Cubs after Anibal Sanchez? (Signs with Tiger 5/$80mil)

[neely crenshaw]

We aren't trying to argue that the cubs are better or worse with Rizzo. I am simply saying that you can not simply say we are better at first base this year because we have Rizzo for a full season because Lahair put up those stats.

[weis21]

We aren't trying to argue that the cubs are better or worse with Rizzo. I am simply saying that you can not simply say we are better at first base this year because we have Rizzo for a full season because Lahair put up those stats.

The Cubs will be better at first base this year because Rizzo is a far superior player than LaHair. What is your argument?

 

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[jersey cubs fan]

We aren't trying to argue that the cubs are better or worse with Rizzo. I am simply saying that you can not simply say we are better at first base this year because we have Rizzo for a full season because Lahair put up those stats.

The Cubs will be better at first base this year because Rizzo is a far superior player than LaHair. What is your argument?

 

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The argument is that even though Rizzo is clearly the better player, the 2013 Cubs are not likely to get improved production over the 2012 Cubs at 1B because the 2012 Cubs actually got lucky with production from LaHair for a while.

 

Also, lots of people seem to be comparing 2012 stats simply with the stats of the guy most likely to start at that position in 2013 then saying it must be better. It doesn't work that way. The stats of all the backups affect the total, and all the backups suck. Castro is the only one who really accounted for all the production at his position, and he already did a very good job there, providing top 4 offense among NL teams at SS. I'm not sure the Cubs can reasonably expect to get much better there this year.

[Sammy Sofa]

But aren't the stats saying that while LaHair and Rizzo's stats can be, in total, seen as similar, Rizzo was the more valuable player? In that he actually contributed to more wins than LaHair with his offense and defense? I know that's overly simplistc, but everything (and I'm just using BR today) seems to be weighing productive value much more heavily in favor of Rizzo.

[neely crenshaw]

My argument is that if we are looking at our offensive performance at first base and projecting Rizzo's stats for a whole season they would basically be doubled.

so he projects to: .285 .342 .463 .805 with 30 hrs.

last year Lahair at first base hit .284 .364 .526 .890 with 13 hrs. That is only for those months not his season.

To get the performance of the cubs first basemen last year it would be LaHair's first half plus Rizzo's 2nd half.

Which would basically be .285 .353 .490 .845 with 28 hrs

 

I'll be the first to say Lahair will never do that again but those are the stats of last years first basemen and if you want to say we will have more production this year, Rizzo has to better those stats, He may but I think most would be happy if he matches his line from last year which would be slightly worse.

[neely crenshaw]

My argument is that if we are looking at our offensive performance at first base and projecting Rizzo's stats for a whole season they would basically be doubled.

so he projects to: .285 .342 .463 .805 with 30 hrs.

last year Lahair at first base hit .284 .364 .526 .890 with 13 hrs. That is only for those months not his season.

To get the performance of the cubs first basemen last year it would be LaHair's first half plus Rizzo's 2nd half.

Which would basically be .285 .353 .490 .845 with 28 hrs

 

I'll be the first to say Lahair will never do that again but those are the stats of last years first basemen and if you want to say we will have more production this year, Rizzo has to better those stats, He may but I think most would be happy if he matches his line from last year which would be slightly worse.

 

nuts I really wasn't meaning value that's clearly Rizzo but if we talk about improved performance we can't dismiss what Lahair did.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not dismissing it. He basically has one month of amazing performance (about the first 6-7 weeks of the season of relatively consecutive quality performance); I think a full year of Rizzo at first will contribute to more Cubs wins (offensively and defensively) than the Frankenstein's monster they had out there last year.

[neely crenshaw]

If you are not dismissing the stats, then how do we account for our improvement if Rizzo's stats are basically the same?

The 2nd half is a push, as far any projections goes, It's Rizzo vs Rizzo.

 

So you have to evaluate the first 12 weeks of Lahair being a starter at 1b. It's actually less because Rizzo took over in June. How Lahair fell apart in july, august and september is irrelevent because Rizzo was our first basemen at that time.

so far everyone agrees that Lahairs first monster month was better than anything Rizzo put up.

Rizzo's 3rd month, and his averages were much better than Lahair's "june swoon". So it has to be close in looking at how many more wins either performance meant.

So then the 2nd month for each is left. If you go by just 2nd month to 2nd month Lahair's was better, BUT since it's 2013 we will use Rizzo's average monthly stats. So Rizzo's is slightly better in that month.

