Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[KingCubsFan]

Towers already gave away Skaggs this offseason.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

D'Backs apparently "are willing" to fly to Japan to meet with Tanaka's people. Not really sure why this is news, since I'd presume any of the interested teams would do the same.

[Guest]

Towers already gave away Skaggs this offseason.

 

That's right, fixed.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Going off the list of suitors that have come up on MLBTR:

 

Yankees

+ If they decide the luxury tax is okay, they can give him a ton of cash

+ They're the Yankees, with all the prestige that goes with it

+ They have a lot of motivation, as they need to add wins and the rotation has holes

- If they're at all serious about avoiding the luxury tax, they can't really pay Tanaka

- If Tanaka wants to be "the guy", he may not want to be the 10th most popular player on the Yankees

- The Yankees, for all their spending, don't project to be all that good, especially in the hyper-competitive AL East

 

Dodgers

+ If they want to, they can give him whatever price he wants

+ West coast based

+ Maybe the best overall team of the potential suitors

- They don't really have a great need for Tanaka, with Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Beckett/Haren/Billingsley

- Like with NYY, if Tanaka wants to be "the guy", he may not want to be the potential 3-4 starter on the Dodgers

 

Diamondbacks

+ Would be a marquee addition and definitely lead the rotation/team in starpower

+ Recently competitive and in a weaker division, could be seen as an easier way to perennial playoff appearances

- Have a full rotation with Corbin/Cahill/Miley/McCarthy/Delgado plus Skaggs/Bradley on the way

- Not sure if they have the financial resources to be a serious player for Tanaka

- I'm not aware of any Asian/Japanese players that would be a part of the clubhouse, he would be on an island in that sense

+/- Kevin Towers may decide that Tanaka is worth 4/120 or 2/10

 

Mariners

+ West coast and strong cultural connection, could play with former teammate Iwakuma

+ Jack Z has been making statement moves, can't rule out making a big play

- Even with Tanaka, the Mariners are the 3rd best team in their division

- Tanaka would be 2nd fiddle to Felix in the rotation(plus Cano in the field) if that matters to him

- There's rumblings that the Mariners don't have the financial resources to get Tanaka, slightly corroborated by their minimal interest in Choo and interest in Price rather than FA SP options

 

Boston

+ Play on the best team in MLB last year that should be really good again this year

+ Have the financial resources to give him the contract he wants

- Haven't been strongly linked to Tanaka in the rumor mill, may not have much interest

- No immediate need in the rotation with Lester/Dempster/Peavy/Buchholz/Lackey plus a bunch of prospects

 

Texas

+ Really good team that would probably be the definitive AL West favorites with Tanaka in tow

+ Daniels has been making win-now moves(Choo, Garza), and may feel that Tanaka is necessary for the AL arms race

+ Kindred spirit in Darvish having gone through the same process and pressure

- Rumor is they don't have the resources to pay Tanaka after signing Choo

- Tanaka may not want to be 2nd fiddle to Darvish

- No immediate rotation need with Darvish/Holland/Harrison/Perez/Tepesch/Ogando/Feliz

 

Cubs

+ Big market team, would be a marquee addition and at the top of the roster in star-power, "guy who broke the curse" nonsense

+ Appear to be heavily interested and have resources to pay him as much as anyone if last year's payroll is attainable

- Not as strong a team as some other suitors although closer than casual perspective might think for others(e.g. Yankees)

- Front office has lost out on similar players for principled stands on negotiations(e.g. 4 years to Cespedes)

 

Others

Twins - No, they likely lose out to other teams on most every factor, Tanaka strikes out too many guys for them anyway

Phillies - Amaro may try to come in guns a blazin, but there's a lot of teams interested in paying big money and the Phillies are bad and will be bad for a while

Astros - Could be the "mystery team" everyone enjoys, but were so historically bad it'll be a hard sell when everyone will be in a similar $$ range

 

Bottom line, if you believe the rumors about the Cubs interest(I have no reason not to), I think you have to feel relatively good about their chances. The external factors will be if non-money factors weigh heavily for Tanaka, and if another team decides to blow things up with an astronomical contract. I'm not one to set specific odds, but the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees seem like the 3 most likely destinations to me.

 

Awesome post. I agree that Dodgers, Yanks and Cubs are top three most likely destinations. Despite whatever issues each team may have -- luxury tax, etc. - those are the exact two teams you don't want to be competing against.

 

I hope I am so very wrong, but I've already moved on in my mind from the Cubs getting him. Maybe that's a bit irresponsible on my part, but I no longer believe they have a serious chance.

 

At least go sign Johan Santana. :lol:

[davell]

I go back and forth on where I see him winding up. Currently, I'd place percentages something like this....

 

Yankees 25%

Dodgers 20%

Mariners 15%

Cubs 10%

Red Sox 10%

Angels 10%

Rangers 5%

Field 5%

[d_money]

Thank god St Louis doesn't have a huge Asian population!

[UMFan83]

Interesting take from Yahoo:

 

Inside front offices around baseball, Tanaka-mania is brewing and almost certain to wind up with the 25-year-old right-hander landing a $100 million contract on top of the $20 million posting fee due his team in Japan, the Rakuten Golden Eagles. The fervor is not entirely contagious. A number of executives surveyed by Yahoo Sports copped to a mild case of fear borne of what we think we know, which is that a lot of pitches do not bode well for the long-term health of an arm. Granted, our actual knowledge of the arm remains in its embryonic stages, and the whole what-we-think-we-know thing may turn out to be complete bunk.

 

Still, that is what guides the market today, and so here is the reality about Tanaka on the minds of teams interested and not: Over the last five years, he has averaged more pitches per start, 113.3, than any pitcher in the major leagues. The closest is Justin Verlander at 112.9 and Felix Hernandez ranks second at 106.5. And it's not just the per-game haul. Some of the individual outings Tanaka has logged horrify the pitch-count phobes.

