2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Chris Crawford draft board 3.0: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/the-board-2014-volume-iii/

 

If I’m being honest, the top 11 or so wasn’t difficult for me to fill out; these guys have separated themselves as the best players in the draft and outside of outrageous bonus demands or injuries, they are first round locks.

 

Once again, Derek Fisher and Dylan Cease are left off because of their respective injuries, as has Cobi Johnson.

 

1. Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral HS (San Diego, CA)

Aiken continues to impress over his senior year, and at this point I’d be more surprised if he wasn’t a top five pick than if he was, and he could be the first prep left-hander to go 1.1 since Brien Taylor in 1993.

2. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (TX)

Kolek hasn’t been quite as dominant statistically as he was in early March, but he still shows a huge fastball and above-average secondary offerings from imposing size.

3. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina St.

Rodon was 4th on my list until his outing on Friday night against Duke, where he showed the dominating stuff we’ve been looking to see all year. I can’t put him over Kolek until I see it consistently. Oh, and his coach should be ashamed of himself for allowing him to throw that many pitches. Reprehensible.

4. Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway HS (SC)

I am higher on Holmes than the industry seems to be — and I readily admit that there isn’t much projection left in his arm, but with a plus-plus fastball, plus curve and above-average change with good feel for pitching? There doesn’t need to be very much.

5. Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA)

If Jackson was a lock to stick behind the plate, I’d have him in the top three, but more than likely he’s going to end up in the outfield which diminishes his value ever so slightly. He’s still the best prep hitter in this class, though. 

6. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

7. Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

8. Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (Orlando, FL)

9. Bradley Zimmer, OF, U. San Francisco

10. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Sanger HS (CA)

11. Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU

[craig]

Opinion Question:

21+wild (Beede) vs 18+control (Holmes).

 

Which is more likely, that 21+wild finds control, or that 18+control's arm survives till 21?

 

(Once 18+control hits 21, then presumably both guys have the same injury risk after age 21.)

[Guest]

Tyler Kolek has a 100-pitch/7-inning cap and only pitches every 7th day.

[Guest]

Opinion Question:

21+wild (Beede) vs 18+control (Holmes).

 

Which is more likely, that 21+wild finds control, or that 18+control's arm survives till 21?

 

(Once 18+control hits 21, then presumably both guys have the same injury risk after age 21.)

 

I'm not the biggest Beede fan around so I'd easily take Holmes given the choice.

[Guest]

Opinion Question:

21+wild (Beede) vs 18+control (Holmes).

 

Which is more likely, that 21+wild finds control, or that 18+control's arm survives till 21?

 

(Once 18+control hits 21, then presumably both guys have the same injury risk after age 21.)

I'll take the 18 year old every day.

[Guest]

@TGold_PG: 2014 Alex Jackson (San Diego, CA) just broke 2-2 tie in #SDLions tourney, connecting on towering HR. Longest I've seen this spring #MLBDraft

 

@billazbbphotog: After a K and F9 in 1st two ABs, Alex Jackson crushes one over LF fence for Rancho Bernardo in Lions tournament. #mlbdraft

[Guest]

Stealing from PSD

 

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/4/4/5482816/under-the-lights-in-shepherd-a-firsthand-look-at-top-hs-pitcher-tyler

 

Right on schedule, the game started officially at 6:30 p.m. After peppering the catcher with pitches in the low-to-mid 90s in warmups, Kolek turned up the heat in the top of the first. My eyes darted back and forth from the mound to the sea of radar guns, and the hype surrounding Kolek was completely validated. The Tarkington hitters stood in tough but could not touch the 6-5 right-hander's heat. The guns were registering pitches at 97 and 98 repeatedly, with one fireball coming in at a round 100 mph.

 

The triple-digit heater led to a chorus of hushed wows and I saw one scout rush to send a text to document the event. The first two hitters for Tarkington went down on strikes, and I began to wonder if anyone would put the ball in play against Kolek as he continued to hang in the high 90s. That question was quickly answered by Tarkington's No. 3 hitter, who managed to smack a routine grounder to second base that was handled with ease to end the inning.

