Week 11 - Bears (5-4) vs Baltimore (4-5) - 12:00 PM, CBS

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Since no one else would start a game thread.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, the Bears can still probably make the playoffs if they win all of their remaining games. So it would be nice to start this week while they are still favorites.

[UMFan83]

Here's where we stand: Every wild card contender except the Packers and 49ers won yesterday (and the 49ers win was damaging because the Panthers beat them, jumping a game ahead of the Bears (with a 6-2 conference record vs. 3-4 by the Bears). In addition, the Lions have a virtual 2 game lead over the Bears for the division with 7 to play. Overall the Bears playoff odds went from 35% to 17% yesterday. If the Bears had won, they'd be at something like 60% odds.

 

That said, the 49ers cast some legit doubt on whether they are locked into a WC spot like many people had assumed.

 

So you are looking at this:

 

5. Carolina 6-3 (6-2 conference)

6. San Francisco 6-3 (3-2 conference)

7. Arizona 5-4 (4-4 conference)

8. Chicago 5-4 (3-4 conference)

9. Green Bay 5-4 (3-3 conference, loses H2H tiebreaker over Chicago)

10. Philly 5-5 (4-2 conference)

 

So basically 6 teams fighting for 2 spots, all within 1.5 games of each other. Bears unfortunately do not play any of these teams this year besides GB, and if they beat us in Week 17 with Rodgers back, that gets canceled out too. The Bears conference record needs to be improved...they might need to win out (in conference) to have any shot at winning that tiebreaker...unfortunately, this weeks game doesn't help us from that standpoint.

[Guest]

We're going to draft 19th again and miss the playoffs, aren't we?

[Sammy Sofa]

Probably.

[gscool89]

We're going to draft 19th again and miss the playoffs, aren't we?

Yup

[KaiserCesar]

Here's where we stand: Every wild card contender except the Packers and 49ers won yesterday (and the 49ers win was damaging because the Panthers beat them, jumping a game ahead of the Bears (with a 6-2 conference record vs. 3-4 by the Bears). In addition, the Lions have a virtual 2 game lead over the Bears for the division with 7 to play. Overall the Bears playoff odds went from 35% to 17% yesterday. If the Bears had won, they'd be at something like 60% odds.

 

That said, the 49ers cast some legit doubt on whether they are locked into a WC spot like many people had assumed.

 

So you are looking at this:

 

5. Carolina 6-3 (6-2 conference)

6. San Francisco 6-3 (3-2 conference)

7. Arizona 5-4 (4-4 conference)

8. Chicago 5-4 (3-4 conference)

9. Green Bay 5-4 (3-3 conference, loses H2H tiebreaker over Chicago)

10. Philly 5-5 (4-2 conference)

 

So basically 6 teams fighting for 2 spots, all within 1.5 games of each other. Bears unfortunately do not play any of these teams this year besides GB, and if they beat us in Week 17 with Rodgers back, that gets canceled out too. The Bears conference record needs to be improved...they might need to win out (in conference) to have any shot at winning that tiebreaker...unfortunately, this weeks game doesn't help us from that standpoint.

 

The Saints play the 49ers once, the Panthers twice and the Seahawks on the road, so they are definitely a factor in the WC, despite how unbeatable they can look. It looks like the Bears will need an 11-5 or 10-6 if the two losses are to BAL and CLE. A win this week gives a little bit of a margin of error, but the best hope may be a slide by SF, CAR and/or DET back to 9-7.

[UMFan83]

Here's where we stand: Every wild card contender except the Packers and 49ers won yesterday (and the 49ers win was damaging because the Panthers beat them, jumping a game ahead of the Bears (with a 6-2 conference record vs. 3-4 by the Bears). In addition, the Lions have a virtual 2 game lead over the Bears for the division with 7 to play. Overall the Bears playoff odds went from 35% to 17% yesterday. If the Bears had won, they'd be at something like 60% odds.

 

That said, the 49ers cast some legit doubt on whether they are locked into a WC spot like many people had assumed.

