Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-25-14

[Gilby]

@bigjohnsonblog: Speedy Johnny Davis tries to bunt for a hit, Schwarber pounces on it and guns him out. He's looked good behind the dish. #cubs @KCCougars

Dreaming on future infield of:

 

C: Schwarber

1B Rizzo

2B Baez

3B Bryant

SS Castro

 

Defense be damned.

 

That would seem to clash with Bosio's ability to improve GB%.

[CubsWin]

Hannemann walked, then stole second, third and home (was a wild pitch so no play at home).

Unless the play log is wrong, Hannemann got to 3rd on the wild pitch and stole home outright. Was anyone listening/watching?

[CubsWin]

Assuming Hannemann stole home...

 

What's more impressive, Hannemann stealing home or Schwarber stealing 2nd?

[Guest]

Hannemann walked, then stole second, third and home (was a wild pitch so no play at home).

Unless the play log is wrong, Hannemann got to 3rd on the wild pitch and stole home outright. Was anyone listening/watching?

 

Sharma was there.

 

@sahadevsharma Hannemann walks, promptly steals second & gets third on a wild pitch. Takes home on another wild pitch, but he was running either way

[Guest]

Where I got it from:

 

@bigjohnsonblog: Wisconsin's battery has no idea how to stop the running game, Jake Hannemann just stole 2nd 3rd and home to give @KCCougars a 2-1 lead #cubs

 

@bigjohnsonblog: Hannemann was going on the pitch. The ball got away but he would have had it on a straight steal anyway. Trey Martin stole 5 bags last night

[mul21]

@bigjohnsonblog: Speedy Johnny Davis tries to bunt for a hit, Schwarber pounces on it and guns him out. He's looked good behind the dish. #cubs @KCCougars

Dreaming on future infield of:

 

C: Schwarber

1B Rizzo

2B Baez

3B Bryant

SS Castro

 

Defense be damned.

 

That would seem to clash with Bosio's ability to improve GB%.

 

Three of those guys are fine and it sounds like Schwarber can field a bunt, so just don't throw down and in to righties or down and away to lefties to avoid ground balls to Bryant at 3B. And he'll just hit extra HRs to make up for any fielding gaffes anyway.

[jersey cubs fan]

@bigjohnsonblog: Speedy Johnny Davis tries to bunt for a hit, Schwarber pounces on it and guns him out. He's looked good behind the dish. #cubs @KCCougars

Dreaming on future infield of:

 

C: Schwarber

1B Rizzo

2B Baez

3B Bryant

SS Castro

 

Defense be damned.

 

That would seem to clash with Bosio's ability to improve GB%.

 

How so? Schwarber isn't fielding ground balls, and the "weakest" would be Bryant who could be fine for all we know.

[jersey cubs fan]

Where I got it from:

 

@bigjohnsonblog: Wisconsin's battery has no idea how to stop the running game, Jake Hannemann just stole 2nd 3rd and home to give @KCCougars a 2-1 lead #cubs

 

@bigjohnsonblog: Hannemann was going on the pitch. The ball got away but he would have had it on a straight steal anyway. Trey Martin stole 5 bags last night

 

I get having the battery totally incapable of holding runners, but unless the pitcher was going full wind-up and the catcher was dropping every pitch I'm not sure how that makes home plate such an easy steal.

[CubsWin]

Hannemann walked, then stole second, third and home (was a wild pitch so no play at home).

Unless the play log is wrong, Hannemann got to 3rd on the wild pitch and stole home outright. Was anyone listening/watching?

 

Sharma was there.

 

@sahadevsharma Hannemann walks, promptly steals second & gets third on a wild pitch. Takes home on another wild pitch, but he was running either way

Got it, thanks Raisin.

[Gilby]

@bigjohnsonblog: Speedy Johnny Davis tries to bunt for a hit, Schwarber pounces on it and guns him out. He's looked good behind the dish. #cubs @KCCougars

Dreaming on future infield of:

 

C: Schwarber

1B Rizzo

2B Baez

3B Bryant

SS Castro

 

Defense be damned.

 

That would seem to clash with Bosio's ability to improve GB%.

