Who is the #33 Prospect for the Cubs?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Please vote for the Cubs #33 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

 

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Tuesday.

 

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #33, #34 and #35. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

 

Results so far:

 

#1: Javier Baez

#2: Jorge Soler

#3: Albert Almora

#4: Arodys Vizcaino

#5: Dan Vogelbach

#6: Brett Jackson

#7: Juan Paniagua

#8: Christian Villanueva

#9: Dillon Maples

#10: Josh Vitters

#11: Pierce Johnson

#12: Junior Lake

#13: Jeimer Candelario

#14: Duane Underwood

#15: Matt Szczur

#16: Arismendy Alcantara

#17: Ronald Torreyes

#18: Marco Hernandez

#19: Gioskar Amaya

#20: Alberto Cabrera

#21: Logan Watkins

#22: Rob Whitenack

#23: Barrett Loux

#24: Ben Wells

#25: Paul Blackburn

#26: Hector Rondon

#27: Tony Zych

#28: Jae-Hoon Ha

#29: Trey McNutt

#30: Steve Bruno

#31: Michael Jensen

#32: Trey Martin

[davell]

Scott, Arias, and McNeil for me.

[Cubswin11]

McNeil

Scott

Penalver

[craig]

Scott

Arias

McNeil

 

A lot of the guys left have known limitations. These guys are new enough so that I can imagine whatever I want. Soon enough they may confirm that they're as or more limited than other more known guys outside the top 30. But for now I can imagine that with time they'll grow or get coached into both the velocity, the repertoire, and the command required to end up being good.

Edited February 11, 2013 by craig

[Bilbo161]

Arias, Scott, Loosen

 

But it wouldn't take much to change my mind.

 

Want to put Carlos A. Rodrigez in next time?

[Guest]

Arias, Scott, Loosen

 

But it wouldn't take much to change my mind.

 

Want to put Carlos A. Rodrigez in next time?

 

Sure.

[Guest]

I went Arias, Scott & Rosario.

 

As toonster noted last time, Rosario was a shoe-in for top 25 before his injury last summer; since it doesn't seem to be a severe injury, he really should be rated before we get to some even longer shots.

[Cubswin11]

Should Tim Saunders start to be on the poll? I know he's older/put up a crazy BABIP, but if we are looking at doing top 50, he probably has a place somewhere in there.

[CubsInNC]

I guess it's time to start justifying my continued support for Pugliese, as to me it's less outlandish to start thinking about him in this range. This clump of prospects, in general from 30 down to at least 50, have little separating them. Splitting already split hairs, is essentially what divides them. I don't know why, because the results haven't exactly been there for Pugliese, and the scouting hype was and is minimal. He was slightly below average last year in Boise, but was also 2 years younger than average for the league. He strikes me as the type that, if he can last 6 years in our minor league system (not get stashed for a year after his fifth year), he'll actually be a decent contributor during the "cheap years" on a MLB staff. And to me, this level of prospects are the ones who might still get there, some of them on this list, I've written off, despite the fact that in 4+ years of development, a lot can happen. If I had to guess I'd go for middle relief (woohoo), but if he made it as a #5 starter, I wouldn't be surprised. Mechanics look fluid and repeatable, doesn't look like an arm injury waiting to happen. There's no great statistical basis for this, so I find no fault if anyone thinks I'm way off base here. As I likely am.

[toonsterwu]

CubsinNC, I get the argument you are making. But I'd counter with, well, if his ceiling isn't high (and you note that he could be a 5th starter, but you'd guess middle relief) then why take a guy so far away versus, say, a Nick Struck, Brooks Raley, or Chris Rusin type, low ceiling guys who are in the upper levels.

 

Anyhow, I voted Rosario/Arias/Struck. As Raisin noted above, Rosario was a solid bet to be top 25/30 before the injury. I really haven't heard anything to suggest that this is something serious. If it is, I'd drop him like a rock, but if not, he should get on in this area, IMO. And without hearing anything too negative, I'll assume that it isn't that serious.

 

Arias' upside is one of the highest in the system (I think you could argue that his SP upside is one of the top 5 in the system). He's also dang raw. But ... the upside is worth the gamble here, IMO.

 

I'll still stick with Struck. 2 solid pitches, 3 pitch arsenal, in the upper levels, with velocity in the low 90's and touching mid-90's. I wonder if he might be better in the pen (if he could ramp up the fastball some more). Improved command would really sharpen things up. By no means does this mean I have any high expectation for Struck - I think he's a 5th starter type if he is given a look in that role in the bigs, and I'm not sold he's a late inning arm in the pen. Still ... compared to the raw arms in the lower levels or the upper level arms without a lot on the fastball, and with his solid enough performance track record, it works for me here.

[Cubswin11]

Is Marcus Hatley anything more than minor league filler/majore league bullpen fodder, he will be 25 this year and has pitched under 20IP in AAA? He's a pretty big guy at 6'5" 220. He's had good-decent SO/9 numbers, looks like he has some control issues, higher than average BB/9 (is this a result of good stuff but not refining it yet? Or just wildness with average stuff?) He doesn't give up many HR's, only 19 in over 300 career minor league innings.

[Guest]

Is Marcus Hatley anything more than minor league filler/majore league bullpen fodder, he will be 25 this year and has pitched under 20IP in AAA? He's a pretty big guy at 6'5" 220. He's had good-decent SO/9 numbers, looks like he has some control issues, higher than average BB/9 (is this a result of good stuff but not refining it yet? Or just wildness with average stuff?) He doesn't give up many HR's, only 19 in over 300 career minor league innings.

 

He made BA's top 30 list, I think he has solid 8th inning set-up potential. But age/injuries have been/are an issue.

[CubsInNC]

CubsinNC, I get the argument you are making. But I'd counter with, well, if his ceiling isn't high (and you note that he could be a 5th starter, but you'd guess middle relief) then why take a guy so far away versus, say, a Nick Struck, Brooks Raley, or Chris Rusin type, low ceiling guys who are in the upper levels.

 

toonsterwu,

Very valid points. I'm not much of a believer in any of those 3, even though they are much, much closer. I don't think any of them will last their 3 pre-arb (cheap) years in the majors, let alone arbitration years. I'm hedging my bets with Pugliese, in that if he makes it as a middle reliever, I still think he sticks the full 6 years. To me, that makes him a better prospect because of the duration of the (projected) ML career, not immediate value. While I project him as a middle reliever, that's because most of the more involved minor league posters here, have forgotten more about baseball, and prospect development than I know. So, rather than say that I expect him to make it as a starter, I project middle relief, as that will likely be how he breaks into ML anyway. But his 2nd or 3rd year, I'd expect he's a contender for a #5.

[craig]

Hatley was an outfielder, he converted to pitching with the Cubs. AS with most converts, his velocity profiles much better than his control or his age.

[toonsterwu]

Hatley has a very good slider. When on, his fastball/slider combination can be lethal, so as Raisin notes, there is some late inning potential.