Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

http://grantland.com/features/chicago-cubs-boston-red-sox-theo-epstein/

 

Rany Jazayerli on Theo, Jed and the rebuild.

[Guest]

That's pretty cool that they interviewed Rany for a front office role.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://grantland.com/features/chicago-cubs-boston-red-sox-theo-epstein/

 

Rany Jazayerli on Theo, Jed and the rebuild.

 

Just the same tired apologism in a reasonably-well written long-form (excluding the excruciating opening. Nobody cares about your kids, Rany).

[Guest]

That's pretty cool that they interviewed Rany for a front office role.

 

Yeah, biggest takeaway I got from that. Creative like the Astros have been lately.

[Guest]

That's pretty cool that they interviewed Rany for a front office role.

 

Yeah, biggest takeaway I got from that. Creative like the Astros have been lately.

 

Right around when they hired Tango Tiger too.

[Guest]

That's pretty cool that they interviewed Rany for a front office role.

 

Yeah, biggest takeaway I got from that. Creative like the Astros have been lately.

 

I think my biggest takeaway is that I would kill to have had them take over the Cubs exactly 10 years earlier (hopefully that date would precede the Dusty hiring - edit, derp it absolutely would preceed dusty as baylor was still the manager in 2002).

 

I was aware of it and everything but it's still crazy to think how far ahead of the game you were relatively recently if you properly valued OBP and SLG.

Edited March 17, 2014 by David

[treebird]

i thoroughly enjoyed the parts where he said not even optimistic cub fans think the team can be good in 2015, that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen), and that theo has us set up for success in 2018.

 

vomit vomit vomit

 

i agree completely that it would be nice to go back and have this front office back when the things they knew how to do were special. but if the things they do well now aren't any different than anyone else, why write these glowing pieces about how great they are? we appear to have a front office no smarter than but a couple teams and no dumber than but a couple teams. hurray?

[Guest]

i thoroughly enjoyed the parts where he said not even optimistic cub fans think the team can be good in 2015, that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen), and that theo has us set up for success in 2018.

 

vomit vomit vomit

 

i agree completely that it would be nice to go back and have this front office back when the things they knew how to do were special. but if the things they do well now aren't any different than anyone else, why write these glowing pieces about how great they are? we appear to have a front office no smarter than but a couple teams and no dumber than but a couple teams. hurray?

 

they still have a ridiculously good record in terms of scouting and player development...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I can't stand the "don't worry guys, they're totally going to win a World Series."

 

You don't know that, Rany, and you *know* you don't know that.

 

They're smart. They work hard. There's a crapton of other smart, hard-working franchises out there now trying to prevent you from making the playoffs each year, and when you do make it, there's still just a 1-in-8 shot that you survive the short-series-coin-flip gauntlet. They are going to miss the playoff sometimes, and they are perfectly capable of getting boned by the same run of bad luck that's hit Billy Beane.

[sneakypower]

i thoroughly enjoyed the parts where he said not even optimistic cub fans think the team can be good in 2015, that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen), and that theo has us set up for success in 2018.

 

vomit vomit vomit

 

i agree completely that it would be nice to go back and have this front office back when the things they knew how to do were special. but if the things they do well now aren't any different than anyone else, why write these glowing pieces about how great they are? we appear to have a front office no smarter than but a couple teams and no dumber than but a couple teams. hurray?

yeah, pretty much this, is the unpleasant realization i came to this offseason; outside of minor-league player development, they're probably more or less replacement-level at this point: no real ambition at all, content to waiting for the prospects you've tanked seasons for to come up and maybe make a huge impact

 

that's still basically the old-school conventional way of going about things; i can easily think of like a dozen other teams who are in some stage of that process right now

 

oh well, i'll have a lot more free time this summer

 

Bryant’s selection was a mild surprise — most scouts had college right-handed pitcher Jonathan Gray, who went third overall to the Rockies, rated higher — and it speaks to one lingering inefficiency the Cubs are trying to exploit: The industry still values pitching prospects too highly, because the industry as a whole has made only modest gains in preventing pitcher injuries, as the latest epidemic of exploding elbow ligaments this month has reminded us.

we sure showed the industry! (our Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, ??? 2015 rotation)

[Guest]

that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen)

 

wait...I don't know this.

[Guest]

we sure showed the industry! (our Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, ??? 2015 rotation)

 

So Samardzija has been traded for nothing in return pitching-wise and none of the pitching talent already at AA demonstrated that they'll be around and nobody else was signed or traded for?

 

 

I guess that would be a worst case scenario.

[Guest]

I have a great deal of cognitive dissonance about this turd sandwich we are being forced to eat. On the one hand Theo and his team are really smart guys. On the other, I think the "smartness" creates a sense of hubris on their part which I don't really like. Theo is too cool for school and he knows it. The writers eat it that [expletive] up with a spoon and fork and because of it tend to become sycophants. Boers and Bernstein mock anyone who questions the Cubs motivation and plan.

