2014 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospects

[Guest]

Is Vizcainos ceiling not that high anymore? Has he disappointed since returning or is it a combo of the system around him getting much better and the length of time it's taken him to get back from injuries?

 

I think it's mainly that nobody sees him as a starter anymore.

[rawaction]

1. Kris Bryant

2. Addison Russell

3. Javier Baez

4. Arismendy Alcantara

5. Jorge Soler

6. Kyle Schwarber

7. Jen-Ho Tseng

8. Gleyber Torres

9. Albert Almora

10. Billy McKinney

 

There was no space in the top 10 for Arodys Vizcaino, Pierce Johnson, CJ Edwards, Kyle Hendricks, Armando Rivero, Jake Stinnett, Eloy Jimenez or Dan Vogelbach.

 

Those top ten are the best group in the minors. Add 2 names to the 8 that missed, and u probably have a middle of the pack system.

 

Say you split them into two roughly equal groups:

 

Bryant, Baez, Soler, Tseng, Almora, Vizcaino, Edwards, Rivero, Vogelbach, Bruno

 

and

 

Russell, Alcantara, Schwarber, Torres, McKinney, Johnson, Hendricks, Stinnett, Jimenez, Underwood

 

How high would those 2 systems rank?

 

I think the 1st group is much better, but I think both could be in the 5-12 range.

[Guest]

Is Vizcainos ceiling not that high anymore? Has he disappointed since returning or is it a combo of the system around him getting much better and the length of time it's taken him to get back from injuries?

 

I think it's mainly that nobody sees him as a starter anymore.

 

Yeah, that diminishes his ceiling. He was also hurt by the Cubs either adding or getting big jumps up the rankings from Russell, Schwarber, McKinney, Tseng and Torres since last offseason.

[CubsWin]

• Billy McKinney - I can't see anything Almora does better
  
• Albert Almora - He has to find additional ways to provide value to rank higher

Four things I see that Almora does better than McKinney right now are make contact/hit tool, play better defense overall, play CF period, and he also has a slightly better arm. I like McKinney's power and approach at the plate better, but Almora's hit tool is likely ranked higher. McKinney certainly has more swing and miss to his game. Almora was consistently ranked much higher than McKinney on all pre-2014 prospect lists, but they're likely a lot closer together now due to Almora's poor first half and the fact that McKinney is holding his own as a 19-year-old in High-A, but we have to keep in mind that McKinney put up his numbers in the hitter-friend California League while Almora's were in the pitcher-friendly FSL. Almora certainly had his struggles to start the season, but he is absolutely raking of late. Clearly, I haven't soured much on Almora yet. I certainly could be proven wrong, but this is what I see now.

[CubsWin]

I lean a little more heavily on upside than some, so:

 

1. Bryant

2. Russell

3. Baez

4. Soler

5. Alcantara

6. Schwarber

7. Almora

8. Tseng

9. McKinney

10. Torres

11. Jimenez

12. Edwards

13. Johnson

14. Underwood

15. Blackburn

 

After that it gets a little murkier, but the depth is unprecedented in my lifetime. In no particular order - Hendricks, Vogelbach, Torrez, Clifton, Hannemann, Black, Paniagua, Skulina, Zastryzny, Mejia, Vizcaino, Sands, Cease, Stinnett, Bruno, Rivero...

 

WTF do I know. Either way, any way, the Cubs organization is sitting pretty for the foreseeable future.

[rawaction]

1. Bryant

2. Baez

3. Russell

4. Soler

5. Alcantara

6. Schwarber

7. Almora

8. Tseng

9. Torres

10. McKinney

11. Edwards

12. P Johnson

13. Jimenez

14. Vogelbach

15. Vizcaino

16. Rivero

17. Hendricks

18. Stinnett

19. Underwood

20. Bruno

 

Cease has a chance to shoot up these rankings for me, once he's pitching in games. Love his scouting reports.

[Rex Buckingham]

I lean a little more heavily on upside than some, so:

 

1. Bryant

2. Russell

3. Baez

4. Soler

5. Alcantara

6. Schwarber

7. Almora

8. Tseng

9. McKinney

10. Torres

11. Jimenez

12. Edwards

13. Johnson

14. Underwood

15. Blackburn

 

After that it gets a little murkier, but the depth is unprecedented in my lifetime. In no particular order - Hendricks, Vogelbach, Torrez, Clifton, Hannemann, Black, Paniagua, Skulina, Zastryzny, Mejia, Vizcaino, Sands, Cease, Stinnett, Bruno, Rivero...

 

WTF do I know. Either way, any way, the Cubs organization is sitting pretty for the foreseeable future.

 

If you lean towards upside how do you have Javy 3rd? His upside is a solid or better SS who hits 40 dongs a year... Which is better than Bryant (solid or better 3B who hits 40 dongs a year) and Russell (a good SS who hits 20-25 dongs a year)

 

Edit: I know Bryant has outproduced Javy during his time in AAA, but it's still a SSS and Javy is what, 2 years younger? And still playing pretty darn well...

