Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Guest]

I really wish we had a better idea of how that posting fee would be handled as part of the payroll. You can make it work pretty much regardless, but if it ALL has to be a part of this year's payroll, then you need to pretty much trade Jackson, Shark, Villanueva, Schierholtz, even Barney to do so. You can come up to something that isn't a disaster, but since that pretty much caps the offseason, the best you can do is mostly tread water and hope for breakthroughs from young position players(Rizzo, Castro, Lake, Olt, Baez, Bryant) along with Tanaka and any pitching you get for Shark. Sets up brilliantly for 2015, but not exactly the ideal.

 

TT: The posting fee would not count against the payroll, so it won't be part of the luxury tax calculation. But internally speaking, it would have to count against the Baseball Operations budget. Let's assume the Cubs Baseball Ops total budget for 2014 is $150M - that includes payroll for the 40 man roster, funding minor league ops like scouting and player development, coaches and executive salaries, training centers, etc... Let's assume Mr. Epstein has calculated that he has already spent $90M on the guaranteed contracts plus all the other stuff, and can spend up to $60M more on the 40 man roster. So, he adds up the $60M posting fee plus Tanaka's $12M salary (e.g. 6 years $72M) plus $30M in additional moves he wants to make for the 2014 team. So, he needs $102M, but only has $60M to spend. What does he do? He goes to Mr. Ricketts and says, "boss, I need to borrow $42M." Ricketts might say, "Sure, but I will have to lower your future budget by $7-8M per year over the next 6 years to pay for it." Or, he might say, "I'll give you $24M, but you need to trade $18M in salaries to fund the rest." Theo will have to consider his options carefully. From my vantage point, I think the Cubs should got for it! With the team set to have fairly cheap offensive productivity over the next few years, investing in difference-making pitching seems like a no-brainer.

 

Good to see you, Hoops!

 

I worded that poorly, as I think we're all in agreement that the posting fee has to come from somewhere in the Baseball Ops budget, be it "payroll" or some other bucket. What I should have clarified is that my confusion is about the ability to amortize even a part of that posting fee. Because the posting fee is due immediately, and because there's so much uncertainty around the moneys available because of renovations, debt service, etc, knowing that they can pull from future years as part of posting fee would make a huge difference.

[jam1975]

I really wish we had a better idea of how that posting fee would be handled as part of the payroll. You can make it work pretty much regardless, but if it ALL has to be a part of this year's payroll, then you need to pretty much trade Jackson, Shark, Villanueva, Schierholtz, even Barney to do so. You can come up to something that isn't a disaster, but since that pretty much caps the offseason, the best you can do is mostly tread water and hope for breakthroughs from young position players(Rizzo, Castro, Lake, Olt, Baez, Bryant) along with Tanaka and any pitching you get for Shark. Sets up brilliantly for 2015, but not exactly the ideal.

 

TT: The posting fee would not count against the payroll, so it won't be part of the luxury tax calculation. But internally speaking, it would have to count against the Baseball Operations budget. Let's assume the Cubs Baseball Ops total budget for 2014 is $150M - that includes payroll for the 40 man roster, funding minor league ops like scouting and player development, coaches and executive salaries, training centers, etc... Let's assume Mr. Epstein has calculated that he has already spent $90M on the guaranteed contracts plus all the other stuff, and can spend up to $60M more on the 40 man roster. So, he adds up the $60M posting fee plus Tanaka's $12M salary (e.g. 6 years $72M) plus $30M in additional moves he wants to make for the 2014 team. So, he needs $102M, but only has $60M to spend. What does he do? He goes to Mr. Ricketts and says, "boss, I need to borrow $42M." Ricketts might say, "Sure, but I will have to lower your future budget by $7-8M per year over the next 6 years to pay for it." Or, he might say, "I'll give you $24M, but you need to trade $18M in salaries to fund the rest." Theo will have to consider his options carefully. From my vantage point, I think the Cubs should got for it! With the team set to have fairly cheap offensive productivity over the next few years, investing in difference-making pitching seems like a no-brainer.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adg6iEz3-Ow

[davell]

Joel Sherman says in his column today that there will be changes to the system, but it's likely only one team will get to negotiate with Tanaka. Sherman speculates Tanaka will get to choose between the top two or three bidders and pick the one he wants to negotiate with. If this IS the case, I don't see that as an advantage for us whatsoever.

[SouthSideRyan]

Joel Sherman says in his column today that there will be changes to the system, but it's likely only one team will get to negotiate with Tanaka. Sherman speculates Tanaka will get to choose between the top two or three bidders and pick the one he wants to negotiate with. If this IS the case, I don't see that as an advantage for us whatsoever.

 

That seems like MLB slowly forcing its way out of the posting system. If the rumors around Darvish are true, that could've cost his Japanese team ~40M if he wanted to negotiate with a team other than the Rangers, and you'd almost have to assume the player would choose the non-winning bid in all these situations seeing how Darvish and Matsuzaka got less than market value due to the posting fee being (somewhat) figured into the contract value while none of that money was going to the player.

