Castro

[Guest]

Castro makes less than 8 million next year, and Jonathan Herrera has been on the roster all year. Unless you think the magnitude of Castro's struggles make you think it's impossible he can return to being useful offensively(I don't), then I don't see why you'd let him go for salary relief. Opinions can vary, but unless 1) Baez really shows in August he can be productive at the MLB level immediately and/or 2) LaStella/Alcantara returns from the dead and shows optimism that they can be a hedge for Baez failing(Russell too for that matter), I don't know if there's a better way to spend that 7+ million for MIF depth.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castro makes less than 8 million next year, and Jonathan Herrera has been on the roster all year. Unless you think the magnitude of Castro's struggles make you think it's impossible he can return to being useful offensively(I don't), then I don't see why you'd let him go for salary relief. Opinions can vary, but unless 1) Baez really shows in August he can be productive at the MLB level immediately and/or 2) LaStella/Alcantara returns from the dead and shows optimism that they can be a hedge for Baez failing(Russell too for that matter), I don't know if there's a better way to spend that 7+ million for MIF depth.

 

Put it this way: If Castro were a free agent today, would you be willing to pay $38m for him?

[Sammy Sofa]

Castro makes less than 8 million next year, and Jonathan Herrera has been on the roster all year. Unless you think the magnitude of Castro's struggles make you think it's impossible he can return to being useful offensively(I don't), then I don't see why you'd let him go for salary relief. Opinions can vary, but unless 1) Baez really shows in August he can be productive at the MLB level immediately and/or 2) LaStella/Alcantara returns from the dead and shows optimism that they can be a hedge for Baez failing(Russell too for that matter), I don't know if there's a better way to spend that 7+ million for MIF depth.

 

Put it this way: If Castro were a free agent today, would you be willing to pay $38m for him?

 

What point do you think this is making?

[Guest]

Castro makes less than 8 million next year, and Jonathan Herrera has been on the roster all year. Unless you think the magnitude of Castro's struggles make you think it's impossible he can return to being useful offensively(I don't), then I don't see why you'd let him go for salary relief. Opinions can vary, but unless 1) Baez really shows in August he can be productive at the MLB level immediately and/or 2) LaStella/Alcantara returns from the dead and shows optimism that they can be a hedge for Baez failing(Russell too for that matter), I don't know if there's a better way to spend that 7+ million for MIF depth.

 

Put it this way: If Castro were a free agent today, would you be willing to pay $38m for him?

 

Maybe? Considering the construction of the roster I'd probably be more willing to gamble a few million on Castro's upside compared to signing the FA alternatives or paying in prospects for a cheaper MIF depth hedge.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What point do you think this is making?

 

That letting Castro go on August waivers would be a defensible opinion. You don't even have to agree with it, you just have to not think it's utterly crazybuckets.

[Sammy Sofa]

What point do you think this is making?

 

That letting Castro go on August waivers would be a defensible opinion. You don't even have to agree with it, you just have to not think it's utterly crazybuckets.

 

But it would be an overreaction at this point; he has a decent chance of rebounding and at least being serviceable next season. He's not making a ton of money next season and there's really not a better option they need to seek out, especially if they keep him in a backup role.

 

Like I said, technically anything that frees up money for the relatively budget-strapped Cubs is defensible; that doesn't actually mean it's automatically the best decision.

[CubColtPacer]

What point do you think this is making?

 

That letting Castro go on August waivers would be a defensible opinion. You don't even have to agree with it, you just have to not think it's utterly crazybuckets.

 

But it would be an overreaction at this point; he has a decent chance of rebounding and at least being serviceable next season. He's not making a ton of money next season and there's really not a better option they need to seek out, especially if they keep him in a backup role.

 

Like I said, technically anything that frees up money for the relatively budget-strapped Cubs is defensible; that doesn't actually mean it's automatically the best decision.

 

The problem isn't really Castro's money for next season, it's the money he's guaranteed after that. If he has a poor 2016, there very well may be no teams interested in him, and the Cubs would just have to ride out a very expensive backup MI for three more years. Keeping him until he's proven that he's flamed out destroys the chance to pass off the value that contract relief would give you.

