Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

It sure looks that way now.

 

That's not how you judge such things.

 

It's definitely part of it.

 

I understand using hindsight to reevaluate your processes... but looking at things objectively, right now you're looking at an absolute best case scenario on Anibal and pretty much absolute worst case on Fuji and Jackson. There's not much to be derived from that.

[Guest]

Seems like Epstein and Hoyer's biggest negative would be not being able to acquire guys like Darvish, Puig, Cespedes, Grilli and Sanchez. Obviously there are individuals defenses of not signing most of those guys (like the Cubs not getting a chance to match on Cespedes, offering more than the Dodgers on Puig, etc) but missing on that type of talent infusion is way tougher to swallow than whatever issues signing Fujikawa and Jackson and trading for Stewart would cause.

 

And yes, the reasoning Bruce lists for the Fujikawa and Jackson signings are poor. I liked the signings at the time and still think the Jackson one will work out fine.

[jersey cubs fan]

It sure looks that way now.

 

That's not how you judge such things.

 

It's definitely part of it.

 

I understand using hindsight to reevaluate your processes... but looking at things objectively, right now you're looking at an absolute best case scenario on Anibal and pretty much absolute worst case on Fuji and Jackson. There's not much to be derived from that.

 

While I agree, you also have to consider that the best player of that group, by far, is performing the best. That's not an accident. The Cubs have been happy taking second tier guys left and right while they attempt to tread water, and that is fine to an extent. But to be a really good baseball team you need really good players, not just guys who can hold their own against the league average. The dive they took last season, and the half hearted attempt to be good this year, probably turned off quite a few potential targets. If the money is similar, guys are going to take the better opportunity to win. That means the Cubs either have to offer more money than others to get their targets, or find another way to get good enough to be a place good players want to come in the first place.

[Guest]

Given the way that the negotiations played out, I have significant doubts that Sanchez would've signed to be a Cub for any price that wasn't ludicrous. There's arguments tangent to that about "he would've come if the whole team were better", but in the more narrow exercise of "could we just have not spent money on Fujikawa and Jackson and signed Sanchez instead", I don't think there's much comparison to be made.

[neely crenshaw]

didn't like the sound of this much on Cubs and Stanton

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/three-reasons-chicago-cubs-wont-trade-giancarlo-stanton-135700336.html

 

but he makes a lot of sense.

However, the fan in me is hoping-

1) That they do not trade him mid-season, and wait until the offseason

2) That we can take advantage of the players we have currently that contenders will want and fill up our system, so that we can either deal the top names listed without killing us, or have enough interesting new names to make that deal.

 

Stanton would be a team maker for us. Adding another young big(huge) bat to the order would change our offense completely. Having that big bat be under our control for a while is even bigger. Although he is going to get a huge bump, it won't be what he would get on the free agent market. That gives us more money to sign other players.

Getting him and fixing the pen, would probably be enough to be serious contenders right now.

I do not like the sound of St. Louis getting involved. They have a loaded system, and I am not sure we can match a deal from them if they really want him.

[Backtobanks]

didn't like the sound of this much on Cubs and Stanton

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/three-reasons-chicago-cubs-wont-trade-giancarlo-stanton-135700336.html

 

but he makes a lot of sense.

However, the fan in me is hoping-

1) That they do not trade him mid-season, and wait until the offseason

2) That we can take advantage of the players we have currently that contenders will want and fill up our system, so that we can either deal the top names listed without killing us, or have enough interesting new names to make that deal.

 

Stanton would be a team maker for us. Adding another young big(huge) bat to the order would change our offense completely. Having that big bat be under our control for a while is even bigger. Although he is going to get a huge bump, it won't be what he would get on the free agent market. That gives us more money to sign other players.

Getting him and fixing the pen, would probably be enough to be serious contenders right now.

I do not like the sound of St. Louis getting involved. They have a loaded system, and I am not sure we can match a deal from them if they really want him.

 

The only way we would have a shot at Stanton is if the Marlins really valued players like Baez, Soler, or Almora specifically as to what they want, otherwise teams like the Cards have more to offer. Unfortunately we're still stuck kind of in-the-middle land with a good (and improving) farm system, but not good enough to outbid some teams for a potential superstar without totally decimating the farm system.

[Guest]

The only way we would have a shot at Stanton is if the Marlins really valued players like Baez, Soler, or Almora specifically as to what they want, otherwise teams like the Cards have more to offer. Unfortunately we're still stuck kind of in-the-middle land with a good (and improving) farm system, but not good enough to outbid some teams for a potential superstar without totally decimating the farm system.

