2014 Cubs Pick Discussion

[davell]

Not overwhelmed with this one, hopefully he's just a minor overslot.

 

it's the 5th round; if it's not a major overslot then you're not going to be overwhelmed by whoever is drafted.

That may be true, but I know I expect to see a few more major overslots based on yesterday's picks.

 

Exactly. Considering Schwarber likely would have went around 15 or so, I'm expecting at least a mill, maybe 1.5 in savings from that pick alone. Stinnett as a college senior has no leverage, I expect him to come in at half of slot. With the 5% money, I'll be disappointed if we don't have 2 mill to play with.

 

Sands takes up 500k or so of it, but I'm definitely expecting us to grab at least one more major over slot guy. Maybe even 2, especially depending on if we take college seniors in 8-10, which we've done in the past.

 

I don't want it spread out personally over 6 guys, I'd rather give it to 2-3 legit upper round talents.

[Guest]

Exactly. Considering Schwarber likely would have went around 15 or so, I'm expecting at least a mill, maybe 1.5 in savings from that pick alone. Stinnett as a college senior has no leverage, I expect him to come in at half of slot. With the 5% money, I'll be disappointed if we don't have 2 mill to play with.

 

This is neither true nor how things work in practice.

[jersey cubs fan]

time for a 10 minute break between rounds 5 and 6. Cubs up in ~14m

[Guest]

Exactly. Considering Schwarber likely would have went around 15 or so, I'm expecting at least a mill, maybe 1.5 in savings from that pick alone. Stinnett as a college senior has no leverage, I expect him to come in at half of slot. With the 5% money, I'll be disappointed if we don't have 2 mill to play with.

 

There was a lot of talk on draft day that Schwarber was going 8 to Colorado or 10 to the Mets, if Conforto was gone. The Cubs aren't saving $1.5 million on him.

[weis21]

Dylan Cease RHP Milton High School, Milton, GA

[Guest]

There you go.

[davell]

YESSSSSSSSS

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

A preseason first team All-American, Cease has been sidelined since early March with an elbow injury. He has been throwing since his velocity dipped into the mid-80s during a chilly, early season game, and he hopes to throw a few bullpens before the draft. Cease gained national recognition as a junior at the National High School Invitational in 2013, when he ran his fastball up to 96 mph. Cease and his twin brother, Alec, led Milton to a state title as juniors. Cease had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit, touching 97 mph but struggling to consistently throw strikes or show a plus breaking ball. Cease came out strong this spring, sitting 92-95 mph and touching 98 with the ball jumping out of his hand from a very quick arm. His curveball showed better in the spring than it had on the showcase circuit. The pitch flashes above-average, but he needs to become more consistent at repeating his best breaking balls. His third offering is a changeup that shows average potential. Cease has some effort to his delivery and he tends to rush, leaving his arm dragging. A Vanderbilt signee, Cease’s injury makes him something of a wild card on draft day.

[Guest]

WOW.

 

Hope he gets the TJS out of the way immediately if necessary.

[TruffleShuffle]

high school pitchers from the deep south are the new market inefficiency.

[davell]

Exactly. Considering Schwarber likely would have went around 15 or so, I'm expecting at least a mill, maybe 1.5 in savings from that pick alone. Stinnett as a college senior has no leverage, I expect him to come in at half of slot. With the 5% money, I'll be disappointed if we don't have 2 mill to play with.

 

There was a lot of talk on draft day that Schwarber was going 8 to Colorado or 10 to the Mets, if Conforto was gone. The Cubs aren't saving $1.5 million on him.

 

I'll buy 10, but I think Colorado had zeroed in on Freeland. 10th pick was still only 2.9 and change. And that's without knowing he was guaranteed to go there. If he gets 3.5 or more, I'll be disappointed.

 

In taking Cease, I think it shows we had a LOT to play with, at any rate.

[Guest]

MLB.com's #76 prospect:

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

 

Cease is one of the hardest throwing high school pitchers in the 2014 Draft class, but he was dealt a significant setback this spring. He suffered an elbow injury that has kept him off the mound since March, leaving his future uncertain.

 

When healthy, Cease throws his fastball from 91-95 mph, topping out at 97 mph. He doesn't have a physical frame, instead generating his velocity with athleticism and arm speed. There is some effort to his delivery, and the rest of his game may remain inconsistent until he refines it.

 

His mid-70s curveball will range from a below-average to an above-average pitch, and his changeup shows flashes of becoming an effective offering, but he'll need to throw it more often.

 

Cease, who plays with his twin brother at Milton High, is committed to Vanderbilt.