 

How so? Schwarber isn't fielding ground balls, and the "weakest" would be Bryant who could be fine for all we know.

 

If Bryant ends up being fine at 3B, then yeah, it would be okay. I don't think that should be the expectation though. Mainly what I was saying is the Cubs won't have a defense be damned approach with the success Bosio is having with the pitchers ability to improve GB%.

[CubsWin]

There are quite a few players who's numbers have improved greatly since pretty bad starts to the season. All are older minor leaguers who you would expect to be able to perform at their current levels and it now looks like they are.

 

Rob Zastryzny's H/9 was 14.9% in April, 12.2% in May to 6.1% in June. BABIP evening out or improvement?

 

Juan Paniagua's BB/9 was 6.9 in April, 4.9 in May and 2.6 in June with a K/9 of 10.4. His ERA has dropped every month as well (5.17 to 3.58 to 1.04)

 

Jacob Hannemann's walk rate has gone from 6.3% in April to over 10.5% in May and again in June. He's hitting .311/.388/.500 in June.

 

Tony Zych, who I had basically written off this being his 3rd go around in AA and starting off the season poorly, is back from the dead. Of course, he's just 23 (age appropriate for AA) so perhaps I had written him off unnecessarily. Zych's ERA has gone from 8.00 in April to 3.86 to 0.79 in June. His K/BB went from 4 K/6 BB, 9 K/2 BB to 8/0 in June. Over his last 10 appearances, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked none and struck out 10 with a .204 opponent BA. He's also consistently induced groundballs with a 2.44 GO/AO over that span.

 

Each of these guys has the talent to contribute at the major league level in some way. Two months ago that didn't seem very likely. Now, at least for the moment, they look on track.

[NOLA]

There are quite a few players who's numbers have improved greatly since pretty bad starts to the season. All are older minor leaguers who you would expect to be able to perform at their current levels and it now looks like they are.

 

Rob Zastryzny's H/9 was 14.9% in April, 12.2% in May to 6.1% in June. BABIP evening out or improvement?

 

Juan Paniagua's BB/9 was 6.9 in April, 4.9 in May and 2.6 in June with a K/9 of 10.4. His ERA has dropped every month as well (5.17 to 3.58 to 1.04)

 

Jacob Hannemann's walk rate has gone from 6.3% in April to over 10.5% in May and again in June. He's hitting .311/.388/.500 in June.

 

Tony Zych, who I had basically written off this being his 3rd go around in AA and starting off the season poorly, is back from the dead. Of course, he's just 23 (age appropriate for AA) so perhaps I had written him off unnecessarily. Zych's ERA has gone from 8.00 in April to 3.86 to 0.79 in June. His K/BB went from 4 K/6 BB, 9 K/2 BB to 8/0 in June. Over his last 10 appearances, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked none and struck out 10 with a .204 opponent BA. He's also consistently induced groundballs with a 2.44 GO/AO over that span.

 

Each of these guys has the talent to contribute at the major league level in some way. Two months ago that didn't seem very likely. Now, at least for the moment, they look on track.

Would Reed Johnson be a good comp for Hannemann?

[Guest]

There are quite a few players who's numbers have improved greatly since pretty bad starts to the season. All are older minor leaguers who you would expect to be able to perform at their current levels and it now looks like they are.

 

Rob Zastryzny's H/9 was 14.9% in April, 12.2% in May to 6.1% in June. BABIP evening out or improvement?

 

Juan Paniagua's BB/9 was 6.9 in April, 4.9 in May and 2.6 in June with a K/9 of 10.4. His ERA has dropped every month as well (5.17 to 3.58 to 1.04)

 

Jacob Hannemann's walk rate has gone from 6.3% in April to over 10.5% in May and again in June. He's hitting .311/.388/.500 in June.

 

Tony Zych, who I had basically written off this being his 3rd go around in AA and starting off the season poorly, is back from the dead. Of course, he's just 23 (age appropriate for AA) so perhaps I had written him off unnecessarily. Zych's ERA has gone from 8.00 in April to 3.86 to 0.79 in June. His K/BB went from 4 K/6 BB, 9 K/2 BB to 8/0 in June. Over his last 10 appearances, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked none and struck out 10 with a .204 opponent BA. He's also consistently induced groundballs with a 2.44 GO/AO over that span.

