Random Cubs Musings

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm sure this will piss some off, but there are quite a few bright spots.

 

Starlin and Rizzo look like cornerstone players again.

 

Unfortunately, those are the only 2 hitters in the bright spot category. The next group is just "not disappointing" and then there are the black holes. There may be 10 guys who could individually be fine on a good roster, but you need more good players to slot ahead of those guys to have a major league caliber lineup.

[davell]

"shown flashes" is just code for "sucked"

 

No, I don't care how they've gotten to their stat lines yet. Lake and Olt with .700+ OPS's is fine with me. I see Lake with little shot at starting but I'm not going to give up on Olt. Castillo is fine. Kalish is a backup.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"shown flashes" is just code for "sucked"

 

No, I don't care how they've gotten to their stat lines yet. Lake and Olt with .700+ OPS's is fine with me. I see Lake with little shot at starting but I'm not going to give up on Olt. Castillo is fine. Kalish is a backup.

 

Every one of them is a below-average player except *maybe* Castillo if he can keep up his "high-K but magically good results when I hit the ball" thing.

 

There is less on the MLB roster now than there was when Epstein took over. If he were leaving, he'd be leaving the new guy a bigger mess than the one he has failed to clean up.

Edited May 16, 2014 by Hairyducked Idiot

[jersey cubs fan]

Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record.

 

Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record.

 

Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless.

 

Incorrect. There have been multiple studies demonstrating that Pythogorean record becomes more predictive than actual record or previous record as quickly as a quarter of a season.

[jersey cubs fan]

"shown flashes" is just code for "sucked"

 

No, I don't care how they've gotten to their stat lines yet. Lake and Olt with .700+ OPS's is fine with me. I see Lake with little shot at starting but I'm not going to give up on Olt. Castillo is fine. Kalish is a backup.

 

They may be individually "fine" but those OBPs (much more important than SLG) they will drag down the offense, and if you just field a team of guys who are "fine" you will suck. This is a team of guys who are "fine" and that is why they are losing so much.

[jersey cubs fan]

Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record.

 

Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless.

 

Incorrect. There have been multiple studies demonstrating that Pythogorean record becomes more predictive than actual record or previous record as quickly as a quarter of a season.

 

Yes, "it starts to become", it is not for all teams every season.

[davell]

I'm sure this will piss some off, but there are quite a few bright spots.

 

Starlin and Rizzo look like cornerstone players again.

 

Unfortunately, those are the only 2 hitters in the bright spot category. The next group is just "not disappointing" and then there are the black holes. There may be 10 guys who could individually be fine on a good roster, but you need more good players to slot ahead of those guys to have a major league caliber lineup.

 

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled. With Olt having a chance to be a 4th. It's not ideal obviously. Hopefully 2 more spots are filled from within by mid season next year. It'd leave 2-3 spots to be filled by short term FA and maybe a single long term one.

 

It DOES depend a whole hell of a lot on what Javy, KB, Alcantara look like once they come up obviously. If out of the 3, we get an All Star and a starter, I really like where we're at. If its a starter and 2 busts, we've got a ton of work to do.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm sure this will piss some off, but there are quite a few bright spots.

 

You're being VERY generous with what you mean by "bright spots." This is probably the lowest point the organization has been since the current FO took over. If it weren't for Bryant it would be nothing but darkness eclipsing the land.

[davell]

"shown flashes" is just code for "sucked"

 

No, I don't care how they've gotten to their stat lines yet. Lake and Olt with .700+ OPS's is fine with me. I see Lake with little shot at starting but I'm not going to give up on Olt. Castillo is fine. Kalish is a backup.

 

Every one of them is a below-average player except *maybe* Castillo if he can keep up his "high-K but magically good results when I hit the ball" thing.

 

There is less on the MLB roster now than there was when Epstein took over. If he were leaving, he'd be leaving the new guy a bigger mess than the one he has failed to clean up.

 

That's just not true at all. I think anyone would prefer monetary flexibility over a below average lineup and no flexibility.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Of course not. But you'll have to come up with a better reason that our team is an outlier than "they just suck I hate them," although I certainly sympathize with that sentiment.

 

They aren't a true-talent 108-loss, .333 team right now. They are experience pretty extreme negative variance between their performance and ability vs. their actual record. It happens. Sometimes you field a bad team and variance gives you a terrible record instead of merely bad.

