Who do we trade and what do we expect in return?

[davell]

At our current rate, I guess a selloff is inevitable. How far will they go with it this year? Again, it's looking like there will be more buyers than sellers, so the returns could/should be decent, especially if we sold on a few guys we don't suspect are available. So, who IS available?

 

The extremely unlikely to trade list: Rizzo, Castro, Shark, Castillo, E-Jax, Fujikawa

 

I think Rizzo is 100% safe. I would have said the same about Castro heading into the season, but he's not exactly taking a step forward, so I guess I could see a few rumors pop up concerning him. That said, I think it'd take 2 top 25 type prospects, another top 50 type, and another very solid piece or two to move him. Basically, no one's giving us that anyway, so he's safe. Castillo won't be going anywhere because we have no one to replace him with. Shark? I think we'd much rather extend him, but if a team offered us a top 25 guy, a couple of top 100 guys, and another interesting piece or two, I guess it'd have to be considered anyway. In each of these cases though, those prospects would have to basically be ready to go and be able to be penciled in for 2014. So again, these guys aren't going anywhere. E-Jax is self explanatory, he's not pitched well enough to move and even if he had, I doubt they'd trade a guy in the first year of his deal. Fujikawa hasn't pitched enough and he's likely our closer next year, so again, extremely unlikely to be dealt.

 

The unlikely to be moved group: Wood, Schierholtz, Valbuena, Villanueva, Barney, Rondon

 

Wood has been excellent, so selling high is at least a possibility, but what would it take? By no means is he worth a top 50 prospect and a top 100 guy as well, but I wouldn't trade him for less than that. We need a lefty and we also need guys for our rotation next year. He's a perfect 4th or 5th guy. Schierholtz isn't special, but he's cheap and under control next year, so I wouldn't deal him either, unless somehow a team gave us a top 100ish type for him, which I can't see happening. Valbuena falls into the same group as Schierholtz, in my mind. And again, I can't see a team giving us a top 100 type for him, so he holds more value to us, in my mind, just to keep him. I'd be OK with dealing Villanueva, but again, I'd want a top 100 type for him or else he's excellent SP depth for us in 2014 or a very solid bullpen piece, of which we need many. Barney? He'd be on the block if its me. But I doubt he will be. Nor, do I see a team giving us a top 50 type and a top 10 guy from a decent system as well for him. But that would be my asking price. The glove is extremely valuable and I think he's a league average 2B offensively once all is said and done. I may be willing to take a bit less for him, but only if we think Valbuena or Watkins is a true starting option in 2014. Still, with that sort of asking price, I doubt anyone would bite. Rondon has shown flashes and I don't think we can trade him anyway. My guess is he'll be in our bullpen mix heading into 2014.

 

So, we're very likely heading into 2014 with Castillo, Rizzo,Barney, Castro, Valbuena and Schierholtz on offense and Shark, E-Jax, Wood, Villanueva, and Fujikawa on the pitching side of things.

 

Trade this group if it makes sense: Garza, Soriano, Russell, Hairston

 

Trade Garza or extend? If he'd sign a 4/52 type deal to stay versus getting a return of a top 50 prospect and a guy that fits inside our top 10, what do you do? I'm honestly thinking I'd extend him. But his health is a true concern for me going forward. That said, I think its kind of unrealistic to get him to sign that type of extension if he's pitching well enough to get a team to offer us that type of return. So, I could see him agreeing to give us a 5/80 type extension versus and a team willing to give us a top 50 prospect OR a top 100 type AND a guy that fits in our top 10. If this winds up being the case, I'd trade him. If he doesn't pitch well enough to get us at least a top 100 guy in return, but stays healthy? Keep him, offer him the qualifier, see if he'll extend at closer to the 4/52 range over the offseason or take the comp pick, if he won't.

 

Soriano needs to get hot. If he does and we're willing to pay 75% of his remaining contract, I'd expect a top 100 guy in return or a package that includes 2 guys that fit into our top 10. There won't be power bats available at the deadline. If he's not going to get hot, just keep him and hope he produces decently next year.