[Guest]

But what incentive does a team with a lower bid have to bake more cost into the contract?

 

My gut reaction is that this doesn't change things a ton. Where it would change it is in cases where the winning bidder only wins by a couple million or so, or in cases where there's a really compelling reason not to take the winning bid(it's the Marlins pulling a 2011 again, the Astros trying to spend all their money at once to inch their way to 60 wins, the Dodgers want him to be their setup man, etc). I have a hard time seeing the player doing a great deal of harm to the team posting him without a pretty significant reason to do so.

[HoopsCubs]

Joel Sherman says in his column today that there will be changes to the system, but it's likely only one team will get to negotiate with Tanaka. Sherman speculates Tanaka will get to choose between the top two or three bidders and pick the one he wants to negotiate with. If this IS the case, I don't see that as an advantage for us whatsoever.

 

That seems like MLB slowly forcing its way out of the posting system. If the rumors around Darvish are true, that could've cost his Japanese team ~40M if he wanted to negotiate with a team other than the Rangers, and you'd almost have to assume the player would choose the non-winning bid in all these situations seeing how Darvish and Matsuzaka got less than market value due to the posting fee being (somewhat) figured into the contract value while none of that money was going to the player.

 

Definitely hard to see Tanaka picking the Cubs, if he has a chance to sign with LA, New York or Boston.

[HoopsCubs]

Sherman's full article here: http://nypost.com/2013/10/26/changes-coming-to-mlb-bids-for-japan-players/

[davell]

Joel Sherman says in his column today that there will be changes to the system, but it's likely only one team will get to negotiate with Tanaka. Sherman speculates Tanaka will get to choose between the top two or three bidders and pick the one he wants to negotiate with. If this IS the case, I don't see that as an advantage for us whatsoever.

 

That seems like MLB slowly forcing its way out of the posting system. If the rumors around Darvish are true, that could've cost his Japanese team ~40M if he wanted to negotiate with a team other than the Rangers, and you'd almost have to assume the player would choose the non-winning bid in all these situations seeing how Darvish and Matsuzaka got less than market value due to the posting fee being (somewhat) figured into the contract value while none of that money was going to the player.

 

Definitely hard to see Tanaka picking the Cubs, if he has a chance to sign with LA, New York or Boston.

I'd add Seattle to that, Texas possibly too.

[HoopsCubs]

I really wish we had a better idea of how that posting fee would be handled as part of the payroll. You can make it work pretty much regardless, but if it ALL has to be a part of this year's payroll, then you need to pretty much trade Jackson, Shark, Villanueva, Schierholtz, even Barney to do so. You can come up to something that isn't a disaster, but since that pretty much caps the offseason, the best you can do is mostly tread water and hope for breakthroughs from young position players(Rizzo, Castro, Lake, Olt, Baez, Bryant) along with Tanaka and any pitching you get for Shark. Sets up brilliantly for 2015, but not exactly the ideal.

 

TT: The posting fee would not count against the payroll, so it won't be part of the luxury tax calculation. But internally speaking, it would have to count against the Baseball Operations budget. Let's assume the Cubs Baseball Ops total budget for 2014 is $150M - that includes payroll for the 40 man roster, funding minor league ops like scouting and player development, coaches and executive salaries, training centers, etc... Let's assume Mr. Epstein has calculated that he has already spent $90M on the guaranteed contracts plus all the other stuff, and can spend up to $60M more on the 40 man roster. So, he adds up the $60M posting fee plus Tanaka's $12M salary (e.g. 6 years $72M) plus $30M in additional moves he wants to make for the 2014 team. So, he needs $102M, but only has $60M to spend. What does he do? He goes to Mr. Ricketts and says, "boss, I need to borrow $42M." Ricketts might say, "Sure, but I will have to lower your future budget by $7-8M per year over the next 6 years to pay for it." Or, he might say, "I'll give you $24M, but you need to trade $18M in salaries to fund the rest." Theo will have to consider his options carefully. From my vantage point, I think the Cubs should got for it! With the team set to have fairly cheap offensive productivity over the next few years, investing in difference-making pitching seems like a no-brainer.

 

Good to see you, Hoops!

 

I worded that poorly, as I think we're all in agreement that the posting fee has to come from somewhere in the Baseball Ops budget, be it "payroll" or some other bucket. What I should have clarified is that my confusion is about the ability to amortize even a part of that posting fee. Because the posting fee is due immediately, and because there's so much uncertainty around the moneys available because of renovations, debt service, etc, knowing that they can pull from future years as part of posting fee would make a huge difference.

 

My understanding is that they can pull some - not a lot. But if the Sherman article is true about the player getting to pick one of the top 2 or 3 bids, then the point is moot. I don't see Tanaka picking the Cubs in that circumstance. They're going to have to draft an ace or trade for one.

[KaiserCesar]

Joel Sherman says in his column today that there will be changes to the system, but it's likely only one team will get to negotiate with Tanaka. Sherman speculates Tanaka will get to choose between the top two or three bidders and pick the one he wants to negotiate with. If this IS the case, I don't see that as an advantage for us whatsoever.