 

In about two days, I would argue that our farm system will be borderline top 5.

 

Whether or not you should want to "decimate" it for a trade, that's an entirely different conversation.

[neely crenshaw]

scary thing is the rumor that of Colorado falls out of contention, they may deal Tulowitski to St.L for some of their pitching, which frees up Rutledge to play short. That then opens up their SS prospect to be part of the deal for Stanton(with more of that pitching). I do not want to face a lineup with Stanton/Tulo at 3 and 4 for next half decade....

[Guest]

It matters in the hypothetical who has more/better assets to use in trade, but it still requires that team to value those assets the same as we think. Texas and St. Louis have been talked up as having the pieces to add star trade targets for about 18 months now, and yet Trevor Bauer is in Cleveland, Justin Upton is in Atlanta, Adrian Gonzalez and friends are in LA, and Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson are Blue Jays. Having talent to construct a reasonably attractive offer is the barrier to entry, not having the best talent to offer.

[Guest]

scary thing is the rumor that of Colorado falls out of contention, they may deal Tulowitski to St.L for some of their pitching, which frees up Rutledge to play short. That then opens up their SS prospect to be part of the deal for Stanton(with more of that pitching). I do not want to face a lineup with Stanton/Tulo at 3 and 4 for next half decade....

 

The Cardinals don't have a SS prospect, that's why Kozma and his .626 OPS are playing there now, and why Taveras for Profar was a fun rumor for a while. And while the Cardinals have a lot of tradeable assets, it's a pretty big stretch that they have the assets to pull off Tulowitzki and Stanton without doing some mitigating damage to their MLB roster and especially their farm system.

[NewUserName]

What ever happened to the Cards being a sinking ship after they traded the system for Holiday and then gave him a "terrible" contract? Does anyone ever talk about Mozeliak being the best GM in baseball? Okay this was a Cardinal rant wrapped up in a couple of questions...carry on with Cubs musings

[sneakypower]

i'm ambivalent toward Mozeliak as a GM, but it's pretty undeniable their player development is as good as it gets; a fairly high amount of their prospects reach their supposed ceilings

[Guest]

i'm ambivalent toward Mozeliak as a GM, but it's pretty undeniable their player development is as good as it gets; a fairly high amount of their prospects reach their supposed ceilings

 

Is it necessarily player development, or is it that their scouting might just be better at finding guys who actually develop into things?

[neely crenshaw]

Ryan Jackson is the shortstop at Memphis hitting .362 with a .900+ ops, talk of moving Kozma to utility soon to see what he can do. Plus they have about 8 pitchers ready or near ready for the bigs.

It could have been Wong(2b) or Taveras they were talking about also.

It might put a dent in their system(to deal for both) but they seem like they are covered for the next 5 years at the major league level, and that they could take a hit at the higher levels of their farm system.

It's sucks to look at how many guys they have ready, and how they pull them up and they do great-just adding to their trade value.

If you want to be sick look at their roster for this year. They have 4 young guys called up as starters-who all threw well- AND that's not counting Miller who is up to stay. They also have 3 young relievers called up all having done well...then you realize that Lynn and Garcia are 26.

I think they have some pieces they could deal

[Guest]

Jackson is hitting .326 with an .840 OPS, which while good, is not enough for him to be anything of value considering he's a 25 year old with a career .719 OPS that's repeating AAA.

 

And yes, while they could possibly come up with deals that netted them both players, it would come at a significant cost that minimizes the benefit. Their pitching depth isn't THAT significant after a spat of injuries, and with how strong and deep their offense is(especially at corner OF), they wouldn't get the same benefit as most teams of adding Stanton.

[Backtobanks]

The only way we would have a shot at Stanton is if the Marlins really valued players like Baez, Soler, or Almora specifically as to what they want, otherwise teams like the Cards have more to offer. Unfortunately we're still stuck kind of in-the-middle land with a good (and improving) farm system, but not good enough to outbid some teams for a potential superstar without totally decimating the farm system.

 

In about two days, I would argue that our farm system will be borderline top 5.

 

Whether or not you should want to "decimate" it for a trade, that's an entirely different conversation.

 

Borderline top 5 still means that there are about 5-6 teams that can probably offer more when a potential superstar becomes available. As for "decimating" the farm system in a trade, it's easier when you have a solid ML team (like the Cards) as opposed to a team that is in desperate need for their youngsters to come up and fill in their many holes on their roster (like the Cubs).

