Who is the #41 Prospect for the Cubs?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Please vote for the Cubs #41 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

 

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Monday.

 

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #41, #42 and #43. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

 

Results so far:

 

#1: Javier Baez

#2: Jorge Soler

#3: Albert Almora

#4: Arodys Vizcaino

#5: Dan Vogelbach

#6: Brett Jackson

#7: Juan Paniagua

#8: Christian Villanueva

#9: Dillon Maples

#10: Josh Vitters

#11: Pierce Johnson

#12: Junior Lake

#13: Jeimer Candelario

#14: Duane Underwood

#15: Matt Szczur

#16: Arismendy Alcantara

#17: Ronald Torreyes

#18: Marco Hernandez

#19: Gioskar Amaya

#20: Alberto Cabrera

#21: Logan Watkins

#22: Rob Whitenack

#23: Barrett Loux

#24: Ben Wells

#25: Paul Blackburn

#26: Hector Rondon

#27: Tony Zych

#28: Jae-Hoon Ha

#29: Trey McNutt

#30: Steve Bruno

#31: Michael Jensen

#32: Trey Martin

#33: Tayler Scott

#34: Jose Arias

#35: Ryan McNeil

#36: Jose Rosario

#37: Shawon Dunston Jr.

#38: Nick Struck

#39: Austin Reed

#40: Reggie Golden

[davell]

I went Contreras, Raley, and Hendricks over Carreno at this point.

[Cubswin11]

Penalver

Hatley

DeVoss

[toonsterwu]

Hatley is first for me. I'm not sure there's enough ceiling with the youngsters to really jump ahead of a AAA arm with legitimate late inning possibility.

 

Then, it becomes tough. The reality is, you can slice it a number of ways and I could buy it. I'm thinking Loosen, Chen, and Penalver. I can buy Hendricks, but I have Loosen ahead. The case for Kyle would be command and a better GB rate, but without a huge age difference (8 months), I lean Loosen because his fastball is a bit better.

 

Still, I have a tough time over-looking the fact that he's a 23 year old in A+ without plus stuff, without good command to compensate, and without good GB ability. It's just a tough, tough mix for me to over-look. There's a part of me that wonders if I'm missing something on Loosen, something that BA heard, but I have to go off what I know.

 

So, it's Chen and Penalver, but again, you can slice it a number of ways at this point. Chen's ceiling isn't huge, but the defense is good in CF, the approach is solid, and I really wonder if there's a bit more ... power consistency. Penalver is arguably the top defensive shortstop in the system.

[craig]

Hatley is first for me. I'm not sure there's enough ceiling with the youngsters to really jump ahead of a AAA arm with legitimate late inning possibility.

 

Then, it becomes tough. The reality is, you can slice it a number of ways and I could buy it. I'm thinking Loosen, Chen, and Penalver. I can buy Hendricks, but I have Loosen ahead. The case for Kyle would be command and a better GB rate, but without a huge age difference (8 months), I lean Loosen because his fastball is a bit better.

 

Still, I have a tough time over-looking the fact that he's a 23 year old in A+ without plus stuff, without good command to compensate, and without good GB ability. It's just a tough, tough mix for me to over-look. There's a part of me that wonders if I'm missing something on Loosen, something that BA heard, but I have to go off what I know.

 

So, it's Chen and Penalver, but again, you can slice it a number of ways at this point. Chen's ceiling isn't huge, but the defense is good in CF, the approach is solid, and I really wonder if there's a bit more ... power consistency. Penalver is arguably the top defensive shortstop in the system.

 

Loosen

Hatley

delaRosa

 

Weak vote for Hatley. Good relievers are highly valuable, and Hatley has the arm and stuff where he could be one. But, results matter too, and he hasn't shown a lot. Probably one of the long line of good arms, but inadequate control/consistency that filter in and out of the majors and probably every system. But, given his late transform, I'm hoping he settles in. Maybe some coaching and sustained health and he'll be able to put it together. Chance isn't compelling but it's at least possible, and the alternates aren't a lot of sure things.

