Lillibridge

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It means that a team should almost always be able to go to the replacement level player store and find a guy for around $400k and/or negligible trade value that is projected to put up around 0.0 WAR

 

ZiPS projections

Lillibridge: 0.5 WAR

Ransom: 0.3 WAR

Maysonet: -0.1 WAR

Gonzalez: -0.2 WAR

 

So depending on how liberally you want to use the word "around", the Cubs have anywhere from 2 to 4 of those players now.

 

We've gone over how ridiculously optimistic I find the Lililbridge projection. Think of it like LaHair's.

 

I see two different ZIPS projections on Ransom's fangraphs page, one for -0.2 and one for -0.4.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

zips has ransom as projected at -0.2 war. are we really having this conversation because they projected him there instead of 0.0? he is exactly a replacement level player and we got him for zero.

 

nothing to see here.

 

We're mostly having this discussion because a few people didn't understand the concept of replacement level, and also the perpetual debate of whether "I find this slightly annoying" is worth posting over or not.

[davell]

Now that we know this is a real issue, lets make sure to have a thread on 25th man possibilities next offseason. We can pin Kyle down on who he wants, so this doesn't come back up all the time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Now that we know this is a real issue, lets make sure to have a thread on 25th man possibilities next offseason. We can pin Kyle down on who he wants, so this doesn't come back up all the time.

 

This never would've happened if we had a good team!!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now that we know this is a real issue, lets make sure to have a thread on 25th man possibilities next offseason. We can pin Kyle down on who he wants, so this doesn't come back up all the time.

 

Ronny Cedeno now. Ronny Cedeno forever.

[Tracer Bullet]

zips has ransom as projected at -0.2 war. are we really having this conversation because they projected him there instead of 0.0? he is exactly a replacement level player and we got him for zero.

 

nothing to see here.

 

We're mostly having this discussion because a few people didn't understand the concept of replacement level, and also the perpetual debate of whether "I find this slightly annoying" is worth posting over or not.

 

We're having this discussion apparently bc even though the Cubs had several RL players on the team you didn't think they should qualify as RL bc you didn't like their projections.

 

It has nothing to do with others not understanding a concept.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It has nothing to do with others not understanding a concept.

 

A big part of the discussion came from the digression of someone thinking that a replacement-level player would cost several million dollars, and another not understanding that being available for the minimum salary is very much a part of the definition of a replacement player.

 

It's not just their literal projections either, i.e. ZIPS. ZIPS does weird things with middle infielders. You can look at their careers and recent results and see the -X WAR performance coming pretty clearly.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe they can convince So Taguchi to come out of retirement, just to drive Kyle especially insane. Since Kyle is an enormous racist.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe they can convince So Taguchi to come out of retirement, just to drive Kyle especially insane. Since Kyle is an enormous racist.

 

I think you missed the point of Kevin Gregg being on the team. They aren't trolling specific Cubs fans, just the fandom in general.

[Sammy Sofa]

Note how he has no problem spelling the white guy's weird name just fine.

[Tracer Bullet]

It has nothing to do with others not understanding a concept.

 

A big part of the discussion came from the digression of someone thinking that a replacement-level player would cost several million dollars, and another not understanding that being available for the minimum salary is very much a part of the definition of a replacement player.

 

It's not just their literal projections either, i.e. ZIPS. ZIPS does weird things with middle infielders. You can look at their careers and recent results and see the -X WAR performance coming pretty clearly.

 

If you're referring to my question, it was intended to elicit the response it did bc the concept of RL also includes the exception that they aren't just laying around all year long and guaranteed to put up a 0+ WAR.

 

I think the misunderstanding lies with your inability to apply the concept of RL to real life. The Cubs plugged in a RL player when the starting 2b got hurt. He sucked and got cut when he was no longer needed. That is an example of RL in the real world. Going out on April 15 or whatever and getting a sure-fire 0+ WAR player, esp for a team with no talent in the upper minors, is going to cost more than nothing. That's reality.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Brent Lillibridge is simply not a replacement level player. He's been below replacement five of the six years he's been in the majors. His career total is -1.5 fWAR.

 

If you want to argue that Ransom is more or less replacement and adequate for a mid-season pickup, fine. I disagree. His K rates are horrifying. But I'm not going to say the case is completely unreasonable.

 

But the case that Lillibridge was a replacement level player when they picked him up is shaky at best. His job could have and should have been filled by someone better from the beginning.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hasn't misspelled Lillibridge's name once.

[SABR Gamer]

Brent Lillibridge is simply not a replacement level player. He's been below replacement five of the six years he's been in the majors. His career total is -1.5 fWAR.

 

If you want to argue that Ransom is more or less replacement and adequate for a mid-season pickup, fine. I disagree. His K rates are horrifying. But I'm not going to say the case is completely unreasonable.

 

But the case that Lillibridge was a replacement level player when they picked him up is shaky at best. His job could have and should have been filled by someone better from the beginning.

 

You do realize that WAR is a very inexact science, right? A guy who averages -0.25 WAR per season is, for all intents and purposes, replacement level. You are just being annoying at this point.

Edited April 17, 2013 by New York Cubs Fan

[davell]

Cody Ransom will be on our major league roster for a week. Maybe a tad longer. Stewart comes back at that point. What in all of humanity are we arguing his merits for whatsoever? Kyle, if you want a quality bench thats not made up of guys from within your own teams system, you have to pay for it. Its worth it, if you're looking like you're a contender, otherwise, it's kind of throwing money away. Again, who gives a [expletive] if spending 1.5, 2 mill, whatever on a relatively solid backup gets you from 71-91 to 73-89?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cody Ransom will be on our major league roster for a week. Maybe a tad longer. Stewart comes back at that point. What in all of humanity are we arguing his merits for whatsoever? Kyle, if you want a quality bench thats not made up of guys from within your own teams system, you have to pay for it. Its worth it, if you're looking like you're a contender, otherwise, it's kind of throwing money away. Again, who gives a [expletive] if spending 1.5, 2 mill, whatever on a relatively solid backup gets you from 71-91 to 73-89?

 

This is why these arguments always spiral into something so much larger and end up being a billion posts, then someone later says "why did we spend so many posts arguing about Cody Ransom?

 

1) This team projected for a lot better than 71-91 going into the season.

 

2) Ransom will be fighting for a spot with Gonzalez when Stewart comes back. I don't think it's obvious yet which one would stay.

 

3) Why on earth did we spend so much money on free agents this offseason if we weren't going to care about winning this year? We spent the extra money to get a solid outfield bench. We spent more than that on swingmen for the rotation.

[davell]

Kyle, go back and look at the entire 2013 FA class. Then acknowledge that finding someone on a bare minimum deal was basically impossible.