 

Each of these guys has the talent to contribute at the major league level in some way. Two months ago that didn't seem very likely. Now, at least for the moment, they look on track.

Would Reed Johnson be a good comp for Hannemann?

 

Ellsbury is the perfect world comp, but something like Denard Span may be more realistic

[Guest]

There are quite a few players who's numbers have improved greatly since pretty bad starts to the season. All are older minor leaguers who you would expect to be able to perform at their current levels and it now looks like they are.

 

Rob Zastryzny's H/9 was 14.9% in April, 12.2% in May to 6.1% in June. BABIP evening out or improvement?

 

Juan Paniagua's BB/9 was 6.9 in April, 4.9 in May and 2.6 in June with a K/9 of 10.4. His ERA has dropped every month as well (5.17 to 3.58 to 1.04)

 

Jacob Hannemann's walk rate has gone from 6.3% in April to over 10.5% in May and again in June. He's hitting .311/.388/.500 in June.

 

Tony Zych, who I had basically written off this being his 3rd go around in AA and starting off the season poorly, is back from the dead. Of course, he's just 23 (age appropriate for AA) so perhaps I had written him off unnecessarily. Zych's ERA has gone from 8.00 in April to 3.86 to 0.79 in June. His K/BB went from 4 K/6 BB, 9 K/2 BB to 8/0 in June. Over his last 10 appearances, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked none and struck out 10 with a .204 opponent BA. He's also consistently induced groundballs with a 2.44 GO/AO over that span.

 

Each of these guys has the talent to contribute at the major league level in some way. Two months ago that didn't seem very likely. Now, at least for the moment, they look on track.

Would Reed Johnson be a good comp for Hannemann?

His ceiling is described as good sizemore. Of course, being as old as he is he needs to mature as a prospect very quickly to get there.

[Guest]

There are quite a few players who's numbers have improved greatly since pretty bad starts to the season. All are older minor leaguers who you would expect to be able to perform at their current levels and it now looks like they are.

 

Rob Zastryzny's H/9 was 14.9% in April, 12.2% in May to 6.1% in June. BABIP evening out or improvement?

 

Juan Paniagua's BB/9 was 6.9 in April, 4.9 in May and 2.6 in June with a K/9 of 10.4. His ERA has dropped every month as well (5.17 to 3.58 to 1.04)

 

Jacob Hannemann's walk rate has gone from 6.3% in April to over 10.5% in May and again in June. He's hitting .311/.388/.500 in June.

 

Tony Zych, who I had basically written off this being his 3rd go around in AA and starting off the season poorly, is back from the dead. Of course, he's just 23 (age appropriate for AA) so perhaps I had written him off unnecessarily. Zych's ERA has gone from 8.00 in April to 3.86 to 0.79 in June. His K/BB went from 4 K/6 BB, 9 K/2 BB to 8/0 in June. Over his last 10 appearances, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked none and struck out 10 with a .204 opponent BA. He's also consistently induced groundballs with a 2.44 GO/AO over that span.

 

Each of these guys has the talent to contribute at the major league level in some way. Two months ago that didn't seem very likely. Now, at least for the moment, they look on track.

Would Reed Johnson be a good comp for Hannemann?

 

Ellsbury is the perfect world comp, but something like Denard Span may be more realistic

 

David DeJesus

[CubsWin]

There are quite a few players who's numbers have improved greatly since pretty bad starts to the season. All are older minor leaguers who you would expect to be able to perform at their current levels and it now looks like they are.

 

Rob Zastryzny's H/9 was 14.9% in April, 12.2% in May to 6.1% in June. BABIP evening out or improvement?

 

Juan Paniagua's BB/9 was 6.9 in April, 4.9 in May and 2.6 in June with a K/9 of 10.4. His ERA has dropped every month as well (5.17 to 3.58 to 1.04)

 

Jacob Hannemann's walk rate has gone from 6.3% in April to over 10.5% in May and again in June. He's hitting .311/.388/.500 in June.