 

toonster, I like Loosen better. You don't like his stuff. But BA had him at 89-95, and said his curve has sharpened up. That fits with what I've heard; that he had solid velocity and a good breaking ball this year. Not sure if he's curve and slider, or same pitch termed differently by different observers. He's been a 9K/game guy, so it would seem he's got a pretty good putaway breaking pitch. At least relative to FSL, and apparently better than Hatley had last year, or Struck. Loosen's WHIP has been solid, 1.1 last year. So this is no Dallas Beeler. Maybe his practical stuff is better than you've given him credit for, and maybe he's been improving where some other guys have plateaued?

[craig]

... Chen's ceiling isn't huge, but the defense is good in CF, the approach is solid, and I really wonder if there's a bit more ... power consistency. Penalver is arguably the top defensive shortstop in the system.

 

I'm not close to voting for Chen yet. Had a .692 OPS last summer, and while he played center in Peoria I've got the idea that he isn't really a big defensive CF prospect, more of a LF. No hint of power thus far, although I suppose with time he might mature into Clevenger-type power. So looks like a 5th outfielder type prospect to me. Although, if he can improve his hitting enough so that his OBP is good, there's a place in the majors for guys who can play all three OF positions, and run pretty well. Sometimes a team with a hole or an injury has to start a guy like that. As with Theriot and Penalver, there's opportunity in the majors for guys who can support .340 OBP and play several positions, power or not.

 

Penalver has a chance to become a good defensive SS. I can see a Theriot-type upside offensively, with a slightly higher defensive ceiling. Theriot has gotten over 3000 AB's in the majors, so again, there's obviously big-league value for singles-hitting defenders who can support .340 OBP.

 

And certainly anti-awful is a big deal. You won't have stars at every spot; being anti-awful at your cheap and lesser spots is key. So perhaps if Penalver and Chen were someday the worst guys in the lineup, but were both .330 OBP guys, that wouldn't be too bad.

[toonsterwu]

I hate tablet typing so short response. I don't disagree with the general report on Loosen. 95 is higher than I had for him (heard 92, 93, but could buy him peaking at 95). Said in the last vote that I could buy the beeaking ball flashing above avg. Potential (he threw two different types of breaking balls, but I could never tell if it was two diff pitches, or something else.). It's possible his breaking ball consistency improved late, but there were spotty stretches.

 

I actually like Loosen enough, but it's still a guy without a plus pitch and with a good, but not great fastball. Gb ability isn't good, command isn't great. As noted before, if he did this in A,I would buy more.

 

Again, can slice it anumberof ways and I could buy it. Btw, struck had a similar enough k rate in A+ with a better walk rate.

[Bilbo161]

Saunders

Loosen

Conway

 

Tim Saunders has done pretty well and is supposed to have a pretty good approach at the plate.

 

2012 Season

AVG OBP SLG

CUB AZL .493 .532. .690

DAY FSL .310 .362 .381

PEO MID .321 .380 .481

Minors .381 .431 .536

 

 

Is there some doubt on his D? Penaveler seems to be getting more love here. Just wondering why?

[Cubswin11]

Saunders

Loosen

Conway

 

Tim Saunders has done pretty well and is supposed to have a pretty good approach at the plate.

 

2012 Season

AVG OBP SLG

CUB AZL .493 .532. .690

DAY FSL .310 .362 .381

PEO MID .321 .380 .481

Minors .381 .431 .536

 

 

Is there some doubt on his D? Penaveler seems to be getting more love here. Just wondering why?

He's older (22) "only" played D3 baseball in college so hasn't faced great competition and had crazy BABIP's at all three stops last year. .552 in AZL, .400 in FSL, .433 in PEO. Plus his K% increased with every move up.

 

I think he's an okay prospect (at where we are in voting process though) and will probably be voting for him soon.

[Guest]

Saunders

Loosen

Conway

 

Tim Saunders has done pretty well and is supposed to have a pretty good approach at the plate.

 

2012 Season

AVG OBP SLG

CUB AZL .493 .532. .690

DAY FSL .310 .362 .381

PEO MID .321 .380 .481

Minors .381 .431 .536

 

 

Is there some doubt on his D? Penaveler seems to be getting more love here. Just wondering why?

He's older (22) "only" played D3 baseball in college so hasn't faced great competition and had crazy BABIP's at all three stops last year. .552 in AZL, .400 in FSL, .433 in PEO. Plus his K% increased with every move up.

 

I think he's an okay prospect (at where we are in voting process though) and will probably be voting for him soon.

 

Penalver is strong defensively at shortstopwith potential to be an elite defender all while there are questions about Saunders' defensive position.