 

Russell is interesting to me, because he's excellent as a setup guy, although Sveum misuses him somewhat at times. That said, I'd trade him if I could get close to the same type of return we got on Marshall. No, he's not as good, but he's got more control, so it'd take that for me to move him.

 

Hairston has sucked, but I doubt it'll continue. I'd like to see him back next year, unless a team gives us a couple of guys that fit into our top 20 for him and I doubt that happens. So bring him back as a 4th OFer, I guess.

 

Trade no matter what guys: Feldman, DeJesus, Gregg

 

Hopefully a team bites on Feldman early. He can be dealt after June 16th. I hope he continues to pitch well, but I'm not confident of it, so I'd deal him as early as possible. To me, I think we can get a borderline top 100 type if he's still pitching well at the time he's dealt and its early. If he comes back down to earth, I think a guy that fits in our top 10 is realistic. I put DeJesus in this group, even if he's got another year of control, because I think we'll upgrade his spot over the offseason anyway. That said, I expect about the same type of return for him as I would on Feldman. Maybe slightly higher, only because I think he may have a slightly better shot at continuing his early season run. If Gregg stays remotely on course, he's tradeable, likely for a guy or two that are borderline top 30 types in our system.

 

The trade if anyone takes them group: Marmol, Navarro, Sweeney

 

Pretty self explanatory here. Eat the cash left on Marmol and see what he brings back. My guess is if he shows flashes, we'll get a top 20ish type guy in return. Navarro and Sweeney maybe bring back a Jeff Baker type return.

 

The group I could see dealt for IFA money: Clevenger, Raley, Rusin, Vitters, Dolis, Watkins, Borbon, Alberto Cabrera

 

There aren't that many teams likely looking to add IFA money, in my opinion. Plus, there ARE teams that won't come close to spending their allotment and I think it'll create a buyers market here. We're rumored to be wanting more money here and I think the teams looking to trade out of theirs won't be able to ask for much in return. Plus, I can see where a team would actually consider taking a fringe major leaguer in return for a 3rd or 4th round IFA allotment. They could see that as a better investment than a 16 year old they just gave a 200K bonus. We'll see though, its new territory obviously.

 

So flame away, are the returns off? Anyone you'd move to different groupings? I hope its a busy deadline, at any rate.....

Edited May 26, 2013 by davell

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm going to guess that Garza is extended by the end of the season.

 

Just for Fun;

 

This all several weeks before deadline

-DeJesus: his 2014 team option adds value. Random prediction: sent to win now or die trying Detroit along with Marmol for Avisail Garcia and 2 PTBNL/lottery tix

-Soriano: we eat 95% of his salary to TB for Tim Beckham and Jeff Niemann to the delight of many and the chagrin of many others.

-Large deal with A's involving Feldman, Vogelbach, Vitters for Jarrod Parker, among others.

 

And at the deadline:

With a combination of our prospects and those acquired via these trades, Theo pulls a rabbit out of his hat named Giancarlo Stanton without giving up Soler, Almora, Baez, or Johnson.

[Guest]

I think it would be silly to trade Cabrera or Vitters for international free agency cap space.

 

I also think you're being a bit optimistic in some of the prospect packages you're hoping for.

[treebird]

let's not let you be in charge of deciding what it would take to trade for castro

[davell]

I think it would be silly to trade Cabrera or Vitters for international free agency cap space.

 

I also think you're being a bit optimistic in some of the prospect packages you're hoping for.

 

I'm not a fan of Cabrera personally, but him, Vitters, and Watkins-I should have made clear I'd want a solid to very solid number of IFA money for. Vitters, I'd probably want some sort of guy that'd slot into our top 30 as well. Example being him for Marlins top slot amount(1.763 mill) and a middling prospect.

 

As far as the proposed trade values, in MOST cases, I think I'm asking too much, because I would be perfectly fine in keeping the guys around, if I didn't get it. Just curious, who did you think I was asking way too much for?

[pitchcs]

Who's giving Garza 5 years? Better not be the Cubs.