[NewUserName]

i'm ambivalent toward Mozeliak as a GM, but it's pretty undeniable their player development is as good as it gets; a fairly high amount of their prospects reach their supposed ceilings

 

Is it necessarily player development, or is it that their scouting might just be better at finding guys who actually develop into things?

 

Probably both.

[mul21]

i'm ambivalent toward Mozeliak as a GM, but it's pretty undeniable their player development is as good as it gets; a fairly high amount of their prospects reach their supposed ceilings

 

Is it necessarily player development, or is it that their scouting might just be better at finding guys who actually develop into things?

 

I think the guy who put this system together being gone to Houston will be an issue for them in the coming years. Cardinals management took a chance on Luhnow when they got rid of Jocketty because the two couldn't play nice. The guy who owns the Cards is a smart dude and probably saw something in Luhnow he really liked. There is a very good developmental system in place, but I have a feeling Luhnow has an eye for talent unlike many others out there. This Cards farm system didn't really start taking off until he was given pretty much full control of the draft and IFA signings.

[Warren Brusstar]

I don't have a problem putting them in the haven't worked out category, but to criticize them because they weren't going to contend does not make sense to me.

 

Same.

 

I have an issue with signing older guys to massive (think Pujols) commitments when you are going to get the majority of the value in the first 2 or 3 years of a deal and then be paying for that production for years thereafter, but otherwise, criticizing getting good value on guys for now is ridiculous. What the hell else were they going to do with the $5M they saved in 2013 by not signing Fujikawa? Or the $12 or w/e on Jackson?

 

Then why did you lose your mind last year when the Cubs signed Reed Johnson (for like $1 million) on the theory that signing reserve outfielders was a complete waste of money on a team that wasn't going to contend?

 

(I'll remind you that Johnson helped them get Arodys)

[Guest]

I don't have a problem putting them in the haven't worked out category, but to criticize them because they weren't going to contend does not make sense to me.

 

Same.

 

I have an issue with signing older guys to massive (think Pujols) commitments when you are going to get the majority of the value in the first 2 or 3 years of a deal and then be paying for that production for years thereafter, but otherwise, criticizing getting good value on guys for now is ridiculous. What the hell else were they going to do with the $5M they saved in 2013 by not signing Fujikawa? Or the $12 or w/e on Jackson?

 

Then why did you lose your mind last year when the Cubs signed Reed Johnson (for like $1 million) on the theory that signing reserve outfielders was a complete waste of money on a team that wasn't going to contend?

 

(I'll remind you that Johnson helped them get Arodys)

 

Because I have an issue with signing terrible gritty backup outfielders too (and it had nothing to do with whether the team was going to contend or not).

Edited June 5, 2013 by David

[Sammy Sofa]

Let's talk about Castro. Why does he suck? How much does he suck? More importantly, how can the people who understand baseball stats so much better than I do explain this to make me not want to steal Tree's forehead heroin needle?

[Guest]

Let's talk about Castro. Why does he suck? How much does he suck? More importantly, how can the people who understand baseball stats so much better than I do explain this to make me not want to steal Tree's forehead heroin needle?

 

I'm just hoping that what we're seeing is a byproduct of him working on things, specifically his approach. Progress isn't linear and all that.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Let's talk about Castro. Why does he suck? How much does he suck? More importantly, how can the people who understand baseball stats so much better than I do explain this to make me not want to steal Tree's forehead heroin needle?

 

I think you're going to need his heroin needle. I can't imagine there is a way to explain his season so far other than to say it's horribly disappointing and that he sucks. But I'm willing to listen if anybody has anything.

[Guest]

i'm ambivalent toward Mozeliak as a GM, but it's pretty undeniable their player development is as good as it gets; a fairly high amount of their prospects reach their supposed ceilings

 

Is it necessarily player development, or is it that their scouting might just be better at finding guys who actually develop into things?

 

Probably both.

 

I just question how much "great" player development can really do.

 

In our case, when you're going from probably the most incompetent and counterproductive "development" system imaginable to a good one, I could see it having an impact (vs what our old system would've done with said players).

[Guest]

Let's talk about Castro. Why does he suck? How much does he suck? More importantly, how can the people who understand baseball stats so much better than I do explain this to make me not want to steal Tree's forehead heroin needle?

 

I think you're going to need his heroin needle. I can't imagine there is a way to explain his season so far other than to say it's horribly disappointing and that he sucks. But I'm willing to listen if anybody has anything.

 

lol