 

I actually have no problem with his DIII background as it has been noted by Baseball America that last year's draft was a good year for DIII prospects and Saunders has some legitimate tools. The BABIP and age are the biggest red flags; for me, Saunders needs to keep his success up this year for me to get behind him as a prospect.

[Guest]

I went Loosen / Hatley / Penalver.

[Bilbo161]

Saunders

Loosen

Conway

 

Tim Saunders has done pretty well and is supposed to have a pretty good approach at the plate.

 

2012 Season

AVG OBP SLG

CUB AZL .493 .532. .690

DAY FSL .310 .362 .381

PEO MID .321 .380 .481

Minors .381 .431 .536

 

 

Is there some doubt on his D? Penaveler seems to be getting more love here. Just wondering why?

He's older (22) "only" played D3 baseball in college so hasn't faced great competition and had crazy BABIP's at all three stops last year. .552 in AZL, .400 in FSL, .433 in PEO. Plus his K% increased with every move up.

 

I think he's an okay prospect (at where we are in voting process though) and will probably be voting for him soon.

 

Penalver is strong defensively at shortstopwith potential to be an elite defender all while there are questions about Saunders' defensive position.

 

I actually have no problem with his DIII background as it has been noted by Baseball America that last year's draft was a good year for DIII prospects and Saunders has some legitimate tools. The BABIP and age are the biggest red flags; for me, Saunders needs to keep his success up this year for me to get behind him as a prospect.

 

So he's a Bruno type guy without a position? No wonder I like him. :-)

[davell]

Hatley falls into the same category as Struck did for me: The FO didn't think enough of him to put on the 40 man and no team thought enough of him to pick him up either. Raley, who I think pretty little of, is still on the 40 man. If the FO evidently thinks he's a better prospect than those two, then I'm buying they see something in him that translates moreso than whatever Struck or Hatley has.

[CubsWin]

Hatley falls into the same category as Struck did for me: The FO didn't think enough of him to put on the 40 man and no team thought enough of him to pick him up either. Raley, who I think pretty little of, is still on the 40 man. If the FO evidently thinks he's a better prospect than those two, then I'm buying they see something in him that translates moreso than whatever Struck or Hatley has.

I think what they see in Raley that they don't see in Struck or Hatley is left-handedness.

 

Southpaws are indeed rare, which I guess you could factor into their value as a prospect and, thus, rank a lefty higher simply by virtue of them being a lefty. But we're at #41, and at this point this is all about who has a better ceiling. In a purely logical discussion about the value of a AAA 23-25 year old who hopes to stick around in the majors for a while versus a 17-18 year old IFA shortstop with a chance to be somebody, you could probably make a decent case for the AAA player. But, for me, logic left this discussion after the top 20 players. And so, I'm bringing the sexy back with guys who could actually be somebody still...

 

Carlos Penalver

Frandy de la Rosa

Josh Conway

[craig]

Hatley falls into the same category as Struck did for me: The FO didn't think enough of him to put on the 40 man and no team thought enough of him to pick him up either. Raley, who I think pretty little of, is still on the 40 man. If the FO evidently thinks he's a better prospect than those two, then I'm buying they see something in him that translates moreso than whatever Struck or Hatley has.

 

I thought Arizona Phil had mentioned some rule regarding how quickly guys can be derostered. Such that Rusin, for example, couldn't be removed from 40-man until late in spring training? Anybody remember of understand either the rule or the logic behind it? I'm not sure I get it; if Rusin can't be derostered for a while, why were they able to deroster Believeau? And where does Raley stand, the Beliveau side (they could if they wanted) or the Rusin side (can't yet....)? Anybody know?

 

I'm wondering whether Raley is on because they value him more, or if they just can't take him off yet, but may do so soon?

 

Also, derostering is riskier than not Rule-5-ing. By exposing Hatley, a selecting team would have needed to keep him on 25-man. If they deroster Raley, a team could just put him on their 40-man, but could then option him to the minors.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I thought it was either AZ Phil or one of the PSD guys who said Rusin or Raley (I think Raley but it might have been both) couldn't be taken off the 40-man until sometime in ST or even not until after the season started. IDK what the rule(s) were surrounding it but it's right that one or both of those guys couldn't be takend off the 40 man at the time the decisions had to be made to drop guys to make room for the FA additions.