[Guest]

The Cubs have an asset at each of the most popular positions that will be inquired about, OF, SP, and RP. DeJesus is having a great year, has a track record of success and a pretty cheap option for next year. I'd think long and hard about selling high because I don't think you can expect him at 34 to be head and shoulders above the alternatives. Feldman and Gregg both are off to unsustainable great starts, but as impending FA you hope that enough advance scouts see some change in them that maximizes the return. As for Garza, I don't much think it's worth trading him unless he has 7-8 more starts like his first one and looks like an ace in a market that doesn't have much in the way of top flight pitching.

 

For returns, I'd try as much as possible to make those assets one stop shopping for somebody. Maybe a SP goes down in Arizona and you can try to sucker Towers into DeJesus and Feldman for something pretty good(Skaggs!). Maybe the Phillies linger in the WC chase enough for Amaro to do something stupid and want to splurge for those two as well. The Angels might be a match for a couple of Garza/Feldman/Gregg too. I'd aim for upper minors prospects myself to give a boost to the immediate future, as well as try to balance out the depth of the system a bit.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I actually think that Schierholtz is more likely to be moved than some think. He has another year or two under team control, which adds value. They could trade him and see if Sweeney can take his place.

 

Sweeney's an FA after this season, and I can't imagine that anything Sweeney does will drive up his cost. While Schierholtz has always had more power, at least at the big league level, Sweeney's always had the better OBP, which they seem to value more than ever.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd really rather keep as many of the 2014 control guys as possible. Even DeJesus. I don't see any reason to be cutting into that team.

 

Garza, Feldman, Navarro, Marmol, Gregg, Baker. Should be able to get a few decent prospects out of that.

[davell]

I'd really rather keep as many of the 2014 control guys as possible. Even DeJesus. I don't see any reason to be cutting into that team.

 

Garza, Feldman, Navarro, Marmol, Gregg, Baker. Should be able to get a few decent prospects out of that.

 

While I agree with the overall idea, I don't think it'll be hard for us to replace DeJesus' 2014 production. I certainly don't expect a continuance of what he's currently doing obviously. Between Ellsbury, Granderson, Chris Young, trade targets, Brett Jackson- I think we'll be fine moving DeJesus.

[davell]

If we go into next year like this, is it so bad?

 

C Castillo .5

1B Rizzo 1.25

2B Barney 2.75(arb guess)

ss Castro 5

3B Valbuena 2 (arb guess)

LF Soriano 18

CF

RF Schierholtz 3.5(arb guess)

Bench Hairston 2.5, Watkins .5, Clevenger .5, Borbon .5

 

Total of 37M, plus Soler and Concepcion contracts(around 4.5) equals 41.5

 

SP Samardzija 6.5(arb guess)

Garza 15

E-Jax 11

Wood 2 (arb guess)

BP

Fujikawa 4.5

Villanueva 5

Vizcaino .5

Russell 1.75

 

Total of 46.25

 

Combined total 87.75M

 

Less obviously, if Garza is gone and/or Soriano is dealt. But, with that squad, add an Ellsbury or Choo to it offensively and a few solid bullpen arms, its an above average team. Not accounting for trades or help from within the system during 2014.

[wekim81]

I'd really rather keep as many of the 2014 control guys as possible. Even DeJesus. I don't see any reason to be cutting into that team.

 

Garza, Feldman, Navarro, Marmol, Gregg, Baker. Should be able to get a few decent prospects out of that.

Agree with this across the board, with the exception that i doubt we'll be able to move Scott Baker. He stole $ from us.

[Guest]

I'd really rather keep as many of the 2014 control guys as possible. Even DeJesus. I don't see any reason to be cutting into that team.

 

Garza, Feldman, Navarro, Marmol, Gregg, Baker. Should be able to get a few decent prospects out of that.

 

While I agree with the overall idea, I don't think it'll be hard for us to replace DeJesus' 2014 production. I certainly don't expect a continuance of what he's currently doing obviously. Between Ellsbury, Granderson, Chris Young, trade targets, Brett Jackson- I think we'll be fine moving DeJesus.

