse-of-what-the-future-holds

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Just spotted this on the MLB HR Videos page...

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/0/v35618943/baez-shows-glimpse-of-what-the-future-holds

 

http://i.imgur.com/oxmdnHV.jpg

 

I love this. The bat is pointing at the 2nd baseman while the ball is halfway to him, yet he still has enough time to redirect the ball to the upperdeck.

[Guest]

the *left field* upper deck

[Stu]

his first three at bats really sucked yesterday, didn't they? in the first one in particular it seemed like he was out-thinking himself.

[Guest]

Most of his ABs really suck, I try not to think about it and jet enjoy the development. The best predictor of future performance is past performance, he's going to crush in MLB.

[Bull]

Somebody remind me how he started slow in each minor league stop.

[Guest]

Somebody remind me how he started slow in each minor league stop.

 

he started worse than this in iowa

[UMFan83]

Javy is only one behind Stanton for the league lead - in 4 K games (5-4)

[Warpticon]

Somebody remind me how he started slow in each minor league stop.

 

he started worse than this in iowa

 

A lot worse.

[Guest]

Somebody remind me how he started slow in each minor league stop.

 

he started worse than this in iowa

 

A lot worse.

 

.142/.229/.255/.484 through 28 games with 45 Ks in 118 PAs. Only had 3 HRs also.

[Bull]

Somebody remind me how he started slow in each minor league stop.

 

he started worse than this in iowa

 

A lot worse.

 

.142/.229/.255/.484 through 28 games with 45 Ks in 118 PAs. Only had 3 HRs also.

 

yes! yes!! this is what I need. More! More!

[UMFan83]

Somebody remind me how he started slow in each minor league stop.

 

he started worse than this in iowa

 

A lot worse.

 

.142/.229/.255/.484 through 28 games with 45 Ks in 118 PAs. Only had 3 HRs also.

 

Damn that's freaking bad. I looked up Javy's stats if you take away his first 3 games as a Cub (which isn't fair and selective, I'm not trying to make any points or say Javy sucks or won't improve) and those numbers still look better than that start in Iowa.

 

.181/.224/.375/.599 37K in 76 PA (51% K rate) in 18 games.

 

Then got even more selective and looked at his stats in his last 12 games, and still only just about as bad as that Iowa start.

 

.133/.204/.333/.537 27K in 49 PA (60% K rate)

 

But then if you look at his last 5 games it gets ugly.

 

2-20, 14 K, 2 HR (!!), BABIP .000 (0-4 in balls in play)

 

Can't wait for him to start kicking ass!!

[Vinestal]

What's wierd is that he will work to 2-2 or 3-2 counts then just swing at some terrible pitch out the zone. It's not like he just goes up there and swings at 3 terrible pitches in a row. I think that the fact he's working into deep counts much of the time is at least some kind of positive sign.

[Clem Fandango]

What's wierd is that he will work to 2-2 or 3-2 counts then just swing at some terrible pitch out the zone. It's not like he just goes up there and swings at 3 terrible pitches in a row. I think that the fact he's working into deep counts much of the time is at least some kind of positive sign.

 

Baez's P/PA is 4.26. Brian Dozier is the qualified leader at 2B with 4.19. The only unqualified players with the same or higher are Brooks Conrad (4.26 in 13G), Andy Parrino (4.32 in 14G), Jemile Weeks (4.54 in 3G), and Tony Abreu (4.75 in 3G).

 

4.26 would rank 7th among all qualified position players

[tfarks]

There's definite ability to take some pitches + swing and miss to elevate his P/PA.

[UMFan83]

What's wierd is that he will work to 2-2 or 3-2 counts then just swing at some terrible pitch out the zone. It's not like he just goes up there and swings at 3 terrible pitches in a row. I think that the fact he's working into deep counts much of the time is at least some kind of positive sign.

 

Baez's P/PA is 4.26. Brian Dozier is the qualified leader at 2B with 4.19. The only unqualified players with the same or higher are Brooks Conrad (4.26 in 13G), Andy Parrino (4.32 in 14G), Jemile Weeks (4.54 in 3G), and Tony Abreu (4.75 in 3G).

 

4.26 would rank 7th among all qualified position players

 

Well it takes at least 3 pitches to strike out, and Javy is striking out in over 40% of his PAs. I'm not completely discrediting that statistic, its good and he is working the count more than you'd think but I think that explains some of it.

[Clem Fandango]

What's wierd is that he will work to 2-2 or 3-2 counts then just swing at some terrible pitch out the zone. It's not like he just goes up there and swings at 3 terrible pitches in a row. I think that the fact he's working into deep counts much of the time is at least some kind of positive sign.

 

Baez's P/PA is 4.26. Brian Dozier is the qualified leader at 2B with 4.19. The only unqualified players with the same or higher are Brooks Conrad (4.26 in 13G), Andy Parrino (4.32 in 14G), Jemile Weeks (4.54 in 3G), and Tony Abreu (4.75 in 3G).

 

4.26 would rank 7th among all qualified position players

 

Well it takes at least 3 pitches to strike out, and Javy is striking out in over 40% of his PAs. I'm not completely discrediting that statistic, its good and he is working the count more than you'd think but I think that explains some of it.

 

Indeed. K'ing is probably boosting that number up, but to his credit, he has worked a lot of 2 or 3 ball counts... granted he usually strikes out when that happens, but still. As someone who hasn't really seen any of his AB's in the minors, only his box score numbers, I've always been under the impression he would hack at everything. So far his numbers seem to indicate he's being selective, though a lot of it looks like it might be a lot of guess work as opposed to smart calculated pitch selection

[Guest]

swing and miss chart

 

stop swinging at high fastballs, javy

[Derwood]

or changeups in the dirt

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I want a video of that pitch he swung at (-2, 3).