 

Considering the updside on him is maybe a 3 win player, and the peripherals are mostly trending in the wrong direction over the course of his career, it may be the best move to let him go if some team is willing to take on the entire contract. It's a reasonably tough decision at this point.

 

I probably wouldn't do it because as horrible as he's been this year, losing a MI option this late in the season could leave the Cubs perilously thin with an injury or two. How the budget is going to evolve over the next 3-4 years changes the decision quite a bit as well, and that's something the Cubs have a much better idea of than we do.

[Sammy Sofa]

Can someone smarter than me explain why Castro's 2014 is sometimes talked about like it was smoke and mirrors and merely just a blip in what's apparently been a now 3 season decline? I've seen that season dismissed here a few times and looking at both BR and FG I don't get it. FG seems to think it was his best season offensively, and BR arguably has it as his second best. I don't see an obvious in-season decline at first glance, so what gives? My desire for them to hold on to him is largely hinged on not seeing that season as a fluke, so I'd genuinely be curious to have someone breakdown for me what the warning signs are from that season.

[davell]

I wasn't aware that it had been honestly. I don't see a lot of red flags....The BABIP was in line with every season other than his 2 bad ones. I guess his LD% being the highest of his career could be considered as something that maybe propped him up a bit. The GB% being the lowest of his career may do the same, I guess. The overall contact rate dropping(but still very solid). I don't know, that's all I've got and wouldn't have been that alarmed by those things. Maybe others see something else though, sifting thru Fangraphs isn't a strong suit of mine either.

[Sammy Sofa]

I wasn't aware that it had been honestly. I don't see a lot of red flags....The BABIP was in line with every season other than his 2 bad ones. I guess his LD% being the highest of his career could be considered as something that maybe propped him up a bit. The GB% being the lowest of his career may do the same, I guess. The overall contact rate dropping(but still very solid). I don't know, that's all I've got and wouldn't have been that alarmed by those things. Maybe others see something else though, sifting thru Fangraphs isn't a strong suit of mine either.

 

I'm mainly just wondering if anyone saw discussion or an article or something in the offseason that called out any red flags or warning signs. If anything it seemed like the opposite and I only remember a few things about why the Cubs SHOULDN'T trade him in the offseason.

 

Most of my "defense" of him stems from the simplistic approach of, "OK, if he was able to rebound so well in 2014 from 2013, why can't he do that again?"

[CubColtPacer]

Castro's 2014 is in many ways what you would want for him. Lots of hard contact, increased home run production, best walk rate of his career.

 

It also was a very different player than he had been in 2010-2012. Best HR/FB rate of his career, as was said above best walk rate, higher strikeout rate than his first three years, noticeably worse contact percentage (even contact percentage in the strike zone), pulled the ball quite a bit more. One thing that was consistent with 2010-2012 was the super high BABIP of .337, but since he didn't achieve it the same way it was hard to tell if it was for the same reasons. It was a very good season that wasn't necessarily a fluke, but it was also so different from the rest of his career that no one knew if it would continue or not.

 

The slash stats are so ridiculously similar to 2010-2012 that it's easy to just lump 2014 and say that all 5 of his seasons are instructive going forward. And while that's true in some sense, in many other ways the Castro of the first couple years is simply gone. If he does come back to being good, it will probably be closer to the 2014 version of himself, but who knows how likely that it is.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wasn't aware that it had been honestly. I don't see a lot of red flags....The BABIP was in line with every season other than his 2 bad ones. I guess his LD% being the highest of his career could be considered as something that maybe propped him up a bit. The GB% being the lowest of his career may do the same, I guess. The overall contact rate dropping(but still very solid). I don't know, that's all I've got and wouldn't have been that alarmed by those things. Maybe others see something else though, sifting thru Fangraphs isn't a strong suit of mine either.