 

On the third hand is the ownership. The family seems really smart and obviously have the pedigree. You'd think they'd want to put a winner on the field post haste. But I wonder who is really running the show. Is Tom so differential to Theo that he's letting the plan play out? Or is he really pinching the pennies and forcing Theo to be "creative like the Astros" (puke!).

 

In the end, "the process" seems needlessly dramatic and painful to me. I guess it doesn't matter because I'll be listening as much as I can no matter what happens.

Edited March 17, 2014 by CubinNY

[SouthSideRyan]

The AA guys are being held down until they're no longer super 2s

[Guest]

This was pretty annoying too...

 

That leaves one piece of unfinished business: To balance that 2015 lineup, the Cubs need to sign or trade for an elite starting pitcher, if not two. Samardzija, Wood, and Jackson don’t scare anyone as the 1-2-3 in a rotation, but make them the 3-4-5 behind a free-agent ace like Scherzer or Shields and a short-term rental like Price or Yovani Gallardo, and that’s suddenly a playoff-caliber rotation. The Cubs may not get past the Cardinals, but a spot in the 2015 wild-card game is worth reaching for, particularly since it would simply be the Cubs’ opening salvo in what ought to be a run of contention.

 

If we trade for Price as a mother [expletive] "rental," I will lose my [expletive]

[SouthSideRyan]

Being 100% serious I don't think we'd be able to fit prices salary into our 2015 budget

[Guest]

i thoroughly enjoyed the parts where he said not even optimistic cub fans think the team can be good in 2015, that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen), and that theo has us set up for success in 2018.

 

He says the Cubs are not going to be a 95 win juggernaut next year, but then he says they can be a borderline playoff team with the right moves and development for next season. That's hardly ideal, and thanks to their empty offseason this year it is a pretty hard ceiling, but it's not pie in the sky to think the team competitive next year either.

 

In 2015 the offense will have Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant vying for full time gigs, plus Olt, Valbuena, Lake, Sweeney, and Alcantara on the periphery as potentially useful players. For 2016 you subtract Sweeney alone and add Soler and Almora.

 

The pitching in 2015 is what needs more work. Wood and Jackson are there to eat innings, and Shark or a front line pitching prospect will be around, but there needs to be an external acquisition. Personally I'm optimistic considering it also coincides with the arrival of Baez/Bryant, and that several options have superficial Theo/Jed appeal(Masterson, Lester, Maeda). I understand if not everyone shares that optimism. Arrieta and Hendricks are on the periphery for next year. In 2016 you lose no one and add Johnson and Edwards to the discussion.

 

Basically, they need to have enough offense break through with all the young bats they accrued, and they need an external acqusition + Shark/Shark's trade return to form a reasonable rotation with Wood/Jackson/etc. That would be enough to make them an above average team, and then even more young players(one might even call it a wave) come the following season to go along with further age appropriate development and minimal losses.

 

Is that worth the amount of praise that Rany gave it? I don't particularly care. Is that outlook realistic? Yes. Is it bleak? No. That's what I care about.

[Guest]

i thoroughly enjoyed the parts where he said not even optimistic cub fans think the team can be good in 2015, that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen), and that theo has us set up for success in 2018.

 

He says the Cubs are not going to be a 95 win juggernaut next year, but then he says they can be a borderline playoff team with the right moves and development for next season. That's hardly ideal, and thanks to their empty offseason this year it is a pretty hard ceiling, but it's not pie in the sky to think the team competitive next year either.

 

In 2015 the offense will have Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant vying for full time gigs, plus Olt, Valbuena, Lake, Sweeney, and Alcantara on the periphery as potentially useful players. For 2016 you subtract Sweeney alone and add Soler and Almora.

 

The pitching in 2015 is what needs more work. Wood and Jackson are there to eat innings, and Shark or a front line pitching prospect will be around, but there needs to be an external acquisition. Personally I'm optimistic considering it also coincides with the arrival of Baez/Bryant, and that several options have superficial Theo/Jed appeal(Masterson, Lester, Maeda). I understand if not everyone shares that optimism. Arrieta and Hendricks are on the periphery for next year. In 2016 you lose no one and add Johnson and Edwards to the discussion.

 

Basically, they need to have enough offense break through with all the young bats they accrued, and they need an external acqusition + Shark/Shark's trade return to form a reasonable rotation with Wood/Jackson/etc. That would be enough to make them an above average team, and then even more young players(one might even call it a wave) come the following season to go along with further age appropriate development and minimal losses.

 

Is that worth the amount of praise that Rany gave it? I don't particularly care. Is that outlook realistic? Yes. Is it bleak? No. That's what I care about.

 

Pretty much what I think.

 

I get that people (myself included) disagree with what they've said about getting free agents when the time is right (and when the prospects are starting to show up), but disagreeing with it is entirely separate from believing they'll do it. I still believe that they intend to supplement the infusion of talent with free agency.

[Guest]

i thoroughly enjoyed the parts where he said not even optimistic cub fans think the team can be good in 2015, that the team will not be good in 2016 unless ownership allows a bunch of spending (which we all know isn't going to happen), and that theo has us set up for success in 2018.