 

Choo in RF.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'd really rather keep as many of the 2014 control guys as possible. Even DeJesus. I don't see any reason to be cutting into that team.

 

Garza, Feldman, Navarro, Marmol, Gregg, Baker. Should be able to get a few decent prospects out of that.

 

I agree to a point. While there's no reason to rush Soriano, DeJesus, Schierholtz, and Villanueva out of town just for the sake of doing so, it depends on who's looking, who else is looking, how desperate they are, what the available alternatives are and of course, what the 2014 plan is. Granted, we can shop the same guys next year if we're in the same position, but they'll be a year older and all impending free agents.

 

The only 3 guys that should be off limits at this point are Castro, Rizzo, and Shark. Wood and Russell would be in the next tier, that they'd be very costly but but by no means untouchable.

[A New Era]

I think we would trade Soriano, Garza, Feldman. Those will be the big 3. And maybe a couple others as fill-ins.

 

With that, I think we will go after a competitive balance pick, and net 2 top 100 prospects. Maybe one in the 50's and one that's just on the tail end of the top 100.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd just as soon keep DeJesus and focus the money elsewhere. Or wait until you actually have one of those big FA outfielders signed before you move DeJesus or Soriano. But I won't pitch a fit if they trade one at the deadline.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'd just as soon keep DeJesus and focus the money elsewhere. Or wait until you actually have one of those big FA outfielders signed before you move DeJesus or Soriano. But I won't pitch a fit if they trade one at the deadline.

 

If Brett Jackson looks remotely ready, I say trade DeJesus. Again, it depends in the plan for 2014. If they don't plan on some big additions, trade DeJesus and audition Jackson and maybe Szczur.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd just as soon keep DeJesus and focus the money elsewhere. Or wait until you actually have one of those big FA outfielders signed before you move DeJesus or Soriano. But I won't pitch a fit if they trade one at the deadline.

 

If Brett Jackson looks remotely ready, I say trade DeJesus. Again, it depends in the plan for 2014. If they don't plan on some big additions, trade DeJesus and audition Jackson and maybe Szczur.

 

Brett Jackson is hitting 246/331/390 (with a .342 BABIP) and a 27.6% K rate in his third AAA stint. His ability to have any influence on the Cubs' long-term plans is over.

[davell]

I think we would trade Soriano, Garza, Feldman. Those will be the big 3. And maybe a couple others as fill-ins.

 

With that, I think we will go after a competitive balance pick, and net 2 top 100 prospects. Maybe one in the 50's and one that's just on the tail end of the top 100.

 

You can almost pin it down to who we may actually be able to swing a trade with and who would be involved on our end. The teams with picks 34-39 are the Royals, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, and Tigers. The teams with picks 69-74 are the Padres, Indians,Rockies, A's, Brewers, and Marlins.

 

Feldman can't even be dealt before the draft, Garza hasn't built up enough value to even consider dealing him right now, Soriano hasn't played all that well as of yet, so it leaves DeJesus basically.

 

Then, you can eliminate the Marlins, Padres, and Brewers since they aren't contending. You may even be able to throw the Royals in that group, but they have a shot at bouncing back in. Then eliminate the Diamondbacks,Tigers, Reds, Rockies, and A's because they aren't in need of OF help.

 

That leaves the Orioles, Indians, and maybe the Royals as the only landing spots for DeJesus within the next 10 days. I can't see the Indians going that direction, since they more or less just need a DH. The Royals could panic and they liked him a bunch while he was there, so I guess thats possible. But not likely since they're really floundering currently. Leaves the O's, with an OF of Reimold, Jones, Markakis, and McLouth......Just not a great match there either.

 

Basically, I've given up on getting a comp pick.

[davell]

At this point, I suspect DeJesus will be dealt, but Borbon will get the bulk of the PA afterwards. My guess is unless Brett comes on strong, he'll get a September showcase to prove himself.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'd just as soon keep DeJesus and focus the money elsewhere. Or wait until you actually have one of those big FA outfielders signed before you move DeJesus or Soriano. But I won't pitch a fit if they trade one at the deadline.