 

Tony Zych, who I had basically written off this being his 3rd go around in AA and starting off the season poorly, is back from the dead. Of course, he's just 23 (age appropriate for AA) so perhaps I had written him off unnecessarily. Zych's ERA has gone from 8.00 in April to 3.86 to 0.79 in June. His K/BB went from 4 K/6 BB, 9 K/2 BB to 8/0 in June. Over his last 10 appearances, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked none and struck out 10 with a .204 opponent BA. He's also consistently induced groundballs with a 2.44 GO/AO over that span.

 

Each of these guys has the talent to contribute at the major league level in some way. Two months ago that didn't seem very likely. Now, at least for the moment, they look on track.

Would Reed Johnson be a good comp for Hannemann?

His ceiling is described as good sizemore. Of course, being as old as he is he needs to mature as a prospect very quickly to get there.

Tim, or anyone, can you explain why you think someone who is 23 and in Low-A ball would necessarily need to mature quickly in order to be a productive major league player? Especially someone with extenuating circumstances like taking a two year break from baseball? I guess that could hinge on what you mean by "quickly". Truly asking, not sarcastic.

 

Rivero signed as a 25-year-old out of Cuba. He moved quickly. KC, Daytona and Tennessee last year. Tennessee to Iowa this year, but he never really had time off from baseball and was already facing a fairly high level of competition in Cuba. THAT'S quick. Matt Carpenter might be the best example of what I'm looking for with Hannemann. He played his first season as a 23-year-old (291 PAs split mostly between Low-A and High-A). Then was 24 playing in A+ and AA, and 25 while in a full season of AAA. I'm not saying Hannemann will necessarily be as good as Carpenter, but as far as timeline, I'd be more than okay with that.

[Guest]

Vogelbach monster HR.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Tim, or anyone, can you explain why you think someone who is 23 and in Low-A ball would necessarily need to mature quickly in order to be a productive major league player? Especially someone with extenuating circumstances like taking a two year break from baseball? I guess that could hinge on what you mean by "quickly". Truly asking, not sarcastic.

 

 

I'm not a fan of assuming that the extenuating circumstances matter. A two-year break from baseball means he missed a lot of important time. That's not a point in his favor, that's a point against.

 

Baseball players *usually* don't get a whole lot better after about the age of 24 or 25, so if he's not close to a major leaguer now, it's just not a good sign.

 

Pitchers are different. They don't have the same sort of learning curve that hitters do.

[A New Era]

Vogelbach monster HR.

 

Are you calling Vogelbach a monster or his HR a monster? :blush:

[CubsWin]

Tim, or anyone, can you explain why you think someone who is 23 and in Low-A ball would necessarily need to mature quickly in order to be a productive major league player? Especially someone with extenuating circumstances like taking a two year break from baseball? I guess that could hinge on what you mean by "quickly". Truly asking, not sarcastic.

 

 

I'm not a fan of assuming that the extenuating circumstances matter. A two-year break from baseball means he missed a lot of important time. That's not a point in his favor, that's a point against.

 

Baseball players *usually* don't get a whole lot better after about the age of 24 or 25, so if he's not close to a major leaguer now, it's just not a good sign.

 

Pitchers are different. They don't have the same sort of learning curve that hitters do.

Not really what I was asking, but I generally agree with you. That gives Hannemann two years beyond this one to get ready for the bigs. Would that be "quick"?

[Guest]

Tim, or anyone, can you explain why you think someone who is 23 and in Low-A ball would necessarily need to mature quickly in order to be a productive major league player? Especially someone with extenuating circumstances like taking a two year break from baseball? I guess that could hinge on what you mean by "quickly". Truly asking, not sarcastic.

 

 

I'm not a fan of assuming that the extenuating circumstances matter. A two-year break from baseball means he missed a lot of important time. That's not a point in his favor, that's a point against.

 

Baseball players *usually* don't get a whole lot better after about the age of 24 or 25, so if he's not close to a major leaguer now, it's just not a good sign.

 

Pitchers are different. They don't have the same sort of learning curve that hitters do.