 

I'm mainly just wondering if anyone saw discussion or an article or something in the offseason that called out any red flags or warning signs. If anything it seemed like the opposite and I only remember a few things about why the Cubs SHOULDN'T trade him in the offseason.

 

Most of my "defense" of him stems from the simplistic approach of, "OK, if he was able to rebound so well in 2014 from 2013, why can't he do that again?"

 

But if he rebounds, how can we or potential trade partners trust he won't tank again?

[Sammy Sofa]

Castro's 2014 is in many ways what you would want for him. Lots of hard contact, increased home run production, best walk rate of his career.

 

It also was a very different player than he had been in 2010-2012. Best HR/FB rate of his career, as was said above best walk rate, higher strikeout rate than his first three years, noticeably worse contact percentage (even contact percentage in the strike zone), pulled the ball quite a bit more. One thing that was consistent with 2010-2012 was the super high BABIP of .337, but since he didn't achieve it the same way it was hard to tell if it was for the same reasons. It was a very good season that wasn't necessarily a fluke, but it was also so different from the rest of his career that no one knew if it would continue or not.

 

The slash stats are so ridiculously similar to 2010-2012 that it's easy to just lump 2014 and say that all 5 of his seasons are instructive going forward. And while that's true in some sense, in many other ways the Castro of the first couple years is simply gone. If he does come back to being good, it will probably be closer to the 2014 version of himself, but who knows how likely that it is.

 

So what is so different this year? Is he similarly bad this year as he was in 2013?

 

He just seems to have so much trouble making any kind of major adjustment in-season. I mean, most players are going to have trouble with major changes to varying degrees, but it seems like he just keeps trying to pull the ball to duplicate what happened last year, but when that doesn't work he just can't try anything else.

[Sammy Sofa]

But if he rebounds, how can we or potential trade partners trust he won't tank again?

 

You could say that about any player that has a terrible season. When you put it that way then why should anyone bother letting him play professional baseball ever again? Teams convince themselves to take chances on risky players all the time.

 

Plus you see inconsistent players picked up by other teams all the time; the idea of a change of scenery or that they KNOW they can fix him or what have you is strong with baseball FO's. As bad as his bad seasons have been, his good seasons have been good enough and he's young enough that teams are going to be tempted, whether it's the Cubs keeping him or a team trading for him or the Cubs putting him through waivers.

 

What did you think he was going to do coming in to this season?

Edited August 2, 2015 by Sammy Sofa

[davell]

I suspect he'll have a couple of good seasons going forward.(not necessarily better than he's already achieved though) With where we are as a team now, my guess is we just want something that's more consistent. Which doesn't bode well for Javy either obviously.

 

That's why I think we've already been linked to Howie Kendrick personally.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But if he rebounds, how can we or potential trade partners trust he won't tank again?

 

You could say that about any player that has a terrible season.

 

You can say it more strongly about players who have a second terrible season. The second one is critical.

[Sammy Sofa]

But if he rebounds, how can we or potential trade partners trust he won't tank again?

 

You could say that about any player that has a terrible season.

 

You can say it more strongly about players who have a second terrible season. The second one is critical.

 

In what context? You say that like it's a flat rule. What if he had been good again this year, but then terrible next year instead; is that just as bad? It's just "two bad seasons out three" and that's it? What do you think of 2014? Why do you think he's bad this year? Why do you think he's unlikely to ever bounce back?

 

Kyle, this is someone actually ENCOURAGING you to talk about baseball.

[CubColtPacer]

Castro's 2014 is in many ways what you would want for him. Lots of hard contact, increased home run production, best walk rate of his career.

 

It also was a very different player than he had been in 2010-2012. Best HR/FB rate of his career, as was said above best walk rate, higher strikeout rate than his first three years, noticeably worse contact percentage (even contact percentage in the strike zone), pulled the ball quite a bit more. One thing that was consistent with 2010-2012 was the super high BABIP of .337, but since he didn't achieve it the same way it was hard to tell if it was for the same reasons. It was a very good season that wasn't necessarily a fluke, but it was also so different from the rest of his career that no one knew if it would continue or not.