(L- May stats) .250 .350 .443 . 793 5 hrs to (R average stats) .285 .342 .463 .805 and 5 hrs

 

To me it looks like as far as the performance goes, it's 1 month to Lahair, 1month to Rizzo and 1 month pretty dead even.

I mean over a month's time, an improvement of .020 slugging and .012 of ops probably isn't even much more than 1 extra bag and can't really be looked at as a game changer.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

This probably won't add anything to the Rizzo-LaHair discussion, but it should also be noted that Rizzo's defense for the first half will also be superior to whatever LaHair did.

[Sammy Sofa]

This probably won't add anything to the Rizzo-LaHair discussion, but it should also be noted that Rizzo's defense for the first half will also be superior to whatever LaHair did.

 

Right. Basically it's that, coupled with Rizzo being a much better ballplayer. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him have a breakout year. I don't think he's going to annhilate last year's 1B production, but I don't think it's a stretch at all to think it's likely he surpasses it. neely's projections seem to just be working off of the idea that Rizzo will simply put up numbers comparable to last season extrapolated to a full season, as if he's not going to develop and improve.

[Sammy Sofa]

(L- May stats) .250 .350 .443 . 793 5 hrs to (R average stats) .285 .342 .463 .805 and 5 hrs

 

LaHair's May stats are inflated by the carryover of how hot he was in April; he fell off pretty dramatically the last couple of weeks or so to really drag his numbers down. Far more importantly and relevant to this debate, Rizzo's average stats have a good chance of improve due to his talent and that he's still a developing player. It's faulty to approach his 2012 numbers like they're necessarily indicative of the player he'll be. I don't think it's a stretch to think he could be a .850+ OPS player next year.

[Guest]

We won't have to platoon Rizzo with baker to prop up his performance. That seems to be overlooked here.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Most of the difference between Rizzo and LaHair last season in terms of fWAR was defense and baserunning.

[jersey cubs fan]

Most of the difference between Rizzo and LaHair last season in terms of fWAR was defense and baserunning.

 

The least reliably meaningful portions of the equation

[neely crenshaw]

We won't have to platoon Rizzo with baker to prop up his performance. That seems to be overlooked here.

that would be a great point but it's not really true.

lahair did not play in 5 of the first 50 games (april and may)

and played but did not start 5 others. I wouldn't exactly call that a platoon.

even in june he did not play in 4 games, and didn't start 6 others. (27 total games) at the end of June Rizzo took over first base

after that he basically was a part-timer.

 

I think you guys are looking at this the wrong way. I am certainly not trying to say Lahair is as good or better. Rizzo is the better player, the team is better with him no doubt. BUT

If we are trying to point out where the team will win more games this season over last you can't just say we will be better because of Rizzo's performance at first. The stats we had in 2012 have already happened. To improve on paper, someone has to get those stats, and do better in order to win more games in theory.

This is all theoretical but if we can't just say we will win more games because we now have Rizzo playing first for the full season because Lahair was a stud for 5-6 weeks.

The team is better, but to say we will win more games than 2012, the performance that happened has to be replaced.

So I am just saying that with what we can expect from Rizzo over the full year, it will be pretty much exactly the same as we got out of first base last season statistically.

The main reason I say that is because the stats for our first basemen were almost identical in the first and second half.

[neely crenshaw]

(L- May stats) .250 .350 .443 . 793 5 hrs to (R average stats) .285 .342 .463 .805 and 5 hrs

 

LaHair's May stats are inflated by the carryover of how hot he was in April; he fell off pretty dramatically the last couple of weeks or so to really drag his numbers down. Far more importantly and relevant to this debate, Rizzo's average stats have a good chance of improve due to his talent and that he's still a developing player. It's faulty to approach his 2012 numbers like they're necessarily indicative of the player he'll be. I don't think it's a stretch to think he could be a .850+ OPS player next year.

 

inflated? those stats are just the games he played in may, not his totals.

I hope Rizzo is an 850+ guy, that being said our first basemen in the first half of the season was .890 ops guy and to be better that has to be replaced.

try to look at it this way

if as a team we hit for .890 ops last year in the first half and this year we hit for a .850 ops, would you guess we will win more games or less?

it does not matter what happened after mid season in this comparison.

 

Also if you look at earlier projections not everyone is as confident that Rizzo's stats will go up this year.

[fromthestretch]

(L- May stats) .250 .350 .443 . 793 5 hrs to (R average stats) .285 .342 .463 .805 and 5 hrs

 

LaHair's May stats are inflated by the carryover of how hot he was in April; he fell off pretty dramatically the last couple of weeks or so to really drag his numbers down. Far more importantly and relevant to this debate, Rizzo's average stats have a good chance of improve due to his talent and that he's still a developing player. It's faulty to approach his 2012 numbers like they're necessarily indicative of the player he'll be. I don't think it's a stretch to think he could be a .850+ OPS player next year.