Classic

[Guest]

Tim, or anyone, can you explain why you think someone who is 23 and in Low-A ball would necessarily need to mature quickly in order to be a productive major league player? Especially someone with extenuating circumstances like taking a two year break from baseball? I guess that could hinge on what you mean by "quickly". Truly asking, not sarcastic.

 

 

I'm not a fan of assuming that the extenuating circumstances matter. A two-year break from baseball means he missed a lot of important time. That's not a point in his favor, that's a point against.

 

Baseball players *usually* don't get a whole lot better after about the age of 24 or 25, so if he's not close to a major leaguer now, it's just not a good sign.

 

Pitchers are different. They don't have the same sort of learning curve that hitters do.

Classic

Kyle's generally correct here.

 

There are very few hitters in Low A at age 23 who become very good major league players. Carpenter is one, but he is a rarity.

 

The development path for hitters and pitchers is very different. It is why two way guys almost always try hitting first. The thought is that you can always go back to pitching but once you lose that development time as a hitter it is very hard to reach the same heights. It is one reason people are becoming concerned with the amount of development time Soler is missing.

[Guest]

Is it more that it's harder to get that development in a year or two later, or is it that the guys talented enough to become good generally don't miss that development time because they play baseball all the time (because they're really good at it) and don't get in to the game later or take time off for whatever reason?

[craig]

I'm not a fan of assuming that the extenuating circumstances matter. A two-year break from baseball means he missed a lot of important time. That's not a point in his favor, that's a point against.

 

Baseball players *usually* don't get a whole lot better after about the age of 24 or 25, so if he's not close to a major leaguer now, it's just not a good sign.Pitchers are different. They don't have the same sort of learning curve that hitters do.

 

Not really what I was asking, but I generally agree with you. That gives Hannemann two years beyond this one to get ready for the bigs. Would that be "quick"?

 

I think that two years after this would be pretty quick. But I think that is reasonable, and that's the kind of timeframe that we should expect. If he's going to make it, he should play well for the rest of the summer. As he has for this last month of June, where his numbers are terrific. I thought he looked pretty bad through April and May, with lots of strikeouts, and nothing notably impressive. But this month, his strikeouts are way down, and he's showing some power. And the walks have been good. So if he can perform like this more or less, for the rest of the season, I'll be pretty enthused.

 

I'm not sure I get the extenuating circumstances argument. If a guy actually does have big league hitting capability, having missed two years should not make that go away. But it may delay how long it takes for him to figure out how to put it to maximum usage. This player has started, so it seems reasonable that he may develop in a healthy and appropriate way, while naturally being old for his level all along. Not a problem with the age, if in fact he actually has the talent, and is developing it.

 

But if things were moving well for him, two more years after this would be a good timeline. If this year and then another year in Daytona in Tennessee, followed by year in Tennessee and Iowa, don't have them looking ready, he's probably never going to be very good.

 

In any case, it's fun that he's having a really good month. In May, I had pretty much written him off as a wasted pick.

[Guest]

Tim, or anyone, can you explain why you think someone who is 23 and in Low-A ball would necessarily need to mature quickly in order to be a productive major league player? Especially someone with extenuating circumstances like taking a two year break from baseball? I guess that could hinge on what you mean by "quickly". Truly asking, not sarcastic.

 

 

I'm not a fan of assuming that the extenuating circumstances matter. A two-year break from baseball means he missed a lot of important time. That's not a point in his favor, that's a point against.

 

Baseball players *usually* don't get a whole lot better after about the age of 24 or 25, so if he's not close to a major leaguer now, it's just not a good sign.

 

Pitchers are different. They don't have the same sort of learning curve that hitters do.

Not really what I was asking, but I generally agree with you. That gives Hannemann two years beyond this one to get ready for the bigs. Would that be "quick"?

It's not that he cannot be a major league asset if he takes 2-3 years of development time. What I was getting at is that if he is to achieve the ceiling that his tools hint at, he needs to take some quick steps.

 

His walk rate is vastly improved this year, so that is one of the hurdles he had as a player. But that improvement has been countered by a reduction in his ISO and an increase in his K%. For him to reach that potential of a Sizemore or an Ellsbury, he will have to continue rapid improvement.