 

He says the Cubs are not going to be a 95 win juggernaut next year, but then he says they can be a borderline playoff team with the right moves and development for next season. That's hardly ideal, and thanks to their empty offseason this year it is a pretty hard ceiling, but it's not pie in the sky to think the team competitive next year either.

 

In 2015 the offense will have Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant vying for full time gigs, plus Olt, Valbuena, Lake, Sweeney, and Alcantara on the periphery as potentially useful players. For 2016 you subtract Sweeney alone and add Soler and Almora.

 

The pitching in 2015 is what needs more work. Wood and Jackson are there to eat innings, and Shark or a front line pitching prospect will be around, but there needs to be an external acquisition. Personally I'm optimistic considering it also coincides with the arrival of Baez/Bryant, and that several options have superficial Theo/Jed appeal(Masterson, Lester, Maeda). I understand if not everyone shares that optimism. Arrieta and Hendricks are on the periphery for next year. In 2016 you lose no one and add Johnson and Edwards to the discussion.

 

Basically, they need to have enough offense break through with all the young bats they accrued, and they need an external acqusition + Shark/Shark's trade return to form a reasonable rotation with Wood/Jackson/etc. That would be enough to make them an above average team, and then even more young players(one might even call it a wave) come the following season to go along with further age appropriate development and minimal losses.

 

Is that worth the amount of praise that Rany gave it? I don't particularly care. Is that outlook realistic? Yes. Is it bleak? No. That's what I care about.

 

Per Ben Badler's write up on Maeda, scouts who are bullish on him see him as a #4 starter in the big leagues. Don't think he belongs in the same conversation as Masterson and Lester.

[Guest]

Per Ben Badler's write up on Maeda, scouts who are bullish on him see him as a #4 starter in the big leagues. Don't think he belongs in the same conversation as Masterson and Lester.

 

I wasn't trying to imply they were the same quality, his age is what would make him attractive compared to the familiarity of Masterson and Lester.

 

Basically, if they trade Shark, they probably need to splurge(and they'd have the money to do so) on a Masterson, Scherzer, etc. If they keep Shark, the external acquisition doesn't necessarily need to be a guy who runs 20 million a year in order to be on track with the aforementioned plan(although that obviously wouldn't hurt).

[sneakypower]

So Samardzija has been traded for nothing in return pitching-wise and none of the pitching talent already at AA demonstrated that they'll be around and nobody else was signed or traded for?

 

I guess that would be a worst case scenario.

Shark can realistically be traded for something like, i don't know...Daniel Norris, Alberto Tirado, Moises Sierra? and still not make an impact on near year's team; it's my opinion something like that's the most likely scenario

 

maybe teams will be willing to trade viable MLB-ready pitching, but it doesn't seem to happen all that often

 

Boers and Bernstein mock anyone who questions the Cubs motivation and plan.

Brett & Sharma are getting to be pretty bad about this too

[Guest]

Per Ben Badler's write up on Maeda, scouts who are bullish on him see him as a #4 starter in the big leagues. Don't think he belongs in the same conversation as Masterson and Lester.

 

I wasn't trying to imply they were the same quality, his age is what would make him attractive compared to the familiarity of Masterson and Lester.

 

Basically, if they trade Shark, they probably need to splurge(and they'd have the money to do so) on a Masterson, Scherzer, etc. If they keep Shark, the external acquisition doesn't necessarily need to be a guy who runs 20 million a year in order to be on track with the aforementioned plan(although that obviously wouldn't hurt).

 

Gotcha.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I feel like Walter Sobchak. Who the [expletive] is Rany and why do we care.

[Guest]

So Samardzija has been traded for nothing in return pitching-wise and none of the pitching talent already at AA demonstrated that they'll be around and nobody else was signed or traded for?

 

I guess that would be a worst case scenario.

Shark can realistically be traded for something like, i don't know...Daniel Norris, Alberto Tirado, Moises Sierra? and still not make an impact on near year's team; it's my opinion something like that's the most likely scenario

 

maybe teams will be willing to trade viable MLB-ready pitching, but it doesn't seem to happen all that often

 

I have to think that if they were willing to trade Shark for a package of high ceiling arms that are years away, that would've been done already. I think they have a more conservative value on pitching prospects than a lot of teams(IMO for good reason), and so if they don't get the MLB ready package for him, then he'll still be around. Things can obviously change(look at Garza), but for the purposes of forecasting the 2015 and 2016 rosters we're assuming the middle of the road here.

 

I feel like Walter Sobchak. Who the [expletive] is Rany and why do we care.

 

Rany writes regularly at Rany on the Royals and has been a BP contributor. He's very good, thoughtful, and analytical writer(although I've heard him do radio and he's good at that too).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Pretty much what I think.

 

I get that people (myself included) disagree with what they've said about getting free agents when the time is right (and when the prospects are starting to show up), but disagreeing with it is entirely separate from believing they'll do it. I still believe that they intend to supplement the infusion of talent with free agency.

 

 

I absolutely believe they'll add a free agent in the two circumstances they've described:

 

1) The years we're buying are prime years and not post-prime (almost never available)

2) When we're adding the last piece to an already-awesome team (won't apply to 2015)