Baseball America's 2016 Projections

[Irrelevant Dude]

I just read Jim Callis' 2016 projections in Baseball America and it was a little disconcerting that there was no mention of the Cubs.

 

Much as they have throughout the decade, the Cardinals and Reds will continue to battle for superiority in the NL Central. This round goes to St. Louis, with outfielder Oscar Taveras winning his first batting title and righthander Shelby Miller leading the pitching staff.

Obviously predicting 3+ years into the future is an inexact science at best, but I was very surprised that the Cubs would not be considered a 2016 contender. Many people seem to be predicting a competitive team in 2014 and potential contender in 2015, so does Callis not buy into the Cubs rebuilding plan?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/column/2013/2614788.html

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just read Jim Callis' 2016 projections in Baseball America and it was a little disconcerting that there was no mention of the Cubs.

 

Much as they have throughout the decade, the Cardinals and Reds will continue to battle for superiority in the NL Central. This round goes to St. Louis, with outfielder Oscar Taveras winning his first batting title and righthander Shelby Miller leading the pitching staff.

Obviously predicting 3+ years into the future is an inexact science at best, but I was very surprised that the Cubs would not be considered a 2016 contender. Many people seem to be predicting a competitive team in 2014 and potential contender in 2015, so does Callis not buy into the Cubs rebuilding plan?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/column/2013/2614788.html

 

 

This is something I've noted lately. The Cardinals are pretty freaking set at everything (except, oddly enough, SS, the one position we are overflowing with talent at).

 

The Reds have an excellent MLB team, a farm system that is nearly as good as ours, aren't really all that small-market these days, and are run by a very good baseball guy.

 

The Pirates seem to be lining everything up for their brief window of competitiveness in the next few years.

 

Even when we decide we want to go for it, it's not like it'll be a cakewalk. It's not hard to imagine our playoff drought going for several more years.

[Guest]

I just read Jim Callis' 2016 projections in Baseball America and it was a little disconcerting that there was no mention of the Cubs.

 

Much as they have throughout the decade, the Cardinals and Reds will continue to battle for superiority in the NL Central. This round goes to St. Louis, with outfielder Oscar Taveras winning his first batting title and righthander Shelby Miller leading the pitching staff.

Obviously predicting 3+ years into the future is an inexact science at best, but I was very surprised that the Cubs would not be considered a 2016 contender. Many people seem to be predicting a competitive team in 2014 and potential contender in 2015, so does Callis not buy into the Cubs rebuilding plan?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/column/2013/2614788.html

 

I asked him on Twitter when that came out and he said he just thought that while the Cubs were they've right path but the Reds and Cardinals would be further ahead.

 

I doubt that Callis will be right.

[RynoRules]

I just read Jim Callis' 2016 projections in Baseball America and it was a little disconcerting that there was no mention of the Cubs.

 

Much as they have throughout the decade, the Cardinals and Reds will continue to battle for superiority in the NL Central. This round goes to St. Louis, with outfielder Oscar Taveras winning his first batting title and righthander Shelby Miller leading the pitching staff.

Obviously predicting 3+ years into the future is an inexact science at best, but I was very surprised that the Cubs would not be considered a 2016 contender. Many people seem to be predicting a competitive team in 2014 and potential contender in 2015, so does Callis not buy into the Cubs rebuilding plan?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/column/2013/2614788.html

 

 

This is something I've noted lately. The Cardinals are pretty freaking set at everything (except, oddly enough, SS, the one position we are overflowing with talent at).

 

The Reds have an excellent MLB team, a farm system that is nearly as good as ours, aren't really all that small-market these days, and are run by a very good baseball guy.

 

The Pirates seem to be lining everything up for their brief window of competitiveness in the next few years.

 

Even when we decide we want to go for it, it's not like it'll be a cakewalk. It's not hard to imagine our playoff drought going for several more years.

 

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

EDIT: And I forgot Baez.

Edited April 8, 2013 by RynoRules

[mookie]

Come with me for a moment as we fast forward to 2016. You see this thread guys? Isn't that funny? Look at the Cardinals this season. That's what happens when you think you know more than you do Callis. Oh yeah, who's going to Game 7 tonight at Wrigley? The day has finally come boys. The day has finally come.