[Guest]

Exactly. Considering Schwarber likely would have went around 15 or so, I'm expecting at least a mill, maybe 1.5 in savings from that pick alone. Stinnett as a college senior has no leverage, I expect him to come in at half of slot. With the 5% money, I'll be disappointed if we don't have 2 mill to play with.

 

There was a lot of talk on draft day that Schwarber was going 8 to Colorado or 10 to the Mets, if Conforto was gone. The Cubs aren't saving $1.5 million on him.

 

I'll buy 10, but I think Colorado had zeroed in on Freeland. 10th pick was still only 2.9 and change. And that's without knowing he was guaranteed to go there. If he gets 3.5 or more, I'll be disappointed.

 

In taking Cease, I think it shows we had a LOT to play with, at any rate.

 

Colorado was supposedly in on him because of Freeland's medicals.

[Guest]

BA on Steele:

 

Most of the premium high school players selected out of Mississippi tend to be athletic position players, but Steele could buck that trend. The 6-foot-1, 180-pounder has a lean, athletic build with room to get stronger. He comes from an athletic family, as his brother played college baseball and his father played football at Alabama. Justin jumped onto the national scene by running his fastball up to 93 mph and sitting in the low 90s at East Coast Pro last summer, before his velocity fell to the 85-87 mph range. This spring he has shown similar peaks and inconsistency. At his best early in games, Steele can sit in the low 90s and touch 95. His fastball plays up because he hides the ball well, has a quick arm and has the potential for plus life with sink and run. His velocity regularly falls to 85-87 later in outings, however. His secondary stuff remains behind his fastball. Although he doesn’t use it frequently in game action, Steele's changeup shows potential and is ahead of his breaking ball, a slow, looping curveball that needs a lot of work. But he has thrown strikes this year and his athleticism allows scouts to project average control. He broke his left wrist last summer and had a screw inserted to repair it, adding to the complicated calculation teams will have to make about his value.

[Guest]

A preseason first team All-American, Cease has been sidelined since early March with an elbow injury. He has been throwing since his velocity dipped into the mid-80s during a chilly, early season game, and he hopes to throw a few bullpens before the draft. Cease gained national recognition as a junior at the National High School Invitational in 2013, when he ran his fastball up to 96 mph. Cease and his twin brother, Alec, led Milton to a state title as juniors. Cease had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit, touching 97 mph but struggling to consistently throw strikes or show a plus breaking ball. Cease came out strong this spring, sitting 92-95 mph and touching 98 with the ball jumping out of his hand from a very quick arm. His curveball showed better in the spring than it had on the showcase circuit. The pitch flashes above-average, but he needs to become more consistent at repeating his best breaking balls. His third offering is a changeup that shows average potential. Cease has some effort to his delivery and he tends to rush, leaving his arm dragging. A Vanderbilt signee, Cease’s injury makes him something of a wild card on draft day.

 

That's from BA. #77 on their rankings.

[RynoRules]

I'm irrationally excited about Cease. If it hadn't been for the TJS (I know, a big "if") he looks like a guy who could have been selected in the 2nd.

[Guest]

I'm irrationally excited about Cease. If it hadn't been for the TJS (I know, a big "if") he looks like a guy who could have been selected in the 2nd.

His ranking was knocked down because of the injury. He could have been late first/supplemental based on the stuff he was showing early spring.

[RynoRules]

I'm irrationally excited about Cease. If it hadn't been for the TJS (I know, a big "if") he looks like a guy who could have been selected in the 2nd.

His ranking was knocked down because of the injury. He could have been late first/supplemental based on the stuff he was showing early spring.

 

Doesn't make me feel too much better. I have harsh memories of Angel Guzman and am still waiting for Vizcaino to arrive.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm irrationally excited about Cease. If it hadn't been for the TJS (I know, a big "if") he looks like a guy who could have been selected in the 2nd.

 

Now the real trick will be to get him to sign.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

They wouldn't have taken him if he wasn't going to sign. The question is how much overslot he'll get.

[davell]

I'd love to find a way to afford David Peterson too, but my guess is Cease/Sands/Steele takes up all the savings from Schwarber/Stinnett, possibly the 5% money too.

[A New Era]

I hope his arm doesn't CEASE working.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I hope his arm doesn't CEASE working.

http://i.imgur.com/9cYgsdE.gif

[Guest]

They wouldn't have taken him if he wasn't going to sign. The question is how much overslot he'll get.

 

Yep, they wouldn't have taken him before the 11th round if they weren't confident.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

are there any other notable unsignables left besides Bukauskas?