 

So you are looking at this:

 

5. Carolina 6-3 (6-2 conference)

6. San Francisco 6-3 (3-2 conference)

7. Arizona 5-4 (4-4 conference)

8. Chicago 5-4 (3-4 conference)

9. Green Bay 5-4 (3-3 conference, loses H2H tiebreaker over Chicago)

10. Philly 5-5 (4-2 conference)

 

So basically 6 teams fighting for 2 spots, all within 1.5 games of each other. Bears unfortunately do not play any of these teams this year besides GB, and if they beat us in Week 17 with Rodgers back, that gets canceled out too. The Bears conference record needs to be improved...they might need to win out (in conference) to have any shot at winning that tiebreaker...unfortunately, this weeks game doesn't help us from that standpoint.

 

The Saints play the 49ers once, the Panthers twice and the Seahawks on the road, so they are definitely a factor in the WC, despite how unbeatable they can look. It looks like the Bears will need an 11-5 or 10-6 if the two losses are to BAL and CLE. A win this week gives a little bit of a margin of error, but the best hope may be a slide by SF, CAR and/or DET back to 9-7.

 

Right but the Saints are currently 3 games up on the Bears with the H2H tiebreaker, it would be a total collapse for them to fall behind the Bears at this point, and short of an injury to Brees, the Saints are simply too talented for that to happen.

[Soul]

I don't even have an idea what games the Bears might win or lose. Other than the Vikings, the remaining games on the schedule seem too fluid to really predict. You've got a group of teams that all play inconsistently from week-to-week, or they have key injuries making the outcome of any game pretty much up in the air.

 

Even the final game against the Packers: sure, Rodgers might be back, but if the Packers are out of it and Rodgers is only, say, 60% -- they might just sit him. Or, he might be back but not as effective as usual. It just depends on what the situation is once we get there.

 

I suspect the Bears will wind up 8-8 or 9-7 and miss the playoffs. But it's just a wild guess.

 

Interesting, looking at the Eagles and Cowboys games. We play the Cowboys @ Soldier Field, and the 'Boys are 1-4 on the road this year. Makes sense, good bit of luck for the Bears. Then look at the Eagles -- we play them in Philly. Bad luck, right? No, they're actually winless at home this year. :-k

[UMFan83]

I don't even have an idea what games the Bears might win or lose. Other than the Vikings, the remaining games on the schedule seem too fluid to really predict. You've got a group of teams that all play inconsistently from week-to-week, or they have key injuries making the outcome of any game pretty much up in the air.

 

Even the final game against the Packers: sure, Rodgers might be back, but if the Packers are out of it and Rodgers is only, say, 60% -- they might just sit him. Or, he might be back but not as effective as usual. It just depends on what the situation is once we get there.

 

I suspect the Bears will wind up 8-8 or 9-7 and miss the playoffs. But it's just a wild guess.

 

Interesting, looking at the Eagles and Cowboys games. We play the Cowboys @ Soldier Field, and the 'Boys are 1-4 on the road this year. Makes sense, good bit of luck for the Bears. Then look at the Eagles -- we play them in Philly. Bad luck, right? No, they're actually winless at home this year. :-k

 

I think that's pretty spot on. I don't think there are any games left on the schedule the Bears are more likely than not to lose, but there aren't any games the Bears are more likely than not to win.

 

vs. Bal - 55/45

@ STL - 50/50

@ Min - 55/45

vs. Dal - 50/50

@ Cle - 55/45

@ Phi - 50/50

vs. GB - 45/55

 

Something like that

[UMFan83]

Posted in other thread but Peanut out for rest of regular season. Placed on IR.

 

Also McCown likely to start Sunday.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

Cutler week to week with the dreaded high ankle sprain.

[Soul]

At least McCown will be playing for the right reason.

[Old Style]

I'm more worried about our D than McCown running the offense.

[RynoRules]

No Peanut and no pass rush means we will be lucky to win 2 more games.

[Splendid Splinter]

Posted in other thread but Peanut out for rest of regular season. Placed on IR.

 

Also McCown likely to start Sunday.

 

Cutler week to week with the dreaded high ankle sprain.

 

We might as well just tank and get the best possible pick now. I thought the past couple years were bad with injuries, but this year is just unreal.