 

If Brett Jackson looks remotely ready, I say trade DeJesus. Again, it depends in the plan for 2014. If they don't plan on some big additions, trade DeJesus and audition Jackson and maybe Szczur.

 

Brett Jackson is hitting 246/331/390 (with a .342 BABIP) and a 27.6% K rate in his third AAA stint. His ability to have any influence on the Cubs' long-term plans is over.

 

My thinking is that both he and Vitters are in shot or get off the pot mode. If not later this year, then next year they should be either traded or thrown into the fire. Whether or not they're ready, I don't think that there's much more benefit to them being in AAA.

 

As for DeJesus, he needs to be cashed in. I think he could very well contribute next year, but not beyond. He's at his peak value. Even if we spend the next year or so cycling through Borbon, Sweeny, Jackson, Szczur. Again, this is assuming that he has as much value as is perceived. If we can't get anything of value, then we keep him.

[Neuby]

Barney

Dejesus

Soriano

Feldman

Garza

Gregg

Marmol

Navarro

Russell

 

Would love to see the Cubs sell high on Russell similar to the Marshall deal a few years back.

[Sammy Sofa]

They DO have to actually field a team next year. You can't do the "firesale" thing year after year.

[A New Era]

I think we would trade Soriano, Garza, Feldman. Those will be the big 3. And maybe a couple others as fill-ins.

 

With that, I think we will go after a competitive balance pick, and net 2 top 100 prospects. Maybe one in the 50's and one that's just on the tail end of the top 100.

 

You can almost pin it down to who we may actually be able to swing a trade with and who would be involved on our end. The teams with picks 34-39 are the Royals, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, and Tigers. The teams with picks 69-74 are the Padres, Indians,Rockies, A's, Brewers, and Marlins.

 

Feldman can't even be dealt before the draft, Garza hasn't built up enough value to even consider dealing him right now, Soriano hasn't played all that well as of yet, so it leaves DeJesus basically.

 

Then, you can eliminate the Marlins, Padres, and Brewers since they aren't contending. You may even be able to throw the Royals in that group, but they have a shot at bouncing back in. Then eliminate the Diamondbacks,Tigers, Reds, Rockies, and A's because they aren't in need of OF help.

 

That leaves the Orioles, Indians, and maybe the Royals as the only landing spots for DeJesus within the next 10 days. I can't see the Indians going that direction, since they more or less just need a DH. The Royals could panic and they liked him a bunch while he was there, so I guess thats possible. But not likely since they're really floundering currently. Leaves the O's, with an OF of Reimold, Jones, Markakis, and McLouth......Just not a great match there either.

 

Basically, I've given up on getting a comp pick.

 

When I said one in the top 50 and one in the top 100 I meant MLB top 100 current prospects, not draft #. And I forgot to add Dejesus. With Dejesus, Soriano, Garza, and Feldman I think we should reasonable expect to net ONE comp pick (the one first round) and TWO current MLB top 100 prospect types, one of them that's just on the edge of the top 100 and one legit right in the middle of the top 100. If we can't get that for Dejesus, Sori, Garz and Feld then I say we should keep Dejesus and Garza and just try to net prospet"y" guys for whoever else isn't in the long term picture.

[AlwaysaCub]

At this point, for Valbuena, do you all think Theo/Jed should sell "high" on his success - though he's fallen off slightly recently - or hang on to him as a potential solution at 3b?

 

He's an average-plus defender at 3rd, and as a hitter has shown pretty good secondary skills, but questionable ability to hit for average. .250 is his best season average so far in his career, and he's basically there right now. He's looking to have a 2.5-3 WAR season if his playing time holds and his AVG doesn't fluctuate. But he's playing at a pace equivalent over a full healthy season to about 25 double, 20 homers and 70-80 walks. Of course, he has barely flashed hints of those kinds of abilities before this year

 

Valbuena won't become a free agent until 2017. He could net a healthy return if someone were to put too much weight into his recent success.