 

In the second and third innings, Kolek continued to look utterly dominant. He rarely strayed from his fastball, and struck out all six batters that came to the plate in the two frames. His mammoth fastball continued to hang between 95 and 97, with few pitches coming in at less than 94 mph. He worked quickly and confidently, pounding the zone relentlessly with heat like an 18-year-old Jonathan Gray.

 

As the game wore on he had some slight command wobbles and ended up hitting three batters, the first drilling a wiry infielder on the arm at a scorching 96 mph. The other two plunks came on offspeed pitches that seemed to get away from Tyler, but he managed smiles as he met with the catcher in attempts to settle down. He did just that, and by the end of his outing he had racked up a ridiculous thirteen punchouts in just five innings, allowing no baserunners outside of the players hit by pitches. Not a single ball left the infield. Tyler had put on an absolute show, and when he left the mound, the scouts funneled out of the ballpark, no doubt thoroughly impressed with the young fireballer's performance- I certainly was.

 

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/4/7/5586272/phillies-2014-draft-preview-tyler-kolek-rhp

 

Others are bigger fans of Kolek than I am. I'll admit, you can't teach 6'5" and you can't teach 100 mph. Still, I find other guys available with better present stuff and better present control (Rodon, Beede, Hoffman, Aiken). Beede may be a good case study here as he struggled with Command early in his College career and has really ironed out his issues of late. The same is possible for Kolek. Plus Kolek has a workhorse build that suggest his floor might be a #2/3 Starter with a strong GroundBall rate. For me, I just see a few things I'm not fond of in his mechanics and any GM will need to trust his development staff to fix the flaws and refine the secondary offerings he hasn't had to use much in High School.

 

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/4/15/5604888/phillies-2014-draft-preview-brady-aiken-lhp

 

There's a ton to love about Aiken, he's a High School Lefty who 3 months ago was known most to scouts for having far advanced pitchability and control, with a middling fastball that showed promise. Then Aiken showed up in 2014 and his Fastball was no longer a middling offering in the high-80's, it was suddenly a beast he could throw low to mid 90's with an ability to rear back and unleash a 97mph Fastball on occasion. Well, now that's much more interesting and it's drawn comparisons to none other than Clayton Kershaw. Aiken is a near finished product for a High Schooler. He may add a few more pounds to a 6'4" 200 lb frame and maybe with it a mile or two on his Fastball, but mid-90's is plenty for a Lefthander.

 

Something else that changed is that for 2 years, the near unanimous opinion was rock solid that Carlos Rodon would be the #1 pick, everyone else was fighting for Second. Half of that is still true, everyone is still fighting for Second, but there's a different Lefty likely locked in as the top pick. Part of this is due to Rodon struggling this year (I have some injury concerns, as the Wolfpack kind of overused Rodon, their only reliable Pitcher last year, on the road to Omaha. He threw several complete games, pitched through the 10th in a game against UNC in the ACC Championship and worked on short rest a few times in Omaha. Rodon has sen his velocity dip 3-4 mph this Spring and his command is not as sharp), but a large part is due to Aiken just blossoming into a true Ace prospect and a kid who could ascend quickly through a system for a High Schooler (it's not a stretch to say he could probably pitch with some success against Major Leaguers with his present stuff).

[Guest]

Perfect Game's Alan Simpson with a pretty lengthy piece on the draft: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9746

 

“Aiken really separated himself with the way he perfomed in a couple of outings,” an American League crosschecker said. “He had great stuff with his fastball touching 96-97 to go with an even more dominant breaking ball. He really stood out with his ability to command all his pitches, along with his excellent feel for pitching. Right now, he’s a pretty clear No. 1 for me.”

 

The 6-foot-6, 240-pound Kolek has been even more electrifying than Aiken with his steady diet of triple-digit fastballs, and opened the 2014 season by hurling 18 straight hitless innings. But he is not considered as polished a product overall as Aiken, and Aiken has the perceived additional advantage of being lefthanded.

 

Through his first 26 innings this spring for San Diego’s Cathedral Catholic High, Aiken is 5-0, 0.54 with four walks and 48 strikeouts, while Kolek has gone 3-0, 0.31 with 48 strikeouts in 22 innings for Shepherd High. He had allowed just two hits and a single walk.

 

But not everyone is willing to concede the top spot in this year’s draft just yet to Aiken, or even Kolek, who would become the first prep righthander ever selected No. 1 overall in the draft’s 50-year history if the Astros were to stay close to home and tab a local product with the top pick.