 

The slash stats are so ridiculously similar to 2010-2012 that it's easy to just lump 2014 and say that all 5 of his seasons are instructive going forward. And while that's true in some sense, in many other ways the Castro of the first couple years is simply gone. If he does come back to being good, it will probably be closer to the 2014 version of himself, but who knows how likely that it is.

 

So what is so different this year? Is he similarly bad this year as he was in 2013?

 

He just seems to have so much trouble making any kind of major adjustment in-season. I mean, most players are going to have trouble with major changes to varying degrees, but it seems like he just keeps trying to pull the ball to duplicate what happened last year, but when that doesn't work he just can't try anything else.

 

Just above everything changed this year. Walk rate came down to the worst of his career. HR/FB fell from 10.3 to 5.5%. IFFB% is the highest of his career. GB/FB is the highest of his career. He replaced a ton of hard hit balls with soft ones. LD% is by far the worst of his career. BABIP dropped precipitously.

 

2013 was better in many ways. 31.7% hard contact rate vs. 22.8% this year. 13.5% soft rate vs 24.4% this year. 19.9% LD rate vs 15.4% this year. 7.6% IFFB rate vs 13.2% this year. Slightly better contact numbers. The only things that pop out that this year has an advantage in are lower BABIP (.276 vs .290) and lower HR/FB (5.5 vs 6.3) but considering the vast differences in type of contact, those differences should probably be higher than they are.

 

As you said, he keeps pulling the ball and he's not getting results any more. And now he doesn't seem to know what to do.

[Sammy Sofa]

And who are some players with similar career tracts to this point? I'd be very curious to see that.

[Sammy Sofa]

Castro's 2014 is in many ways what you would want for him. Lots of hard contact, increased home run production, best walk rate of his career.

 

It also was a very different player than he had been in 2010-2012. Best HR/FB rate of his career, as was said above best walk rate, higher strikeout rate than his first three years, noticeably worse contact percentage (even contact percentage in the strike zone), pulled the ball quite a bit more. One thing that was consistent with 2010-2012 was the super high BABIP of .337, but since he didn't achieve it the same way it was hard to tell if it was for the same reasons. It was a very good season that wasn't necessarily a fluke, but it was also so different from the rest of his career that no one knew if it would continue or not.

 

The slash stats are so ridiculously similar to 2010-2012 that it's easy to just lump 2014 and say that all 5 of his seasons are instructive going forward. And while that's true in some sense, in many other ways the Castro of the first couple years is simply gone. If he does come back to being good, it will probably be closer to the 2014 version of himself, but who knows how likely that it is.

 

So what is so different this year? Is he similarly bad this year as he was in 2013?

 

He just seems to have so much trouble making any kind of major adjustment in-season. I mean, most players are going to have trouble with major changes to varying degrees, but it seems like he just keeps trying to pull the ball to duplicate what happened last year, but when that doesn't work he just can't try anything else.

 

Just above everything changed this year. Walk rate came down to the worst of his career. HR/FB fell from 10.3 to 5.5%. IFFB% is the highest of his career. GB/FB is the highest of his career. He replaced a ton of hard hit balls with soft ones. LD% is by far the worst of his career. BABIP dropped precipitously.

 

2013 was better in many ways. 31.7% hard contact rate vs. 22.8% this year. 13.5% soft rate vs 24.4% this year. 19.9% LD rate vs 15.4% this year. 7.6% IFFB rate vs 13.2% this year. Slightly better contact numbers. The only things that pop out that this year has an advantage in are lower BABIP (.276 vs .290) and lower HR/FB (5.5 vs 6.3) but considering the vast differences in type of contact, those differences should probably be higher than they are.

 

As you said, he keeps pulling the ball and he's not getting results any more. And now he doesn't seem to know what to do.

 

Thanks for all of this. It's still pretty baffling, though. Makes me wonder how much of 2014 was actually coaching or adjustments or basically just him deciding, "I'm doing this now." It seemed like the talk was 2013 was when they tried to really shift his approach to something more in line with what the FO would seemingly prefer and it simply didn't take and he ended up wallowing the whole season. So then where did the changes come from for 2014? Did the team want that approach to continue or was it basically, "hey, you do your thing."