[jersey cubs fan]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

[Rex Buckingham]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

 

The way I look at it, they both have basically the same ceiling offensively which is pretty much HOF-caliber if sustained over a good period of time with solid to better defense, only Javy plays a more premium defensive position. While Bryant is killing it in the minors this year, he does have a fair amount of swing and miss to his game, though certainly not to the level that Javy does.

[TruffleShuffle]

Edit: I know Bryant has outproduced Javy during his time in AAA, but it's still a SSS and Javy is what, 2 years younger? And still playing pretty darn well...

 

baez is only 11 months younger than bryant.

 

and bryant, as long as he stays healthy, is going to hit like 50 home runs in the minors in his age 22 season. along with hitting over .300 and drawing a [expletive]-ton of walks. yeah there are strikeouts in his game, but i feel like those come more from his patient approach than a lot of over-aggressiveness and swinging strikes. bryant has already walked more times this year than baez has in any of his minor league seasons.

[JonJayCutler]

I'll take a shot at it...

 

1. Bryant

2. Russell

3. Baez

4. Alcantara

5. Schwarber

6. Soler

7. Edwards

8. Almora

9. Tseng

10. McKinney

11. P. Johnson

12. Vogelbach

13. Jimenez

14. Torres

15. Hendricks

 

I still love me some Edwards.

[wekim81]

1. Bryant

1a. Baez

3. Russell

4. Alcantara

5. Schwarber

6. Soler

7. Almora

8. Tseng

9. Edwards

10. G. Torres (really impressed last few weeks)

11. McKinney

12. Pierce

13. Hendricks

14. Blackburn

15. Eloy

16. Vizcaino

17. Vogelbach

18. Black

19. Zastryzny (but if he’s hurt again I’d drop him)

20. Candelario (for now)

 

21-30 would be some combo of Underwood, Paniagua, Bruno, Rivero, Clifton, D.Torrez, Hanneman, Skulina, Marco Hernandez, and Cease in some order.

 

Crazy that at this point, my top 30 wouldn’t include Stinnett, Amaya, Willson Contreras, Jeffrey Baez, Pineyro, Rosscup, Zagunis, C. Villanueva, Beeler, Penalver, or Jefferson Mejia.

[CubsWin]

I lean a little more heavily on upside than some, so:

 

1. Bryant

2. Russell

3. Baez

4. Soler

5. Alcantara

6. Schwarber

7. Almora

8. Tseng

9. McKinney

10. Torres

11. Jimenez

12. Edwards

13. Johnson

14. Underwood

15. Blackburn

 

After that it gets a little murkier, but the depth is unprecedented in my lifetime. In no particular order - Hendricks, Vogelbach, Torrez, Clifton, Hannemann, Black, Paniagua, Skulina, Zastryzny, Mejia, Vizcaino, Sands, Cease, Stinnett, Bruno, Rivero...

 

WTF do I know. Either way, any way, the Cubs organization is sitting pretty for the foreseeable future.

 

If you lean towards upside how do you have Javy 3rd? His upside is a solid or better SS who hits 40 dongs a year... Which is better than Bryant (solid or better 3B who hits 40 dongs a year) and Russell (a good SS who hits 20-25 dongs a year)

 

Edit: I know Bryant has outproduced Javy during his time in AAA, but it's still a SSS and Javy is what, 2 years younger? And still playing pretty darn well...

I have Javy 3rd because I only "lean" towards upside. I see Javy, who is 11 months younger than Bryant not 2 years, as having some considerable things to overcome in his development. He overcomes them, and then has to relearn them at the next level. He is a good-hearted, well-meaning teammate who can get easily frustrated which in turn can throw him off his game. And his game is still being developed and refined.

 

Bryant on the other hand is as steady as a rock. He hits for higher average, more power, more on-base percentage and with much, much more consistency. I have his upside and basically the same as Javy's but with a much higher probability of reaching it.

 

Russell is ahead of Javy (though it's very close) because I believe his approach is better and more fully developed. A hitter's approach, demeanor and pitch recognition allows him to use all of his hitting ability and bat speed to it's greatest effect. Thus, Russell chance of reaching his ceiling (which is admittedly lower than Javy's) is much greater than Baez's. Also, I believe Russell to be the better defensive SS.

 

So, despite my love of a player's upside, I don't discard the rest of the factors completely. Likelihood of reaching that potential still plays heavily as well. But it does explain why I have Soler ahead of Alcantara, Underwood ahead of Blackburn, etc.

[Bilbo161]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

Bryant's upside is Triple Crown winner. Not sure Baez has the hit tool for that.

[Guest]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

Bryant's upside is Triple Crown winner. Not sure Baez has the hit tool for that.

 

no it's not.

 

the only thought process under which bryant's upside is to win a batting title is if everyone's ceiling is everything.