[jersey cubs fan]

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

Soler and who combines for the corner OF? Almora? I was under the impression that he had a chance to be special if he could stick in center but that he probably wouldn't be much of anything special as a corner OF. I don't think that corner OF would come close to top 5 in baseball by 2016.

 

I sure hope Rizzo is a top 10 1B, but some projections have him struggling to break into that level.

[Guest]

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

Soler and who combines for the corner OF? Almora? I was under the impression that he had a chance to be special if he could stick in center but that he probably wouldn't be much of anything special as a corner OF. I don't think that corner OF would come close to top 5 in baseball by 2016.

 

I sure hope Rizzo is a top 10 1B, but some projections have him struggling to break into that level.

 

Yeah, most of the shine on Almora wears off if he can't play CF (heck, he needs to be an above average defender there too).

[RynoRules]

My point was that projections 3 years-out have little value. The late 90's Cubs are good evidence of that. The streets are also littered with prospects who show well at the A and AA levels but amount to little or nothing.

[jersey cubs fan]

My point was that projections 3 years-out have little value. The late 90's Cubs are good evidence of that. The streets are also littered with prospects who show well at the A and AA levels but amount to little or nothing.

 

The late 90's saw the Cubs farm system on the rise and projections matched up with what eventually happened in 03/04. Of course, that prospect batch was extremely heavy in the pitching department and pitchers are unreliable, and even doubly so when you go out and find the worst possible manager for the talent you have in the pipeline.

[neely crenshaw]

I think you also have to temper predictions based solely on farm systems because such a small percentage actually work out. We, as fans, are (or should be) basing our hope for the future that this front office will add the needed pieces to the puzzle when the time comes. Right now we have Castro and Samardzija as known commodities. We have pretty good hope for Rizzo. That is it for known pieces. Edwin Jackson could be around, but probably needs to be towards the bottom of the rotation on a contender. Every other position we are hoping to fill with a guy whose true value is unknown. Even Baez, whom I think looks like the real deal has not played an inning at the big league level.

It's tough to predict things when you are still building 90% of your team for 2016. Add in that our pitching prospects sure seem a long way off.

Now I have confidence that we are building enough depth to:

#1 have at least some of our prospects work out...a must for us

#2 have pieces to trade to fill in other spots so that we don't have to go all free agent routes.

I think as we get closer to 2016, things will be much more in focus(and positive) for the prediction of this team.

[Backtobanks]

I think you also have to temper predictions based solely on farm systems because such a small percentage actually work out. We, as fans, are (or should be) basing our hope for the future that this front office will add the needed pieces to the puzzle when the time comes. Right now we have Castro and Samardzija as known commodities. We have pretty good hope for Rizzo. That is it for known pieces. Edwin Jackson could be around, but probably needs to be towards the bottom of the rotation on a contender. Every other position we are hoping to fill with a guy whose true value is unknown. Even Baez, whom I think looks like the real deal has not played an inning at the big league level.

It's tough to predict things when you are still building 90% of your team for 2016. Add in that our pitching prospects sure seem a long way off.

Now I have confidence that we are building enough depth to:

#1 have at least some of our prospects work out...a must for us

#2 have pieces to trade to fill in other spots so that we don't have to go all free agent routes.

I think as we get closer to 2016, things will be much more in focus(and positive) for the prediction of this team.

 

In the meantime we can feel good about all of the real estate transactions that we're making.

[SABR Gamer]

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

Soler and who combines for the corner OF? Almora? I was under the impression that he had a chance to be special if he could stick in center but that he probably wouldn't be much of anything special as a corner OF. I don't think that corner OF would come close to top 5 in baseball by 2016.

 

I sure hope Rizzo is a top 10 1B, but some projections have him struggling to break into that level.

 

 

How do you figure that....ZiPS projects Rizzo as a top 15-20 player in baseball in the next 5 years. I would think that puts him at one of the top 2-3 players at his position.

Edited April 9, 2013 by New York Cubs Fan

[jersey cubs fan]

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

Soler and who combines for the corner OF? Almora? I was under the impression that he had a chance to be special if he could stick in center but that he probably wouldn't be much of anything special as a corner OF. I don't think that corner OF would come close to top 5 in baseball by 2016.