 

About the only positive thing is Cutler really can't be asking for the moon in the offseason. That being said, I would rather just offer him a non-exclusive franchise tag now (1 yr 12.5 mil I believe... it's the lesser between 120% of last years salary or top 5 avg at that position) and see what the market value will be for him. If a team wants to overpay for him, don't match it and gain 2- 1st round picks.

Edited November 11, 2013 by Splendid Splinter

[Banedon]

I'm more worried about our D than McCown running the offense.

 

Actually, I thought the D didn't play terribly yesterday. I understand the concern though.

[UMFan83]

I'm more worried about our D than McCown running the offense.

 

Actually, I thought the D didn't play terribly yesterday. I understand the concern though.

 

Well yeah but they keep losing guys. How the heck are we going to replace Peanut now? Bowman is ok but there will be a big drop off.

 

Asomugha is out there but I'm not sure what kind of fit he is in this system, and hes on the street for a reason.

[Banedon]

I'm more worried about our D than McCown running the offense.

 

Actually, I thought the D didn't play terribly yesterday. I understand the concern though.

 

Well yeah but they keep losing guys. How the heck are we going to replace Peanut now? Bowman is ok but there will be a big drop off.

 

Asomugha is out there but I'm not sure what kind of fit he is in this system, and hes on the street for a reason.

 

Yeah, like I said. I get the concern. Wooton is having a very nice year, and after a typically crummy start, I thought Conte did some not horrible things later on.

[cubbyvirus00]

This season has been a trainwreck. I was mentally checked out until we beat the Packers and I got excited again. Only to choke away the Lions game....now more injuries.

[USSoccer]

Posted in other thread but Peanut out for rest of regular season. Placed on IR.

 

Also McCown likely to start Sunday.

 

Is the McCown thing speculation or something that was said?

[UMFan83]

Posted in other thread but Peanut out for rest of regular season. Placed on IR.

 

Also McCown likely to start Sunday.

 

Is the McCown thing speculation or something that was said?

 

Educated speculation if that makes sense

[Banedon]

http://i.imgur.com/7BvMxac.jpg

[KaiserCesar]

Here's where we stand: Every wild card contender except the Packers and 49ers won yesterday (and the 49ers win was damaging because the Panthers beat them, jumping a game ahead of the Bears (with a 6-2 conference record vs. 3-4 by the Bears). In addition, the Lions have a virtual 2 game lead over the Bears for the division with 7 to play. Overall the Bears playoff odds went from 35% to 17% yesterday. If the Bears had won, they'd be at something like 60% odds.

 

That said, the 49ers cast some legit doubt on whether they are locked into a WC spot like many people had assumed.

 

So you are looking at this:

 

5. Carolina 6-3 (6-2 conference)

6. San Francisco 6-3 (3-2 conference)

7. Arizona 5-4 (4-4 conference)

8. Chicago 5-4 (3-4 conference)

9. Green Bay 5-4 (3-3 conference, loses H2H tiebreaker over Chicago)

10. Philly 5-5 (4-2 conference)

 

So basically 6 teams fighting for 2 spots, all within 1.5 games of each other. Bears unfortunately do not play any of these teams this year besides GB, and if they beat us in Week 17 with Rodgers back, that gets canceled out too. The Bears conference record needs to be improved...they might need to win out (in conference) to have any shot at winning that tiebreaker...unfortunately, this weeks game doesn't help us from that standpoint.

 

The Saints play the 49ers once, the Panthers twice and the Seahawks on the road, so they are definitely a factor in the WC, despite how unbeatable they can look. It looks like the Bears will need an 11-5 or 10-6 if the two losses are to BAL and CLE. A win this week gives a little bit of a margin of error, but the best hope may be a slide by SF, CAR and/or DET back to 9-7.

 

Right but the Saints are currently 3 games up on the Bears with the H2H tiebreaker, it would be a total collapse for them to fall behind the Bears at this point, and short of an injury to Brees, the Saints are simply too talented for that to happen.

 

I was thinking of it mostly as a hedge to San Fran and Carolina finishing really strongly and knocking off NO in those games. It basically prevents a scenario of an 11-5 team missing the playoffs on tiebreakers.

 

In all other respects, NO dropping into the WC pool by losing to Carolina is a pretty bad outcome due to the H2H.

[Soul]

Such a terrible, terrible game for the guys up front. That can't continue.