 

We *just* saw this last year. The team was 18-30 on May 25, but the statistical indicators were saying they were a better team than that, and they went 31-28 from May 25 to July 31. Then we went 17-38 the rest of the way.

 

The most reasonable expectation is something similar this year. We've got 67 games until the trade deadline. Maybe 60 until the midpoint of the trading season. If we play to our current statistical indicators in that time, we'd go something like 29-31 in those games, leaving us at 42-57. Then we limp home with a stripped-bare team and finish between 95 and 105 losses.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's just not true at all. I think anyone would prefer monetary flexibility over a below average lineup and no flexibility.

 

He had flexibility. Most of the bad contracts were coming off the books as he took over.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled..

 

Castillo is a 27-year-old catcher with a 26% K-rate. Setting back and assuming that's filled is a perilous position to take.

[sneakypower]

Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record.

 

Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless.

worth noting that both pitchers we bombed (Cingrani, Lyons) were likely pitching injured (both were placed on DL immediately following their starts)

[Guest]

For anyone interested: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23587

[DiamondMind]

Wrigley Field Mural Depicts Scene From Comiskey Park

[Guest]

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled..

 

Castillo is a 27-year-old catcher with a 26% K-rate. Setting back and assuming that's filled is a perilous position to take.

 

he was a 3.2 fwar player last year and he's on about a 3 fwar pace this year. the position is filled.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

he was a 3.2 fwar player last year and he's on about a 3 fwar pace this year. the position is filled.

 

Well, that settles it. Nobody ever slips as they hit their late 20s in modern baseball, and WAR is completely predictive.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled..

 

Castillo is a 27-year-old catcher with a 26% K-rate. Setting back and assuming that's filled is a perilous position to take.

 

he was a 3.2 fwar player last year and he's on about a 3 fwar pace this year. the position is filled.

 

Yeah, at the very least he's serviceable. Filling the catcher spot with someone else is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the list of necessities right now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, at the very least he's serviceable. Filling the catcher spot with someone else is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the list of necessities right now.

 

Flashforward to 2016, when the Cubs go 79-83 and Castillo provides a 0.2 WAR turd of a season, and we can't blame Theo because Castillo had just seemed so reliable.

[KingCubsFan]

I'm sure this will piss some off, but there are quite a few bright spots.

 

You're being VERY generous with what you mean by "bright spots." This is probably the lowest point the organization has been since the current FO took over. If it weren't for Bryant it would be nothing but darkness eclipsing the land.

Disagree. Last year was much more bleak. At least Rizzo and Castro have performed this year. And while Olt has some red flags, I'm also encouraged by the slowly declining K rate and massive power he's shown so far.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, at the very least he's serviceable. Filling the catcher spot with someone else is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the list of necessities right now.

 

Flashforward to 2016, when the Cubs go 79-83 and Castillo provides a 0.2 WAR turd of a season, and we can't blame Theo because Castillo had just seemed so reliable.

 

Seems weird that Castillo would be the focal point of a disappointing season like that, but whatever floats your boat.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm sure this will piss some off, but there are quite a few bright spots.

 

You're being VERY generous with what you mean by "bright spots." This is probably the lowest point the organization has been since the current FO took over. If it weren't for Bryant it would be nothing but darkness eclipsing the land.

Disagree. Last year was much more bleak. At least Rizzo and Castro have performed this year. And while Olt has some red flags, I'm also encouraged by the slowly declining K rate and massive power he's shown so far.

 

It bums me out because even with those improvements the team seems as bad as last year's or worse. I'm left to only hope that the FO is intentionally trying to tank despite these improvements because the alternative is more than a tad depressing.

[Guest]

Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record.

 

Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless.

worth noting that both pitchers we bombed (Cingrani, Lyons) were likely pitching injured (both were placed on DL immediately following their starts)

 

Well that makes me feel worse.

[Guest]

I'm sure this will piss some off, but there are quite a few bright spots.

 

You're being VERY generous with what you mean by "bright spots." This is probably the lowest point the organization has been since the current FO took over. If it weren't for Bryant it would be nothing but darkness eclipsing the land.

Disagree. Last year was much more bleak. At least Rizzo and Castro have performed this year. And while Olt has some red flags, I'm also encouraged by the slowly declining K rate and massive power he's shown so far.

 

It bums me out because even with those improvements the team seems as bad as last year's or worse. I'm left to only hope that the FO is intentionally trying to tank despite these improvements because the alternative is more than a tad depressing.

 

It seems pretty obvious they're intentionally tanking, just like the Astros.