Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-28-13

[Cubswin11]

Almora 2-5 again and Vogelbach continues to hit and get on base. Any chance those 2 get a taste of Daytona this year?

I think it's safe to assume Almora will get promoted within the next few weeks to Daytona.

 

Daytona will likely make the playoffs so I definitely expect Almora and Vogelbach to get promoted soon. Possibly Bryant too.

You think it's possible Bryant gets to Daytona? Or just promoted, meaning KC?

[Guest]

Almora 2-5 again and Vogelbach continues to hit and get on base. Any chance those 2 get a taste of Daytona this year?

I think it's safe to assume Almora will get promoted within the next few weeks to Daytona.

 

Daytona will likely make the playoffs so I definitely expect Almora and Vogelbach to get promoted soon. Possibly Bryant too.

 

Bryant to Kane County or to Daytona?

 

I meant Daytona. I could see it if he looks comfortable at Boise. It would be aggressive but even if he struggles, it would only be for a few short weeks.

[Guest]

Bryant with a 2 run homer.

[ctcf]

Maple with another great outing so far. 4 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K

[Guest]

Maple with another great outing so far. 4 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K

 

What I said a page ago, only more excitedly.

[Vinestal]

So many exciting players to follow, these are great times to be following Cubs prospects.

[KingCubsFan]

If it's possible to be thrilled and nervous about a prospect at the same time, that's where I currently stand with Baez. His rare skills will undoubtedly land him in the majors, but his K/BB development could be the difference between a dangerous free swinger and one of the top players in the game.

.

This is where I am with Baez as well. I don't think it's nitpicking to be extremely concerned with the BB/K ratio at this point, but the power is unbelievable.

 

But the concern is (and should be) very real. We've seen this story before:

 

Player A (age 19 at high A & AA): .297/.341/.540 34/122 BB/K ratio (133 games)

 

Player B (age 20 at high A & AA): .265/.327/.556 27/110 BB/K ratio (96 games)

 

Player A is Joel Guzman. He was ranked the #5 prospect and was out of MLB by 2010 at the age of 25.

 

Player B is Baez.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think the power difference there is pretty important. Guzman had a .352 BABIP and a pretty fluky XBH:1b ratio, just by eyeballing his stats.

 

He had 23 HRs in 557 PAs. Baez has 25 in 425.

 

Power will take you a looong way in 2010s baseball.

[mul21]

If it's possible to be thrilled and nervous about a prospect at the same time, that's where I currently stand with Baez. His rare skills will undoubtedly land him in the majors, but his K/BB development could be the difference between a dangerous free swinger and one of the top players in the game.

.

This is where I am with Baez as well. I don't think it's nitpicking to be extremely concerned with the BB/K ratio at this point, but the power is unbelievable.

 

But the concern is (and should be) very real. We've seen this story before:

 

Player A (age 19 at high A & AA): .297/.341/.540 34/122 BB/K ratio (133 games)

 

Player B (age 20 at high A & AA): .265/.327/.556 27/110 BB/K ratio (96 games)

 

Player A is Joel Guzman. He was ranked the #5 prospect and was out of MLB by 2010 at the age of 25.

 

Player B is Baez.

 

I don't think you can just look at those numbers in a vacuum though. Baez made a significant adjustment at Daytona and dropped the K rate to like 22% his last month or so. There was a definite progression in his approach and he didn't just get promoted on the premise of a hot month like used to happen. Now, if we don't see a more positive trend on the Ks toward the end of his time in AA, even if it's only down to 22% or so, then I'll be concerned.

[Guest]

Joel Guzman was also garbage at lower levels and did not appear on any Top 100 lists prior to that huge season(that was shown to be a fluke).

[CubsWin]

If it's possible to be thrilled and nervous about a prospect at the same time, that's where I currently stand with Baez. His rare skills will undoubtedly land him in the majors, but his K/BB development could be the difference between a dangerous free swinger and one of the top players in the game.

.

This is where I am with Baez as well. I don't think it's nitpicking to be extremely concerned with the BB/K ratio at this point, but the power is unbelievable.

