The Breakout guys in 2014

[CubsWin]

Two more names to consider for guys who could make significant jumps next year are Trey Martin and Jose Arias.

 

As far as your original breakout into top 100 guys qualification, I think Dan Vogelbach should be mentioned. I know a lot of Cubs fans already consider him "broken out", but he didn't put up the numbers many expected this season, and he certainly won't be on any top 100 prospect lists this spring. If he is, I'll be surprised. He's not my first choice to break into those ranks. That's Jeimer Candelario, but I think Vogey should be mentioned in a discussion like this.

[davell]

I think he's very likely to be a top 100 guy next year. I didn't put him on mainly because, as you said, I kind of feel he's already broken out.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Vogelbach put up an .834 OPS between two extreme pitcher's leagues. 73/89 K/BB. Not an acceptable candidate.

[Johnny Sleeper]

As far as your original breakout into top 100 guys qualification, I think Dan Vogelbach should be mentioned. I know a lot of Cubs fans already consider him "broken out", but he didn't put up the numbers many expected this season, and he certainly won't be on any top 100 prospect lists this spring. If he is, I'll be surprised. He's not my first choice to break into those ranks.

 

John Sickles did a top 125 list right at the end of the season. He ranked the top 75 then threw another 40 names in random order. Vogelbach was on that list. A jump from the top 125 into the top 100 isn't a breakout. If it were just Cubs fans that were high on Vogelbach I would see your point, but scouts love everything about Vogelbach except his defense which limits him to DH without his defense hurting his value. I won't be surprised if he ends up sneaking onto a few top 100 lists.

[Cubswin11]

Vogelbach put up an .834 OPS between two extreme pitcher's leagues. 73/89 K/BB. Not an acceptable candidate.

Yeah he's already had a pseudo-breakout. In order for him to be considered a "breakout" guy for me, since I already consider him a solid top 100ish prospect, he'd have to OPS in the mid-high .900's and look like/get scouts to start saying he definitely could stick at 1B or somewhere else in the field (LF, probably is the only other place he'd have a remote chance).

[CubsWin]

I think he's very likely to be a top 100 guy next year. I didn't put him on mainly because, as you said, I kind of feel he's already broken out.

At the end of next year or going into it?

[davell]

I think he's very likely to be a top 100 guy next year. I didn't put him on mainly because, as you said, I kind of feel he's already broken out.

At the end of next year or going into it?

Oh, at the end of next. Figure he'd be on most top 150-200 currently.

[CubsWin]

I get the he's already broken out thing. He certainly wouldn't be coming out of nowhere, but if he starts mashing like many think he can (.550 SLG, .375 OBP) and moves from 150-200 range to 75-100, that sure would feel like a breakout season to me even if within the parameters of this discussion it doesn't qualify.

[CubsWin]

Vogelbach put up an .834 OPS between two extreme pitcher's leagues. 73/89 K/BB. Not an acceptable candidate.

To nitpick, it was a .824 OPS last season, .814 over 500 plate appearances in the MWL which historically isn't known as an extreme pitcher's league. His .895 OPS in the FSL, which can be described as a fairly strong pitcher's league, was greatly influenced by the incredible amount of walks he took giving him a very impressive .455 OBP. He slugged a respectable .440 in the FSL in a small sample, but that aligns with his SLG in the MWL. Maybe it's just me, but I think if he stays at that level going forward (with his defensive concerns) he won't be making many top 100 lists.

 

I was very pleased with his season developmentally, and I expect it will payoff this season with greater production. If he does produce well in the FSL and SL, it will feel like a breakout to me legitimizing him among prospect pundits across the board.

 

That said, I get where you are coming from.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's a guy worth keeping an eye on but he still needs to break out in a big way offensively to really change people's opinion's on his future.

[CubsWin]

He's a guy worth keeping an eye on but he still needs to break out in a big way offensively to really change people's opinion's on his future.

Agreed.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

And what are people's opinions about his future at this moment?

[Clem Fandango]

And what are people's opinions about his future at this moment?

 

In the Cubs organization? I think he's traded to an A.L. team, possibly this offseason, in a package for pitching. I'd still like to keep him around though and see him progress more.

 

Here's a question... if Vogelbach was on an A.L. team does his ranking on lists adjust higher given his ability to D.H. full time in the future?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I meant opinion of him purely as a hitter. Because I don't know what he has or hasn't done that would make anyone think he needs to take a "big step forward" as an offensive player.

[Johnny Sleeper]

It is rare for a player of Vogelbach's skill set to crack the top 100 because of there lack of defensive ability. To put it in perspective David Ortiz was only a BA top 100 prospect once in 1998 at #86. Frank Thomas appeared in BA's top 100 once, 1990, at #29. Ryan Howard only showed up once, 2005, at #27. All three were ranked after they were certain to be in the majors that next year. None profiled as strong defensive players which took them until they had performed offensively at higher levels to be considered top 100 prospects because of how much their defense hurt their overall value. Prince Fielder is one of the rare exceptions, but as a prospect scouts thought he could drop some weight and become a good defensive 1B and he was putting up insane numbers, .400+ OBP and .500+ SLG at most stops and was in the majors at 21. Fielder's defense was significantly better then Vogelbach's who has had his range described as "a step and a fall".

 

It is a testament to just how good Vogelbach's bat is that he is considered a top 150 prospect and fringe top 100, by some, given his negative defensive. Vogelbach holds more value to an AL team where he can DH most of the time. I don't think they will trade him until next off-season when he should be near-ready and a team could trade for him with the intentions of bringing him up mid-season to give their offense a boost. Similar to what the Rays did this year with Myers and Dodgers with Puig and if you go back to last year Trout and Harper for the Angels and Nationals, granted Harper was more out of need as injuries were killing them at the time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Frank Thomas was drafted in 1989. The 1990 Top 100 was the first Top 100 he could appear. He had 223 PAs at A ball in 1989, hitting 4 HRs. He most certainly was not a lock for the majors in 1990.

[TruffleShuffle]

frank thomas only made the top 100 once because, after turning pro, he only had one offseason where he was prospect eligible.

 

jack cust made the top 100 3 times, and he was always projected to be an abysmal defensive player.

[jersey cubs fan]

I meant opinion of him purely as a hitter. Because I don't know what he has or hasn't done that would make anyone think he needs to take a "big step forward" as an offensive player.

 

My opinion of him as a hitter is that he could be a really good one but he does actually have to start hitting for a lot more power if he is going to be considered a big power bat. And he's going to have to be a big power bat if he has any chance to have a major league career. The 450 SLG this year just wasn't that impressive from a guy who needs to make it as a DH. Give his numbers to a competent fielding 3B and I'm a lot more excited. But he has no value as a player except for what he can do as a hitter, so he has to be better than typical prospects with the bat to compete with them in rankings.