 

That seems like MLB slowly forcing its way out of the posting system. If the rumors around Darvish are true, that could've cost his Japanese team ~40M if he wanted to negotiate with a team other than the Rangers, and you'd almost have to assume the player would choose the non-winning bid in all these situations seeing how Darvish and Matsuzaka got less than market value due to the posting fee being (somewhat) figured into the contract value while none of that money was going to the player.

 

Definitely hard to see Tanaka picking the Cubs, if he has a chance to sign with LA, New York or Boston.

I'd add Seattle to that, Texas possibly too.

 

So, the prospective teams cannot speak with the representatives of the player until he decides? I imagine this is going to lead to teams using back channel communications and leaks from anonymous sources about how much a certain team is willing to spend. It will be interesting to see the dynamic of the posting process and if it will necessitate further changes.

[Guest]

@donnomura: The new posting system between MLB and NPB is being set up, player chooses 1 team out of the top 3 highest Bid, looks good from the outside

[Hairyducked Idiot]

@donnomura: The new posting system between MLB and NPB is being set up, player chooses 1 team out of the top 3 highest Bid, looks good from the outside

 

Well that settles that.

[treebird]

well, if we assume things will continue down the "everything goes exactly wrong" path we've seen the last few years, the cubs will make the highest bid by one dollar and then not get chosen. so that should be fun.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

well, if we assume things will continue down the "everything goes exactly wrong" path we've seen the last few years, the cubs will make the highest bid by one dollar and then not get chosen. so that should be fun.

 

We won't be one of the top 3, but there will be lots of rumors that we were probably the fourth team.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

@donnomura: The new posting system between MLB and NPB is being set up, player chooses 1 team out of the top 3 highest Bid, looks good from the outside

 

http://assets0.ordienetworks.com/images/GifGuide/michael_scott/The-Office-gifs-the-office-14948948-240-196.gif

[davell]

well, if we assume things will continue down the "everything goes exactly wrong" path we've seen the last few years, the cubs will make the highest bid by one dollar and then not get chosen. so that should be fun.

 

We won't be one of the top 3, but there will be lots of rumors that we were probably the fourth team.

Actually, I expect we will be top 3, just won't be the team he picks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe they won't formally confirm who the three are and there will be lots of conflicting reports about whether we are or not.

[Boris]

This [expletive] sucks.

[seanimal]

@donnomura: The new posting system between MLB and NPB is being set up, player chooses 1 team out of the top 3 highest Bid, looks good from the outside

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_BrJovxac8cQ/SouQ02NTT3I/AAAAAAAAATw/aDy8c5GKze8/s400/crying%2520girl.jpg

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, it really does seem like some otherworldy force is actively [expletive] up nearly every possible avenue or advantage the Cubs kinda need to fix this [expletive] mess.

[treebird]

OK, it really does seem like some otherworldy force is actively [expletive] up nearly every possible avenue or advantage the Cubs kinda need to fix this [expletive] mess.

 

great news a new owner who seems to care about the team

 

just kidding the old owner made him promise to never spend any money

 

great news we got theo he's gonna improve the team super fast

 

just kidding it's now illegal to spend money on the farm system and all of his other tricks from boston are now known by everyone

 

great news teams in big markets now get billion dollar tv contracts

 

just kidding we signed a contract with csn for a hundred years and twenty-seven dollars a game

 

great news at least we have rizzo and castro, a true base to build around

 

just kidding both of them suck now

[Guest]

You guys had about -5% confidence that the Cubs could/would be the high bidder for Tanaka, right? Did that change and I missed it before today?

 

 

Since it seems like this would be more important now, Tanaka was teammates with Iwakuma for several years. From a glance it appears to be the only actual teammate of his that's currently playing in MLB.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

great news, Pujols is finally leaving the Cardinals and they will suck now

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, it really does seem like some otherworldy force is actively [expletive] up nearly every possible avenue or advantage the Cubs kinda need to fix this [expletive] mess.

 

great news a new owner who seems to care about the team

 

just kidding the old owner made him promise to never spend any money

 

great news we got theo he's gonna improve the team super fast

 

just kidding it's now illegal to spend money on the farm system and all of his other tricks from boston are now known by everyone

 

great news teams in big markets now get billion dollar tv contracts

 

just kidding we signed a contract with csn for a hundred years and twenty-seven dollars a game

 

great news at least we have rizzo and castro, a true base to build around

 

just kidding both of them suck now

 

CAN I GO NOW?!?

[davell]

You guys had about -5% confidence that the Cubs could/would be the high bidder for Tanaka, right? Did that change and I missed it before today?

 

 

Since it seems like this would be more important now, Tanaka was teammates with Iwakuma for several years. From a glance it appears to be the only actual teammate of his that's currently playing in MLB.

 

 

Irrational or not, I had convinced myself we could use the renovation money that is going unspent this offseason to help our bid quite a bit. Now I have less hope than I did a week ago, which was basically nil.