 

inflated? those stats are just the games he played in may, not his totals.

I hope Rizzo is an 850+ guy, that being said our first basemen in the first half of the season was .890 ops guy and to be better that has to be replaced.

try to look at it this way

if as a team we hit for .890 ops last year in the first half and this year we hit for a .850 ops, would you guess we will win more games or less?

it does not matter what happened after mid season in this comparison.

 

Also if you look at earlier projections not everyone is as confident that Rizzo's stats will go up this year.

 

The Cubs got a .796 OPS out of first base for the 2012 season. If Rizzo can put up an .850 OPS in 2013, that would be an improvement. It becomes a more significant improvement when you factor in defense and base-running.

[Sammy Sofa]

inflated? those stats are just the games he played in may, not his totals.

 

Yes, his May stats are inflated by how he was still good at the beginning of the month and then fell off a cliff in the second half.

 

Look, I think Rizzo is likely going to beat up on the .796 production out of 1B last year and you don't. It's really that simple.

[SABR Gamer]

inflated? those stats are just the games he played in may, not his totals.

 

Yes, his May stats are inflated by how he was still good at the beginning of the month and then fell off a cliff in the second half.

 

Look, I think Rizzo is likely going to beat up on the .796 production out of 1B last year and you don't. It's really that simple.

 

Neely is assuming Rizzo won't improve on his numbers from last year, while almost everyone else is expecting he will by a good amount.

[biittner77]

Most of the difference between Rizzo and LaHair last season in terms of fWAR was defense and baserunning.

 

The least reliably meaningful portions of the equation

 

But potentially very important if they move Barney for more offense at 2nd (at some point) or use Vitters at 3rd.

[neely crenshaw]

yes and no.

I think and hope he will improve.

However, people are applying war stats to show how many more games we will win this. My thought is that war stats do not take into account any natural improvement by a young player. So if we are statistically showing how we will win more games we can't "hope" or "think" because it could just as easily go down. Obviously the more data we have, the better idea we have for what someone will do each year but even that is a "guess"

 

Now as fans we can think and hope these things but that is a different conversation.

I know that some are saying Rizzo will be better, and I hope that is the case, and to be better we need that. We also hoped that Castro would be better last year and he wasn't. I am only trying to be somewhat reasonable about how we will be better this year and on paper it's tough to say.

 

also I am assuming the .796 includes games by baker and others. The split for Rizzo/Lahair at first is closer to .855. Unless you assume that Rizzo will never have a day off and plays 162. Someone will take the games as the back up, and he (the sub) could help or hurt that overall ops number BUT Rizzo's numbers should be compared to the regular starter at first because that's the stat line is his replacing

[neely crenshaw]

(L- May stats) .250 .350 .443 . 793 5 hrs to (R average stats) .285 .342 .463 .805 and 5 hrs

 

LaHair's May stats are inflated by the carryover of how hot he was in April; he fell off pretty dramatically the last couple of weeks or so to really drag his numbers down. Far more importantly and relevant to this debate, Rizzo's average stats have a good chance of improve due to his talent and that he's still a developing player. It's faulty to approach his 2012 numbers like they're necessarily indicative of the player he'll be. I don't think it's a stretch to think he could be a .850+ OPS player next year.

 

For the record:

1st half of May 13 games: 11/41 3 hrs 1 2b .400 ob% .512 slg . 912ops

2nd half of May 14 games 11/42 2hrs 1 2b .347 .429 slg ,776 ops

The difference in ops is 1 more hr and 3 walks

 

Also defense will help, but exactly how many games do we figure we lost in the first 75 because of Lahair defense and base-running?

Obviously it's hard to tell but can it possibly such a huge number that we can count that as an area we will pick up even a few wins if any?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We probably should get a little bit more out of 1b this season, but another problem may be that unlike last year, we have absolutely no depth at the position. Maybe that changes in the next few months, or maybe we get lucky and don't need it.

[neely crenshaw]

I really do hope that is the case but 45 years of being a cub fan makes doubt creep into my thoughts every year at this time...

[Guest]

We probably should get a little bit more out of 1b this season, but another problem may be that unlike last year, we have absolutely no depth at the position. Maybe that changes in the next few months, or maybe we get lucky and don't need it.

Most likely, Vitters is your backup 1B.