 

“Aiken and Kolek have clearly helped themselves this spring, no question,” a National League crosschecker said, “but I will be shocked if Rodon doesn’t go No. 1.”

[Guest]

@TGold_PG: 2014 LHP Brady Aiken (Cardiff by the Sea, CA) K's 1st 2 batters faced, works around 2 out E-9. 91-94, 73-77 CB, 85 CH. #MLBDraft

 

@TGold_PG: Aiken sharper in 2nd, K'd side swinging. Better snap & feel to CB @ 77-79. One nasty CH @ 86 w good sinking life, flashed a cutter @ 87

 

@TGold_PG: Aileen's day is done after 4 2/3 IP. 4 unearned runs thanks to 5 E's behind him. 7 K, 2 BB.

[cubsclapp]

 

@TGold_PG: Aileen's day is done after 4 2/3 IP. 4 unearned runs thanks to 5 E's behind him. 7 K, 2 BB.

Gotta love autocorrect.

[Guest]

Alex Jackson fluff piece from a small local paper

 

http://www.pomeradonews.com/2014/04/16/athlete-of-the-week-rancho-bernardo-highs-jackson-among-most-feared-hitters-in-nation/

[Guest]

@kileymcd: ECU righty Jeff Hoffman has been 95-97 early on tonight w/heat in the building from both Chicago clubs, including Theo Epstein & Jed Hoyer.

 

@kileymcd: Carlos Rodon goes tomorrow night 1 hour west, so many scouts at Hoffman will double up. Should also be good group w/me tonight at Nola/Ellis

[Guest]

Hoffman with 13 Ks through 6 scoreless.

[Rex Buckingham]

Hoffman with 13 Ks through 6 scoreless.

 

Man it would be great if he gets back in the form he showed in the Cape Cod league

[Guest]

@keithlaw: Kolek 94-97 mph in the first. Threw one CH. @jluhnow in the house along with the Cubs' scouting director.

[Guest]

@FPilierePG: Heard Jeff Hoffman was electric in front of some heavy hitting talent evaluators today. 16 Ks, 1 BB in 8 innings. 3 hits allowed

[Guest]

@kileymcd: Rodon ticked up last week & I'm told Hoffman was the mythical Cape Hoffman I won't shut up about. 20-25 scouts w/CHW+CHC heavy hitters there

 

@kileymcd: Had a few convos about that this week MT @whitesoxfanjim Any idea of Rodon's bonus demands? Could it be an Appel situation of HOU passing?

 

@kileymcd: To be clear the top of the draft is still very hazy. Various publication rankings may make it look like consensus has formed, but it hasn't.

 

@kileymcd: And in a few weeks I'll take a stab at lining these guys up, but I'm glad it isn't that time yet because it keeps changing every weekend.

[Guest]

@ECUBaseball: Big thanks to @katjessickk on getting these Theo Epstein photos for us today at Clark-LeClair Stadium. #ECUndaunted http://t.co/nrHWGlLR4J

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

@FPilierePG: Heard Jeff Hoffman was electric in front of some heavy hitting talent evaluators today. 16 Ks, 1 BB in 8 innings. 3 hits allowed

 

http://i.imgur.com/Lu8fMz1.gif

[davell]

I'm really interested to start hearing bonus demands.

[weis21]

Really, really hoping Hoffman falls to 4. Pretty sure I would feel that was even if I weren't biased.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Guest]

Really, really hoping Hoffman falls to 4. Pretty sure I would feel that was even if I weren't biased.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

I don't think that'll be an issue.

 

I'd be fine with him if Kolek and Aiken are gone. I want to include Rodon too but the fearmongers in here have me worried about his health.

[Guest]

@keithlaw: Sounds like Jeff Hoffman of East Carolina was at his best tonight with Epstein/Hoyer plus the White Sox' scouting director in the house

[Guest]

@sahadevsharma: Source confirms Kerry Wood was watching Tyler Kolek for Cubs yesterday. Former Texas high school phenom watching the next big thing.

[Tryptamine]

Just reading the tea leaves, but it seems to me that the Cubs might have Kolek and Hoffman as their top 2 right now. Surprised there hasn't been more news about them and Aiken.