 

I sure hope Rizzo is a top 10 1B, but some projections have him struggling to break into that level.

 

 

How do you figure that....ZIPS projects Rizzo as a top 15-20 player in baseball in the next 5 years. I would think that puts him at one of the top 2-3 players at his position.

 

I've heard/seen people refer to him as having an Adam LaRoche future. I can't recall seeing any reference to being a top 15 player in all of baseball, but that would be sweet.

[Guest]

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

Soler and who combines for the corner OF? Almora? I was under the impression that he had a chance to be special if he could stick in center but that he probably wouldn't be much of anything special as a corner OF. I don't think that corner OF would come close to top 5 in baseball by 2016.

 

I sure hope Rizzo is a top 10 1B, but some projections have him struggling to break into that level.

 

 

How do you figure that....ZIPS projects Rizzo as a top 15-20 player in baseball in the next 5 years. I would think that puts him at one of the top 2-3 players at his position.

 

I've heard/seen people refer to him as having an Adam LaRoche future. I can't recall seeing any reference to being a top 15 player in all of baseball, but that would be sweet.

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zips-breakout-anthony-rizzo/ This was about fantasy, but that doesn't include his defense which would only make him more valuable in real life.

 

And then Dan Szymborski had Rizzo as the 15th best player in a 30 best players of 2018 piece on ESPN.com.

 

I'm guessing those are what he was talking about.

[SABR Gamer]

Since we are all just "projecting" any way, don't we project to have one of the 5 best corner OF combos, best SS, and one of the Top 10 1B's in baseball by 2016?

 

Soler and who combines for the corner OF? Almora? I was under the impression that he had a chance to be special if he could stick in center but that he probably wouldn't be much of anything special as a corner OF. I don't think that corner OF would come close to top 5 in baseball by 2016.

 

I sure hope Rizzo is a top 10 1B, but some projections have him struggling to break into that level.

 

 

How do you figure that....ZIPS projects Rizzo as a top 15-20 player in baseball in the next 5 years. I would think that puts him at one of the top 2-3 players at his position.

 

I've heard/seen people refer to him as having an Adam LaRoche future. I can't recall seeing any reference to being a top 15 player in all of baseball, but that would be sweet.

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zips-breakout-anthony-rizzo/ This was about fantasy, but that doesn't include his defense which would only make him more valuable in real life.

 

And then Dan Szymborski had Rizzo as the 15th best player in a 30 best players of 2018 piece on ESPN.com.

 

I'm guessing those are what he was talking about.

 

The ESPN piece was based on ZiPS projections. It was just 2018 WAR from ZiPS. Rizzo was 15th best in baseball.

 

ETA: ZiPS top mlb players in 5 years:

 

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Projected 2018 stats: .273/.367/.508, 28 HR, 6.5 WAR

No. 1 is probably the least surprising player on the list. Trout was so good in 2012 that even if that turns out to be his best season, he can still very easily be a perennial MVP candidate. People do tend to overrate how much very young superstars improve, but Trout could give back nearly half his 2012 WAR and still be one of the very best in baseball.

 

 

2. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

Projected 2018 stats: .287/.377/.573, 38 HR, 6.4 WAR

Harper didn't have the year that Trout did -- nobody did, really -- but he probably has more room to grow, especially in power potential. Even if he's a hair behind Trout long-term, there's no shame in that, and the Nats will be best served to at least sound out Harper on a long-term deal soon, though it's unlikely agent Scott Boras will bite.

 

 

3. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected 2018 stats: 2.89 ERA, 202 K, 50 BB, 5.7 WAR

In 2018, Kershaw will be just 30, and in the long term, he's probably the safest pitcher in baseball. One of just two pitchers in the top 10 for 2018, Kershaw is already on a Hall of Fame path.

 

 

4. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

Projected 2018 stats: .270/.369/.580, 38 HR, 5.5 WAR

This is his projection if he stays a Marlin, which seems unlikely given ownership's proclivity toward extreme thrift. Put Stanton in a park that favors right-handed sluggers, like Camden Yards, and he could move up the list.

