Who is the Cubs #44 prospect?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The poll will be open for 24 hours. Results so far:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Kris Bryant

3. Albert Almora

4. Jorge Soler

5. CJ Edwards

6. Arismendy Alcantara

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Daniel Vogelbach

9. Christian Villanueva

10. Jeimer Candelario

11. Mike Olt

12. Kyle Hendricks

13. Arodys Vizcaino

14. Paul Blackburn

15. Rob Zastryzny

16. Corey Black

17. Neil Ramirez

18. Eloy Jimenez

19. Josh Vitters

20. Ivan Pineyro

21. Armando Rivero

22. Dillon Maples

23. Duane Underwood

24. Willson Contreras

25. Tyler Skulina

26. Gleyber Torres

27. Shawon Dunston Jr

28. Jacob Hannemann

29. Jen-Ho Tseng

30. Juan Paniagua

31. Zac Rosscup

32. Stephen Bruno

33. Alberto Cabrera

34. Erick Leal

35. Gioskar Amaya

36. Daury Torrez

37. Matt Szczur

38. Ben Wells

39. Scott Frazier

40. Dustin Geiger

41. Eric Jokisch

42. Jose Arias

43. Yasiel Balaguert

[craig]

Easy pick for me.

 

Paulino, Mejia, and Penalver.

 

Lots of choices have had a cluster of guys that to me seemed in a similar group. But these three I feel have a lot of separation, given my assumption that Masek is hurt and with no information suggesting he'll be fine.

 

Paulino's been good, and he was scouted very favorably by BA. Projectible athletic lefties with control, movement, diversity, and movement and with good results thus far appeal.

 

Mejia is big and very fast. Control we'll see, but big arm gives him a chance. Unlimited ceiling at this point, simply because we don't know much other than big and fast.

 

Penalver's got a chance to be a nice-fielding utility guy. Perhaps even more.

[davell]

Penalver should be much higher, he's easy. So is Martin. No reason he should still be on the board if Dunston is 27.

[craig]

... he's easy. So is Martin. No reason he should still be on the board if Dunston is 27.

 

Rather than assuming Martin is misplaced, I think it's simpler to think that Dunston is misplaced.

 

Maybe he'll show something in future. But Martin is a low-power outfielder hitting .179. His career high was .696 at Boise. Martin has shown nothing favorable in any of the K/BB/HR big three. I'm fine with going on perceived tools for guys who haven't shown anything yet. But I guess personally if I'm just going on perceived tools, I'd rather go for the big 96-mph Mejia who has yet to show he won't live up to the talent. Rather than a 4th year guy like Martin who's hitting .172 and OPS'ing at .398, and has never shown very much previously. His manager has been around Mesa all winter, so saw Martin in fall instrux and all of spring training, and is batting him 9th. It may be that he hasn't shown all that much more with the bat in instrux and spring training than he's shown in the small sample at Kane county.

[wekim81]

Penalver and Marco Hernandez. ANd i probably wouldn't have voted that way before the season started.

[davell]

I look at it from a tools standpoint. He's got the potential for average power, missed all of last season and is still starting in KC. I'm pretty sure(not positive) that he was ranked in our top 15 by one of the major publications for his Boise season and may have even been in the league top 20 with BA. Which tells me a lot of how his tools are looked at and gives him a slight advantage over Mejia and Paulino. Who I also have in my personal top 40 by the way. I wouldn't have Vitters, Cabrera, Jokisch, or Arias on my list at this point. But I'm an upside over closeness guy.(understanding Arias has upside)

[craig]

Thanks, Dave. I wouldn't have Arias or Cabrera on top-40 at this point, either. Having a high upside perception is one thing, but at some point there comes a time to retract the perception. If Arias is struggling as a low-A reliever, perhaps it's less that he's underachieving his perceived high ceiling, than that his ceiling perception just isn't accurate at all.

 

In terms of reappraising my evaluation of a guy's tools and ceiling, personally I tend to pull the plug faster on hitters than pitchers. I think pitchers are more likely to improve. They get bigger/faster; they adjust their mechanics; they add a cutter, or develop an effective slider; they get more consistent with their stride and the reproducibility of their arm angle; they get better at hiding the ball and using the same motion for their pitches; they tinker for years before finally finding a grip that works. (Samardz comes to mind….) So I think it's not that uncommon for a pitcher who's got a really good arm and fastball command to grow into his ceiling.

 

But I'm much less a believer that many hitters do that. If the speed and movement of pro pitching is too much for a hitter to really be able to process well, I don't think they very often just grow out of that. Absolutely they can grow into power. But I kind of feel like if a guy struggles hitting in the low minors, it's rare that he'll grow into being a good hitter in the high minors or majors. Certainly every hitter has slumps. Especially in April cold. So Martin may be a very fine hitter who had an 11-game April slump last year, and an 8-game April slump this year. But often if a guy isn't hitting in low-minors, no matter how toolsy his defense and arm and speed and BP power may look, if he doesn't hit in the low minors there's a pretty good chance he just doesn't really have the hitting talent to become a good big-leaguer.

[davell]

Craig, that's very well put. I don't disagree with anything in that post. Honestly, I admit to letting industry evals influence my rankings. But my guess is everyone does. I'm still high on Martin based off what was said of his Boise season and give him a mulligan since then, due to his injury. If he fails to put up a .700 OPS(low bar honestly) he'll fall off my radar completely. However, if he puts up a .750+ or so, I'll have him inside my top 30 almost definitely.

[craig]

Craig, that's very well put. I don't disagree with anything in that post. Honestly, I admit to letting industry evals influence my rankings. But my guess is everyone does. I'm still high on Martin based off what was said of his Boise season and give him a mulligan since then, due to his injury. If he fails to put up a .700 OPS(low bar honestly) he'll fall off my radar completely. However, if he puts up a .750+ or so, I'll have him inside my top 30 almost definitely.

 

Agree. If Martin puts up .750+, he's a prospect. If he can't do .700, he's certainly not. Absolutely agree on the industry evals. We'd be dopes not to factor those in seriously. (If the industry evals were saying that Paulino throws 85, or Mejia 88, I'd not be voting for them.)

 

I think Martin and Dunston may be "if he hits" guys where industry evals need to be used with caution. A lot of young guys get some scouting interest based not he three non-hitting tools. But often hitting is "if he hits", and power is "possibly average/good", contingent on if he hits. Those type of guys remain interesting to me as long as it remains plausible that they'll hit.

[rawaction]

I need to stop voting on my phone. Picked Wang instead of Masek.

 

Penalver, Beeler, Masek. I could be convinced to put Marco Hernandez here though.

[PackLandVA]

What type of prospect is Bijan Rademacher? Seems like he might have a decent bat. Never seem to hear much about him.