 

Obviously a lot of that is me just wondering out loud and not expecting you to have the answers. The whole thing just really bums me out; Castro's debut has been my favorite Cub moment post-2008 and I've really been a fan of his and figured he'd be a productive player with the Cubs for a long, long time. I just don't understand how a player has a season THIS horrendous 5 years in after he's been able to have so much success.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In what context? You say that like it's a flat rule. What if he had been good again this year, but then terrible next year instead; is that just as bad? It's just "two bad seasons out three" and that's it? What do you think of 2014? Why do you think he's bad this year? Why do you think he's unlikely to ever bounce back?

 

Kyle, this is someone actually ENCOURAGING you to talk about baseball.

 

I didn't think I was being vague. A second terrible season is significantly more difficult to write off as a fluke than the first, and more strongly changes the projection going forward.

 

Nobody has a good answer on what to do with his 2012-2013-2014-2015 combo in terms of projection. If you go high, you're ignoring two very bad seasons. If you go low, you're ignoring two decent ones. If you split the difference, you're picking the one thing he's least likely to do.

 

The best I can come up with is "recency is the tiebreaker," but that's not a very satisfactory answer.

[Sammy Sofa]

In what context? You say that like it's a flat rule. What if he had been good again this year, but then terrible next year instead; is that just as bad? It's just "two bad seasons out three" and that's it? What do you think of 2014? Why do you think he's bad this year? Why do you think he's unlikely to ever bounce back?

 

Kyle, this is someone actually ENCOURAGING you to talk about baseball.

 

I didn't think I was being vague. A second terrible season is significantly more difficult to write off as a fluke than the first, and more strongly changes the projection going forward.

 

Nobody has a good answer on what to do with his 2012-2013-2014-2015 combo in terms of projection. If you go high, you're ignoring two very bad seasons. If you go low, you're ignoring two decent ones. If you split the difference, you're picking the one thing he's least likely to do.

 

The best I can come up with is "recency is the tiebreaker," but that's not a very satisfactory answer.

 

Fair enough. The part that was "vague" is when you just definitely declared about "players who have a second bad season" without specifying, as if players having two bad seasons at any point in their career is some kind of rule about something.

[jersey cubs fan]

Can someone smarter than me explain why Castro's 2014 is sometimes talked about like it was smoke and mirrors and merely just a blip in what's apparently been a now 3 season decline? I've seen that season dismissed here a few times and looking at both BR and FG I don't get it. FG seems to think it was his best season offensively, and BR arguably has it as his second best. I don't see an obvious in-season decline at first glance, so what gives? My desire for them to hold on to him is largely hinged on not seeing that season as a fluke, so I'd genuinely be curious to have someone breakdown for me what the warning signs are from that season.

I do not believe I have seen any such discussion about 2014.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I swear Castro somehow has the power to turn rational people's brains into a pile of mush.

 

Yes, by OPSing under .600 this season, he's definitely done that.

 

Yes, everyone knows he's had a terrible season. Talking about DFAing or releasing him at this point is dumb.

 

Incredibly. At this point, they may as well just DL him, call up Javy, and send him back in for repairs in the offseason.

 

Because that's something you can just do with no repercussions.

 

Is it? Because who the hell knows, assuming the player is down with it. As I recall, a few years back when Zack Greinke came out with his social anxiety disorder, and suddenly underpermforming players such as Dontrelle Willis and Milton Bradley were coming out of the woodwork saying "oh yeah, I have that too," there was debate (I believe S.I.) over whether or not a seperate DL for "mental breaks" should be a thing. Maybe it should be.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Average fWAR per season, going backwards:

 

All six years: 1.5

Last five years: 1.2

Last four years: 1.1

Last three years: 0.5

Last two years: 0.8

This year: -1.2

 

There's no endpoint you can choose that makes Castro's career average at this point even an average starter.