[Guest]

I'm not going to say it's at all probable, but until Bryant's professional average stops being higher than the last 3-4 batting crown winners, I'm not going to say it's impossible either.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not going to say it's at all probable, but until Bryant's professional average stops being higher than the last 3-4 batting crown winners, I'm not going to say it's impossible either.

 

Yeah, it's not that loony of an idea.

[Bilbo161]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

Bryant's upside is Triple Crown winner. Not sure Baez has the hit tool for that.

 

no it's not.

 

the only thought process under which bryant's upside is to win a batting title is if everyone's ceiling is everything.

 

Fair enough if you want to be flippant but how does that make Baez' ceiling higher? You do agree that Bryant has the better hit tool ceiling right?

[Guest]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

Bryant's upside is Triple Crown winner. Not sure Baez has the hit tool for that.

 

no it's not.

 

the only thought process under which bryant's upside is to win a batting title is if everyone's ceiling is everything.

 

Fair enough if you want to be flippant but how does that make Baez' ceiling higher? You do agree that Bryant has the better hit tool ceiling right?

 

I wasn't trying to be flippant, in all honesty.

 

Baez's "ceiling" is viewed as higher, I'm guessing, because he has pretty close to as much power as Bryant while being a SS who probably ends up at 2B or 3B (mainly because of the team he's on), while Bryant is a fringe 3B who probably ends up in the OF. That and he's a year younger.

 

Either way, I think debating these things is rather pointless (but I guess everything we talk about here can be boiled down to that). They're both excellent prospects.

[Bilbo161]

Isn't Bryant's actual upside more than that? I mean, he probably never does it but the dude is on pace for ridiculous numbers.

Bryant's upside is Triple Crown winner. Not sure Baez has the hit tool for that.

 

no it's not.

 

the only thought process under which bryant's upside is to win a batting title is if everyone's ceiling is everything.

 

Fair enough if you want to be flippant but how does that make Baez' ceiling higher? You do agree that Bryant has the better hit tool ceiling right?

 

I wasn't trying to be flippant, in all honesty.

 

Baez's "ceiling" is viewed as higher, I'm guessing, because he has pretty close to as much power as Bryant while being a SS who probably ends up at 2B or 3B (mainly because of the team he's on), while Bryant is a fringe 3B who probably ends up in the OF. That and he's a year younger.

 

Either way, I think debating these things is rather pointless (but I guess everything we talk about here can be boiled down to that). They're both excellent prospects.

 

Cool. I guess I forget the positional value part of that equation often with all the offensive numbers these guys put up. Can't wait to be cheering these guys at Wrigley!

[TruffleShuffle]

bryant doesn't seem like a guy who should contend for a batting title because he strikes out a lot, but then again mike trout doesn't seem like a guy who should hit .320, but he does despite striking out almost once a game (because his babip is like .370 every year). some guys just have a knack for hitting the ball hard and who knows, maybe bryant is one of those guys.

[Guest]

bryant doesn't seem like a guy who should contend for a batting title because he strikes out a lot, but then again mike trout doesn't seem like a guy who should hit .320, but he does despite striking out almost once a game (because his babip is like .370 every year). some guys just have a knack for hitting the ball hard and who knows, maybe bryant is one of those guys.

 

trout is insanely fast though

[SouthSideRyan]

bryant doesn't seem like a guy who should contend for a batting title because he strikes out a lot, but then again mike trout doesn't seem like a guy who should hit .320, but he does despite striking out almost once a game (because his babip is like .370 every year). some guys just have a knack for hitting the ball hard and who knows, maybe bryant is one of those guys.

 

trout is insanely fast though

 

Relies mostly on his speed

[Guest]

First, UK can correct me if I'm wrong, but - contact rate =/= hit tool. Also, batting average hit tool.

 

Given relatively equal strikeout and HR rates, the difference in batting average between Baez and Bryant should come down to:

 

- LD%: which of them hits a higher percentage of line drives when the ball stays in the park

- Speed: which is going to be more equipped to beat out the occasional grounder

- Batted Ball Velocity: which hits the ball so hard that grounders and liners tend to find more gaps as fielders have less time to react

 

We have lousy data on the first and third of those as minor league reporting for such things is generally awful. We know Baez is much faster, so we know has an edge on at least one component.

 

Obviously, to date, Bryant's batting average is much higher. But his BABIP is hardly proven to be sustainable at this point. The biggest part of his edge in BA is due to his better home run rate. He has a crazy 1 HR every 11.51 AB. Javy is still great at 16.74 AB/HR, but that will make a very significant difference in BA and largely explains the gap in average to this point.

 

 

 

 

btw - Babe Ruth only had a 11.76 AB/HR. Go Kris.

[JonJayCutler]

There's still people out there that think Bryant is going to hit .250 and OPS .830 in MLB aren't there?

 

I don't give a [expletive] how much he strikes out, that is simply not the type of player we have here.