 

There were the 742 pitches Tanaka threw over six starts in a two-week span as a 17-year-old at the national high school baseball tournament. And the back-to-back 137- and 142-pitch starts at 20 years old. The coup de grace came during the Japan Series this season, in which Tanaka went 160 pitches during a Game 6 loss, then came back the next day and threw another 15 in relief to close out Rakuten's championship victory.

Lauded in Japan for his courage and tenacity, Tanaka came off to judicious front offices as reckless.

 

"It worries me a lot," one NL executive said.

 

"Not ideal," one general manager said.

 

"There is definitely reason for concern," another GM said.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pitch-counts-are-a-real-concern-when-it-comes-to-sensation-masahiro-tanaka-055941978.html

[Clem Fandango]

Aren't these all the same concerns people had with Darvish?

[Guest]

Aren't these all the same concerns people had with Darvish?

 

More or less, yes. In fairness, Dice-K too. It's mostly clickbait stuff, kinda like articles about "[Team] considering not taking [really obvious #1 pick] 1st overall". Not that we should blow off Tanaka's workload, but articles like this one and Verducci's on the same note are mostly fishing for page views.

[imb]

"that's slightly more pitches per start than (incredibly durable starter) and (other incredibly durable starter.)"

[Guest]

"that's slightly more pitches per start than (incredibly durable starter) and (other incredibly durable starter.)"

 

 

not sure why you used quotes but pitches per start is not necessarily the meaningful number.

[imb]

because i paraphrased a stupid quote

[CubsWin]

Aren't these all the same concerns people had with Darvish?

The one thing that reassured me about Darvish was his 6'5" frame. I don't know if there is any data stating that an ideal, larger pitchers frame lends itself to longevity and ability to handle workload (in fact I know of one that shows size doesn't impact this), but for some reason, I think GMs generally feel more comfortable thinking that Darvish can handle the workload better than someone Tanaka's size.

[imb]

just like kerry wood and mark prior

[Clem Fandango]

Had a dream last night that me and Ogre from Revenge of the Nerds were recruiting Masahiro Tanaka by feeding him some busted ass hot dogs on some busted ass buns with ketchup and artichoke hearts. For the Twins.

 

So I think we got it in the bag, you guys.

[NOLA]

Had a dream last night that me and Ogre from Revenge of the Nerds were recruiting Masahiro Tanaka by feeding him some busted ass hot dogs on some busted ass buns with ketchup and artichoke hearts. For the Twins.

 

So I think we got it in the bag, you guys.

Did weed get legalized in Alabama too?

[Clem Fandango]

How come whenever I have a weird dream they automatically assume I smoke weed? Come on, man.

 

I take Zzzquil.

[A New Era]

I had a dream me and Tanaka were flying a kamikaze plane, but the thing we were driving toward was the Cubs 106 year World Series drought. Then I realized I'm kinda racist in my sleep.

[NOLA]

I think ZzzQuil is probably more potent than weed. I took that stuff once and it was not that dissimilar to drinking Absinthe.

[Guest]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/story/_/id/10231166/seattle-mariners-new-york-yankees-need-masahiro-tanaka-most-mlb

 

Despite these caveats, ZiPS projects Tanaka as the most valuable pitcher available in free agency this year. ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.

[Clem Fandango]

I think ZzzQuil is probably more potent than weed. I took that stuff once and it was not that dissimilar to drinking Absinthe.

 

Yeah, it's wonderful.

[Clem Fandango]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/story/_/id/10231166/seattle-mariners-new-york-yankees-need-masahiro-tanaka-most-mlb

 

Despite these caveats, ZiPS projects Tanaka as the most valuable pitcher available in free agency this year. ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.

 

GAAAHHH I WANT HIM ON THE CUBS.

 

I hate that this is gonna drag on until the deadline and ultimately affect the only major thing the Cubs have left to do, which is determine Samardzija's future with the team.

[Guest]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/story/_/id/10231166/seattle-mariners-new-york-yankees-need-masahiro-tanaka-most-mlb

 

Despite these caveats, ZiPS projects Tanaka as the most valuable pitcher available in free agency this year. ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.

 

GAAAHHH I WANT HIM ON THE CUBS.

 

I hate that this is gonna drag on until the deadline and ultimately affect the only major thing the Cubs have left to do, which is determine Samardzija's future with the team.

I really think Shark's future with the Cubs is already determined. If he's not traded before the start of the season he will surely be gone by the deadline. I don't think the Cubs want to pay market value for him, I can't blame them.

 

Hopefully they land Tanaka and he's worth the money.

[d_money]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/story/_/id/10231166/seattle-mariners-new-york-yankees-need-masahiro-tanaka-most-mlb

 

Despite these caveats, ZiPS projects Tanaka as the most valuable pitcher available in free agency this year. ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.

 

GAAAHHH I WANT HIM ON THE CUBS.

 

I hate that this is gonna drag on until the deadline and ultimately affect the only major thing the Cubs have left to do, which is determine Samardzija's future with the team.

I really think Shark's future with the Cubs is already determined. If he's not traded before the start of the season he will surely be gone by the deadline. I don't think the Cubs want to pay market value for him, I can't blame them.

 

Hopefully they land Tanaka and he's worth the money.

I think Shark is a goner at the deadline - but he will have a great first half which will net the Cubs a sweet return. No way are we getting Tanaka, and it won't be for lack of effort.

[WrigleyField 22]

I think ZzzQuil is probably more potent than weed. I took that stuff once and it was not that dissimilar to drinking Absinthe.

 

Yeah, it's wonderful.

I took some on an international flight and was out before they were serving dinner. Worked like a charm.