 

 

5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants

Projected 2018 stats: .291/.368/.469, 18 HR, 5.3 WAR

While catchers are inherently risky, Posey has already survived a gruesome ankle injury and put up an MVP season just a year later. He's not going to hit .336 that often going forward, but he has staked his case as the best catcher in baseball.

 

 

6. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles

Projected 2018 stats: .268/.336/.489, 26 HR, 5.3 WAR

He is generally believed to have plus-power potential, and the computer agrees with the scouts. As noted for Stanton, Camden's a good home for a right-handed power hitter. The only question now is if the O's play him at short, which this projection assumes. As a third baseman, he drops out of the top 10.

 

 

7. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers

Projected 2018 stats: .274/.358/.475, 20 HR, 5.0 WAR

Profar is likely to start the season in Triple-A, thus delaying the Rangers' final decision on how to solve the middle-infield logjam. In the end, the Rangers will have to make the room for Profar, and if he is in fact the player traded, they better fill some other serious needs.

 

 

8. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs

Projected 2018 stats: .293/.341/.478, 19 HR, 4.7 WAR

Can he stay at short? The stats have generally been more positive (or at least, less negative) on Castro's defense than the eye has been. Wherever he ends up, by 2018 he's likely to be one of the best hitters for average over the past decade, though he's not going to ever be a guy who racks up walks.

 

 

9. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals

Projected 2018 stats: 2.91 ERA, 168 K, 47 BB, 4.5 WAR

With his Tommy John surgery behind him and the Nats being careful with him in 2012, he's a lot less risky than he was a year ago. One of Strasburg's top comps in ZiPS is Roger Clemens, and it's a testament to how accomplished Strasburg is (despite relatively little professional experience) that the comparison isn't ridiculous.

 

 

10. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves

Projected 2018 stats: .259/.349/.492, 28 HR, 4.4 WAR

Along with Freddie Freeman, who just missed the top 30, Heyward will hopefully anchor the middle of Atlanta's lineup for the next decade. Even if he never becomes a hitter for average, his power and glove still make him a star.

 

 

11. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Projected 2018 stats: 3.47 ERA, 163 K, 48 BB, 4.4 WAR

Five years of 15 wins and Verlander will enter the 2018 season with roughly 200 wins at the age of 35. Even if he isn't the latest pitcher to be "The Last 300-Game Winner," Verlander is likely to be entering the homestretch of a Hall of Fame career and surpassing Hal Newhouser as the best pitcher ever in Tigers history.

 

 

12. Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners

Projected 2018 stats: .254/.337/.418, 21 HR, 4.4 WAR

Zunino is in the most precarious position of any player on this list. He needed no time whatsoever to transition to professional ball after Seattle selected him third overall in the 2012 draft, terrorizing the Northwest League for a month and then continuing his trail of destruction after being promoted all the way to Double-A. However, the track record is so limited that his projection could change a lot over the next couple of years.

 

 

13. Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers

Projected 2018 stats: 3.50 ERA, 180 K, 69 BB, 4.3 WAR

It's easy to forget how young Darvish still is, having just turned 26 in August. He walked more batters than you would like in his MLB debut, but he still has a great deal of upside as he gets more comfortable with a new league in a new country.

 

 

14. Mat Latos, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Projected 2018 stats: 3.45 ERA, 163 K, 45 BB, 4.3 WAR

Johnny Cueto got more press, but for the second half of the season, it was Latos who was truly the staff ace. Still just 25 years old, Latos made his miserable April seem like a distant memory.

 

 

15. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Projected 2018 stats: .273/.356/.520, 34 HR, 4.3 WAR

Ignore Rizzo's cup of coffee with the Padres, his .285/.342/.463 line with the Cubs in 2012 is a far more accurate representation of where he is as a player. The Theo Epstein Cubs aren't done rebuilding yet, but if they can round up a worthwhile third baseman, the infield will already be one of the best in baseball.

[SABR Gamer]

Now having a second look, ZiPS has him as the best 1st basemen in baseball in 5 years.

 

Only other 1B to make the top 30 for 2018 was Votto at #26.