 

But the concern is (and should be) very real. We've seen this story before:

 

Player A (age 19 at high A & AA): .297/.341/.540 34/122 BB/K ratio (133 games)

 

Player B (age 20 at high A & AA): .265/.327/.556 27/110 BB/K ratio (96 games)

 

Player A is Joel Guzman. He was ranked the #5 prospect and was out of MLB by 2010 at the age of 25.

 

Player B is Baez.

Whereas, I agree that Baez's current K/BB ratio is a concern and something to keep an eye on, this isn't a good comp. Guzman's pedigree is quite different than that of a high 1st round pick. He was signed as an IFA. He's 6'7" and wasn't expect to stick at SS. His power numbers were inferior to Baez. Add in that any single comp doesn't hold much water and I'm not swayed by this comparison.

 

What's important to me when it comes to young prospects (especially those that are a year or two young for his league) is does he show improvement. Baez showed clear improvement in his K/BB ratio before being promoted. I'm willing to wait to see if he shows similar improvement at the AA level.

 

That said, I don't think we should be looking at him as a high-OBP kind of player. He might mature into one, and with the new regime of instructors and developmental plan, he has a greater chance of doing that than in previous FO regimes, but that's not the cloth he's cut from.

 

It's a concern, but the fact that what he's doing is, as Kyle put it, "Ruthian" right now and that he has shown the ability to show patience in his recent past, I'm not overly concerned at the moment.

[Elrhino]

Vogelbach OPSing at .906 for July.

[KingCubsFan]

Joel Guzman was also garbage at lower levels and did not appear on any Top 100 lists prior to that huge season(that was shown to be a fluke).

It was hardly a fluke. The next year in AA he went .287/.351/.475. And he didn't exactly come out of nowhere. He was signed for a 2.25 million bonus out of the DR, which was a record at the time.

[TruffleShuffle]

Being able to throw 5 innings without issuing a walk is a pretty drastic reversal of where Maples was just a month or two ago.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Someone over at BN mentioned that Armando Rivero has 4 IP, 1 BB, 10 K, 0 R in his last two outings.

[Guest]

Someone over at BN mentioned that Armando Rivero has 4 IP, 1 BB, 10 K, 0 R in his last two outings.

 

> Torreyes

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Someone over at BN mentioned that Armando Rivero has 4 IP, 1 BB, 10 K, 0 R in his last two outings.

 

> Torreyes

 

Torreyes is striking out a bunch for Houston. I blame their loser culture.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

[expletive] Maples, man. Wonder what's clicked lately.

[Cubswin11]

[expletive] Maples, man. Wonder what's clicked lately.

Hopefully the mechanical adjustments are finally working/taken to him. Any reports on what his velo is at/what type of secondary stuff he's throwing recently?

[Guest]

god, what a great cubs day

[Little Slide Rooter]

[expletive] Maples, man. Wonder what's clicked lately.

Hopefully the mechanical adjustments are finally working/taken to him. Any reports on what his velo is at/what type of secondary stuff he's throwing recently?

 

Could it also have to do with the pitching coach in Boise pointing out something that the one in KC did not?

 

In 4 games, 13 IP in Boise he owns a 1.38 ERA, 5/15 BB/K. His WHIP isn't anything special at 1.385, but one thing I can't help notice is that in his 58 professional IP, he's only given up 2 HR.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Alcantara seems to have hit quite a rough patch.

 

His past 10 games, he's hit .195/.244/.317. Then again, at 102, it's the most games he's played in a season, so it could be fatigue. Maybe he needs a day off. Worked for Starlin.

 

Quick, Kyle something something.

[Lefty]

Joel Guzman was also garbage at lower levels and did not appear on any Top 100 lists prior to that huge season(that was shown to be a fluke).

It was hardly a fluke. The next year in AA he went .287/.351/.475. And he didn't exactly come out of nowhere. He was signed for a 2.25 million bonus out of the DR, which was a record at the time.

 

Once I see "DR" I realize that he wasn't as young as was thought at the time.

[Guest]

Baez's 2nd HR: http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=29242897&topic_id=&sid=milb&v=3&tcid=tw_video_

 

Radio announcer mentions at that link that the 1st HR was to right field.

[imb]

Baez's 2nd HR: http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=29242897&topic_id=&sid=milb&v=3&tcid=tw_video_

 

Radio announcer mentions at that link that the 1st HR was to right field.

 

that swing is mesmerizing